Searcharxiv⌕ Search

arXiv subjects

Ciarán Mark Gilligan-Lee

Publications and source records attributed to Ciarán Mark Gilligan-Lee.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

Beyond Temporal Proximity: Explanatory World Models for Credit Assignment in Reinforcement Learning

Generative Recommenders increasingly use Reinforcement Learning (RL) to optimize outcomes that may appear hundreds or thousands of interactions after a decision. Standard RL propagates reward according to temporal proximity rather than explicit relevance, attenuating the signal assigned to distant but important actions and creating a source of sample inefficiency. We introduce Explanatory World Models (EWM), an attribution framework that uses explanations to identify the earlier events that plausibly contributed to a realized outcome. We instantiate EWM with a frontier language model and use its explanations as learning signals using a conservative hierarchical operator that recursively redistributes reward while preserving the undiscounted episode return. To investigate what constitutes a useful explanation, we operationalize three complementary variants inspired by Halpern's actual causation, Lombrozo's explanatory simplicity, and Deutsch's hard-to-vary explanations. We evaluate EWM on two controlled long-horizon RL benchmarks, a public sequential-recommendation benchmark, and an industry-scale generative recommender. On Crafter and WordCraft, EWM substantially outperforms PPO and LaRe, with its largest gains when rewards are most delayed. On KuaiRand, EWM outperforms SFT and LaRe offline and A2C online. Finally, in an offline evaluation of an industry generative recommender, EWM considerably improves Recall and increases behavioral proxies. These results suggest that explanations can provide structured and reusable credit for learning from delayed outcomes.

cs.LG↗

The Hardness of Validating Observational Studies with Experimental Data

Observational data is often readily available in large quantities, but can lead to biased causal effect estimates due to the presence of unobserved confounding. Recent works attempt to remove this bias by supplementing observational data with experimental data, which, when available, is typically on a smaller scale due to the time and cost involved in running a randomised controlled trial. In this work, we prove a theorem that places fundamental limits on this ``best of both worlds'' approach. Using the framework of impossible inference, we show that although it is possible to use experimental data to \emph{falsify} causal effect estimates from observational data, in general it is not possible to \emph{validate} such estimates. Our theorem proves that while experimental data can be used to detect bias in observational studies, without additional assumptions on the smoothness of the correction function, it can not be used to remove it. We provide a practical example of such an assumption, developing a novel Gaussian Process based approach to construct intervals which contain the true treatment effect with high probability, both inside and outside of the support of the experimental data. We demonstrate our methodology on both simulated and semi-synthetic datasets and make the \href{https://github.com/Jakefawkes/Obs_and_exp_data}{code available}.

stat.ML↗