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Ciro Cattuto

Publications and source records attributed to Ciro Cattuto.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2025

Modeling memory in time-respecting paths on temporal networks

Human close-range proximity interactions are the key determinant for spreading processes like knowledge diffusion, norm adoption, and infectious disease transmission. These dynamical processes can be modeled with time-respecting paths on temporal networks. Here, we propose a framework to quantify memory in time-respecting paths and evaluate it on several empirical datasets encoding proximity between humans collected in different settings. Our results show strong memory effects, robust across settings, model parameters, and statistically significant when compared to memoryless null models. We further propose a generative model to create synthetic temporal graphs with memory and use it to show that memory in time-respecting paths decreases the diffusion speed, affecting the dynamics of spreading processes on temporal networks.

physics.soc-ph↗
arXiv2025

Non-traditional data in pandemic preparedness and response: identifying and addressing first and last-mile challenges

The pandemic served as an important test case of complementing traditional public health data with non-traditional data (NTD) such as mobility traces, social media activity, and wearables data to inform decision-making. Drawing on an expert workshop and a targeted survey of European modelers, we assess the promise and persistent limitations of such data in pandemic preparedness and response. We distinguish between "first-mile" (accessing and harmonizing data) and "last-mile" challenges (translating insights into actionable interventions). The expert workshop held in 2024 brought together participants from public health, academia, policymakers, and industry to reflect on lessons learned and define strategies for translating NTD insights into policy making. The survey offers evidence of the barriers faced during COVID-19 and highlights key data unavailability and underuse. Our findings reveal ongoing issues with data access, quality, and interoperability, as well as institutional and cognitive barriers to evidence-based decision-making. Around 66% of datasets suffered access problem, with data sharing reluctance for NTD being double that of traditional data (30% vs 15%). Only 10% reported they could use all the data they needed. We propose a set of recommendations: for first-mile challenges, solutions focus on technical and legal frameworks for data access.; for last-mile challenges, we recommend fusion centers, decision accelerator labs, and networks of scientific ambassadors to bridge the gap between analysis and action. Realizing the full value of NTD requires a sustained investment in institutional readiness, cross-sectoral collaboration, and a shift toward a culture of data solidarity. Grounded in the lessons of COVID-19, the article can be used to design a roadmap for using NTD to confront a broader array of public health emergencies, from climate shocks to humanitarian crises.

cs.CY↗
arXiv2025

Relationship between household attributes and contact patterns in urban and rural South Africa

Households play a crucial role in the propagation of infectious diseases due to the frequent and prolonged interactions that typically occur between their members. Recent studies have emphasized the need to include socioeconomic variables in epidemic models to account for the heterogeneity induced by human behavior. While sub-Saharan Africa suffers the highest burden of infectious disease diffusion, few studies have investigated the mixing patterns in the countries and their relation with social indicators. This work analyzes household contact matrices measured with wearable proximity sensors in a rural and an urban village in South Africa. Leveraging a rich data collection describing additional individual and household attributes, we investigate how the household contact matrix varies according to the household type (whether it is composed only of a familiar nucleus or by a larger group), the gender of its head (the primary decision-maker), the rural or urban context, and the season in which it was measured. We show the household type and the gender of its head induce differences in the interaction patterns between household members, particularly regarding child caregiving, suggesting they are relevant attributes to include in epidemic modeling.

physics.soc-ph↗
arXiv2024

An embedding-based distance for temporal graphs

Temporal graphs are commonly used to represent time-resolved relations between entities in many natural and artificial systems. Many techniques were devised to investigate the evolution of temporal graphs by comparing their state at different time points. However, quantifying the similarity between temporal graphs as a whole is an open problem. Here, we use embeddings based on time-respecting random walks to introduce a new notion of distance between temporal graphs. This distance is well-defined for pairs of temporal graphs with different numbers of nodes and different time spans. We study the case of a matched pair of graphs, when a known relation exists between their nodes, and the case of unmatched graphs, when such a relation is unavailable and the graphs may be of different sizes. We use empirical and synthetic temporal network data to show that the distance we introduce discriminates graphs with different topological and temporal properties. We provide an efficient implementation of the distance computation suitable for large-scale temporal graphs.

cs.SI↗
arXiv2022

Estimating household contact matrices structure from easily collectable metadata

Contact matrices are a commonly adopted data representation, used to develop compartmental models for epidemic spreading, accounting for the contact heterogeneities across age groups. Their estimation, however, is generally time and effort consuming and model-driven strategies to quantify the contacts are often needed. In this article we focus on household contact matrices, describing the contacts among the members of a family and develop a parametric model to describe them. This model combines demographic and easily quantifiable survey-based data and is tested on high resolution proximity data collected in two sites in South Africa. Given its simplicity and interpretability, we expect our method to be easily applied to other contexts as well and we identify relevant questions that need to be addressed during the data collection procedure.

physics.soc-ph↗
arXiv2020

Using wearable proximity sensors to characterize social contact patterns in a village of rural Malawi

Measuring close proximity interactions between individuals can provide key information on social contacts in human communities. With the present study, we report the quantitative assessment of contact patterns in a village in rural Malawi, based on proximity sensors technology that allows for high-resolution measurements of social contacts. The system provided information on community structure of the village, on social relationships and social assortment between individuals, and on daily contacts activity within the village. Our findings revealed that the social network presented communities that were highly correlated with household membership, thus confirming the importance of family ties within the village. Contacts within households occur mainly between adults and children, and adults and adolescents. This result suggests that the principal role of adults within the family is the care for the youngest. Most of the inter-household interactions occurred among caregivers and among adolescents. We studied the tendency of participants to interact with individuals with whom they shared similar attributes (i.e., assortativity). Age and gender assortativity were observed in inter-household network, showing that individuals not belonging to the same family group prefer to interact with people with whom they share similar age and gender. Age disassortativity is observed in intra-household networks. Family members congregate in the early morning, during lunch time and dinner time. In contrast, individuals not belonging to the same household displayed a growing contact activity from the morning, reaching a maximum in the afternoon. The data collection infrastructure used in this study seems to be very effective to capture the dynamics of contacts by collecting high resolution temporal data and to give access to the level of information needed to understand the social context of the village.

physics.soc-ph↗
arXiv2020

An individual-level ground truth dataset for home location detection

Home detection, assigning a phone device to its home antenna, is a ubiquitous part of most studies in the literature on mobile phone data. Despite its widespread use, home detection relies on a few assumptions that are difficult to check without ground truth, i.e., where the individual that owns the device resides. In this paper, we provide an unprecedented evaluation of the accuracy of home detection algorithms on a group of sixty-five participants for whom we know their exact home address and the antennas that might serve them. Besides, we analyze not only Call Detail Records (CDRs) but also two other mobile phone streams: eXtended Detail Records (XDRs, the ``data'' channel) and Control Plane Records (CPRs, the network stream). These data streams vary not only in their temporal granularity but also they differ in the data generation mechanism', e.g., CDRs are purely human-triggered while CPR is purely machine-triggered events. Finally, we quantify the amount of data that is needed for each stream to carry out successful home detection for each stream. We find that the choice of stream and the algorithm heavily influences home detection, with an hour-of-day algorithm for the XDRs performing the best, and with CPRs performing best for the amount of data needed to perform home detection. Our work is useful for researchers and practitioners in order to minimize data requests and to maximize the accuracy of home antenna location.

cs.CY↗
arXiv2020

Young Adult Unemployment Through the Lens of Social Media: Italy as a case study

Youth unemployment rates are still in alerting levels for many countries, among which Italy. Direct consequences include poverty, social exclusion, and criminal behaviours, while negative impact on the future employability and wage cannot be obscured. In this study, we employ survey data together with social media data, and in particular likes on Facebook Pages, to analyse personality, moral values, but also cultural elements of the young unemployed population in Italy. Our findings show that there are small but significant differences in personality and moral values, with the unemployed males to be less agreeable while females more open to new experiences. At the same time, unemployed have a more collectivist point of view, valuing more in-group loyalty, authority, and purity foundations. Interestingly, topic modelling analysis did not reveal major differences in interests and cultural elements of the unemployed. Utilisation patterns emerged though; the employed seem to use Facebook to connect with local activities, while the unemployed use it mostly as for entertainment purposes and as a source of news, making them susceptible to mis/disinformation. We believe these findings can help policymakers get a deeper understanding of this population and initiatives that improve both the hard and the soft skills of this fragile population.

cs.CY↗
arXiv2020

DyANE: Dynamics-aware node embedding for temporal networks

Low-dimensional vector representations of network nodes have proven successful to feed graph data to machine learning algorithms and to improve performance across diverse tasks. Most of the embedding techniques, however, have been developed with the goal of achieving dense, low-dimensional encoding of network structure and patterns. Here, we present a node embedding technique aimed at providing low-dimensional feature vectors that are informative of dynamical processes occurring over temporal networks -- rather than of the network structure itself -- with the goal of enabling prediction tasks related to the evolution and outcome of these processes. We achieve this by using a modified supra-adjacency representation of temporal networks and building on standard embedding techniques for static graphs based on random-walks. We show that the resulting embedding vectors are useful for prediction tasks related to paradigmatic dynamical processes, namely epidemic spreading over empirical temporal networks. In particular, we illustrate the performance of our approach for the prediction of nodes' epidemic states in a single instance of a spreading process. We show how framing this task as a supervised multi-label classification task on the embedding vectors allows us to estimate the temporal evolution of the entire system from a partial sampling of nodes at random times, with potential impact for nowcasting infectious disease dynamics.

physics.soc-ph↗
arXiv2020

Span-core Decomposition for Temporal Networks: Algorithms and Applications

When analyzing temporal networks, a fundamental task is the identification of dense structures (i.e., groups of vertices that exhibit a large number of links), together with their temporal span (i.e., the period of time for which the high density holds). In this paper we tackle this task by introducing a notion of temporal core decomposition where each core is associated with two quantities, its coreness, which quantifies how densely it is connected, and its span, which is a temporal interval: we call such cores \emph{span-cores}. For a temporal network defined on a discrete temporal domain $T$, the total number of time intervals included in $T$ is quadratic in $|T|$, so that the total number of span-cores is potentially quadratic in $|T|$ as well. Our first main contribution is an algorithm that, by exploiting containment properties among span-cores, computes all the span-cores efficiently. Then, we focus on the problem of finding only the \emph{maximal span-cores}, i.e., span-cores that are not dominated by any other span-core by both their coreness property and their span. We devise a very efficient algorithm that exploits theoretical findings on the maximality condition to directly extract the maximal ones without computing all span-cores. Finally, as a third contribution, we introduce the problem of \emph{temporal community search}, where a set of query vertices is given as input, and the goal is to find a set of densely-connected subgraphs containing the query vertices and covering the whole underlying temporal domain $T$. We derive a connection between this problem and the problem of finding (maximal) span-cores. Based on this connection, we show how temporal community search can be solved in polynomial-time via dynamic programming, and how the maximal span-cores can be profitably exploited to significantly speed-up the basic algorithm.

cs.DS↗
arXiv2020

Relevance of temporal cores for epidemic spread in temporal networks

Temporal networks are widely used to represent a vast diversity of systems, including in particular social interactions, and the spreading processes unfolding on top of them. The identification of structures playing important roles in such processes remains largely an open question, despite recent progresses in the case of static networks. Here, we consider as candidate structures the recently introduced concept of span-cores: the span-cores decompose a temporal network into subgraphs of controlled duration and increasing connectivity, generalizing the core-decomposition of static graphs. To assess the relevance of such structures, we explore the effectiveness of strategies aimed either at containing or maximizing the impact of a spread, based respectively on removing span-cores of high cohesiveness or duration to decrease the epidemic risk, or on seeding the process from such structures. The effectiveness of such strategies is assessed in a variety of empirical data sets and compared to baselines that use only static information on the centrality of nodes and static concepts of coreness, as well as to a baseline based on a temporal centrality measure. Our results show that the most stable and cohesive temporal cores play indeed an important role in epidemic processes on temporal networks, and that their nodes are likely to represent influential spreaders.

physics.soc-ph↗
arXiv2020

Decentralized Privacy-Preserving Proximity Tracing

This document describes and analyzes a system for secure and privacy-preserving proximity tracing at large scale. This system, referred to as DP3T, provides a technological foundation to help slow the spread of SARS-CoV-2 by simplifying and accelerating the process of notifying people who might have been exposed to the virus so that they can take appropriate measures to break its transmission chain. The system aims to minimise privacy and security risks for individuals and communities and guarantee the highest level of data protection. The goal of our proximity tracing system is to determine who has been in close physical proximity to a COVID-19 positive person and thus exposed to the virus, without revealing the contact's identity or where the contact occurred. To achieve this goal, users run a smartphone app that continually broadcasts an ephemeral, pseudo-random ID representing the user's phone and also records the pseudo-random IDs observed from smartphones in close proximity. When a patient is diagnosed with COVID-19, she can upload pseudo-random IDs previously broadcast from her phone to a central server. Prior to the upload, all data remains exclusively on the user's phone. Other users' apps can use data from the server to locally estimate whether the device's owner was exposed to the virus through close-range physical proximity to a COVID-19 positive person who has uploaded their data. In case the app detects a high risk, it will inform the user.

cs.CR↗
arXiv2020

Give more data, awareness and control to individual citizens, and they will help COVID-19 containment

The rapid dynamics of COVID-19 calls for quick and effective tracking of virus transmission chains and early detection of outbreaks, especially in the phase 2 of the pandemic, when lockdown and other restriction measures are progressively withdrawn, in order to avoid or minimize contagion resurgence. For this purpose, contact-tracing apps are being proposed for large scale adoption by many countries. A centralized approach, where data sensed by the app are all sent to a nation-wide server, raises concerns about citizens' privacy and needlessly strong digital surveillance, thus alerting us to the need to minimize personal data collection and avoiding location tracking. We advocate the conceptual advantage of a decentralized approach, where both contact and location data are collected exclusively in individual citizens' "personal data stores", to be shared separately and selectively, voluntarily, only when the citizen has tested positive for COVID-19, and with a privacy preserving level of granularity. This approach better protects the personal sphere of citizens and affords multiple benefits: it allows for detailed information gathering for infected people in a privacy-preserving fashion; and, in turn this enables both contact tracing, and, the early detection of outbreak hotspots on more finely-granulated geographic scale. Our recommendation is two-fold. First to extend existing decentralized architectures with a light touch, in order to manage the collection of location data locally on the device, and allow the user to share spatio-temporal aggregates - if and when they want, for specific aims - with health authorities, for instance. Second, we favour a longer-term pursuit of realizing a Personal Data Store vision, giving users the opportunity to contribute to collective good in the measure they want, enhancing self-awareness, and cultivating collective efforts for rebuilding society.

cs.CY↗
arXiv2020

Mobile phone data and COVID-19: Missing an opportunity?

This paper describes how mobile phone data can guide government and public health authorities in determining the best course of action to control the COVID-19 pandemic and in assessing the effectiveness of control measures such as physical distancing. It identifies key gaps and reasons why this kind of data is only scarcely used, although their value in similar epidemics has proven in a number of use cases. It presents ways to overcome these gaps and key recommendations for urgent action, most notably the establishment of mixed expert groups on national and regional level, and the inclusion and support of governments and public authorities early on. It is authored by a group of experienced data scientists, epidemiologists, demographers and representatives of mobile network operators who jointly put their work at the service of the global effort to combat the COVID-19 pandemic.

cs.CY↗
arXiv2019

Gender gaps in urban mobility

The use of public transportation or simply moving about in streets are gendered issues. Women and girls often engage in multi-purpose, multi-stop trips in order to do household chores, work, and study ('trip chaining'). Women-headed households are often more prominent in urban settings and they tend to work more in low-paid/informal jobs than men, with limited access to transportation subsidies. Here we present recent results on urban mobility from a gendered perspective by uniquely combining a wide range of datasets, including commercial sources of telecom and open data. We explored urban mobility of women and men in the greater metropolitan area of Santiago, Chile, by analyzing the mobility traces extracted from the Call Detail Records (CDRs) of a large cohort of anonymized mobile phone users over a period of 3 months. We find that, taking into account the differences in users' calling behaviors, women move less than men, visiting less unique locations and distributing their time less equally among such locations. By mapping gender differences in mobility over the 52 comunas of Santiago, we find a higher mobility gap to be correlated with socio-economic indicators, such as a lower average income, and with the lack of public and private transportation options. Such results provide new insights for policymakers to design more gender inclusive transportation plans in the city of Santiago.

physics.soc-ph↗
arXiv2019

Human Values and Attitudes towards Vaccination in Social Media

Psychological, political, cultural, and even societal factors are entangled in the reasoning and decision-making process towards vaccination, rendering vaccine hesitancy a complex issue. Here, administering a series of surveys via a Facebook-hosted application, we study the worldviews of people that "Liked" supportive or vaccine resilient Facebook Pages. In particular, we assess differences in political viewpoints, moral values, personality traits, and general interests, finding that those sceptical about vaccination, appear to trust less the government, are less agreeable, while they are emphasising more on anti-authoritarian values. Exploring the differences in moral narratives as expressed in the linguistic descriptions of the Facebook Pages, we see that pages that defend vaccines prioritise the value of the family while the vaccine hesitancy pages are focusing on the value of freedom. Finally, creating embeddings based on the health-related likes on Facebook Pages, we explore common, latent interests of vaccine-hesitant people, showing a strong preference for natural cures. This exploratory analysis aims at exploring the potentials of a social media platform to act as a sensing tool, providing researchers and policymakers with insights drawn from the digital traces, that can help design communication campaigns that build confidence, based on the values that also appeal to the socio-moral criteria of people.

cs.CY↗
arXiv2019

Evaluation of Biases in Self-reported Demographic and Psychometric Information: Traditional versus Facebook-based Surveys

Social media in scientific research offer a unique digital observatory of human behaviours and hence great opportunities to conduct research at large scale answering complex sociodemographic questions. We focus on the identification and assessment of biases in social media administered surveys. This study aims to shed light on population, self-selection and behavioural biases, empirically comparing the consistency between self-reported information collected traditionally versus social media administered questionnaires, including demographic and psychometric attributes. We engaged a demographically representative cohort of young adults in Italy (approximately 4,000 participants) in taking a traditionally administered online survey and then, after one year, we invited them to use our ad hoc Facebook application (988 accepted) where they filled in part of the initial survey. We assess the statistically significant differences indicating population, self-selection, and behavioural biases due to the different context in which the questionnaire is administered. Our findings suggest that surveys administered on Facebook do not exhibit major biases with respect to traditionally administered surveys neither in terms of demographics, nor personality traits. Loyalty, authority, and social binding values were higher in the Facebook platform, probably due to the platform's intrinsic social character. We conclude, that Facebook apps are valid research tools for administering demographic and psychometric surveys provided that the entailed biases are taken into consideration. We contribute to the characterisation of Facebook apps as a valid scientific tool to administer demographic and psychometric surveys, and to the assessment of population, self-selection, and behavioural biases in the collected data.

cs.CY↗