A Theoretical Framework for Environmental Similarity and Vessel Mobility as Coupled Predictors of Marine Invasive Species Pathways
Marine invasive species spread through global shipping and generate substantial ecological and economic impacts. Traditional risk assessments require detailed records of ballast water and traffic patterns, which are often incomplete, limiting global coverage. This work advances a theoretical framework that quantifies invasion risk by combining environmental similarity across ports with observed and forecasted maritime mobility. Climate-based feature representations characterize each port's marine conditions, while mobility networks derived from Automatic Identification System data capture vessel flows and potential transfer pathways. Clustering and metric learning reveal climate analogues and enable the estimation of species survival likelihood along shipping routes. A temporal link prediction model captures how traffic patterns may change under shifting environmental conditions. The resulting fusion of environmental similarity and predicted mobility provides exposure estimates at the port and voyage levels, supporting targeted monitoring, routing adjustments, and management interventions.