arXiv subjects

Claudio Corti

Publications and source records attributed to Claudio Corti.

10 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Simulated Operational Testing of the Prototype Implementation of the SOFIE Model: The 2025 Space Weather Prediction Testbed Exercise

The CLEAR Space Weather Center of Excellence's solar energetic particle (SEP) model, SOlar wind with FIeld lines and Energetic particles (SOFIE), was run and evaluated on-site during the Space Weather Prediction Testbed (SWPT) exercise at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA/SWPC) in May 2025. As a physics-based SEP model, SOFIE simulates the acceleration and transport of energetic particles by the coronal mass ejection (CME)-driven shock in the solar corona and inner heliosphere, and has been validated against historical events. However, questions remain regarding whether a physics-based model, traditionally considered computationally expensive, could meet operational needs. The SWPT exercise offered a valuable opportunity to evaluate SOFIE under simulated operational conditions. On-site interactive feedback from SWPC forecasters, Space Radiation Analysis Group (SRAG) console operators, Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) personnel, and Moon-to-Mars Space Weather Analysis Office (M2M SWAO) analysts led to significant strategic improvements in the model configuration. The simulation grid was optimized by combining a coarser background grid with higher-resolution regions along the CME path and toward Earth, reducing computational cost without compromising accuracy. In this work, we present the simulated operational performance of SOFIE and its capability to predict SEP fluxes significantly faster than real time. During the SWPT exercise, SOFIE completed a 4-day SEP simulation within 5 hours using 1,000 central processing unit cores, although the earliest SEP forecast was obtained a few hours after CME onset. This marks a milestone in demonstrating SOFIE's operational usefulness and robustness to support future human space exploration.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2024

Neural Surrogate HMC: On Using Neural Likelihoods for Hamiltonian Monte Carlo in Simulation-Based Inference

Bayesian inference methods such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) typically require repeated computations of the likelihood function, but in some scenarios this is infeasible and alternative methods are needed. Simulation-based inference (SBI) methods address this problem by using machine learning to amortize computations. In this work, we highlight a particular synergy between the SBI method of neural likelihood estimation and the classic MCMC method of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. We show that approximating the likelihood function with a neural network model can provide three distinct advantages: (1) amortizing the computations for MCMC; (2) providing gradients for Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, and (3) smoothing over noisy simulations resulting from numerical instabilities. We provide practical guidelines for defining a prior, sampling a training set, and evaluating convergence. The method is demonstrated in an application modeling the heliospheric transport of galactic cosmic rays, where it enables efficient inference of latent parameters in the Parker equation.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Constraining the global heliospheric transport of galactic cosmic rays in solar cycles 23 and 24

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2022

Galactic Cosmic Rays and Solar Energetic Particles in Cis-Lunar Space: Need for contextual energetic particle measurements at Earth and supporting distributed observations

The particle and radiation environment in cis-lunar space is becoming increasingly important as more hardware and human assets occupy various orbits around the Earth and space exploration efforts turn to the Moon and beyond. Since 2020, the total number of satellites in orbit has approximately doubled, highlighting the growing dependence on space-based resources. Through NASA's upcoming Artemis missions, humans will spend more time in cis-lunar space than ever before supported by the expansive infrastructure required for extended missions to the Moon, including a surface habitat, a communications network, and the Lunar Gateway. This paper focuses on galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) and solar energetic particles (SEPs) that create a dynamic and varying radiation environment within these regions. GCRs are particles of hundreds of MeV/nucleon (MeV/n) and above generated in highly energetic astrophysical environments in the Milky Way Galaxy, such as supernovae and pulsars, and beyond. These particles impinge isotropically on the heliosphere and are filtered down to 1 AU, experiencing modulation in energy and intensity on multiple timescales, from hours to decades, due to the solar magnetic cycle and other transient phenomena. SEPs are particles with energies up to thousands of MeV/n that are accelerated in eruptive events on the Sun and flood the inner heliosphere causing sudden and drastic increases in the particle environment on timescales of minutes to days. This paper highlights a current and prospective future gap in energetic particle measurements in the hundreds of MeV/n. We recommend key observations near Earth to act as a baseline as well as distributed measurements in the heliosphere, magnetosphere, and lunar surface to improve the scientific understanding of these particle populations and sources.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2019

Test of validity of the force-field approximation with AMS-02 and PAMELA monthly fluxes

Galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) entering the heliosphere are disturbed by the magnetic field of the Sun, which varies the shape and intensity of their local interstellar spectrum. The force-field approximation is a popular way of dealing with solar modulation, especially for studies focused on galactic transport of cosmic rays. The validity of this approach to reproduce the modulated GCR fluxes at Earth is tested using monthly proton fluxes measured by PAMELA between July 2006 and January 2014 and monthly proton and helium fluxes measured by AMS-02 between May 2011 and May 2017. We show that the precision of the new AMS-02 data requires a rigidity-dependent modification of the force-field approximation.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2019

Time dependence of the p/He ratio in cosmic rays according to the force-field approximation

We study the predictions for the p/He ratio in galactic cosmic rays according to the force-field approximation. The dependence of the time variation of p/He on the local interstellar spectrum (LIS) shape and on the mass-to-charge ratio, A/Z, is analyzed in detail. We find that, depending on the rigidity range and the sign of the spectral index of the p/He LIS ratio, the p/He time variation can be correlated or anti-correlated with the phase of the solar cycle. We show that the A/Z dependence is the most probable cause for the p/He decrease recently observed by AMS-02 after 2015 between 2 and 3 GV.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2019

Validation of the neutron monitor yield function using data from AMS-02 experiment, 2011--2017

The newly published spectra of protons and helium over time directly measured in space by the AMS-02 experiment for the period 2011--2017 provide a unique opportunity to calibrate ground-based neutron monitors (NMs). Here, calibration of several stable sealevel NMs (Inuvik, Apatity, Oulu, Newark, Moscow, Hermanus, Athens) was performed using these spectra. Four modern NM yield functions were verified: Mi13 (Mishev et al., 2013), Ma16 (Mangeard et al., 2016), CM12 (Caballero-Lopez & Moraal, 2012) and CD00 (Clem & Dorman, 2000), on the basis of the cosmic-ray spectra measured by AMS-02. The Mi13 yield function was found to realistically represent the NM response to galactic cosmic rays. CM12 yield function leads to a small skew in the solar cycle dependence of the scaling factor. In contrast, Ma16 and CD00 yield functions tend to overestimate the NM sensitivity to low-rigidity (<10 GV) cosmic rays. This effect may be important for an analysis of ground level enhancements, leading to a potential underestimate of fluxes of solar energetic particles as based on NM data. The Mi13 yield function is recommended for quantitative analyses of NM data, especially for ground-level enhancements. The validity the force-field approximation was studied, and it was found that it fits well the directly measured proton spectra, within a few % for periods of low to moderate activity and up to ~10% for active periods. The results of this work strengthen and validate the method of the cosmic-ray variability analysis based on the NM data and yield-function formalism, and improves its accuracy.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2018

Numerical modeling of galactic cosmic ray proton and helium observed by AMS-02 during the solar maximum of Solar Cycle 24

Galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) are affected by solar modulation while they propagate through the heliosphere. The study of the time variation of GCR spectra observed at Earth can shed light on the underlying physical processes, specifically diffusion and particle drifts. Recently, the AMS-02 experiment measured with very high accuracy the time variation of the cosmic ray proton and helium flux between May 2011 and May 2017 in the rigidity range from 1 to 60 GV. In this work, a comprehensive three-dimensional (3D) steady-state numerical model is used to solve Parker's transport equation and is used to reproduce the monthly proton fluxes observed by AMS-02. We find that the rigidity slope of the perpendicular mean free path above 4 GV remains constant, while below 4 GV it increases during solar maximum. Assuming the same mean free paths for helium and protons, the models are able to reproduce the time behavior of the p/He ratio observed by AMS-02. The dependence of the diffusion tensor on the particle mass-to-charge ratio, A/Z, is found to be the main cause of the time dependence of p/He below 3 GV.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2015

Solar Modulation of the Proton Local Interstellar Spectrum with AMS-02, Voyager 1 and PAMELA

In recent years, the increasing precision of direct cosmic rays measurements opened the door to indirect searches of dark matter with high-sensitivity and to more accurate predictions for radiation doses received by astronauts and electronics in space. The key ingredients in the study of these phenomena are the knowledge of the local interstellar spectrum (LIS) of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) and the understanding of how the solar modulation affects the LIS inside the heliosphere. Voyager 1, AMS-02 and PAMELA measurements of proton fluxes provide invaluable information, allowing us to shed light on the shape of the LIS and the details of the solar modulation during solar cycles 23 and 24. A new parametrization of the proton LIS is presented, based on the latest data from Voyager 1 and AMS-02. Using the framework of the force-field approximation, the solar modulation parameter is extracted from the time-dependent proton fluxes measured by PAMELA. A modified version of the force-field approximation with an energy-dependent modulation parameter is introduced, yielding better results on proton data than the force-field approximation. The results are compared with the modulation parameter inferred by neutron monitors.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2014

The cosmic ray electron and positron spectra measured by AMS-02

The AMS-02 detector is operating on the International Space Station since May 2011. More than 30 billion events have been collected by the instrument in the first two years of data taking. A precision measurement of the positron fraction and of the positron flux in primary cosmic rays up to 350 GeV, of the electron flux up to 500 GeV and of the combined electron plus positron flux up to 700 GeV are presented. The separate and combined electron and positron fluxes are preliminary and represent work in progress. Systematic uncertainties must still be investigated further.

physics.ins-det↗