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Clifford Spiegelman

Publications and source records attributed to Clifford Spiegelman.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

Beyond Trees: Classification with Sparse Pairwise Dependencies

Several classification methods assume that the underlying distributions follow tree-structured graphical models. Indeed, trees capture statistical dependencies between pairs of variables, which may be crucial to attain low classification errors. The resulting classifier is linear in the log-transformed univariate and bivariate densities that correspond to the tree edges. In practice, however, observed data may not be well approximated by trees. Yet, motivated by the importance of pairwise dependencies for accurate classification, here we propose to approximate the optimal decision boundary by a sparse linear combination of the univariate and bivariate log-transformed densities. Our proposed approach is semi-parametric in nature: we non-parametrically estimate the univariate and bivariate densities, remove pairs of variables that are nearly independent using the Hilbert-Schmidt independence criteria, and finally construct a linear SVM on the retained log-transformed densities. We demonstrate using both synthetic and real data that our resulting classifier, denoted SLB (Sparse Log-Bivariate density), is competitive with popular classification methods.

stat.ML↗

On the exact Berk-Jones statistics and their p-value calculation

Continuous goodness-of-fit testing is a classical problem in statistics. Despite having low power for detecting deviations at the tail of a distribution, the most popular test is based on the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic. While similar variance-weighted statistics, such as Anderson-Darling and the Higher Criticism statistic give more weight to tail deviations, as shown in various works, they still mishandle the extreme tails. As a viable alternative, in this paper we study some of the statistical properties of the exact $M_n$ statistics of Berk and Jones. We derive the asymptotic null distributions of $M_n, M_n^+, M_n^-$, and further prove their consistency as well as asymptotic optimality for a wide range of rare-weak mixture models. Additionally, we present a new computationally efficient method to calculate $p$-values for any supremum-based one-sided statistic, including the one-sided $M_n^+,M_n^-$ and $R_n^+,R_n^-$ statistics of Berk and Jones and the Higher Criticism statistic. We illustrate our theoretical analysis with several finite-sample simulations.

stat.ME↗

Response to the Letter to the Editor

This paper has attracted interest around the world from the media (both TV and newspapers). In addition, we have received letters, emails and telephone calls. One of our favorites was a voicemail message asking us to return a call to Australia at which point we would learn who really killed JFK. We welcome the opportunity to respond to the letter to the editor from Mr. Fiorentino. Mr. Fiorentino claims that our ``statement relating to the likelihood of a second assassin based on the premise of three or more separate bullets is demonstrably false.'' In response we would like to simply quote from page 327 of Gerald Posner's book Case Closed, one of the most well known works supporting the single assassin theory: ``If Connally was hit by another bullet, it had to be fired from a second shooter, since the Warren Commission's own reconstructions showed that Oswald could not have operated the bolt and refired in 1.4 seconds.'' Mr. Fiorentino also claims that the ``second fatal flaw is the use of a rather uncomplicated formula based on Bayes Theorem.'' Let $E$ denote the evidence and $T$ denote the theory that there were just two bullets (and hence a single shooter). We used Bayes Theorem to hypothetically calculate $P(T|E)$ from $P(E|T)$ and the prior probability $P(T)$. In order to make $P(T|E)$ ten times more likely than $P(\bar{T}|E)$, the ratio of the prior probabilities [i.e., $P(T) / P(\bar{T})$] would have to be greater than 15. Thus, we again conclude that this casts serious doubt on Dr. Guinn's conclusion that the evidence supported just two bullets. Sadly, this is far from the first time that probability has been misunderstood and/or misapplied in a case of public interest. A notable British example is the Clark case. See Nobles and Schiff (2005) for details. Finally, we welcome and, in fact, encourage members of the scientific community to provide alternative analyses of the data.

stat.AP↗