arXiv subjects

Colby M. Ostberg

Publications and source records attributed to Colby M. Ostberg.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

The Expected Yield of Venus Zone Terrestrial Planets from PLATO

The characterization of terrestrial exoplanets and the conditions that lead to divergent climate outcomes is a primary goal of exoplanetary science. The Venus Zone (VZ) provides a framework for identifying planets that may have experienced runaway greenhouse processes similar to Venus, and the statistical properties of such planets bear directly on models of planetary habitability. Here we present a quantitative estimate of the expected yield of VZ terrestrial planets from ESA's PLATO (PLAnetary Transits and Oscillations of stars) mission. We combine the predicted PLATO planet yield for Earth-size ($0.8$--$1.25~R_\oplus$) and super-Earth ($1.25$--$2.0~R_\oplus$) planets with empirical occurrence rates for VZ terrestrial planets derived from Kepler data. Under conservative assumptions, we estimate that PLATO will detect $\sim$170--280 VZ terrestrial planets ($0.8$--$2.0~R_\oplus$), including $\sim$40--80 Earth-size ($0.8$--$1.25~R_\oplus$) planets, during a nominal 4-year mission. For the bright P1 sample ($V \leq 11$), we estimate $\sim$50--85 terrestrial and $\sim$13--22 Earth-size VZ detections, enabling radial velocity mass determination and atmospheric characterization of the most favorable targets with JWST and future facilities. We discuss the implications of this yield for comparative studies of Earth-Venus divergence, synergies with the DAVINCI, VERITAS, and EnVision missions to Venus, and the role of PLATO in advancing our understanding of the runaway greenhouse boundary.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2026

Imaging Venus-like Worlds: Spectral, Polarimetric, and UV Diagnostics for the Habitable Worlds Observatory

Understanding planetary habitability requires a comparative approach that explores the divergent evolutionary outcomes of Earth and Venus. The Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO) will be uniquely positioned to conduct a statistical and physical census of terrestrial exoplanets spanning the Venus Zone (VZ) and the Habitable Zone (HZ), enabling the detection and atmospheric characterization of post-runaway greenhouse worlds (``exoVenuses''). We present an updated list of VZ exoplanets, which raises the number of known candidates to 370. We describe a science case and an observing strategy for VZ exoplanets that integrates precursor exoplanet detection data and stellar characterization with HWO direct imaging, spectroscopy across the UV/optical/IR, and spectropolarimetry. Our proposed framework emphasizes a pathway toward the diagnosis of sulfur chemistry (SO$_2$) and aerosol physics (H$_2$SO$_4$ clouds/hazes), planetary redox states (O$_2$/O$_3$ false positives from hydrogen loss), and cloud microphysics detection (rainbow polarization). We quantify implications for HWO requirements, including UV access to 0.2--0.4 $μ$m, optical/NIR coverage to $\gtrsim$1.5 $μ$m, inner working angle (IWA) reaching 0.3--1.5 AU around nearby Sun-like stars, and the SNR/resolution needed for key features. Finally, we outline a community-driven path to producing robust demographic inferences and target selection for optimizing HWO observations.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2025

Planetary Habitability Under the Light of a Rapidly Changing Star

Planetary atmospheric energy budgets primarily depend on stellar incident flux. However, stellar variability can have major consequences for the evolution of planetary climates. In this work, we evaluate how stellar variability influences the equilibrium temperature and water retention of planets within the Habitable Zone (HZ). We present a sample of 9 stars that are known to host at least one planet within the HZ and that were identified to have a variability amplitude exceeding 100 ppm based on photometry from the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS). We investigate the effect that the variability of these stars have on the insolation flux of their HZ planets and the resulting changes in the induced planetary equilibrium temperature. Our results show that for the stars in our sample, the stellar variability has an insignificant effect on the equilibrium temperature of HZ planets. However, we also emphasize that these stars are not representative of more extreme variable stars, since exoplanets are more difficult to detect and characterize in the presence of extreme variability. We also investigate the equilibrium temperature and long-term evolution of a hypothetical Earth-like planet placed at the inner edge of the HZ around a highly variable star. We found that the water loss rates are comparable between both variable and quiet host stars for Earth-like planets in the inner HZ. Overall, these results broaden our knowledge on the impact of stellar variability on planetary habitability.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2023

The Prospect of Detecting Volcanic Signatures on an ExoEarth Using Direct Imaging

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) has provided the first opportunity to study the atmospheres of terrestrial exoplanets and estimate their surface conditions. Earth-sized planets around Sun-like stars are currently inaccessible with JWST however, and will have to be observed using the next generation of telescopes with direct imaging capabilities. Detecting active volcanism on an Earth-like planet would be particularly valuable as it would provide insight into its interior, and provide context for the commonality of the interior states of Earth and Venus. In this work we used a climate model to simulate four exoEarths over eight years with ongoing large igneous province eruptions with outputs ranging from 1.8-60 Gt of sulfur dioxide. The atmospheric data from the simulations were used to model direct imaging observations between 0.2-2.0 $μ$m, producing reflectance spectra for every month of each exoEarth simulation. We calculated the amount of observation time required to detect each of the major absorption features in the spectra, and identified the most prominent effects that volcanism had on the reflectance spectra. These effects include changes in the size of the O$_3$, O$_2$, and H$_2$O absorption features, and changes in the slope of the spectrum. Of these changes, we conclude that the most detectable and least ambiguous evidence of volcanism are changes in both O$_3$ absorption and the slope of the spectrum.

astro-ph.EP↗