arXiv subjects

Colin Goldblatt

Publications and source records attributed to Colin Goldblatt.

22 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2012

The Runaway Greenhouse: implications for future climate change, geoengineering and planetary atmospheres

The ultimate climate emergency is a "runaway greenhouse": a hot and water vapour rich atmosphere limits the emission of thermal radiation to space, causing runaway warming. Warming ceases only once the surface reaches ~1400K and emits radiation in the near-infrared, where water is not a good greenhouse gas. This would evaporate the entire ocean and exterminate all planetary life. Venus experienced a runaway greenhouse in the past, and we expect that Earth will in around 2 billion years as solar luminosity increases. But could we bring on such a catastrophe prematurely, by our current climate-altering activities? Here we review what is known about the runaway greenhouse to answer this question, describing the various limits on outgoing radiation and how climate will evolve between these. The good news is that almost all lines of evidence lead us to believe that is unlikely to be possible, even in principle, to trigger full a runaway greenhouse by addition of non-condensible greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. However, our understanding of the dynamics, thermodynamics, radiative transfer and cloud physics of hot and steamy atmospheres is weak. We cannot therefore completely rule out the possibility that human actions might cause a transition, if not to full runaway, then at least to a much warmer climate state than the present one. High climate sensitivity might provide a warning. If we, or more likely our remote descendants, are threatened with a runaway greenhouse then geoengineering to reflect sunlight might be life's only hope. ...[2 sentences cut to meet arXiv char limit]... The runaway greenhouse also remains relevant in planetary sciences and astrobiology: as extrasolar planets smaller and nearer to their stars are detected, some will be in a runaway greenhouse state.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2011

Faint young Sun paradox remains

The Sun was fainter when the Earth was young, but the climate was generally at least as warm as today; this is known as the `faint young Sun paradox'. Rosing et al. [1] claim that the paradox can be resolved by making the early Earth's clouds and surface less reflective. We show that, even with the strongest plausible assumptions, reducing cloud and surface albedos falls short by a factor of two of resolving the paradox. A temperate Archean climate cannot be reconciled with the low level of CO2 suggested by Rosing et al. [1]; a stronger greenhouse effect is needed.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2011

Clouds and the Faint Young Sun Paradox

We investigate the role which clouds could play in resolving the Faint Young Sun Paradox (FYSP). Lower solar luminosity in the past means that less energy was absorbed on Earth (a forcing of -50 Wm-2 during the late Archean), but geological evidence points to the Earth being at least as warm as it is today, with only very occasional glaciations. We perform radiative calculations on a single global mean atmospheric column. We select a nominal set of three layered, randomly overlapping clouds, which are both consistent with observed cloud climatologies and reproduce the observed global mean energy budget of Earth. By varying the fraction, thickness, height and particle size of these clouds we conduct a wide exploration of how changed clouds could affect climate, thus constraining how clouds could contribute to resolving the FYSP. Low clouds reflect sunlight but have little greenhouse effect. Removing them entirely gives a~forcing of +25 Wm-2 whilst more modest reduction in their efficacy gives a forcing of +10 to +15 Wm-2. For high clouds, the greenhouse effect dominates. It is possible to generate +50 Wm-2 forcing from enhancing these, but this requires making them 3.5 times thicker and 14 K colder than the standard high cloud in our nominal set and expanding their coverage to 100% of the sky. Such changes are not credible. More plausible changes would generate no more that +15 Wm-2 forcing. Thus neither fewer low clouds nor more high clouds can provide enough forcing to resolve the FYSP. Decreased surface albedo can contribute no more than +5 Wm-2 forcing. Some models which have been applied to the FYSP do not include clouds at all. These overestimate the forcing due to increased CO2 by 20 to 25% when CO2 is 0.01 to 0.1 bar.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2010

A Patchy Cloud Model for the L to T Dwarf Transition

One of the mechanisms suggested for the L to T dwarf spectral type transition is the appearance of relatively cloud-free regions across the disk of brown dwarfs as they cool. The existence of partly cloudy regions has been supported by evidence for variability in dwarfs in the late L to early T spectral range, but no self-consistent atmosphere models of such partly cloudy objects have yet been constructed. Here we present a new approach for consistently modeling partly cloudy brown dwarfs and giant planets. We find that even a small fraction of cloud holes dramatically alter the atmospheric thermal profile, spectra, and photometric colors of a given object. With decreasing cloudiness objects briskly become bluer in J - K and brighten in J band, as is observed at the L/T transition. Model spectra of partly cloudy objects are similar to our models with globally homogenous, but thinner, clouds. Hence spectra alone may not be sufficient to distinguish partial cloudiness although variability and polarization measurements are potential observational signatures. Finally we note that partial cloud cover may be an alternative explanation for the blue L dwarfs.

astro-ph.SR↗