arXiv subjects

Christopher Van Arsdale

Publications and source records attributed to Christopher Van Arsdale.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Observational constraints on net radiative forcing confirm aviation contrail warming

Contrail cirrus represents a critical component of aviation's non-CO2 climate impact, but its net radiative forcing, the balance between longwave warming and shortwave cooling, remains poorly constrained by direct observations. As a result, current assessments rely almost exclusively on microphysical models such as CoCiP and global climate simulations. Existing empirical estimates are largely restricted to young, linear tracks, because satellite detection masks have a poor recall of contrails once they spread and merge with natural cirrus, leaving a structural gap in our understanding of long-lived, non-linear contrail cirrus. To address this we use a causal framework that isolates the net radiative contrail effect of flight traffic over the Americas. Building on recent progress that quantified the longwave warming contrail effect using advected flight paths as a proxy for contrails, we expand this continuous treatment approach to capture the highly skewed shortwave cooling impact, delivering a 12-hour lifespan net observational radiative forcing. Our analysis reveals a statistically significant net warming energy forcing of 33.7 (95% CI: 20.8, 47.8) GJ per km flown from April 2019 to April 2020, providing a large-scale empirical quantification of long contrail lifespan impact of the same order as, though somewhat larger than, previous bottom-up simulation estimates. This observational benchmark offers an independent line of evidence on the sign and magnitude of the climate impact of contrails.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2026

Quantification of atmospheric carbon dioxide from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES East)

There is a growing urgency to track greenhouse gasses with the resolution, precision and accuracy needed to support independent verification of $CO_2$ fluxes at local to global scales. The current generation of space-based sensors, however, only provides sparse observations in space and time. This challenge has fueled interest in the potential use of data from existing missions originally developed for other applications to infer global greenhouse gas variability. The Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) onboard the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-East), operational since 2017, provides full coverage of much of the western hemisphere at 10-minute intervals from geostationary orbit across 16 spectral channels at an approximately 2 km$^2$ spatial resolution. Here, we leverage this high spatial coverage and temporal revisit to develop Deep$XCO_2$, a single-pixel, physics-guided neural network to estimate dry-air column $CO_2$ mole fraction ($XCO_2$). Deep$XCO_2$ employs a time series of GOES-East's 16 spectral bands, ECMWF ERA5 lower tropospheric meteorology, MODIS surface reflectance, solar and satellite viewing geometry, and day of year. The network was trained on collocated GOES-East and OCO-2/OCO-3 observations. Deep$XCO_2$ is able to capture realistic $XCO_2$ variability when compared against a held-out year of OCO-2 and OCO-3 observations, and against observations from the TCCON network. We also present case studies illustrating the use of Deep$XCO_2$ to observe $XCO_2$ enhancements over urban areas and drawdown over agricultural regions. Overall, while the precision of GOES-East derived $XCO_2$ can never rival that of dedicated instruments, the unprecedented combination of contiguous geographic coverage, 10-minute temporal frequency, and multi-year record offers the potential to observe aspects of atmospheric $CO_2$ variability currently unseen from space.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2024

Satellite Sunroof: High-res Digital Surface Models and Roof Segmentation for Global Solar Mapping

The transition to renewable energy, particularly solar, is key to mitigating climate change. Google's Solar API aids this transition by estimating solar potential from aerial imagery, but its impact is constrained by geographical coverage. This paper proposes expanding the API's reach using satellite imagery, enabling global solar potential assessment. We tackle challenges involved in building a Digital Surface Model (DSM) and roof instance segmentation from lower resolution and single oblique views using deep learning models. Our models, trained on aligned satellite and aerial datasets, produce 25cm DSMs and roof segments. With ~1m DSM MAE on buildings, ~5deg roof pitch error and ~56% IOU on roof segmentation, they significantly enhance the Solar API's potential to promote solar adoption.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2023

OpenContrails: Benchmarking Contrail Detection on GOES-16 ABI

Contrails (condensation trails) are line-shaped ice clouds caused by aircraft and are likely the largest contributor of aviation-induced climate change. Contrail avoidance is potentially an inexpensive way to significantly reduce the climate impact of aviation. An automated contrail detection system is an essential tool to develop and evaluate contrail avoidance systems. In this paper, we present a human-labeled dataset named OpenContrails to train and evaluate contrail detection models based on GOES-16 Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) data. We propose and evaluate a contrail detection model that incorporates temporal context for improved detection accuracy. The human labeled dataset and the contrail detection outputs are publicly available on Google Cloud Storage at gs://goes_contrails_dataset.

cs.CV↗