arXiv subjects

Claudio Lissona

Publications and source records attributed to Claudio Lissona.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Large datasets for the Euro Area and its member countries and the dynamic effects of the common monetary policy

We introduce EA-MD-QD, a new publicly available dataset comprising 1136 macroeconomic time series for the euro area (EA) and its ten largest member countries observed at monthly or quarterly frequency. Since January 2024, EA-MD-QD has been updated monthly and continuously revised, providing a valuable resource for policy analysis in the EA. Using EA-MD-QD, we study country-specific impulse responses to an EA-wide monetary policy shock. Results reveal moderate yet significant cross-country heterogeneity, with differences between so-called core countries, such as France and Germany, and peripheral countries, such as Italy and Spain, in their price and interest rate responses, together with meaningful differences in real activity, while stock price responses are relatively homogeneous. Evidence points to homeownership and saving behavior as potential drivers of the observed cross-country differences.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2025

Measuring the Euro Area Output Gap

We measure the Euro Area (EA) output gap and potential output using a non-stationary dynamic factor model estimated on a large dataset of macroeconomic and financial variables. Our results indicate that, between 2012 and 2024, the EA economy was consistently tighter than suggested by institutional estimates, implying that its weak growth reflects a potential output problem rather than a business-cycle one. Moreover, we find that the decline in trend inflation-rather than economic slack-kept core inflation below 2% before the pandemic, while demand forces explain at least 30% of the post-pandemic rise in core inflation.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2025

Heterogeneous economic growth vulnerability across Euro Area countries under stressed scenarios

We analyse economic growth vulnerability of the four largest Euro Area (EA) countries under stressed macroeconomic and financial conditions. Vulnerability, measured as a lower quantile of the growth distribution conditional on EA-wide and country-specific underlying factors, is found to be higher in Germany, which is more exposed to EA-wide economic conditions, and in Spain, which has large country-specific sectoral dynamics. We show that, under stress, financial factors amplify adverse macroeconomic conditions. Furthermore, even severe sectoral (financial or macro) shocks, whether common or country-specific, fail to fully explain the vulnerability observed under overall stress. Our results underscore the importance of monitoring both local and EA-wide macro-financial conditions to design effective policies for mitigating growth vulnerability.

econ.EM↗