arXiv subjects

Claudia Schillings

Publications and source records attributed to Claudia Schillings.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Quasi-Monte Carlo for Bayesian design of experiment problems governed by parametric PDEs

This paper contributes to the study of optimal experimental design for Bayesian inverse problems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs). We derive estimates for the parametric regularity of multivariate double integration problems over high-dimensional parameter and data domains arising in Bayesian optimal design problems. We provide a detailed analysis for these double integration problems using two approaches: a full tensor product and a sparse tensor product combination of quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) cubature rules over the parameter and data domains. Specifically, we show that the latter approach significantly improves the convergence rate, exhibiting performance comparable to that of QMC integration of a single high-dimensional integral. Furthermore, we numerically verify the predicted convergence rates for an elliptic PDE problem with an unknown diffusion coefficient in two spatial dimensions, offering empirical evidence supporting the theoretical results and highlighting practical applicability.

math.NA↗

arXiv2026

Lattice Rules Meet Kernel Cubature

Rank-1 lattice rules are a class of equally weighted quasi-Monte Carlo methods that achieve essentially linear convergence rates for functions in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) characterized by square-integrable first-order mixed partial derivatives. In this work, we explore the impact of replacing the equal weights in lattice rules with optimized cubature weights derived using the reproducing kernel. We establish a theoretical result demonstrating a doubled convergence rate in the one-dimensional case and provide numerical investigations of convergence rates in higher dimensions. We also present numerical results for an uncertainty quantification problem involving an elliptic partial differential equation with a random coefficient.

math.NA↗

arXiv2026

Quasi-Monte Carlo for Bayesian shape inversion governed by the Poisson problem subject to Gevrey regular domain deformations

We consider the application of a quasi-Monte Carlo cubature rule to Bayesian shape inversion subject to the Poisson equation under Gevrey regular parameterizations of domain uncertainty. We analyze the parametric regularity of the associated posterior distribution and design randomly shifted rank-1 lattice rules which can be shown to achieve dimension-independent, faster-than-Monte Carlo cubature convergence rates for high-dimensional integrals over the posterior distribution. In addition, we consider the effect of dimension truncation and finite element discretization errors for this model. Finally, a series of numerical experiments are presented to validate the theoretical results.

math.NA↗

arXiv2026

Mixture-Weighted Ensemble Kalman Filter with Quasi-Monte Carlo Transport

The Bootstrap Particle Filter (BPF) and the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) are two widely used methods for sequential Bayesian filtering: the BPF is asymptotically exact but can suffer from weight degeneracy, while the EnKF scales well in high dimension (typically with localization) yet is exact only in the linear-Gaussian case. We combine these approaches by retaining the EnKF transport step and adding a principled importance-sampling correction. Our first contribution is a general importance-sampling theory for mixture targets and proposals, including variance comparisons between individual- and mixture-based estimators. We then interpret the stochastic EnKF analysis as sampling from explicit Gaussian-mixture proposals obtained by conditioning on the current or previous ensemble, which leads to six self-normalized IS-EnKF schemes. We embed these updates into a broader class of ensemble-based filters and prove consistency and error bounds, including weight-variance comparisons and sufficient conditions ensuring finite-variance importance weights. As a second contribution, we construct transported quasi-Monte Carlo (TQMC) point sets for the Gaussian-mixture laws arising in prediction and analysis, yielding TQMC-enhanced variants that can substantially reduce sampling error without changing the filtering pipeline. Numerical experiments on benchmark models compare the proposed mixture-weighted and TQMC-enhanced filters, showing improved filtering accuracy relative to BPF, EnKF, and the standard weighted EnKF, and that the weighted schemes eliminate the EnKF error plateau often caused by analysis-target mismatch.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

Uncertainty quantification for stationary and time-dependent PDEs subject to Gevrey regular random domain deformations

We study uncertainty quantification for partial differential equations subject to domain uncertainty. We parameterize the random domain using the model recently considered by Chernov and Le (2024) as well as Harbrecht, Schmidlin, and Schwab (2024) in which the input random field is assumed to belong to a Gevrey smoothness class. This approach has the advantage of being substantially more general than models which assume a particular parametric representation of the input random field such as a Karhunen-Loeve series expansion. We consider both the Poisson equation as well as the heat equation and design randomly shifted lattice quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) cubature rules for the computation of the expected solution under domain uncertainty. We show that these QMC rules exhibit dimension-independent, essentially linear cubature convergence rates in this framework. In addition, we complete the error analysis by taking into account the approximation errors incurred by dimension truncation of the random input field and finite element discretization. Numerical experiments are presented to confirm the theoretical rates.

math.NA↗

arXiv2025

Affine Invariant Langevin Dynamics for rare-event sampling

We introduce an affine invariant Langevin dynamics (ALDI) framework for the efficient estimation of rare events in nonlinear dynamical systems. Rare events are formulated as Bayesian inverse problems through a nonsmooth limit-state function whose zero level set characterises the event of interest. To overcome the nondifferentiability of this function, we propose a smooth approximation that preserves the failure set and yields a posterior distribution satisfying the small-noise limit. The resulting potential is sampled by ALDI, a (derivative-free) interacting particle system whose affine invariance allows it to adapt to the local anisotropy of the posterior. We demonstrate the performance of the method across a hierarchy of benchmarks, namely two low-dimensional examples (an algebraic problem with convex geometry and a dynamical problem of saddle-type instability) and a point-vortex model for atmospheric blockings. In all cases, ALDI concentrates near the relevant near-critical sets and provides accurate proposal distributions for self-normalised importance sampling. The framework is computationally robust, potentially gradient-free, and well-suited for complex forward models with strong geometric anisotropy. These results highlight ALDI as a promising tool for rare-event estimation in unstable regimes of dynamical systems.

math.NA↗

arXiv2025

Provable Mixed-Noise Learning with Flow-Matching

We study Bayesian inverse problems with mixed noise, modeled as a combination of additive and multiplicative Gaussian components. While traditional inference methods often assume fixed or known noise characteristics, real-world applications, particularly in physics and chemistry, frequently involve noise with unknown and heterogeneous structure. Motivated by recent advances in flow-based generative modeling, we propose a novel inference framework based on conditional flow matching embedded within an Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm to jointly estimate posterior samplers and noise parameters. To enable high-dimensional inference and improve scalability, we use simulation-free ODE-based flow matching as the generative model in the E-step of the EM algorithm. We prove that, under suitable assumptions, the EM updates converge to the true noise parameters in the population limit of infinite observations. Our numerical results illustrate the effectiveness of combining EM inference with flow matching for mixed-noise Bayesian inverse problems.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Gradient-Free Sequential Bayesian Experimental Design via Interacting Particle Systems

We introduce a gradient-free framework for Bayesian Optimal Experimental Design (BOED) in sequential settings, aimed at complex systems where gradient information is unavailable. Our method combines Ensemble Kalman Inversion (EKI) for design optimization with the Affine-Invariant Langevin Dynamics (ALDI) sampler for efficient posterior sampling-both of which are derivative-free and ensemble-based. To address the computational challenges posed by nested expectations in BOED, we propose variational Gaussian and parametrized Laplace approximations that provide tractable upper and lower bounds on the Expected Information Gain (EIG). These approximations enable scalable utility estimation in high-dimensional spaces and PDE-constrained inverse problems. We demonstrate the performance of our framework through numerical experiments ranging from linear Gaussian models to PDE-based inference tasks, highlighting the method's robustness, accuracy, and efficiency in information-driven experimental design.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

An optimal experimental design approach to sensor placement in continuous stochastic filtering

Sequential filtering and spatial inverse problems assimilate data points distributed either temporally (in the case of filtering) or spatially (in the case of spatial inverse problems). Sometimes it is possible to choose the position of these data points (which we call sensors here) in advance, with the goal of maximising the expected information gain (or a different metric of performance) from future data, and this leads to an Optimal Experimental Design (OED) problem. Here we revisit an interpretation of optimising sensor placement as an integration with respect to a general probability measure $ξ$. This generalises the problem of discrete-time sensor placement (which corresponds to the special case where the probability measure is a mixture of Diracs) to an infinite-dimensional, but mathematically more well-behaved setting. We focus on the continuous-time stochastic filtering setting, whose solution is governed by the Zakai equation. We derive an expression for the Fréchet derivative of a general OED utility functional, the key to which is an adjoint (backwards in time) differential equation. This paves the way for utilising new gradient-based methods for solving the corresponding optimisation problem, as a potentially more efficient alternative to (semi-)discrete optimisation methods, e.g. based on greedy insertion and deletion of sensor placements.

math.ST↗

arXiv2025

Accuracy Boost in Ensemble Kalman Inversion via Ensemble Control Strategies

The Ensemble Kalman Inversion (EKI) method is widely used for solving inverse problems, leveraging ensemble-based techniques to iteratively refine parameter estimates. Despite its versatility, the accuracy of EKI is constrained by the subspace spanned by the initial ensemble, which may poorly represent the solution in cases of limited prior knowledge. This work addresses these limitations by optimising the subspace in which EKI operates, improving accuracy and computational efficiency. We derive a theoretical framework for constructing optimal subspaces in linear settings and extend these insights to nonlinear cases. A novel greedy strategy for selecting initial ensemble members is proposed, incorporating prior, data, and model information to enhance performance. Numerical experiments on both linear and nonlinear problems demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach, offering a significant advancement in the accuracy and scalability of EKI for high-dimensional and ill-posed problems.

math.NA↗

arXiv2024

A Gauss-Newton Method for ODE Optimal Tracking Control

This paper introduces and analyses a continuous optimization approach to solve optimal control problems involving ordinary differential equations (ODEs) and tracking type objectives. Our aim is to determine control or input functions, and potentially uncertain model parameters, for a dynamical system described by an ODE. We establish the mathematical framework and define the optimal control problem with a tracking functional, incorporating regularization terms and box-constraints for model parameters and input functions. Treating the problem as an infinite-dimensional optimization problem, we employ a Gauss-Newton method within a suitable function space framework. This leads to an iterative process where, at each step, we solve a linearization of the problem by considering a linear surrogate model around the current solution estimate. The resulting linear auxiliary problem resembles a linear-quadratic ODE optimal tracking control problem, which we tackle using either a gradient descent method in function spaces or a Riccati-based approach. Finally, we present and analyze the efficacy of our method through numerical experiments.

math.OC↗

arXiv2024

Parabolic PDE-constrained optimal control under uncertainty with entropic risk measure using quasi-Monte Carlo integration

We study the application of a tailored quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) method to a class of optimal control problems subject to parabolic partial differential equation (PDE) constraints under uncertainty: the state in our setting is the solution of a parabolic PDE with a random thermal diffusion coefficient, steered by a control function. To account for the presence of uncertainty in the optimal control problem, the objective function is composed with a risk measure. We focus on two risk measures, both involving high-dimensional integrals over the stochastic variables: the expected value and the (nonlinear) entropic risk measure. The high-dimensional integrals are computed numerically using specially designed QMC methods and, under moderate assumptions on the input random field, the error rate is shown to be essentially linear, independently of the stochastic dimension of the problem -- and thereby superior to ordinary Monte Carlo methods. Numerical results demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

math.NA↗

arXiv2024

Generative Modelling with Tensor Train approximations of Hamilton--Jacobi--Bellman equations

Sampling from probability densities is a common challenge in fields such as Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) and Generative Modelling (GM). In GM in particular, the use of reverse-time diffusion processes depending on the log-densities of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck forward processes are a popular sampling tool. In Berner et al. [2022] the authors point out that these log-densities can be obtained by solution of a \textit{Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman} (HJB) equation known from stochastic optimal control. While this HJB equation is usually treated with indirect methods such as policy iteration and unsupervised training of black-box architectures like Neural Networks, we propose instead to solve the HJB equation by direct time integration, using compressed polynomials represented in the Tensor Train (TT) format for spatial discretization. Crucially, this method is sample-free, agnostic to normalization constants and can avoid the curse of dimensionality due to the TT compression. We provide a complete derivation of the HJB equation's action on Tensor Train polynomials and demonstrate the performance of the proposed time-step-, rank- and degree-adaptive integration method on a nonlinear sampling task in 20 dimensions.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2023

One-shot Learning of Surrogates in PDE-constrained Optimization Under Uncertainty

We propose a general framework for machine learning based optimization under uncertainty. Our approach replaces the complex forward model by a surrogate, which is learned simultaneously in a one-shot sense when solving the optimal control problem. Our approach relies on a reformulation of the problem as a penalized empirical risk minimization problem for which we provide a consistency analysis in terms of large data and increasing penalty parameter. To solve the resulting problem, we suggest a stochastic gradient method with adaptive control of the penalty parameter and prove convergence under suitable assumptions on the surrogate model. Numerical experiments illustrate the results for linear and nonlinear surrogate models.

math.OC↗

arXiv2023

Ensemble Kalman Inversion for Image Guided Guide Wire Navigation in Vascular Systems

This paper addresses the challenging task of guide wire navigation in cardiovascular interventions, focusing on the parameter estimation of a guide wire system using Ensemble Kalman Inversion (EKI) with a subsampling technique. The EKI uses an ensemble of particles to estimate the unknown quantities. However since the data misfit has to be computed for each particle in each iteration, the EKI may become computationally infeasible in the case of high-dimensional data, e.g. high-resolution images. This issue can been addressed by randomised algorithms that utilize only a random subset of the data in each iteration. We introduce and analyse a subsampling technique for the EKI, which is based on a continuous-time representation of stochastic gradient methods and apply it to on the parameter estimation of our guide wire system. Numerical experiments with real data from a simplified test setting demonstrate the potential of the method.

math.NA↗

arXiv2023

Subsampling in ensemble Kalman inversion

We consider the Ensemble Kalman Inversion which has been recently introduced as an efficient, gradient-free optimisation method to estimate unknown parameters in an inverse setting. In the case of large data sets, the Ensemble Kalman Inversion becomes computationally infeasible as the data misfit needs to be evaluated for each particle in each iteration. Here, randomised algorithms like stochastic gradient descent have been demonstrated to successfully overcome this issue by using only a random subset of the data in each iteration, so-called subsampling techniques. Based on a recent analysis of a continuous-time representation of stochastic gradient methods, we propose, analyse, and apply subsampling-techniques within Ensemble Kalman Inversion. Indeed, we propose two different subsampling techniques: either every particle observes the same data subset (single subsampling) or every particle observes a different data subset (batch subsampling).

math.NA↗

arXiv2023

On the concentration of subgaussian vectors and positive quadratic forms in Hilbert spaces

In these notes, we investigate the tail behaviour of the norm of subgaussian vectors in a Hilbert space. The subgaussian variance proxy is given as a trace class operator, allowing for a precise control of the moments along each dimension of the space. This leads to useful extensions and analogues of known Hoeffding-type inequalities and deviation bounds for positive random quadratic forms. We give a straightforward application in terms of a variance bound for the regularisation of statistical inverse problems.

math.PR↗

arXiv2023

Happy People -- Image Synthesis as Black-Box Optimization Problem in the Discrete Latent Space of Deep Generative Models

In recent years, optimization in the learned latent space of deep generative models has been successfully applied to black-box optimization problems such as drug design, image generation or neural architecture search. Existing models thereby leverage the ability of neural models to learn the data distribution from a limited amount of samples such that new samples from the distribution can be drawn. In this work, we propose a novel image generative approach that optimizes the generated sample with respect to a continuously quantifiable property. While we anticipate absolutely no practically meaningful application for the proposed framework, it is theoretically principled and allows to quickly propose samples at the mere boundary of the training data distribution. Specifically, we propose to use tree-based ensemble models as mathematical programs over the discrete latent space of vector quantized VAEs, which can be globally solved. Subsequent weighted retraining on these queries allows to induce a distribution shift. In lack of a practically relevant problem, we consider a visually appealing application: the generation of happily smiling faces (where the training distribution only contains less happy people) - and show the principled behavior of our approach in terms of improved FID and higher smile degree over baseline approaches.

cs.CV↗