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Clément Berenfeld

Publications and source records attributed to Clément Berenfeld.

17 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2026

Formalization and consistency of clone-censor-weight

Target trial emulation has become a standard framework for causal inference from observational data. Within this paradigm, the clone-censor-weight (CCW) methodology provides a practical way to deal with complex treatment and adherence definitions when treatment regimes are not distinguishable at baseline. Despite its increasing use, the statistical interpretation of CCW remains limited. In this work, we formalize the CCW methodology from a statistical viewpoint based on admissible sets and stochastic interventions. We characterize the causal estimands targeted by CCW, establish consistency of CCW estimators under standard identification assumptions, and provide theoretical guarantees for bootstrap-based inference methods.

stat.ME↗
arXiv2026

A Bayesian Approach to Causal Cure Models

Time-to-event data often include individuals who will never experience the failure event, and are therefore considered cured. In such settings, frequently encountered in clinical research, a substantial proportion of patients may remain event-free throughout the observation period, leading to the appearance of a survival plateau that is commonly interpreted as evidence of a cured fraction. Analysing such data requires inference on the cure fraction and on the survival function for the uncured subpopulation, tasks which are traditionally achieved with mixture cure models. However, assessing the causal effect of a treatment on these quantities is non-trivial. We consider principal stratification causal estimands, which have been proposed to evaluate effects on the cure fraction and on the survival for an always-uncured stratum. We additionally introduce a novel estimand, which considers the causal effect on the survival for a non-always-cured union of strata. We frame the problem from a Bayesian model-based perspective, which provides a flexible and unified estimation strategy while maintaining a direct link with classical mixture cure model quantities. The reliability of the proposed approach is validated through simulations, demonstrating competitive and robust performance relative to existing methods. Finally, we illustrate its practical usefulness through an application to a randomized trial comparing non-invasive ventilation with standard oxygen therapy in patients with hypoxemic respiratory failure following abdominal surgery.

stat.ME↗
arXiv2026

Causal Perspectives on Network Meta-Analysis

Pairwise and network meta-analyses occupy the highest tier of evidence-based medicine and routinely inform clinical guidelines and healthcare decision-making. Current approaches typically aggregate study-level treatment effects to obtain an overall estimate. We argue that the causal estimand should come first, with the aggregation derived only afterwards: the target population and the relevant sources of between-study heterogeneity should be explicitly defined before deriving the aggregation required for identification. This shift in perspective fundamentally changes both the estimands and the methodology. We develop a unified causal framework for pairwise and network meta-analysis based on aggregate data. By defining treatment effects with respect to a clinically meaningful target population, for example, the average population represented by the contributing trials, and accounting for heterogeneity induced by treatment-effect modifiers and center effects, we show that identification naturally leads to arm-level aggregation. In the network setting, this causal formulation departs fundamentally from the conventional contrast-based paradigm: arm-level aggregation emerges from the causal formulation rather than from a modeling choice, and treatment effects are identified without relying on the treatment network itself. This perspective provides an additional conceptual argument in the long-standing contrast-based versus arm-based debate. Numerical studies show that the proposed estimators target well-defined causal effects, whereas the causal interpretation of conventional approaches remains unclear. Although both approaches often produce similar estimates, we identify settings in which they diverge, with potentially important implications for the interpretation of meta-analytic evidence.

stat.ME↗
arXiv2026

Causal Evaluation of Membership Inference Attacks

Membership Inference Attacks (MIAs) aim to distinguish training points (members) from unseen data (non-members), and are widely used to quantify memorization and assess privacy risks. Standard MIA evaluation requires repeated retraining, which is computationally costly for large models. One-run (single training with randomized data inclusion) and zero-run (post hoc evaluation) methods are often used instead, but their statistical validity remains unclear. We address this gap by framing MIA evaluation as a causal inference problem, defining \emph{memorization as the causal effect of including a data point in the training set}. This novel formulation reveals and formalizes key sources of bias in existing protocols: one-run methods suffer from interference between jointly included points, while zero-run evaluations are additionally confounded by distribution shift between member and non-member evaluation data. We derive causal analogues of standard MIA metrics and propose practical estimators for multi-run, one-run, and zero-run regimes with non-asymptotic consistency guarantees. We validate our approach in several settings, including pretrained and fine-tuned LLMs, showing that it enables reliable measurement of MIA performance without retraining and under distribution shift. Overall, our framework provides a principled foundation for privacy evaluation in modern AI systems.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Estimating treatment duration effects via clone-censor-weight: a breast cancer case study

In this work, we study the estimation of treatment duration effects in observational survival data, where treatment and covariate histories evolve over time and longer observed durations are only attainable among individuals who remain event-free and under follow-up, leading to immortal time bias under naive analyses. The cloning-censoring-weighting (CCW) framework provides a practical approach to emulate target trials of treatment duration strategies, but several methodological aspects remain insufficiently understood. We focus on static treatment duration strategies under two settings of increasing complexity: baseline confounding only, and confounding with time-varying covariates. We formalize the assumptions underlying CCW, with particular emphasis on treatment admissibility, relaxed intervention rules, and the distinction between artificial and natural censoring. We then compare several estimation approaches after cloning and censoring, including inverse probability of censoring weighting (IPCW), the G-formula, and doubly robust estimators, through simulation studies assessing robustness, variability, and sensitivity to censoring model misspecification. Finally, we apply the framework to a Breast Cancer cohort to emulate a target trial comparing 2 versus 5 years of adjuvant tamoxifen in early stage breast cancer. Due to the small number of events and limited support for the 2-year strategy, estimates are associated with substantial uncertainty. These findings highlight both the practical relevance and the limitations of CCW, and underscore the importance of sensitivity analyses in complex longitudinal observational settings.

stat.ME↗
arXiv2026

Causal Meta-Analysis: Rethinking the Foundations of Evidence-Based Medicine

Meta-analysis, by synthesizing effect estimates from multiple studies conducted in diverse settings, stands at the top of the evidence hierarchy in clinical research. Yet, conventional approaches based on fixed- or random-effects models lack a causal framework, which may limit their interpretability and utility for public policy. Incorporating causal inference reframes meta-analysis as the estimation of well-defined causal effects on clearly specified populations, enabling a principled approach to handling study heterogeneity. We show that classical meta-analysis estimators have a clear causal interpretation when effects are measured as risk differences. However, this breaks down for nonlinear measures like the risk ratio and odds ratio. To address this, we introduce novel causal aggregation formulas that remain compatible with standard meta-analysis practices and do not require access to individual-level data. To evaluate real-world impact, we apply both classical and causal meta-analysis methods to 500 published meta-analyses. While the conclusions often align, notable discrepancies emerge, revealing cases where conventional methods may suggest a treatment is beneficial when, under a causal lens, it is in fact harmful.

stat.ME↗
arXiv2026

Treatment Effect Estimation in Causal Survival Analysis: Practical Recommendations

The restricted mean survival time (RMST) difference offers an interpretable causal contrast to estimate the treatment effect for time-to-event outcomes, yet a wide range of available estimators leaves limited guidance for practice. We provide a unified review of RMST estimators for randomized trials and observational studies, establish identification and asymptotic properties, and supply new derivations where needed. Our extensive simulation study compares simple nonparametric methods (such as unweighted Kaplan-Meier estimators) alongside parametric and nonparametric implementations of the G-formula, weighting approaches, Buckley-James transformations, and augmented estimators under diverse censoring mechanisms and model specifications. Across scenarios, classical Kaplan-Meier estimators (weighted when required by the censoring process) and G-formula methods perform well in randomized settings, while in observational data G-formula estimators remain competitive; however, augmented estimators such as AIPTW-AIPCW generally offer robustness to model misspecification and a favorable bias-variance trade-off. Parametric estimators perform best under correct specification, whereas nonparametric methods avoid functional assumptions but require large sample sizes to achieve reliable performance. We offer practical recommendations for estimator choice and provide open-source R code to support reproducibility and application.

stat.ME↗
arXiv2025

Seriation of Toeplitz and latent position matrices: optimal rates and computational trade-offs

In this paper, we consider the problem of seriation of a permuted structured matrix based on noisy observations. The entries of the matrix relate to an expected quantification of interaction between two objects: the higher the value, the closer the objects. A popular structured class for modelling such matrices is the permuted Robinson class, namely the set of matrices whose coefficients are decreasing away from its diagonal, up to a permutation of its lines and columns. We consider in this paper two submodels of Robinson matrices: the Toeplitz model, and the latent position model. We provide a computational lower bound based on the low-degree paradigm, which hints that there is a statistical-computational gap for seriation when measuring the error based on the Frobenius norm. We also provide a simple and polynomial-time algorithm that achives this lower bound. Along the way, we also characterize the information-theory optimal risk thereby giving evidence for the extent of the computation/information gap for this problem.

math.ST↗
arXiv2025

A Unified Framework for the Transportability of Population-Level Causal Measures

Generalization methods offer a powerful solution to one of the key drawbacks of randomized controlled trials (RCTs): their limited representativeness. By enabling the transport of treatment effect estimates to target populations subject to distributional shifts, these methods are increasingly recognized as the future of meta-analysis, the current gold standard in evidence-based medicine. Yet most existing approaches focus on the risk difference, overlooking the diverse range of causal measures routinely reported in clinical research. Reporting multiple effect measures-both absolute (e.g., risk difference, number needed to treat) and relative (e.g., risk ratio, odds ratio)-is essential to ensure clinical relevance, policy utility, and interpretability across contexts. To address this gap, we propose a unified framework for transporting a broad class of first-moment population causal effect measures under covariate shift. We provide identification results under two conditional exchangeability assumptions, derive both classical and semiparametric estimators, and evaluate their performance through theoretical analysis, simulations, and real-world applications. Our analysis shows the specificity of different causal measures and thus the interest of studying them all: for instance, two common approaches (one-step, estimating equation) lead to similar estimators for the risk difference but to two distinct estimators for the odds ratio.

stat.ME↗
arXiv2024

Estimating a density near an unknown manifold: a Bayesian nonparametric approach

We study the Bayesian density estimation of data living in the offset of an unknown submanifold of the Euclidean space. In this perspective, we introduce a new notion of anisotropic Hölder for the underlying density and obtain posterior rates that are minimax optimal and adaptive to the regularity of the density, to the intrinsic dimension of the manifold, and to the size of the offset, provided that the latter is not too small -- while still allowed to go to zero. Our Bayesian procedure, based on location-scale mixtures of Gaussians, appears to be convenient to implement and yields good practical results, even for quite singular data.

math.ST↗
arXiv2024

The Coreness and H-Index of Random Geometric Graphs

In network analysis, a measure of node centrality provides a scale indicating how central a node is within a network. The coreness is a popular notion of centrality that accounts for the maximal smallest degree of a subgraph containing a given node. In this paper, we study the coreness of random geometric graphs and show that, with an increasing number of nodes and properly chosen connectivity radius, the coreness converges to a new object, that we call the continuum coreness. In the process, we show that other popular notions of centrality measures, namely the H-index and its iterates, also converge under the same setting to new limiting objects.

math.ST↗
arXiv2024

A theory of stratification learning

Given i.i.d. sample from a stratified mixture of immersed manifolds of different dimensions, we study the minimax estimation of the underlying stratified structure. We provide a constructive algorithm allowing to estimate each mixture component at its optimal dimension-specific rate adaptively. The method is based on an ascending hierarchical co-detection of points belonging to different layers, which also identifies the number of layers and their dimensions, assigns each data point to a layer accurately, and estimates tangent spaces optimally. These results hold regardless of any ambient assumption on the manifolds or on their intersection configurations. They open the way to a broad clustering framework, where each mixture component models a cluster emanating from a specific nonlinear correlation phenomenon.

math.ST↗
arXiv2022

Optimal Reach Estimation and Metric Learning

We study the estimation of the reach, an ubiquitous regularity parameter in manifold estimation and geometric data analysis. Given an i.i.d. sample over an unknown $d$-dimensional $\mathcal{C}^k$-smooth submanifold of $\mathbb{R}^D$, we provide optimal nonasymptotic bounds for the estimation of its reach. We build upon a formulation of the reach in terms of maximal curvature on one hand, and geodesic metric distortion on the other hand. The derived rates are adaptive, with rates depending on whether the reach of $M$ arises from curvature or from a bottleneck structure. In the process, we derive optimal geodesic metric estimation bounds.

math.ST↗
arXiv2021

Estimating the reach of a manifold via its convexity defect function

The reach of a submanifold is a crucial regularity parameter for manifold learning and geometric inference from point clouds. This paper relates the reach of a submanifold to its convexity defect function. Using the stability properties of convexity defect functions, along with some new bounds and the recent submanifold estimator of Aamari and Levrard [Ann. Statist. 47 177-204 (2019)], an estimator for the reach is given. A uniform expected loss bound over a C^k model is found. Lower bounds for the minimax rate for estimating the reach over these models are also provided. The estimator almost achieves these rates in the C^3 and C^4 cases, with a gap given by a logarithmic factor.

math.ST↗
arXiv2020

Density estimation on an unknown submanifold

We investigate density estimation from a $n$-sample in the Euclidean space $\mathbb R^D$, when the data is supported by an unknown submanifold $M$ of possibly unknown dimension $d < D$ under a reach condition. We study nonparametric kernel methods for pointwise loss, with data-driven bandwidths that incorporate some learning of the geometry via a local dimension estimator. When $f$ has Hölder smoothness $β$ and $M$ has regularity $α$, our estimator achieves the rate $n^{-α\wedge β/(2α\wedge β+d)}$ and does not depend on the ambient dimension $D$ and is asymptotically minimax for $α\geq β$. Following Lepski's principle, a bandwidth selection rule is shown to achieve smoothness adaptation. We also investigate the case $α\leq β$: by estimating in some sense the underlying geometry of $M$, we establish in dimension $d=1$ that the minimax rate is $n^{-β/(2β+1)}$ proving in particular that it does not depend on the regularity of $M$. Finally, a numerical implementation is conducted on some case studies in order to confirm the practical feasibility of our estimators.

math.ST↗
arXiv2018

Some Random Paths with Angle Constraints

We propose a simple, geometrically-motivated construction of smooth random paths in the plane. The construction is such that, with probability one, the paths have finite curvature everywhere (and the realizations are visually pleasing when simulated on a computer). Our construction is Markov of order 2. We show that a simpler construction which is Markov of order 1 fails to exhibit the desired finite curvature property.

math.PR↗