arXiv subjects

Clint Dawson

Publications and source records attributed to Clint Dawson.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Investigating Forecast Proficiency of Hurricane-Induced Compound Flooding With a Discontinuous Galerkin Shallow Water Equation Solver

Recent severe storms on the U.S. Gulf coast have demonstrated the challenges presented by compound flooding, such as the interactions between rainfall runoff and storm surge. Historically, many studies have neglected these nonlinear interactions, but we propose to use a discontinuous Galerkin shallow water equation solver, which allows for incorporation of rainfall inputs directly onto the finite element mesh. In this work, we analyze the use of parametric rainfall for forecasting scenarios, using Hurricane Beryl (2024) as a case study. Beryl led to extensive flooding due to rainfall and storm surge along the Gulf. We use a collection of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's short-term advisories along with the best track data to demonstrate the efficacy of the parametric rainfall model for forecasting. Results show that the parametric rainfall input allowed for much more accurate inundation. Areas with heavy rainfall and low surge were affected the most, with many areas peaking over 50 cm above the baseline surge model. Almost none of the available high water marks from Beryl were captured by the standard models, but the compound flooding models capture many of them, the majority of which show relative errors under 10 percent. Results from the advisory forecast simulations were shown to be much closer to the best track hindcast simulation when rainfall forcing was used, even while early forecasts predicted the storm's trajectory much less accurately. The advisory simulations improved even further as Beryl neared the Texas coast, with sampled peak elevations most closely approximating the best track at Advisory 38, a few hours before landfall.

cs.CE↗

arXiv2026

A Data-Consistent Approach to Ensemble Filtering

Ensemble filtering of chaotic, partially observed systems is often performed with ensembles far smaller than the state dimension resulting in empirical covariances that are low rank. Subsequently, stochastic observation perturbations can degrade both accuracy and probabilistic calibration. We develop a data-consistent perspective on ensemble filtering and introduce the Quantity-of-Interest Principal Component Analysis Ensemble Data Consistent Filter (QPCA-EnDCF), which is a deterministic method that replaces perturbed observations with a spectrally regularized update in observation space. The method whitens forecast--observation residuals, computes an empirical eigendecomposition of the residual covariance, and restricts the correction to a rank-$\kappa$ subspace before mapping the increment back to state space through an empirical gain. We establish a theoretical framework that separates population and finite-ensemble objects and yields a bias--variance decomposition for the analysis mean. The analysis shows that stochastic EnKF variants incur an irreducible $\mathcal{O}(1/N)$ variance contribution from observation perturbations, whereas QPCA-EnDCF replaces this term with projector-estimation variability that is also $\mathcal{O}(1/N)$ but depends on the retained rank and the cutoff gap through eigenspace stability. Numerical experiments on the Lorenz--96 system in strongly undersampled regimes demonstrate that QPCA-EnDCF substantially improves spread--skill behavior, temporal tracking between spread and error, and rank-histogram reliability relative to sequential and four-dimensional stochastic EnKF. Under the baseline configuration, these calibration gains are accompanied by lower RMSE.

math.ST↗

arXiv2026

HyCOP: Hybrid Composition Operators for Interpretable Learning of PDEs

We introduce HyCOP, a modular framework that learns parametric PDE solution operators by composing simple modules (advection, diffusion, learned closures, boundary handling) in a query-conditioned way. Rather than learning a monolithic map, HyCOP learns a policy over short programs - which module to apply and for how long - conditioned on regime features and state statistics. Modules may be numerical sub-solvers or learned components, enabling hybrid surrogates evaluated at arbitrary query times without autoregressive rollout. Across diverse PDE benchmarks, HyCOP produces interpretable programs, delivers order-of-magnitude OOD improvements over monolithic neural operators, and supports modular transfer through dictionary updates (e.g., boundary swaps, residual enrichment). Our theory characterizes expressivity and gives an error decomposition that separates composition error from module error and doubles as a process-level diagnostic.

cs.CE↗

arXiv2026

Towards Multi-Agent Autonomous Reasoning in Hydrodynamics

Single-agent systems (SAS) have become the default pattern for LLM-driven scientific workflows, but routing planning, tool use, and synthesis through a single context window comes with a well-known cost: as tool specifications and observational traces accumulate, the effective context available for each decision shrinks, and end-to-end reliability suffers. We present a multi-agent system (MAS) prototype for hydrodynamics in which specialized agents are coordinated through a Layer Execution Graph (LEG). A planner agent constructs query-specific execution topologies from natural-language routing heuristics that capture domain knowledge without hard-coding it as rigid control logic; specialist agents operate under strict tool allowlists and occupy complementary data-class roles. Between layers, consolidator agents fuse parallel outputs into concise briefs, and a reporter agent synthesizes the final response, while the runtime logs provenance for every tool invocation to support auditability. All benchmarks, ablations, and stress tests use Claude Sonnet~4.6 as the backbone model for both specialist and general-purpose agents. Evaluated on 37 queries spanning six complexity categories, the prototype achieves 93.6% factual precision with a 100% pass rate. Accuracy remains above 90% across runs from single-threaded to five independent parallel tracks, and under simulated loss of individual data sources the system degrades gracefully, still returning substantive partial answers. Together, these results suggest that planner-guided, graph-structured multi-agent orchestration can meaningfully alleviate the context-saturation bottlenecks that constrain monolithic single-agent architectures.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

StormNet: Improving storm surge predictions with a GNN-based spatio-temporal offset forecasting model

Storm surge forecasting remains a critical challenge in mitigating the impacts of tropical cyclones on coastal regions, particularly given recent trends of rapid intensification and increasing nearshore storm activity. Traditional high fidelity numerical models such as ADCIRC, while robust, are often hindered by inevitable uncertainties arising from various sources. To address these challenges, this study introduces StormNet, a spatio-temporal graph neural network (GNN) designed for bias correction of storm surge forecasts. StormNet integrates graph convolutional (GCN) and graph attention (GAT) mechanisms with long short-term memory (LSTM) components to capture complex spatial and temporal dependencies among water-level gauge stations. The model was trained using historical hurricane data from the U.S. Gulf Coast and evaluated on Hurricane Idalia (2023). Results demonstrate that StormNet can effectively reduce the root mean square error (RMSE) in water-level predictions by more than 70\% for 48-hour forecasts and above 50\% for 72-hour forecasts, as well as outperform a sequential LSTM baseline, particularly for longer prediction horizons. The model also exhibits low training time, enhancing its applicability in real-time operational forecasting systems. Overall, StormNet provides a computationally efficient and physically meaningful framework for improving storm surge prediction accuracy and reliability during extreme weather events.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Operator Learning for Predicting Bulk Wave Parameters of Spectral Wave Models

The impact of wave-induced forcing on the mean water level and nearshore currents is typically modeled through excess momentum fluxes, also known as radiation stresses, and their spatial gradients. Accurate storm surge prediction requires coupled circulation and wave models, but the high computational cost of numerical wave models limits their temporal resolution. In this work, we explore a proof-of-concept application of Deep Operator Networks (DeepONets) as a surrogate for the Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) numerical wave model. Unlike grid-dependent surrogate models, DeepONets learn the underlying continuous operator, and thus, can provide highly efficient prediction while enabling discretization-invariant inference. The proposed surrogate model is evaluated using two distinct 1-D and 2-D steady-state numerical examples with variable boundary wave conditions and wind fields. When applied to a realistic numerical example of steady-state wave simulation in Duck, NC, the DeepONet surrogate improves computational efficiency by four orders of magnitude. Furthermore, the model demonstrates consistently high accuracy in predicting the significant wave height and the x- and y- components of the radiation stress gradient, by achieving relative L_2 errors bounded by 1.91%, 10.98%, and 6.88%, respectively, across all unseen test scenarios.

physics.comp-ph↗

arXiv2026

Learning the Exact Flux: Neural Riemann Solvers with Hard Constraints

Godunov-type methods, which obtain numerical fluxes through local Riemann problems at cell interfaces, are among the most fundamental and widely used numerical methods in computational fluid dynamics. Exact Riemann solvers faithfully solve the underlying equations, but can be computationally expensive due to the iterative root-finding procedures they often require. Consequently, most practical computations rely on classical approximate Riemann solvers, such as Rusanov and Roe, which trade accuracy for computational speed. Neural networks have recently shown promise as an alternative for approximating exact Riemann solvers, but most existing approaches are data-driven or impose weak constraints. This may result in problems with maintaining balanced states, symmetry breaking, and conservation errors when integrated into a Godunov-type scheme. To address these issues, we propose a hard-constrained neural Riemann solver (HCNRS) and enforce five constraints: positivity, consistency, mirror symmetry, Galilean invariance, and scaling invariance. Numerical experiments are carried out for the shallow water and ideal-gas Euler equations on standard benchmark problems. In the absence of hard constraints, violations of the well-balanced property, mass conservation, and symmetry are observed. Notably, in the Euler implosion problem, the exact Riemann solver with MUSCL-Hancock captures the jet structure well, whereas the Rusanov flux is too diffusive and smears it out. HCNRS accurately reproduces the solution obtained by the exact Riemann solver. In contrast, an unconstrained neural formulation lacks mirror symmetry, which makes the solution depend on the choice of flux normal direction. As a result, the jet is either shifted or lost, along with diagonal symmetry.

physics.comp-ph↗

arXiv2026

HURRI-GAN: A Novel Approach for Hurricane Bias-Correction Beyond Gauge Stations using Generative Adversarial Networks

The coastal regions of the eastern and southern United States are impacted by severe storm events, leading to significant loss of life and properties. Accurately forecasting storm surge and wind impacts from hurricanes is essential for mitigating some of the impacts, e.g., timely preparation of evacuations and other countermeasures. Physical simulation models like the ADCIRC hydrodynamics model, which run on high-performance computing resources, are sophisticated tools that produce increasingly accurate forecasts as the resolution of the computational meshes improves. However, a major drawback of these models is the significant time required to generate results at very high resolutions, which may not meet the near real-time demands of emergency responders. The presented work introduces HURRI-GAN, a novel AI-driven approach that augments the results produced by physical simulation models using time series generative adversarial networks (TimeGAN) to compensate for systemic errors of the physical model, thus reducing the necessary mesh size and runtime without loss in forecasting accuracy. We present first results in extrapolating model bias corrections for the spatial regions beyond the positions of the water level gauge stations. The presented results show that our methodology can accurately generate bias corrections at target locations spatially beyond gauge stations locations. The model's performance, as indicated by low root mean squared error (RMSE) values, highlights its capability to generate accurate extrapolated data. Applying the corrections generated by HURRI-GAN on the ADCIRC modeled water levels resulted in improving the overall prediction on the majority of the testing gauge stations.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Variational Data-Consistent Assimilation

This work introduces a new class of four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4D-Var) methods grounded in data-consistent inversion (DCI) theory. The methods extend classical 4D-Var by incorporating a predictability-aware regularization term. The first method formulated is referred to as Data-Consistent 4D-Var (DC-4DVar), which is then enhanced using a Weighted Mean Error (WME) quantity-of-interest map to construct the DC-WME 4D-Var method. While the DC and DC-WME cost functions both involve a predictability-aware regularization term, the DC-WME function includes a modification to the model-data misfit, thereby improving estimation accuracy, robustness, and theoretical consistency in nonlinear and partially observed dynamical systems. Proofs are provided that establish the existence and uniqueness of the minimizer and analyze how a predictability assumption that is common within the DCI framework helps to promote solution stability. Numerical experiments are presented on benchmark dynamical systems (Lorenz-63 and Lorenz-96) as well as for the shallow water equations (SWE). In the benchmark dynamical systems, the DC-WME 4D-Var formulation is shown to consistently outperform standard 4D-Var in reducing both error and bias while maintaining robustness under high observation noise and short assimilation windows. Despite introducing modest computational overhead, DC-WME 4D-Var delivers improvements in estimation performance and forecast skill, demonstrating its potential practicality and scalability for high-dimensional data assimilation problems.

math.NA↗

arXiv2025

GPU-acceleration of the Discontinuous Galerkin Shallow Water Equations Model (DG-SWEM) with OpenACC

This paper presents a porting of {DG-SWEM}, a first-order discontinuous Galerkin solver for storm surge based on the Advanced Circulation Model (ADCIRC), to NVIDIA GPUs. Time-explicit discontinuous Galerkin methods contain a large number of degrees of freedom but have been shown to exhibit a large amount of data parallelism due to the loose coupling between elements, and thus are naturally mapped to the GPU architecture. A previous framework in porting DG-SWEM to GPUs required converting subroutines from Fortran to C++ to be used with CUDA C++. By using OpenACC and Unified Memory, we simplify the porting process and maintain a single codebase for both CPU and GPU versions. We test the code using a large Hurricane Harvey scenario on NVIDIA's Grace Hopper chip, and compare the GPU code's performance on multiple H200 nodes to the CPU version on the same amount of Grace CPU nodes.

physics.comp-ph↗

arXiv2025

Coupled Continuous-Discontinuous Galerkin Finite Element Solver for Compound Flood Simulations

Several recent tropical cyclones, e.g., Hurricane Harvey (2017), have lead to significant rainfall and resulting runoff. When the runoff interacts with storm surge, the resulting floods can be greatly amplified and lead to effects that cannot be correctly modeled by simple superposition of its distinctive sources. In an effort to develop accurate numerical simulations of runoff, surge, and compounding floods, we develop a locally conservative coupled DG-CG discretization of the shallow water equations and integrate it into the Advanced Circulation Model (ADCIRC). We also modify the continuity equation to include spatially and temporally variable rainfall into the model using parametric rainfall models. We demonstrate the capabilities of the scheme though a sequence of physically relevant numerical tests, including small scale test cases based on laboratory measurements and large scale experiments with Hurricane Harvey in the Gulf of Mexico. The results highlight the conservation properties and robustness of the developed method and show the potential of compound flood modeling using our approach.

physics.comp-ph↗

arXiv2025

Storm Surge in Color: RGB-Encoded Physics-Aware Deep Learning for Storm Surge Forecasting

Storm surge forecasting plays a crucial role in coastal disaster preparedness, yet existing machine learning approaches often suffer from limited spatial resolution, reliance on coastal station data, and poor generalization. Moreover, many prior models operate directly on unstructured spatial data, making them incompatible with modern deep learning architectures. In this work, we introduce a novel approach that projects unstructured water elevation fields onto structured Red Green Blue (RGB)-encoded image representations, enabling the application of Convolutional Long Short Term Memory (ConvLSTM) networks for end-to-end spatiotemporal surge forecasting. Our model further integrates ground-truth wind fields as dynamic conditioning signals and topo-bathymetry as a static input, capturing physically meaningful drivers of surge evolution. Evaluated on a large-scale dataset of synthetic storms in the Gulf of Mexico, our method demonstrates robust 48-hour forecasting performance across multiple regions along the Texas coast and exhibits strong spatial extensibility to other coastal areas. By combining structured representation, physically grounded forcings, and scalable deep learning, this study advances the frontier of storm surge forecasting in usability, adaptability, and interpretability.

cs.CE↗

arXiv2025

UT-GraphCast Hindcast Dataset: A Global AI Forecast Archive from UT Austin for Weather and Climate Applications

The UT GraphCast Hindcast Dataset from 1979 to 2024 is a comprehensive global weather forecast archive generated using the Google DeepMind GraphCast Operational model. Developed by researchers at The University of Texas at Austin under the WCRP umbrella, this dataset provides daily 15 day deterministic forecasts at 00UTC on an approximately 25 km global grid for a 45 year period. GraphCast is a physics informed graph neural network that was trained on ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis. It predicts more than a dozen key atmospheric and surface variables on 37 vertical levels, delivering a full medium range forecast in under one minute on modern hardware.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2025

Potential Effects of Loading Terminal Locations on Surface Trajectories of Oil Spill Transport

We present an investigation comparing the potential impacts of offshore and onshore crude oil loading sites on surface trajectories of spilled oil particles in the regions near the Port of Corpus Christi, Texas. Oil transport is established in a two step procedure. First, the circulation and flow characteristics of seawater throughout the coastal ocean are established for various flow conditions, including current and proposed channel depth, seasonality changes, and extreme weather events. Then, spilled oil is modeled as distinct particles released at either the proposed onshore or offshore loading locations. The particle trajectories are tracked and used to assess the spread into diverse coastal ecosystems with extensive plant, sea, and land life. The models indicate that the extent of spread of these simulated oil spills to ecologically significant regions is greater when initiated at the onshore loading site than at the offshore site.

physics.comp-ph↗

arXiv2025

A Neural Operator Emulator for Coastal and Riverine Shallow Water Dynamics

Coastal regions and river floodplains are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of extreme weather events. Accurate real-time forecasting of hydrodynamic processes in these areas is essential for infrastructure planning and climate adaptation. Yet high-fidelity numerical models are often too computationally expensive for real-time use, and lower-cost approaches, such as traditional model order reduction algorithms or conventional neural networks, typically struggle to generalize to out-of-distribution conditions. In this study, we present the Multiple-Input Temporal Operator Network (MITONet), a novel autoregressive neural emulator that employs latent-space operator learning to efficiently approximate high-dimensional numerical solvers for complex, nonlinear problems that are governed by time-dependent, parameterized partial differential equations. We showcase MITONet's predictive capabilities by forecasting regional tide-driven dynamics in the Shinnecock Inlet in New York and riverine flow in a section of the Red River in Louisiana, both described by the two-dimensional shallow-water equations (2D SWE), while incorporating initial conditions, time-varying boundary conditions, and domain parameters such as the bottom friction coefficient. Despite the distinct flow regimes, the complex geometries and meshes, and the wide range of bottom friction coefficients studied, MITONet displays consistently high predictive skill, with anomaly correlation coefficients above 0.9, a maximum normalized root mean square error of 0.011, and computational speedups between 100x-1,250x, even for 175 days of autoregressive rollout forecast from random initial conditions and with unseen parameter values.

cs.CE↗

arXiv2025

Topological derivative approach for deep neural network architecture adaptation

This work presents a novel algorithm for progressively adapting neural network architecture along the depth. In particular, we attempt to address the following questions in a mathematically principled way: i) Where to add a new capacity (layer) during the training process? ii) How to initialize the new capacity? At the heart of our approach are two key ingredients: i) the introduction of a ``shape functional" to be minimized, which depends on neural network topology, and ii) the introduction of a topological derivative of the shape functional with respect to the neural network topology. Using an optimal control viewpoint, we show that the network topological derivative exists under certain conditions, and its closed-form expression is derived. In particular, we explore, for the first time, the connection between the topological derivative from a topology optimization framework with the Hamiltonian from optimal control theory. Further, we show that the optimality condition for the shape functional leads to an eigenvalue problem for deep neural architecture adaptation. Our approach thus determines the most sensitive location along the depth where a new layer needs to be inserted during the training phase and the associated parametric initialization for the newly added layer. We also demonstrate that our layer insertion strategy can be derived from an optimal transport viewpoint as a solution to maximizing a topological derivative in $p$-Wasserstein space, where $p>= 1$. Numerical investigations with fully connected network, convolutional neural network, and vision transformer on various regression and classification problems demonstrate that our proposed approach can outperform an ad-hoc baseline network and other architecture adaptation strategies. Further, we also demonstrate other applications of topological derivative in fields such as transfer learning.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Enhancing Near Real Time AI-NWP Hurricane Forecasts: Improving Explainability and Performance Through Physics-Based Models and Land Surface Feedback

Hurricane track forecasting remains a significant challenge due to the complex interactions between the atmosphere, land, and ocean. Although AI-based numerical weather prediction models, such as Google Graphcast operation, have significantly improved hurricane track forecasts, they currently function as atmosphere-only models, omitting critical land and ocean interactions. To investigate the impact of land feedback, we conducted independent simulations using the physics-based Hurricane WRF experimental model to assess how soil moisture variations influence storm trajectories. Our results show that land surface conditions significantly alter storm paths, demonstrating the importance of land-atmosphere coupling in hurricane prediction. Although recent advances have introduced AI-based atmosphere-ocean coupled models, a fully functional AI-driven atmosphere-land-ocean model does not yet exist. Our findings suggest that AI-NWP models could be further improved by incorporating land surface interactions, improving both forecast accuracy and explainability. Developing a fully coupled AI-based weather model would mark a critical step toward more reliable and physically consistent hurricane forecasting, with direct applications for disaster preparedness and risk mitigation.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2024

TAEN: A Model-Constrained Tikhonov Autoencoder Network for Forward and Inverse Problems

Efficient real-time solvers for forward and inverse problems are essential in engineering and science applications. Machine learning surrogate models have emerged as promising alternatives to traditional methods, offering substantially reduced computational time. Nevertheless, these models typically demand extensive training datasets to achieve robust generalization across diverse scenarios. While physics-based approaches can partially mitigate this data dependency and ensure physics-interpretable solutions, addressing scarce data regimes remains a challenge. Both purely data-driven and physics-based machine learning approaches demonstrate severe overfitting issues when trained with insufficient data. We propose a novel Tikhonov autoencoder model-constrained framework, called TAE, capable of learning both forward and inverse surrogate models using a single arbitrary observation sample. We develop comprehensive theoretical foundations including forward and inverse inference error bounds for the proposed approach for linear cases. For comparative analysis, we derive equivalent formulations for pure data-driven and model-constrained approach counterparts. At the heart of our approach is a data randomization strategy, which functions as a generative mechanism for exploring the training data space, enabling effective training of both forward and inverse surrogate models from a single observation, while regularizing the learning process. We validate our approach through extensive numerical experiments on two challenging inverse problems: 2D heat conductivity inversion and initial condition reconstruction for time-dependent 2D Navier-Stokes equations. Results demonstrate that TAE achieves accuracy comparable to traditional Tikhonov solvers and numerical forward solvers for both inverse and forward problems, respectively, while delivering orders of magnitude computational speedups.

cs.LG↗