arXiv subjects

Chunrong Ai

Publications and source records attributed to Chunrong Ai.

11 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Data-Automated Policy Learning for Nonlinear Welfare

This paper explores policy learning from observational data, focusing on a nonlinear welfare criterion in a binary treatment setting. The nonlinear criterion is inspired by scenarios where policymakers prioritize specific population segments. We model this criterion using a utility function that encompasses potential outcomes and intermediate parameters, with the latter capturing higher moments of the outcome distributions. When formulated in the context of observational data, both the intermediate parameters and the welfare criterion depend on the propensity score, which we estimate using machine-learning techniques. To address bias in machine learning estimates, we introduce a novel reweighting-based debiasing approach that offers a promising alternative to traditional orthogonality-based methods. To tackle the complexities of infinite-dimensional policy spaces, we employ sieve approximations and $K$-fold cross-validation for model selection, thereby fully automating the policy-learning process. Despite these complexities, we demonstrate that both the welfare regret and the average welfare regret of our proposed policy learning method satisfy an oracle inequality, thereby providing theoretical guarantees on the performance of the estimated policy relative to the best possible policy. This finding extends the existing results from linear to nonlinear welfare criteria, from finite-dimensional to infinite-dimensional policy spaces, and from a known propensity score to a machine-learned one.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2026

Data-Driven Uniform Inference for General Continuous Treatment Models via Minimum-Variance Weighting

Ai et al. (2021) studied the estimation of a general dose-response function (GDRF) of a continuous treatment that includes the average dose-response function, the quantile dose-response function, and other expectiles of the dose-response distribution. They specified the GDRF as a parametric function of the treatment status only and proposed a weighted regression with the weighting function estimated using the maximum entropy approach. This paper specifies the GDRF as a nonparametric function of the treatment status, proposes a weighted local linear regression for estimating GDRF, and develops a bootstrap procedure for constructing the uniform confidence bands. We propose stable weights with minimum sample variance while eliminating the sample association between the treatment and the confounding variables. The proposed weights admit a closed-form expression, allowing them to be computed efficiently in the bootstrap sampling. Under certain conditions, we derive the uniform Bahadur representation for the proposed estimator of GDRF and establish the validity of the corresponding uniform confidence bands. A fully data-driven approach to choosing the undersmooth tuning parameters and a data-driven bias-control confidence band are included. A simulation study and an application demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed approach.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

Efficient estimation of average treatment effects with unmeasured confounding and proxies

Proximal causal inference provides a framework for estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) in the presence of unmeasured confounding by leveraging outcome and treatment proxies. Identification in this framework relies on the existence of a so-called bridge function. Standard approaches typically postulate a parametric specification for the bridge function, which is estimated in a first step and then plugged into an ATE estimator. However, this sequential procedure suffers from two potential sources of efficiency loss: (i) the difficulty of efficiently estimating a bridge function defined by an integral equation, and (ii) the failure to account for the correlation between the estimation steps. To overcome these limitations, we propose a novel approach that approximates the integral equation with increasing moment restrictions and jointly estimates the bridge function and the ATE. We show that, under suitable conditions, our estimator is efficient. Additionally, we provide a data-driven procedure for selecting the tuning parameter (i.e., the number of moment restrictions). Simulation studies reveal that the proposed method performs well in finite samples, and an application to the right heart catheterization dataset from the SUPPORT study demonstrates its practical value.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

Efficient Nonparametric Inference for Mediation Analysis with Nonignorable Missing Confounders

Mediation analysis is widely used for exploring treatment mechanisms; however, it faces challenges when nonignorable missing confounders are present. Efficient inference of mediation effects and the efficiency loss due to nonignorable missingness have been rarely studied in the literature because of the difficulties arising from the ill-posed inverse problem. In this paper, we propose a general shadow variable framework for identifying mediation effects, allowing shadow variables to be selected from either observed covariates or externally collected auxiliary data. We then propose a Sieve-based Iterative Outward (SIO) approach for estimation. We establish large-sample theory, particularly asymptotic normality, for the proposed estimator despite the ill-posedness of the problem. We show that our estimator is locally efficient and attains the semiparametric efficiency bound under certain conditions. Building on the efficient influence function, we explicitly quantify the efficiency loss attributable to missingness and propose a debiased machine learning approach for estimation and inference. We examine the finite-sample performance of the proposed approach using extensive simulation studies and showcase its practical applicability through an empirical analysis of CFPS data.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

Data-Driven Policy Learning for Continuous Treatments

This paper studies policy learning for continuous treatments from observational data. Continuous treatments present more significant challenges than discrete ones because population welfare may need nonparametric estimation, and policy space may be infinite-dimensional and may satisfy shape restrictions. We propose to approximate the policy space with a sequence of finite-dimensional spaces and, for any given policy, obtain the empirical welfare by applying the kernel method. We consider two cases: known and unknown propensity scores. In the latter case, we allow for machine learning of the propensity score and modify the empirical welfare to account for the effect of machine learning. The learned policy maximizes the empirical welfare or the modified empirical welfare over the approximating space. In both cases, we modify the penalty algorithm proposed in Mbakop and Tabord-Meehan (2021) to data-automate the tuning parameters (i.e., bandwidth and dimension of the approximating space) and establish an oracle inequality for the welfare regret.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2025

Testing Conditional Independence via Density Ratio Regression

This paper develops a conditional independence (CI) test from a conditional density ratio (CDR) for weakly dependent data. The main contribution is presenting a closed-form expression for the estimated conditional density ratio function with good finite-sample performance. The key idea is exploiting the linear sieve combined with the quadratic norm. Matsushita et al. (2022) exploited the linear sieve to estimate the unconditional density ratio. We must exploit the linear sieve twice to estimate the conditional density ratio. First, we estimate an unconditional density ratio with an unweighted sieve least-squares regression, as done in Matsushita et al. (2022), and then the conditional density ratio with a weighted sieve least-squares regression, where the weights are the estimated unconditional density ratio. The proposed test has several advantages over existing alternatives. First, the test statistic is invariant to the monotone transformation of the data distribution and has a closed-form expression that enhances computational speed and efficiency. Second, the conditional density ratio satisfies the moment restrictions. The estimated ratio satisfies the empirical analog of those moment restrictions. As a result, the estimated density ratio is unlikely to have extreme values. Third, the proposed test can detect all deviations from conditional independence at rates arbitrarily close to $n^{-1/2}$ , and the local power loss is independent of the data dimension. A small-scale simulation study indicates that the proposed test outperforms the alternatives in various dependence structures.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2024

Nonparametric Estimation of Path-specific Effects in Presence of Nonignorable Missing Covariates

The path-specific effect (PSE) is of primary interest in mediation analysis when multiple intermediate variables between treatment and outcome are observed, as it can isolate the specific effect through each mediator, thus mitigating potential bias arising from other intermediate variables serving as mediator-outcome confounders. However, estimation and inference of PSE become challenging in the presence of nonignorable missing covariates, a situation particularly common in epidemiological research involving sensitive patient information. In this paper, we propose a fully nonparametric methodology to address this challenge. We establish identification for PSE by expressing it as a functional of observed data and demonstrate that the associated nuisance functions can be uniquely determined through sequential optimization problems by leveraging a shadow variable. Then we propose a sieve-based regression imputation approach for estimation. We establish the large-sample theory for the proposed estimator, and introduce a robust and efficient approach to make inference for PSE. The proposed method is applied to the NHANES dataset to investigate the mediation roles of dyslipidemia and obesity in the pathway from Type 2 diabetes mellitus to cardiovascular disease.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2022

Compressing Features for Learning with Noisy Labels

Supervised learning can be viewed as distilling relevant information from input data into feature representations. This process becomes difficult when supervision is noisy as the distilled information might not be relevant. In fact, recent research shows that networks can easily overfit all labels including those that are corrupted, and hence can hardly generalize to clean datasets. In this paper, we focus on the problem of learning with noisy labels and introduce compression inductive bias to network architectures to alleviate this over-fitting problem. More precisely, we revisit one classical regularization named Dropout and its variant Nested Dropout. Dropout can serve as a compression constraint for its feature dropping mechanism, while Nested Dropout further learns ordered feature representations w.r.t. feature importance. Moreover, the trained models with compression regularization are further combined with Co-teaching for performance boost. Theoretically, we conduct bias-variance decomposition of the objective function under compression regularization. We analyze it for both single model and Co-teaching. This decomposition provides three insights: (i) it shows that over-fitting is indeed an issue for learning with noisy labels; (ii) through an information bottleneck formulation, it explains why the proposed feature compression helps in combating label noise; (iii) it gives explanations on the performance boost brought by incorporating compression regularization into Co-teaching. Experiments show that our simple approach can have comparable or even better performance than the state-of-the-art methods on benchmarks with real-world label noise including Clothing1M and ANIMAL-10N. Our implementation is available at https://yingyichen-cyy.github.io/CompressFeatNoisyLabels/.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2018

A Unified Framework for Efficient Estimation of General Treatment Models

This paper presents a weighted optimization framework that unifies the binary,multi-valued, continuous, as well as mixture of discrete and continuous treatment, under the unconfounded treatment assignment. With a general loss function, the framework includes the average, quantile and asymmetric least squares causal effect of treatment as special cases. For this general framework, we first derive the semiparametric efficiency bound for the causal effect of treatment, extending the existing bound results to a wider class of models. We then propose a generalized optimization estimation for the causal effect with weights estimated by solving an expanding set of equations. Under some sufficient conditions, we establish consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed estimator of the causal effect and show that the estimator attains our semiparametric efficiency bound, thereby extending the existing literature on efficient estimation of causal effect to a wider class of applications. Finally, we discuss etimation of some causal effect functionals such as the treatment effect curve and the average outcome. To evaluate the finite sample performance of the proposed procedure, we conduct a small scale simulation study and find that the proposed estimation has practical value. To illustrate the applicability of the procedure, we revisit the literature on campaign advertise and campaign contributions. Unlike the existing procedures which produce mixed results, we find no evidence of campaign advertise on campaign contribution.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2018

A Simple and Efficient Estimation of the Average Treatment Effect in the Presence of Unmeasured Confounders

Wang and Tchetgen Tchetgen (2017) studied identification and estimation of the average treatment effect when some confounders are unmeasured. Under their identification condition, they showed that the semiparametric efficient influence function depends on five unknown functionals. They proposed to parameterize all functionals and estimate the average treatment effect from the efficient influence function by replacing the unknown functionals with estimated functionals. They established that their estimator is consistent when certain functionals are correctly specified and attains the semiparametric efficiency bound when all functionals are correctly specified. In applications, it is likely that those functionals could all be misspecified. Consequently their estimator could be inconsistent or consistent but not efficient. This paper presents an alternative estimator that does not require parameterization of any of the functionals. We establish that the proposed estimator is always consistent and always attains the semiparametric efficiency bound. A simple and intuitive estimator of the asymptotic variance is presented, and a small scale simulation study reveals that the proposed estimation outperforms the existing alternatives in finite samples.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2018

A Simple and Efficient Estimation Method for Models with Nonignorable Missing Data

This paper proposes a simple and efficient estimation procedure for the model with non-ignorable missing data studied by Morikawa and Kim (2016). Their semiparametrically efficient estimator requires explicit nonparametric estimation and so suffers from the curse of dimensionality and requires a bandwidth selection. We propose an estimation method based on the Generalized Method of Moments (hereafter GMM). Our method is consistent and asymptotically normal regardless of the number of moments chosen. Furthermore, if the number of moments increases appropriately our estimator can achieve the semiparametric efficiency bound derived in Morikawa and Kim (2016), but under weaker regularity conditions. Moreover, our proposed estimator and its consistent covariance matrix are easily computed with the widely available GMM package. We propose two data-based methods for selection of the number of moments. A small scale simulation study reveals that the proposed estimation indeed out-performs the existing alternatives in finite samples.

stat.ME↗