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Claudio Fronterre

Publications and source records attributed to Claudio Fronterre.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

Comment on: "The Two Cultures of Prevalence Mapping: Small Area Estimation and Model-Based Geostatistics"

Small Area Estimation (SAE) and Model-Based Geostatistics (MBG) provide complementary approaches to prevalence mapping, with their relative advantages depending on the inferential goals and characteristics of the available data. We argue that a fuller comparison should consider model interpretability, the role of epidemiologically motivated covariates, inferential objectives beyond area-level prediction, integration of data from different spatial partitions and surveys, and task-specific model validation. In particular, we question whether survey design variables should routinely be included in MBG models when their effects may instead be mediated by measurable environmental and socio-economic risk factors. We further argue that simulation-based validation, tailored to the operational objectives of prevalence mapping, can provide a more informative assessment of model performance than conventional cross-validation alone.

stat.ME

A decay-adjusted spatio-temporal model to account for the impact of mass drug administration on neglected tropical disease prevalence

Prevalence surveys are routinely used to monitor the effectiveness of mass drug administration (MDA) programmes for controlling neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). We propose a decay-adjusted spatio-temporal (DAST) model that explicitly accounts for the time-varying impact of MDA on NTD prevalence, providing a flexible and interpretable framework for estimating intervention effects from sparse survey data. Using case studies on soil-transmitted helminths and lymphatic filariasis, we show that DAST offers a practical alternative to standard geostatistical models when the objective includes quantifying MDA impact and supporting short-term programmatic forecasting. We also discuss extensions and identifiability challenges, advocating for data-driven parsimony over complexity in settings where the available data are too sparse to support the estimation of highly parameterised models.

stat.AP

Modernising the Design and Analysis of Prevalence Surveys for Neglected Tropical Diseases

Current WHO guidelines set prevalence thresholds below which a Neglected Tropical Disease can be considered to have been eliminated as a public health problem, and specify how surveys to assess whether elimination has been achieved should be designed and analysed, based on classical survey sampling methods. In this paper we describe an alternative approach based on geospatial statistical modelling. We first show the gains in efficiency that can be obtained by exploiting any spatial correlation in the underlying prevalence surface. We then suggest that the current guidelines implicit use of a significance testing argument is not appropriate; instead, we argue for a predictive inferential framework, leading to design criteria based on controlling the rates at which areas whose true prevalence lies above and below the elimination threshold are incorrectly classified. We describe how this approach naturally accommodates context-specific information in the form of georeferenced covariates that have been shown to be predictive of disease prevalence. Finally, we give a progress report of an ongoing collaboration with the Guyana Ministry of Health Neglected Tropical Disease program on the design of an IDA (Ivermectin, Diethylcarbamazine and Albendazole) Impact Survey (IIS) of lymphatic filariasis to be conducted in Guyana in early 2023

stat.AP