arXiv subjects

Claire Monteleoni

Publications and source records attributed to Claire Monteleoni.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Learning from Local Walks on Dynamic Graphs with Bandit Feedback

We study stochastic multi-armed bandits on dynamic graphs, where arms correspond to the vertices of a network with time-varying edges. In this setting, the learner is restricted to local movement, selecting only its current node or an immediate neighbor at each round. This constraint decouples best-arm identification from exploitation: even after the optimal arm is identified, the learner may remain unable to reach it through the evolving topology. We identify a process-agnostic structural condition, based on sliding-window mixing, that ensures the graph's intrinsic walk remains stable for both exploration and navigation. Under this regime, we analyze a family of local explore-then-commit algorithms and establish sublinear expected regret. Our framework includes a reward-aware strategy, for which we prove a worst-case safety theorem and a separate performance gain theorem.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

MotifGen: Spatiotemporal interpolation of misaligned satellite images via multi-source generative modeling, in an application to tropical cyclones

Microwave satellite imagery plays a crucial role in monitoring tropical cyclone precipitation and intensity worldwide, but suffers from long revisit times, potentially missing rapid storm evolution phases. While this raises the need for an interpolation method, it is made challenging by the high level of heterogeneity of microwave data coming from different instruments. In this work, we introduce the first generative model that can be applied to multiple geospatial sources that change across samples, occur at irregular time intervals, are misaligned geographically, and come from instruments with varying characteristics. We apply this model to the case of spatio-temporal interpolation of tropical cyclone microwave images from other microwave and infrared instruments. We train using a self-supervised task in which a random source is masked and reconstructed, and show that it leads to a significant decrease in Continuous Ranked Probability Score over supervised training. We show a further improvement by combining infrared and microwave data compared to microwave only. Using these improvements, the generative model produces an ensemble mean on par with that of a deterministic model, while generating a power spectrum significantly closer to that of true observations. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first generative model that interpolates microwave images of cyclones by combining multiple microwave instruments and infrared observations at irregular time intervals.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2026

Evaluating Skill and Stability of ArchesWeather and ArchesWeatherGen under Multi-Decadal Climate Simulations

We evaluate the climate simulation capabilities of ArchesWeather and ArchesWeatherGen, two machine learning models originally trained for weather forecasting and evaluated up to a 10-day lead time. ArchesWeather is a deterministic model, while ArchesWeatherGen is a probabilistic flow-matching model leveraging ArchesWeather's forecasts, enabling ensemble-based uncertainty quantification. In this work, we adapt these models to act as forced atmospheric models by using additional conditioning on the monthly mean sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice cover (SIC) as boundary conditions. In particular, we follow the AI Model Intercomparison Project (AIMIP) Phase 1 protocol, which, analogous to the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP), proposes a standardized experimental setup to evaluate the climate skill of ML-based forced atmospheric models. We present a comprehensive evaluation of both models under these conditions, including comparison against numerical climate models, ablation studies that examine key design choices in the extension, and an analysis of forced versus unforced configurations. Despite being originally developed for weather forecasting, we demonstrate that forced configurations of ArchesWeather and ArchesWeatherGen produce stable long-term climate simulations, have a stable annual cycle, and capture the drift of many climate variables. The models faithfully reproduce ERA5's climatology, large-scale circulations and interannual variability, and they capture the tails of the distributions.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2026

Emulating the Forced Response of Climate Models with Generative Machine Learning

Global climate models are essential tools to simulate past and potential future pathways of climate change, as well as associated climate impacts. Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) describe a range of future scenarios of global economic and demographic development. These SSPs are intrinsically linked to changes in climate forcings -- the external drivers, such as greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions, which change Earth's energy balance over time. These forcings act as boundary conditions in Earth System Models (ESM), providing insight into the potential climatic impacts of each SSP. Running an ESM, however, is extremely computationally expensive, conflicting with the need for large ensemble runs to provide robust estimates in the presence of internal variability and scenario uncertainty. Machine Learning emulators provide a promising avenue towards fast and cheap scenario generation, but until recently lacked uncertainty quantification and the ability to condition on external forcings. Here, we build upon recent work and extend it by training on multiple SSPs. We successfully generate scenarios of IPSL -- CM6A -- LR unseen during training and remain physically consistent with the underlying climate model, even under strong extrapolation scenarios. Our emulator is validated against MESMER -- M, a statistical emulator of land surface temperature. Our research demonstrates that our model, ArchesClimate -- SSP, does not simply imitate scenarios seen during training, but is actually capable of modeling the response of a climate state to diverse forcings. This is an important step towards reliable and rapid climate model scenario generation.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Generative Unsupervised Downscaling of Climate Models via Domain Alignment: Application to Wind Fields

General Circulation Models (GCMs) are widely used for future climate projections, but their coarse spatial resolution and systematic biases limit their direct use for impact studies. This limitation is particularly critical for wind-related applications, such as wind energy, which require spatially coherent, multivariate, and physically plausible near-surface wind fields. Classical statistical downscaling and bias correction methods partly address this issue. Still, they struggle to preserve spatial structure, inter-variable consistency, and robustness under climate change, especially in high-dimensional settings. Recent advances in generative machine learning offer new opportunities for downscaling and bias correction, eliminating the need for explicitly paired low- and high-resolution datasets. However, many existing approaches remain difficult to interpret and challenging to deploy in operational climate impact studies. In this work, we apply SerpentFlow, an interpretable, generative, domain alignment framework, to the multivariate downscaling and bias correction of wind variables from GCM outputs. This is a method that generates low-resolution/high-resolution training data pairs by separating large-scale spatial patterns from small-scale variability. Large-scale components are aligned across climate model and observational domains. Conditional fine-scale variability is then learned using a flow-matching generative model. We apply the approach to multiple wind variables downscaling, including average and maximal wind speed, zonal and meridional components, and compare it with widely used multivariate bias correction methods. Results show improved spatial coherence, inter-variable consistency, and robustness under future climate conditions, highlighting the potential of interpretable generative models for wind and energy applications.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2026

A Unified Framework for Locality in Scalable MARL

Scalable methods for networked multi-agent reinforcement learning let each agent plan using only a small neighborhood of the agent graph. This works only when the system is value-local, meaning a perturbation at one agent affects the long-run value at another agent weakly when the two are far apart. In the average-reward setting, the standard way to certify locality is the Dobrushin row-sum bound on a single matrix $C^\pi$ that captures how each agent's next state depends on each other agent's current state. To make this matrix easy to work with, prior work bounds it by a supremum over joint actions. The resulting bound is independent of the policy, but it is loose whenever the policy never picks the worst-case action. We split $C^\pi$ into pieces that separately track environment sensitivity and policy sensitivity, $C^\pi \preceq E^{\mathrm s}+E^{\mathrm a}\Pi(\pi)$, where $E^{\mathrm s}$ measures how the next state moves with the current state, $E^{\mathrm a}$ measures how it moves with the current action, and $\Pi(\pi)$ measures how reactive the policy is to changes in state. The spectral radius of $H^\pi := E^{\mathrm s}+E^{\mathrm a}\Pi(\pi)$ then controls the decay of the average-reward Poisson solution, and the spectral certificate $\rho(H^\pi)<1$ is strictly weaker than the row-sum condition $\|H^\pi\|_\infty<1$ on the same matrix and applies in regimes where policy-independent action-supremum bounds used in prior Dobrushin-style work cannot. For temperature-$\tau$ softmax policies we get $\Pi(\pi)\le L/(2\tau)$, so the softmax temperature directly controls locality. We use this decay result to give a deterministic oracle guarantee for a block-coordinate KL-proximal policy-improvement template whose truncation bias decays exponentially in the message-passing radius $\kappa$.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Flickering Multi-Armed Bandits

We introduce Flickering Multi-Armed Bandits (FMAB) to model sequential decision-making in environments with changing action availability, where accessibility of the next action is restricted to a subset dependent on the agent's current choice. We formalize these constraints through stochastically evolving graphs where actions are limited to local neighborhoods. This mobility-constrained structure imposes a dual challenge: the statistical requirement of information acquisition and the physical overhead of navigation. We analyze FMAB under i.i.d. Erd\H{o}s--R'enyi and Edge-Markovian process, proposing a two-phase lazy random walk algorithm for robust exploration. We establish high-probability sublinear regret bounds and prove near-optimality via a matching information-theoretic lower bound. Our results characterize the intrinsic cost of learning under local-move constraints, complemented by a robotic disaster-response simulation.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Multi-Agent Lipschitz Bandits

We study the decentralized multi-player stochastic bandit problem over a continuous, Lipschitz-structured action space where hard collisions yield zero reward. Our objective is to design a communication-free policy that maximizes collective reward, while separating coordination costs from learning costs. We propose a modular protocol that first solves the multi-agent coordination problem by identifying and seating players on distinct, high-value regions via a novel maxima-directed search and then decouples the problem into $N$ independent single-player Lipschitz bandits. In the consensus regime, we obtain an end-to-end regret bound whose dominant learning term is $\tilde{O}(T^{(d+1)/(d+2)})$, matching the single-player Lipschitz rate; the upfront coordination cost is horizon-independent at fixed confidence and only polylogarithmic in $T$ in the expected-regret form. Under an additional public coverage/scheduling assumption for the epochic extension, we also obtain a gap-free $\tilde{O}(T^{(d+1)/(d+2)})$ guarantee. We further derive a matching lower bound for the dominant learning term and extend the framework to general distance-threshold collision models.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

STIPP: Space-time in situ postprocessing over the French Alps using proper scoring rules

We propose Space-time in situ postprocessing (STIPP), a machine learning model that generates spatio-temporally consistent weather forecasts for a network of station locations. Gridded forecasts from classical numerical weather prediction or data-driven models often lack the necessary precision due to unresolved local effects. Typical statistical postprocessing methods correct these biases, but often degrade spatio-temporal correlation structures in doing so. Recent works based on generative modeling successfully improve spatial correlation structures but have to forecast every lead time independently. In contrast, STIPP makes joint spatio-temporal forecasts which have increased accuracy for surface temperature, wind, relative humidity and precipitation when compared to baseline methods. It makes hourly ensemble predictions given only a six-hourly deterministic forecast, blending the boundaries of postprocessing and temporal interpolation. By leveraging a multivariate proper scoring rule for training, STIPP contributes to ongoing work data-driven atmospheric models supervised only with distribution marginals.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2026

SerpentFlow: Generative Unpaired Domain Alignment via Shared-Structure Decomposition

Domain alignment refers broadly to learning correspondences between data distributions from distinct domains. In this work, we focus on a setting where domains share underlying structural patterns despite differences in their specific realizations. The task is particularly challenging in the absence of paired observations, which removes direct supervision across domains. We introduce a generative framework, called SerpentFlow (SharEd-structuRe decomPosition for gEnerative domaiN adapTation), for unpaired domain alignment. SerpentFlow decomposes data within a latent space into a shared component common to both domains and a domain-specific one. By isolating the shared structure and replacing the domain-specific component with stochastic noise, we construct synthetic training pairs between shared representations and target-domain samples, thereby enabling the use of conditional generative models that are traditionally restricted to paired settings. We apply this approach to super-resolution tasks, where the shared component naturally corresponds to low-frequency content while high-frequency details capture domain-specific variability. The cutoff frequency separating low- and high-frequency components is determined automatically using a classifier-based criterion, ensuring a data-driven and domain-adaptive decomposition. By generating pseudo-pairs that preserve low-frequency structures while injecting stochastic high-frequency realizations, we learn the conditional distribution of the target domain given the shared representation. We implement SerpentFlow using Flow Matching as the generative pipeline, although the framework is compatible with other conditional generative approaches. Experiments on synthetic images, physical process simulations, and a climate downscaling task demonstrate that the method effectively reconstructs high-frequency structures consistent with underlying low-frequency patterns, supporting shared-structure decomposition as an effective strategy for unpaired domain alignment.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

ArchesClimate: Probabilistic Decadal Ensemble Generation With Flow Matching

Internal variability is a dominant contributor to the uncertainty of predictions at the interannual to decadal timescale. A typical approach to separating the internal variability from forced climate responses is to generate large ensembles of simulations under different initial conditions. Due to the complexity of Earth System Models, generating these large ensembles is computationally expensive. In this work, we present ArchesClimate, a deep learning-based climate model emulator designed to reduce the cost of exploring internal variability at timescales ranging from monthly to decadal. ArchesClimate is trained on decadal hindcasts of the IPSL-CM6A-LR climate model. We train a flow matching model following ArchesWeatherGen, which we adapt to predict near-term climate. Once trained, the model generates states at a one-month lead time from the states of the two preceding months, and can be used to auto-regressively emulate climate model simulations. We show that for up to 10 years, these generations are stable and physically consistent. We also show that for several important climate variables, ArchesClimate generates simulations that are interchangeable with the IPSL model. This work suggests that climate model emulators could reduce the cost of generating large ensembles with climate models.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2025

Incentivized Lipschitz Bandits

We study incentivized exploration in multi-armed bandit (MAB) settings with infinitely many arms modeled as elements in continuous metric spaces. Unlike classical bandit models, we consider scenarios where the decision-maker (principal) incentivizes myopic agents to explore beyond their greedy choices through compensation, but with the complication of reward drift--biased feedback arising due to the incentives. We propose novel incentivized exploration algorithms that discretize the infinite arm space uniformly and demonstrate that these algorithms simultaneously achieve sublinear cumulative regret and sublinear total compensation. Specifically, we derive regret and compensation bounds of $\Tilde{O}(T^{d+1/d+2})$, with $d$ representing the covering dimension of the metric space. Furthermore, we generalize our results to contextual bandits, achieving comparable performance guarantees. We validate our theoretical findings through numerical simulations.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Generating ensembles of spatially-coherent in-situ forecasts using flow matching

We propose a machine-learning-based methodology for in-situ weather forecast postprocessing that is both spatially coherent and multivariate. Compared to previous work, our Flow MAtching Postprocessing (FMAP) better represents the correlation structures of the observations distribution, while also improving marginal performance at the stations. FMAP generates forecasts that are not bound to what is already modeled by the underlying gridded prediction and can infer new correlation structures from data. The resulting model can generate an arbitrary number of forecasts from a limited number of numerical simulations, allowing for low-cost forecasting systems. A single training is sufficient to perform postprocessing at multiple lead times, in contrast with other methods which use multiple trained networks at generation time. This work details our methodology, including a spatial attention transformer backbone trained within a flow matching generative modeling framework. FMAP shows promising performance in experiments on the EUPPBench dataset, forecasting surface temperature and wind gust values at station locations in western Europe up to five-day lead times.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2025

Deep Clustering via Probabilistic Ratio-Cut Optimization

We propose a novel approach for optimizing the graph ratio-cut by modeling the binary assignments as random variables. We provide an upper bound on the expected ratio-cut, as well as an unbiased estimate of its gradient, to learn the parameters of the assignment variables in an online setting. The clustering resulting from our probabilistic approach (PRCut) outperforms the Rayleigh quotient relaxation of the combinatorial problem, its online learning extensions, and several widely used methods. We demonstrate that the PRCut clustering closely aligns with the similarity measure and can perform as well as a supervised classifier when label-based similarities are provided. This novel approach can leverage out-of-the-box self-supervised representations to achieve competitive performance and serve as an evaluation method for the quality of these representations.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Hamiltonian Learning using Machine Learning Models Trained with Continuous Measurements

We build upon recent work on using Machine Learning models to estimate Hamiltonian parameters using continuous weak measurement of qubits as input. We consider two settings for the training of our model: (1) supervised learning where the weak measurement training record can be labeled with known Hamiltonian parameters, and (2) unsupervised learning where no labels are available. The first has the advantage of not requiring an explicit representation of the quantum state, thus potentially scaling very favorably to larger number of qubits. The second requires the implementation of a physical model to map the Hamiltonian parameters to a measurement record, which we implement using an integrator of the physical model with a recurrent neural network to provide a model-free correction at every time step to account for small effects not captured by the physical model. We test our construction on a system of two qubits and demonstrate accurate prediction of multiple physical parameters in both the supervised and unsupervised context. We demonstrate that the model benefits from larger training sets establishing that it is in fact "learning," and we show robustness to errors in the assumed physical model by achieving accurate parameter estimation in the presence of unanticipated single particle relaxation.

quant-ph↗

arXiv2024

Where Did Your Model Learn That? Label-free Influence for Self-supervised Learning

Self-supervised learning (SSL) has revolutionized learning from large-scale unlabeled datasets, yet the intrinsic relationship between pretraining data and the learned representations remains poorly understood. Traditional supervised learning benefits from gradient-based data attribution tools like influence functions that measure the contribution of an individual data point to model predictions. However, existing definitions of influence rely on labels, making them unsuitable for SSL settings. We address this gap by introducing Influence-SSL, a novel and label-free approach for defining influence functions tailored to SSL. Our method harnesses the stability of learned representations against data augmentations to identify training examples that help explain model predictions. We provide both theoretical foundations and empirical evidence to show the utility of Influence-SSL in analyzing pre-trained SSL models. Our analysis reveals notable differences in how SSL models respond to influential data compared to supervised models. Finally, we validate the effectiveness of Influence-SSL through applications in duplicate detection, outlier identification and fairness analysis. Code is available at: \url{https://github.com/cryptonymous9/Influence-SSL}.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

ArchesWeather & ArchesWeatherGen: a deterministic and generative model for efficient ML weather forecasting

Weather forecasting plays a vital role in today's society, from agriculture and logistics to predicting the output of renewable energies, and preparing for extreme weather events. Deep learning weather forecasting models trained with the next state prediction objective on ERA5 have shown great success compared to numerical global circulation models. However, for a wide range of applications, being able to provide representative samples from the distribution of possible future weather states is critical. In this paper, we propose a methodology to leverage deterministic weather models in the design of probabilistic weather models, leading to improved performance and reduced computing costs. We first introduce \textbf{ArchesWeather}, a transformer-based deterministic model that improves upon Pangu-Weather by removing overrestrictive inductive priors. We then design a probabilistic weather model called \textbf{ArchesWeatherGen} based on flow matching, a modern variant of diffusion models, that is trained to project ArchesWeather's predictions to the distribution of ERA5 weather states. ArchesWeatherGen is a true stochastic emulator of ERA5 and surpasses IFS ENS and NeuralGCM on all WeatherBench headline variables (except for NeuralGCM's geopotential). Our work also aims to democratize the use of deterministic and generative machine learning models in weather forecasting research, with academic computing resources. All models are trained at 1.5° resolution, with a training budget of $\sim$9 V100 days for ArchesWeather and $\sim$45 V100 days for ArchesWeatherGen. For inference, ArchesWeatherGen generates 15-day weather trajectories at a rate of 1 minute per ensemble member on a A100 GPU card. To make our work fully reproducible, our code and models are open source, including the complete pipeline for data preparation, training, and evaluation, at https://github.com/INRIA/geoarches .

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

MixDiff: Mixing Natural and Synthetic Images for Robust Self-Supervised Representations

This paper introduces MixDiff, a new self-supervised learning (SSL) pre-training framework that combines real and synthetic images. Unlike traditional SSL methods that predominantly use real images, MixDiff uses a variant of Stable Diffusion to replace an augmented instance of a real image, facilitating the learning of cross real-synthetic image representations. Our key insight is that while models trained solely on synthetic images underperform, combining real and synthetic data leads to more robust and adaptable representations. Experiments show MixDiff enhances SimCLR, BarlowTwins, and DINO across various robustness datasets and domain transfer tasks, boosting SimCLR's ImageNet-1K accuracy by 4.56%. Our framework also demonstrates comparable performance without needing any augmentations, a surprising finding in SSL where augmentations are typically crucial.

cs.CV↗