arXiv subjects

Concha Bielza

Publications and source records attributed to Concha Bielza.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Transfer learning for nonparametric Bayesian networks

This paper introduces two transfer learning methodologies for estimating nonparametric Bayesian networks under scarce data. We propose two algorithms, a constraint-based structure learning method, called PC-stable-transfer learning (PCS-TL), and a score-based method, called hill climbing transfer learning (HC-TL). We also define particular metrics to tackle the negative transfer problem in each of them, a situation in which transfer learning has a negative impact on the model's performance. Then, for the parameters, we propose a log-linear pooling approach. For the evaluation, we learn kernel density estimation Bayesian networks, a type of nonparametric Bayesian network, and compare their transfer learning performance with the models alone. To do so, we sample data from small, medium and large-sized synthetic networks and datasets from the UCI Machine Learning repository. Then, we add noise and modifications to these datasets to test their ability to avoid negative transfer. To conclude, we perform a Friedman test with a Bergmann-Hommel post-hoc analysis to show statistical proof of the enhanced experimental behavior of our methods. Thus, PCS-TL and HC-TL demonstrate to be reliable algorithms for improving the learning performance of a nonparametric Bayesian network with scarce data, which in real industrial environments implies a reduction in the required time to deploy the network.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Optimal Transport Group Counterfactual Explanations

Group counterfactual explanations find a set of counterfactual instances to explain a group of input instances contrastively. However, existing methods either (i) optimize counterfactuals only for a fixed group and do not generalize to new group members, (ii) strictly rely on strong model assumptions (e.g., linearity) for tractability or/and (iii) poorly control the counterfactual group geometry distortion. We instead learn an explicit optimal transport map that sends any group instance to its counterfactual without re-optimization, minimizing the group's total transport cost. This enables generalization with fewer parameters, making it easier to interpret the common actionable recourse. For linear classifiers, we prove that functions representing group counterfactuals are derived via mathematical optimization, identifying the underlying convex optimization type (QP, QCQP, ...). Experiments show that they accurately generalize, preserve group geometry and incur only negligible additional transport cost compared to baseline methods. If model linearity cannot be exploited, our approach also significantly outperforms the baselines.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Actionable Counterfactual Explanations Using Bayesian Networks and Path Planning with Applications to Environmental Quality Improvement

Counterfactual explanations study what should have changed in order to get an alternative result, enabling end-users to understand machine learning mechanisms with counterexamples. Actionability is defined as the ability to transform the original case to be explained into a counterfactual one. We develop a method for actionable counterfactual explanations that, unlike predecessors, does not directly leverage training data. Rather, data is only used to learn a density estimator, creating a search landscape in which to apply path planning algorithms to solve the problem and masking the endogenous data, which can be sensitive or private. We put special focus on estimating the data density using Bayesian networks, demonstrating how their enhanced interpretability is useful in high-stakes scenarios in which fairness is raising concern. Using a synthetic benchmark comprised of 15 datasets, our proposal finds more actionable and simpler counterfactuals than the current state-of-the-art algorithms. We also test our algorithm with a real-world Environmental Protection Agency dataset, facilitating a more efficient and equitable study of policies to improve the quality of life in United States of America counties. Our proposal captures the interaction of variables, ensuring equity in decisions, as policies to improve certain domains of study (air, water quality, etc.) can be detrimental in others. In particular, the sociodemographic domain is often involved, where we find important variables related to the ongoing housing crisis that can potentially have a severe negative impact on communities.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Binned semiparametric Bayesian networks for efficient kernel density estimation

This paper introduces a new type of probabilistic semiparametric model that takes advantage of data binning to reduce the computational cost of kernel density estimation in nonparametric distributions. Two new conditional probability distributions are developed for the new binned semiparametric Bayesian networks, the sparse binned kernel density estimation and the Fourier kernel density estimation. These two probability distributions address the curse of dimensionality, which typically impacts binned models, by using sparse tensors and restricting the number of parent nodes in conditional probability calculations. To evaluate the proposal, we perform a complexity analysis and conduct several comparative experiments using synthetic data and datasets from the UCI Machine Learning repository. The experiments include different binning rules, parent restrictions, grid sizes, and number of instances to get a holistic view of the model's behavior. As a result, our binned semiparametric Bayesian networks achieve structural learning and log-likelihood estimations with no statistically significant differences compared to the semiparametric Bayesian networks, but at a much higher speed. Thus, the new binned semiparametric Bayesian networks prove to be a reliable and more efficient alternative to their non-binned counterparts.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Bandwidth Selectors on Semiparametric Bayesian Networks

Semiparametric Bayesian networks (SPBNs) integrate parametric and non-parametric probabilistic models, offering flexibility in learning complex data distributions from samples. In particular, kernel density estimators (KDEs) are employed for the non-parametric component. Under the assumption of data normality, the normal rule is used to learn the bandwidth matrix for the KDEs in SPBNs. This matrix is the key hyperparameter that controls the trade-off between bias and variance. However, real-world data often deviates from normality, potentially leading to suboptimal density estimation and reduced predictive performance. This paper first establishes the theoretical framework for the application of state-of-the-art bandwidth selectors and subsequently evaluates their impact on SPBN performance. We explore the approaches of cross-validation and plug-in selectors, assessing their effectiveness in enhancing the learning capability and applicability of SPBNs. To support this investigation, we have extended the open-source package PyBNesian for SPBNs with the additional bandwidth selection techniques and conducted extensive experimental analyses. Our results demonstrate that the proposed bandwidth selectors leverage increasing information more effectively than the normal rule, which, despite its robustness, stagnates with more data. In particular, unbiased cross-validation generally outperforms the normal rule, highlighting its advantage in high sample size scenarios.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Trainability maximization using estimation of distribution algorithms assisted by surrogate modelling for quantum architecture search

Quantum architecture search (QAS) involves optimizing both the quantum parametric circuit configuration but also its parameters for a variational quantum algorithm. Thus, the problem is known to be multi-level as the performance of a given architecture is unknown until its parameters are tuned using classical routines. Moreover, the task becomes even more complicated since well-known trainability issues, e.g., barren plateaus (BPs), can occur. In this paper, we aim to achieve two improvements in QAS: (1) to reduce the number of measurements by an online surrogate model of the evaluation process that aggressively discards architectures of poor performance; (2) to avoid training the circuits when BPs are present. To detect the presence of the BPs, we employed a recently developed metric, information content, which only requires measuring the energy values of a small set of parameters to estimate the magnitude of cost function's gradient. The main idea of this proposal is to leverage a recently developed metric which can be used to detect the onset of vanishing gradients to ensure the overall search avoids such unfavorable regions. We experimentally validate our proposal for the variational quantum eigensolver and showcase that our algorithm is able to find solutions that have been previously proposed in the literature for the Hamiltonians; but also to outperform the state of the art when initializing the method from the set of architectures proposed in the literature. The results suggest that the proposed methodology could be used in environments where it is desired to improve the trainability of known architectures while maintaining good performance.

quant-ph↗

arXiv2023

Context-specific kernel-based hidden Markov model for time series analysis

Traditional hidden Markov models have been a useful tool to understand and model stochastic dynamic data; in the case of non-Gaussian data, models such as mixture of Gaussian hidden Markov models can be used. However, these suffer from the computation of precision matrices and have a lot of unnecessary parameters. As a consequence, such models often perform better when it is assumed that all variables are independent, a hypothesis that may be unrealistic. Hidden Markov models based on kernel density estimation are also capable of modeling non-Gaussian data, but they assume independence between variables. In this article, we introduce a new hidden Markov model based on kernel density estimation, which is capable of capturing kernel dependencies using context-specific Bayesian networks. The proposed model is described, together with a learning algorithm based on the expectation-maximization algorithm. Additionally, the model is compared to related HMMs on synthetic and real data. From the results, the benefits in likelihood and classification accuracy from the proposed model are quantified and analyzed.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2023

Classifying the evolution of COVID-19 severity on patients with combined dynamic Bayesian networks and neural networks

When we face patients arriving to a hospital suffering from the effects of some illness, one of the main problems we can encounter is evaluating whether or not said patients are going to require intensive care in the near future. This intensive care requires allotting valuable and scarce resources, and knowing beforehand the severity of a patients illness can improve both its treatment and the organization of resources. We illustrate this issue in a dataset consistent of Spanish COVID-19 patients from the sixth epidemic wave where we label patients as critical when they either had to enter the intensive care unit or passed away. We then combine the use of dynamic Bayesian networks, to forecast the vital signs and the blood analysis results of patients over the next 40 hours, and neural networks, to evaluate the severity of a patients disease in that interval of time. Our empirical results show that the transposition of the current state of a patient to future values with the DBN for its subsequent use in classification obtains better the accuracy and g-mean score than a direct application with a classifier.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Quantum Approximate Optimization Algorithm for Bayesian network structure learning

Bayesian network structure learning is an NP-hard problem that has been faced by a number of traditional approaches in recent decades. Currently, quantum technologies offer a wide range of advantages that can be exploited to solve optimization tasks that cannot be addressed in an efficient way when utilizing classic computing approaches. In this work, a specific type of variational quantum algorithm, the quantum approximate optimization algorithm, was used to solve the Bayesian network structure learning problem, by employing $3n(n-1)/2$ qubits, where $n$ is the number of nodes in the Bayesian network to be learned. Our results showed that the quantum approximate optimization algorithm approach offers competitive results with state-of-the-art methods and quantitative resilience to quantum noise. The approach was applied to a cancer benchmark problem, and the results justified the use of variational quantum algorithms for solving the Bayesian network structure learning problem.

quant-ph↗

arXiv2021

Semiparametric Bayesian Networks

We introduce semiparametric Bayesian networks that combine parametric and nonparametric conditional probability distributions. Their aim is to incorporate the advantages of both components: the bounded complexity of parametric models and the flexibility of nonparametric ones. We demonstrate that semiparametric Bayesian networks generalize two well-known types of Bayesian networks: Gaussian Bayesian networks and kernel density estimation Bayesian networks. For this purpose, we consider two different conditional probability distributions required in a semiparametric Bayesian network. In addition, we present modifications of two well-known algorithms (greedy hill-climbing and PC) to learn the structure of a semiparametric Bayesian network from data. To realize this, we employ a score function based on cross-validation. In addition, using a validation dataset, we apply an early-stopping criterion to avoid overfitting. To evaluate the applicability of the proposed algorithm, we conduct an exhaustive experiment on synthetic data sampled by mixing linear and nonlinear functions, multivariate normal data sampled from Gaussian Bayesian networks, real data from the UCI repository, and bearings degradation data. As a result of this experiment, we conclude that the proposed algorithm accurately learns the combination of parametric and nonparametric components, while achieving a performance comparable with those provided by state-of-the-art methods.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Autoregressive Asymmetric Linear Gaussian Hidden Markov Models

In a real life process evolving over time, the relationship between its relevant variables may change. Therefore, it is advantageous to have different inference models for each state of the process. Asymmetric hidden Markov models fulfil this dynamical requirement and provide a framework where the trend of the process can be expressed as a latent variable. In this paper, we modify these recent asymmetric hidden Markov models to have an asymmetric autoregressive component, allowing the model to choose the order of autoregression that maximizes its penalized likelihood for a given training set. Additionally, we show how inference, hidden states decoding and parameter learning must be adapted to fit the proposed model. Finally, we run experiments with synthetic and real data to show the capabilities of this new model.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Sparse Cholesky covariance parametrization for recovering latent structure in ordered data

The sparse Cholesky parametrization of the inverse covariance matrix can be interpreted as a Gaussian Bayesian network; however its counterpart, the covariance Cholesky factor, has received, with few notable exceptions, little attention so far, despite having a natural interpretation as a hidden variable model for ordered signal data. To fill this gap, in this paper we focus on arbitrary zero patterns in the Cholesky factor of a covariance matrix. We discuss how these models can also be extended, in analogy with Gaussian Bayesian networks, to data where no apparent order is available. For the ordered scenario, we propose a novel estimation method that is based on matrix loss penalization, as opposed to the existing regression-based approaches. The performance of this sparse model for the Cholesky factor, together with our novel estimator, is assessed in a simulation setting, as well as over spatial and temporal real data where a natural ordering arises among the variables. We give guidelines, based on the empirical results, about which of the methods analysed is more appropriate for each setting.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2020

On generating random Gaussian graphical models

Structure learning methods for covariance and concentration graphs are often validated on synthetic models, usually obtained by randomly generating: (i) an undirected graph, and (ii) a compatible symmetric positive definite (SPD) matrix. In order to ensure positive definiteness in (ii), a dominant diagonal is usually imposed. In this work we investigate different methods to generate random symmetric positive definite matrices with undirected graphical constraints. We show that if the graph is chordal it is possible to sample uniformly from the set of correlation matrices compatible with the graph, while for general undirected graphs we rely on a partial orthogonalization method.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2019

A review of Gaussian Markov models for conditional independence

Markov models lie at the interface between statistical independence in a probability distribution and graph separation properties. We review model selection and estimation in directed and undirected Markov models with Gaussian parametrization, emphasizing the main similarities and differences. These two model classes are similar but not equivalent, although they share a common intersection. We present the existing results from a historical perspective, taking into account the amount of literature existing from both the artificial intelligence and statistics research communities, where these models were originated. We cover classical topics such as maximum likelihood estimation and model selection via hypothesis testing, but also more modern approaches like regularization and Bayesian methods. We also discuss how the Markov models reviewed fit in the rich hierarchy of other, higher level Markov model classes. Finally, we close the paper overviewing relaxations of the Gaussian assumption and pointing out the main areas of application where these Markov models are nowadays used.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2019

A community-based transcriptomics classification and nomenclature of neocortical cell types

To understand the function of cortical circuits it is necessary to classify their underlying cellular diversity. Traditional attempts based on comparing anatomical or physiological features of neurons and glia, while productive, have not resulted in a unified taxonomy of neural cell types. The recent development of single-cell transcriptomics has enabled, for the first time, systematic high-throughput profiling of large numbers of cortical cells and the generation of datasets that hold the promise of being complete, accurate and permanent. Statistical analyses of these data have revealed the existence of clear clusters, many of which correspond to cell types defined by traditional criteria, and which are conserved across cortical areas and species. To capitalize on these innovations and advance the field, we, the Copenhagen Convention Group, propose the community adopts a transcriptome-based taxonomy of the cell types in the adult mammalian neocortex. This core classification should be ontological, hierarchical and use a standardized nomenclature. It should be configured to flexibly incorporate new data from multiple approaches, developmental stages and a growing number of species, enabling improvement and revision of the classification. This community-based strategy could serve as a common foundation for future detailed analysis and reverse engineering of cortical circuits and serve as an example for cell type classification in other parts of the nervous system and other organs.

q-bio.GN↗

arXiv2018

Towards Gaussian Bayesian Network Fusion

Data sets are growing in complexity thanks to the increasing facilities we have nowadays to both generate and store data. This poses many challenges to machine learning that are leading to the proposal of new methods and paradigms, in order to be able to deal with what is nowadays referred to as Big Data. In this paper we propose a method for the aggregation of different Bayesian network structures that have been learned from separate data sets, as a first step towards mining data sets that need to be partitioned in an horizontal way, i.e. with respect to the instances, in order to be processed. Considerations that should be taken into account when dealing with this situation are discussed. Scalable learning of Bayesian networks is slowly emerging, and our method constitutes one of the first insights into Gaussian Bayesian network aggregation from different sources. Tested on synthetic data it obtains good results that surpass those from individual learning. Future research will be focused on expanding the method and testing more diverse data sets.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2018

Markov Property in Generative Classifiers

We show that, for generative classifiers, conditional independence corresponds to linear constraints for the induced discrimination functions. Discrimination functions of undirected Markov network classifiers can thus be characterized by sets of linear constraints. These constraints are represented by a second order finite difference operator over functions of categorical variables. As an application we study the expressive power of generative classifiers under the undirected Markov property and we present a general method to combine discriminative and generative classifiers.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2018

A fast Metropolis-Hastings method for generating random correlation matrices

We propose a novel Metropolis-Hastings algorithm to sample uniformly from the space of correlation matrices. Existing methods in the literature are based on elaborated representations of a correlation matrix, or on complex parametrizations of it. By contrast, our method is intuitive and simple, based the classical Cholesky factorization of a positive definite matrix and Markov chain Monte Carlo theory. We perform a detailed convergence analysis of the resulting Markov chain, and show how it benefits from fast convergence, both theoretically and empirically. Furthermore, in numerical experiments our algorithm is shown to be significantly faster than the current alternative approaches, thanks to its simple yet principled approach.

stat.CO↗