Congshan Zhang | Searcharxiv

arXiv2026

Adaptive Exploration for Latent-State Bandits

We study bandits whose rewards depend on an unobserved Markov state that evolves independently of the learner's actions. The optimal arm can change even though the learner observes only past actions and rewards. We propose algorithms that feed LinUCB with two summaries of the hidden state: a lagged action-reward pair and, when available, a probe fingerprint formed from rewards of multiple arms. The adaptive variants refresh the fingerprint using residual, margin, and staleness tests. In synthetic stress tests over state count, transition rate, noise, and horizon, these methods reduce dynamic regret relative to standard, adversarial, and non-stationary bandit baselines when the summaries distinguish states and are updated often enough. Ablations and misspecification tests identify the main failure modes: weak fingerprint separation, high noise, and state changes during sequential probes.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Interference Among First-Price Pacing Equilibria: A Bias and Variance Analysis

Online A/B testing is widely used in the internet industry to inform decisions on new feature roll-outs. For online marketplaces (such as advertising markets), standard approaches to A/B testing may lead to biased results when buyers operate under a budget constraint, as budget consumption in one arm of the experiment impacts performance of the other arm. To counteract this interference, one can use a budget-split design where the budget constraint operates on a per-arm basis and each arm receives an equal fraction of the budget, leading to ``budget-controlled A/B testing.'' Despite clear advantages of budget-controlled A/B testing, performance degrades when budget are split too small, limiting the overall throughput of such systems. In this paper, we propose a parallel budget-controlled A/B testing design where we use market segmentation to identify submarkets in the larger market, and we run parallel experiments on each submarket. Our contributions are as follows: First, we introduce and demonstrate the effectiveness of the parallel budget-controlled A/B test design with submarkets in a large online marketplace environment. Second, we formally define market interference in first-price auction markets using the first price pacing equilibrium (FPPE) framework. Third, we propose a debiased surrogate that eliminates the first-order bias of FPPE, drawing upon the principles of sensitivity analysis in mathematical programs. Fourth, we derive a plug-in estimator for the surrogate and establish its asymptotic normality. Fifth, we provide an estimation procedure for submarket parallel budget-controlled A/B tests. Finally, we present numerical examples on semi-synthetic data, confirming that the debiasing technique achieves the desired coverage properties.

math.ST↗