arXiv subjects

Clemens Possnig

Publications and source records attributed to Clemens Possnig.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

The Bounds of Algorithmic Collusion; $Q$-learning, Gradient Learning, and the Folk Theorem

We explore the behaviour emerging from learning agents repeatedly interacting strategically for a wide range of learning dynamics, including $Q$-learning, projected gradient, replicator and log-barrier dynamics. Going beyond the better understood classes of potential games and zero-sum games, we consider the setting of a general repeated game with finite recall under different forms of monitoring. We obtain a Folk Theorem-style result and characterise the set of payoff vectors that can be obtained by these dynamics, discovering a wide range of possibilities for the emergence of algorithmic collusion. Achieving this requires a novel technical approach, which, to the best of our knowledge, yields the first convergence result for multi-agent $Q$-learning algorithms in repeated games.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2026

The Algorithmic Advantage: How Reinforcement Learning Generates Rich Communication

We analyze strategic communication when advice is generated by a reinforcement-learning algorithm rather than by a fully rational sender. Building on the cheap-talk framework of Crawford and Sobel (1982), an advisor adapts its messages based on payoff feedback, while a decision maker best-responds. We provide a theoretical analysis of the long-run communication outcomes induced by such reward-driven adaptation. With aligned preferences, we establish that learning robustly leads to informative communication even from uninformative initial policies. With misaligned preferences, no stable outcome exists; instead, learning generates cycles that sustain highly informative communication and payoffs exceeding those of any static equilibrium.

econ.TH↗

arXiv2022

Estimating Dynamic Spillover Effects along Multiple Networks in a Linear Panel Model

Spillover of economic outcomes often arises over multiple networks, and distinguishing their separate roles is important in empirical research. For example, the direction of spillover between two groups (such as banks and industrial sectors linked in a bipartite graph) has important economic implications, and a researcher may want to learn which direction is supported in the data. For this, we need to have an empirical methodology that allows for both directions of spillover simultaneously. In this paper, we develop a dynamic linear panel model and asymptotic inference with large $n$ and small $T$, where both directions of spillover are accommodated through multiple networks. Using the methodology developed here, we perform an empirical study of spillovers between bank weakness and zombie-firm congestion in industrial sectors, using firm-bank matched data from Spain between 2005 and 2012. Overall, we find that there is positive spillover in both directions between banks and sectors.

econ.EM↗