arXiv subjects

Cian Naik

Publications and source records attributed to Cian Naik.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2023

Fast Bayesian Coresets via Subsampling and Quasi-Newton Refinement

Bayesian coresets approximate a posterior distribution by building a small weighted subset of the data points. Any inference procedure that is too computationally expensive to be run on the full posterior can instead be run inexpensively on the coreset, with results that approximate those on the full data. However, current approaches are limited by either a significant run-time or the need for the user to specify a low-cost approximation to the full posterior. We propose a Bayesian coreset construction algorithm that first selects a uniformly random subset of data, and then optimizes the weights using a novel quasi-Newton method. Our algorithm is a simple to implement, black-box method, that does not require the user to specify a low-cost posterior approximation. It is the first to come with a general high-probability bound on the KL divergence of the output coreset posterior. Experiments demonstrate that our method provides significant improvements in coreset quality against alternatives with comparable construction times, with far less storage cost and user input required.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2022

Impact of Geographic Diversity on Citation of Collaborative Research

Diversity in human capital is widely seen as critical to creating holistic and high quality research, especially in areas that engage with diverse cultures, environments, and challenges. Quantifying diverse academic collaborations and its effect on research quality is lacking, especially at international scale and across different domains. Here, we present the first effort to measure the impact of geographic diversity in coauthorships on the citation of their papers across different academic domains. Our results unequivocally show that geographic coauthor diversity improves paper citation, but very long distance collaborations has variable impact. We also discover "well-trodden" collaboration circles that yield much less impact than similar travel distances. These relationships are observed to exist across different subject areas, but with varying strengths. These findings can help academics identify new opportunities from a diversity perspective, as well as inform funders on areas that require additional mobility support.

cs.DL↗

arXiv2022

Bayesian Nonparametrics for Sparse Dynamic Networks

In this paper we propose a Bayesian nonparametric approach to modelling sparse time-varying networks. A positive parameter is associated to each node of a network, which models the sociability of that node. Sociabilities are assumed to evolve over time, and are modelled via a dynamic point process model. The model is able to capture long term evolution of the sociabilities. Moreover, it yields sparse graphs, where the number of edges grows subquadratically with the number of nodes. The evolution of the sociabilities is described by a tractable time-varying generalised gamma process. We provide some theoretical insights into the model and apply it to three datasets: a simulated network, a network of hyperlinks between communities on Reddit, and a network of co-occurences of words in Reuters news articles after the September 11th attacks.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2019

Sparse Networks with Core-Periphery Structure

We propose a statistical model for graphs with a core-periphery structure. To do this we define a precise notion of what it means for a graph to have this structure, based on the sparsity properties of the subgraphs of core and periphery nodes. We present a class of sparse graphs with such properties, and provide methods to simulate from this class, and to perform posterior inference. We demonstrate that our model can detect core-periphery structure in simulated and real-world networks.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2019

Quantifying the causal effect of speed cameras on road traffic accidents via an approximate Bayesian doubly robust estimator

This paper quantifies the effect of speed cameras on road traffic collisions using an approximate Bayesian doubly-robust (DR) causal inference estimation method. Previous empirical work on this topic, which shows a diverse range of estimated effects, is based largely on outcome regression (OR) models using the Empirical Bayes approach or on simple before and after comparisons. Issues of causality and confounding have received little formal attention. A causal DR approach combines propensity score (PS) and OR models to give an average treatment effect (ATE) estimator that is consistent and asymptotically normal under correct specification of either of the two component models. We develop this approach within a novel approximate Bayesian framework to derive posterior predictive distributions for the ATE of speed cameras on road traffic collisions. Our results for England indicate significant reductions in the number of collisions at speed cameras sites (mean ATE = -15%). Our proposed method offers a promising approach for evaluation of transport safety interventions.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2017

Multiply robust dose-response estimation for multivalued causal inference problems

This paper develops a multiply robust (MR) dose-response estimator for causal inference problems involving multivalued treatments. We combine a family of generalised propensity score (GPS) models and a family of outcome regression (OR) models to achieve an average potential outcomes estimator that is consistent if just one of the GPS or OR models in each family is correctly specified. We provide proofs and simulations that demonstrate multiple robustness in the context of multivalued causal inference problems.

stat.ME↗