arXiv subjects

Christos Karathanasis

Publications and source records attributed to Christos Karathanasis.

13 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Blinded Mock Data Challenge: Is the Spectral Siren Technique Robust for Measuring the Hubble Constant?

The measurement of the Hubble constant from gravitational wave (GW) sources is one of the independent avenues to shed light on the Hubble tension, which is associated with about an $8\%$ mismatch in the value of the Hubble constant inferred from low-redshift and high-redshift cosmological probes. Such a key measurement is expected from GW sources as it is a direct measurement of the Hubble constant using the luminosity distance without the need for any luminosity distance calibration. However, such a measurement relies strongly on the reliability of the independent inference of the source redshift of the GW source. As a result, it becomes pertinent to gauge the accuracy and precision of techniques in understanding their reliability in inferring redshifts of GW sources. In this work, we show the requirement of the spectral siren technique in knowing the mass distribution of BBHs across cosmic redshifts in order to make a reliable inference of the Hubble constant. We show by a blinded mock data challenge analysis the criticality in capturing the underlying metallicity dependence of the BBH mass distribution and its interplay with time-delay distribution for a robust inference of the Hubble constant using the spectral siren technique. In order to have a reliable measurement of the Hubble constant at the level required to resolve the Hubble tension in the future, the mass distribution of the BBHs needs to be independently inferred at all relevant redshifts with an accuracy less than the statistical uncertainty. Otherwise, a mismatch of the true model and the underlying assumption made in the analysis can lead to a best-fit model for the wrong value of both BBH population parameters as well as the Hubble constant.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2024

Blinded Mock Data Challenge for Gravitational-Wave Cosmology-I: Assessing the Robustness of Methods Using Binary Black Holes Mass Spectrum

Gravitational Wave (GW) sources are standard sirens that provide an independent way to map the cosmic expansion history by combining with an independent redshift measurement either from an electromagnetic counterpart for a bright siren or using different statistical techniques for dark sirens. In this analysis, we perform the first Blinded Mock Data Challenge (\texttt{Blinded-MDC}) to test the robustness in inferring the value of Hubble constant $H_0$ for a dark siren technique which depends on astrophysical mass distribution of Binary Black Holes (BBHs). We have considered different analysis setups for the \texttt{Blinded-MDC} to test both statistical and systematic uncertainties and demonstrate the capabilities in inferring $H_0$ with detector sensitivity as per the fourth observation run of LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA. We find that when the astrophysical population of BBHs matches with the underlying assumption of the model, a cosmological pipeline can recover the injected parameters using the observed mass distribution. However, when the mock mass distribution of the astrophysical population depends slightly on redshift and one is ignorant about it in analyzing the data, it can cause a systematic discrepancy in the inferred value of $H_0$ by about $1.5\sigma$, above the statistical fluctuations due to noise and a limited number of events. In the future, elaborate studies will be required to mitigate systematic uncertainties due to unknown astrophysical complexities. This MDC framework sets the road map for inspecting the precision and accuracy of standard siren cosmology and provides the first insight into the robustness of the population-dependent cosmology inference in a blinded analysis setup.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2023

A novel approach to infer population and cosmological properties with gravitational waves standard sirens and galaxy surveys

Gravitational wave (GW) sources at cosmological distances can be used to probe the expansion rate of the Universe. GWs directly provide a distance estimation of the source but no direct information on its redshift. The optimal scenario to obtain a redshift is through the direct identification of an electromagnetic (EM) counterpart and its host galaxy. With almost 100 GW sources detected without EM counterparts (dark sirens), it is becoming crucial to have statistical techniques able to perform cosmological studies in the absence of EM emission. Currently, only two techniques for dark sirens are used on GW observations: the spectral siren method, which is based on the source-frame mass distribution to estimate conjointly cosmology and the source's merger rate, and the galaxy survey method, which uses galaxy surveys to assign a probabilistic redshift to the source while fitting cosmology. It has been recognized, however, that these two methods are two sides of the same coin. In this paper, we present a novel approach to unify these two methods. We apply this approach to several observed GW events using the \textsc{glade+} galaxy catalog discussing limiting cases. We provide estimates of the Hubble constant, modified gravity propagation effects, and population properties for binary black holes. We also estimate the binary black hole merger rate per galaxy to be $10^{-6}-10^{-5} {\rm yr^{-1}}$ depending on the galaxy catalog hypotheses.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2023

ICAROGW: A python package for inference of astrophysical population properties of noisy, heterogeneous and incomplete observations

We present icarogw 2.0, a pure CPU/GPU python code developed to infer astrophysical and cosmological population properties of noisy, heterogeneous, and incomplete observations. icarogw 2.0 is mainly developed for compact binary coalescence (CBC) population inference with gravitational wave (GW) observations. The code contains several models for masses, spins, and redshift of CBC distributions, and is able to infer population distributions as well as the cosmological parameters and possible general relativity deviations at cosmological scales. We present the theoretical and computational foundations of icarogw 2.0, and we describe how the code can be employed for population and cosmological inference using (i) only GWs, (ii) GWs and galaxy surveys and (iii) GWs with electromagnetic counterparts. We discuss the code performance on Graphical Processing Units (GPUs), finding a gain in computation time of about two orders of magnitudes when more than 100 GW events are involved for the analysis. We validate the code by re-analyzing GW population and cosmological studies, finding very good agreement with previous publications.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2023

Joint cosmological and gravitational-wave population inference using dark sirens and galaxy catalogues

In the absence of numerous gravitational-wave detections with confirmed electromagnetic counterparts, the "dark siren" method has emerged as a leading technique of gravitational-wave cosmology. The method allows redshift information of such events to be inferred statistically from a catalogue of potential host galaxies. Due to selection effects, dark siren analyses necessarily depend on the mass distribution of compact objects and the evolution of their merger rate with redshift. Informative priors on these quantities will impact the inferred posterior constraints on the Hubble constant ($H_0$). It is thus crucial to vary these unknown distributions during an $H_0$ inference. This was not possible in earlier analyses due to the high computational cost, restricting them to either excluding galaxy catalogue information, or fixing the gravitational-wave population mass distribution and risking introducing bias to the $H_0$ measurement. This paper introduces a significantly enhanced version of the Python package GWCOSMO, which allows joint estimation of cosmological and compact binary population parameters. This thereby ensures the analysis is now robust to a major source of potential bias. The gravitational-wave events from the Third Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalogue are reanalysed with the GLADE+ galaxy catalogue, and an updated, more reliable measurement of $H_0=69^{+12}_{-7}$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$ is found (maximum a posteriori probability and 68% highest density interval). This improved method will enable cosmological analyses with future gravitational-wave detections to make full use of the information available (both from galaxy catalogues and the compact binary population itself), leading to promising new independent bounds on the Hubble constant.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2023

GWSim: Python package for creating mock GW samples for different astrophysical populations and cosmological models of binary black holes

Precision cosmology with gravitational wave (GW) sources requires a deeper understanding of the interplay between GW source population and cosmological parameters governing the dynamics of the Universe. With the swift increase in GW detections, it is necessary to develop a tool for exploring many aspects of cosmology and fundamental physics; this tools allows to simulate GW mock samples for several populations and cosmological models. We have developed a new code called GWSim, which allows us to make a large sample of GW mock events from a broad range of configurations, while varying the cosmology, the merger rate, and the GW source parameters (i.e. mass and spin distributions in particular) for a given network of GW detectors. A large sample of simulated mock GW events will be useful for improving our understanding of the statistical properties of the distribution of GW sources, as long as it is detectable for a given detector noise and an astrophysical and cosmological model. It will also be useful to compare simulated samples with the observed distribution of the GW sources from data and infer the underlying population of the GW source parameters and cosmology. We restricted the cosmology to spatially flat universes, including models with varying dark energy equation of state. The GWSim code provides each mock event with a position in the sky and a redshift; these values can be those of random host galaxies coming from an isotropic and homogeneous simulated Universe or a user-supplied galaxy catalog. We used realistic detector configurations of the LIGO and Virgo network of detectors to demonstrate the performance of this code for the latest observation runs and the upcoming observation run.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2023

Analysis of a subsolar-mass compact binary candidate from the second observing run of Advanced LIGO

We perform an exhaustive follow-up analysis of a subsolar-mass (SSM) gravitational wave (GW) candidate reported by Phukon et al. from the second observing run of Advanced LIGO. This candidate has a reported signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of $8.6$ and false alarm rate of $0.41$ yr which are too low to claim a clear gravitational-wave origin. When improving on the search by using more accurate waveforms, extending the frequency range from 45 Hz down to 20 Hz, and removing a prominent blip glitch, we find that the posterior distribution of the network SNR lies mostly below the search value, with the $90\%$ confidence interval being $7.94^{+0.70}_{-1.05}$. Assuming that the origin of the signal is a compact binary coalescence (CBC), the secondary component is $m_2 = \text{$0.76^{+0.50}_{-0.14}$} M_\odot$, with $m_2 < 1 M_\odot$ at $84\%$ confidence level, suggesting an unexpectedly light neutron star or a black hole of primordial or exotic origin. The primary mass would be $m_1 = \text{$4.71^{+1.57}_{-2.18}$} M_\odot$, likely in the hypothesized lower mass gap and the luminosity distance is measured to be $D_{\rm L}=124^{+82}_{-48}$Mpc. We then probe the CBC origin hypothesis by performing the signal coherence tests, obtaining a log Bayes factor of $4.96 \pm 0.13$ for the coherent vs. incoherent hypothesis. We demonstrate the capability of performing a parameter estimation follow-up on real data for an SSM candidate with moderate SNR. The improved sensitivity of O4 and subsequent LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA observing runs could make it possible to observe similar signals, if present, with a higher SNR and a more precise measurement of the parameters of the binary.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2023

Binary black holes population and cosmology in new lights: Signature of PISN mass and formation channel in GWTC-3

The mass, spin, and merger rate distribution of the binary black holes (BBHs) across cosmic redshifts provide a unique way to shed light on their formation channel. Along with the redshift dependence of the BBH merger rate, the mass distribution of BBHs can also exhibit redshift dependence due to different formation channels and dependence on the metallicity of the parent stars. We explore the redshift dependence of the BBH mass distribution jointly with the merger rate evolution from the third gravitational wave (GW) catalog GWTC-3 of the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA collaboration. We study possible connections between peak-like features in the mass spectrum of BBHs and processes related to supernovae physics and time-delay distributions. We obtain a preference for short-time delays between star formation and BBH mergers. Using a power law form for the time delay distribution ($(t^{\rm min}_d)^{d}$) we find $d<-0.7$ credible at $90\%$ interval. The mass distribution of the BBHs {could be fitted} with a power-law form with {a redshift-dependent peak feature that can be linked to the pair instability supernovae (PISN) mass scale $M_{\rm PISN}(Z_*)$ at a stellar metallicity $Z_*$. For a fiducial value of the stellar metallicity $Z_*= 10^{-4}$, we find the $\rm M_{\rm PISN}(Z_*)=44.4^{+7.9}_{-6.3} $ $\rm M_\odot$.} This is in accordance with the theoretical prediction of the lower edge of the PISN mass scale and differs from previous analyses. Although we find a strong dependence of the PISN value on metallicity, the model that we explored is not strongly favored over those that do not account for metallicity as the Bayes factors are inconclusive. In the future with more data, evidence towards metallicity dependence of the PISN will have a significant impact on our understanding of stellar physics.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2022

The Hitchhiker's guide to the galaxy catalog approach for gravitational wave cosmology

We outline the ``dark siren'' galaxy catalog method for cosmological inference using gravitational wave (GW) standard sirens, clarifying some common misconceptions in the implementation of this method. When a confident transient electromagnetic counterpart to a GW event is unavailable, the identification of a unique host galaxy is in general challenging. Instead, as originally proposed by Schutz (1986), one can consult a galaxy catalog and implement a dark siren statistical approach incorporating all potential host galaxies within the localization volume. Trott & Hunterer 2021 recently claimed that this approach results in a biased estimate of the Hubble constant, $H_0$, when implemented on mock data, even if optimistic assumptions are made. We demonstrate explicitly that, as previously shown by multiple independent groups, the dark siren statistical method leads to an unbiased posterior when the method is applied to the data correctly. We highlight common sources of error possible to make in the generation of mock data and implementation of the statistical framework, including the mismodeling of selection effects and inconsistent implementations of the Bayesian framework, which can lead to a spurious bias.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2022

Current and future constraints on cosmology and modified gravitational wave friction from binary black holes

Gravitational wave (GW) standard sirens are well-established probes with which one can measure cosmological parameters, and are complementary to other probes like the cosmic microwave background or supernovae standard candles. Here we focus on dark GW sirens, specifically binary black holes (BBHs) for which there is only GW data. Our approach relies on the assumption of a source frame mass model for the BBH distribution, and we consider four models that are representative of the BBH population observed so far. In addition to inferring cosmological and mass model parameters, we use dark sirens to test modified gravity theories. These theories often predict different GW propagation equations on cosmological scales, leading to a different GW luminosity distance which in some cases can be parametrized by variables $Ξ_0$ and $n$. General relativity (GR) corresponds to $Ξ_0= 1$. We perform a joint estimate of the population parameters governing mass, redshift, the variables characterizing the cosmology, and the modified GW luminosity distance. We use data from the third LVK observation run and find - for the four mass models and for three SNR cuts - that GR is consistently the preferred model to describe all observed BBH GW signals. Furthermore, all modified gravity parameters have posteriors that are compatible with the values predicted by GR at the 90% confidence interval. We show that there are strong correlations between cosmological, astrophysical and modified gravity parameters. If GR is the correct theory of gravity, and assuming narrow priors on the cosmological parameters, we forecast an uncertainty of the modified gravity parameter $Ξ_0$ of 51% with $\sim 90$ detections at O4-like sensitivities, and $Ξ_0$ of 20% with an additional $\sim 400$ detections at O5-like sensitivity. We also consider how these forecasts depend on the current uncertainties of the BBH population.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2022

Current and future constraints on cosmology and modified gravitational wave friction from binary black holes

In this proceedings, we are interested in dark gravitational wave standard sirens and their use for cosmology and for constraining modified gravity theories. Due to the extra friction term introduced in their propagation equation those theories predict different luminosity distances for electromagnetic and gravitational waves (GWs). This effect can be parametrized by the two variables $Ξ_0$ and $n$, that can be measured from gravitational wave observations, and specifically from the binary black hole (BBH) mergers detected by LIGO and Virgo. By fitting jointly BBH population models in mass and redshift, the cosmological parameters, and the modified GW luminosity distance to $\sim$ 60 signals observed during the first three LIGO/Virgo observation runs, we conclude that general relativity is consistently the preferred model. The future observation runs O4 and O5 are also considered. Using the same approach, we forecast a measurement uncertainty on the modified gravity parameter $Ξ_0$ of $51\%$ with O4, and $20\%$ with O4 and O5, respectively if GR is the correct theory of gravity. However, we underline that there are strong correlations between astrophysical, cosmological and modified gravity parameters, possibly leading to bias if wrong priors are assumed.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2020

First measurement of the Hubble parameter from bright binary black hole GW190521

The Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) reported the event "ZTF19abanrhr" as a candidate electromagnetic (EM) counterpart at a redshift $z=0.438$ to the gravitational wave (GW) emission from the binary black hole merger GW190521. Assuming that ZTF19abanrhr is the {\it bona fide} EM counterpart to GW190521, and using the GW luminosity distance estimate from three different waveforms NRSur7dq4, SEOBNRv4PHM, and IMRPhenomPv3HM, we report a measurement of the Hubble constant $H_0= 50.4_{-19.5}^{+28.1}$ km/s/Mpc, $ 62.2_{-19.7}^{+29.5}$ km/s/Mpc, and $ 43.1_{-11.4}^{+24.6}$ km/s/Mpc (median along with $68\%$ credible interval) respectively after marginalizing over matter density $Ω_m$ (or dark energy equation of state $w_0$) assuming the flat LCDM (or wCDM) model. Combining our results with the binary neutron star event GW170817 with its redshift measurement alone, as well as with its inclination angle inferred from Very Large Baseline Interferometry (VLBI), we find $H_0= 67.6_{-4.2}^{+4.3}$ km/s/Mpc, $Ω_m= 0.47_{-0.27}^{+0.34}$, and $w_0= -1.17_{-0.57}^{+0.68}$ (median along with $68\%$ credible interval) providing the most stringent measurement on $H_0$ and the first estimation on $Ω_m$ and $w_0$ from bright standard siren. In the future, $1.3\%$ measurement of $H_0=68$ km/s/Mpc and $28\%$ measurement of $w_0=-1$ is possible from about $200$ GW190521-like sources.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2019

Gravitational solitons on Kasner background revisited: The simplest solitons with physical context

We revise the one-pair complex poles soliton solutions on a Kasner background. In the literature, these were rejected as solutions with no cosmological interest due to singularities that supposedly show up at space-like infinity. The only accepted solutions of this kind were those with background metric parameter $d=\pm 1$. By computing the scalars $I, J$ we find that there are no scalar singularities at all, for a wide range of the background parameter $d$. This means that there are actually an enormous number of acceptable simple complex-poles solutions, besides the $d=\pm1$ cases. These solutions are interesting, because they are much simpler than the two-pairs complex poles solutions and, consequently, it is easier to draw conclusions and relate physical phenomena to them.

gr-qc↗