arXiv subjects

Coral Wheeler

Publications and source records attributed to Coral Wheeler.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Beyond Cloud-9: The case for discovering more HI-rich failed halos

HI-rich starless halos, should they exist, hold great promise for elucidating dark matter halo structure. Yet realizing this potential demands reliable theoretical predictions for their properties and abundances. Indeed, the recent identification of Cloud-9 as a strong HI-rich starless halo candidate in the nearby universe makes such predictions timely. This Letter examines HI-rich ($M_\mathrm{HI} \geq 10^6\,M_\odot$) starless (isolated/central) halos at $z=0$ across three cosmological simulations: FIREbox, Recal-EAGLE and NIVARIA-LG. All three successfully produce such objects, with $M_\mathrm{HI}$ extending up to $\sim\!1$--$2$ dex above Cloud-9, but with number densities that vary by a factor of $\sim30$. These populations span different regions of the $M_\mathrm{HI}$--$M_\mathrm{gas}$--$M_{200}$ space: NIVARIA-LG produces objects with higher $M_\mathrm{HI}$ and $M_\mathrm{gas}$ values ($\gtrsim 10^7$ and $\gtrsim 10^8\,M_\odot$), while FIREbox predicts they lie within extremely narrow ranges of $M_\mathrm{gas} \sim(1.1$--$1.6)\times10^8\,M_\odot$ and $M_{200} \sim(7.8$--$8.6)\times10^9\,M_\odot$. Recal-EAGLE and NIVARIA-LG exhibit a strong $M_\mathrm{gas}-M_{200}$ correlation, with similar slopes but different normalizations. The simulations predict numerical Cloud-9 analogs -- though similarities in the shapes of their HI column-density profiles may be driven by FAST's modest beam; halving it already reveals differences. Collectively, these inter-simulation discrepancies make a compelling case for discoveries beyond Cloud-9: a statistical sample of well-resolved HI-rich starless halos is needed to discriminate amongst competing predictions.

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arXiv2026

Enhanced Multiphase Circumgalactic Medium and Gas Cycling in Galaxy Mergers

We investigate the impact of galaxy mergers on the circumgalactic medium (CGM) using the FIREbox cosmological hydrodynamic simulation. By comparing matched samples of merging and isolated galaxies with stellar masses $M_\star \sim 10^{10}$--$10^{11} M_{\odot}$ at $z=0$ and mass ratio of merging galaxies larger than $1:10$, we find that mergers significantly alter CGM properties. Merging systems exhibit enhanced radiative cooling, leading to shorter cooling times than free-fall times across large CGM volumes. This results in amplified multiphase structure and increased cool/cold gas content ($T \sim 10^4K$) compared to isolated galaxies. Both inflow and outflow mass fluxes are elevated by at least $\sim$1 dex in mergers across all temperature phases, with cool gas primarily generated in-situ via radiative cooling rather than from pre-existing streams. Gas cycling analysis reveals that mergers fundamentally accelerate CGM processing, amplifying the effective transfer rate from cold/cool cosmic inflow to galaxy inflow by factors of $\sim 30$, through rapid cycling of inflowing gas through intermediate CGM phases, efficiently fueling the ISM and star formation. The enhanced cool gas content in mergers produces elevated column densities for low- and intermediate-temperature ion species in the inner CGM, while high-temperature ones remain largely unaffected.

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arXiv2025

The quenched fraction of satellites around simulated Milky Way-mass galaxies

We compare satellite quenched fractions across three cosmological simulation suites (FIREbox, the FIRE-2 zoom-ins, and IllustrisTNG50) and observational datasets from SAGA, ELVES, and the combined satellite population of the Milky Way and M31. To enable consistent comparisons, we select Milky Way-mass hosts with $M_{\rm halo} = 10^{11.9}$ - $10^{12.2} \, M_{\odot}$ and satellites with stellar masses of $10^7$ - $10^{10} \, M_{\odot}$, applying nearly uniform radial selections and a common quenching definition. All three simulations reproduce the strong observed trend that lower-mass satellites are more likely to be quenched, closely matching the stellar mass dependence seen in SAGA, ELVES, and the Milky Way and M31 system. This agreement indicates that the mass dependence of satellite quenching is a robust outcome of contemporary galaxy formation models. Radial trends, however, show greater diversity. SAGA and ELVES exhibit gently declining quenched fractions with projected distance, consistent with stronger quenching at small radii. TNG50 most closely matches this behavior, while FIREbox remains broadly consistent with a weak radial trend within uncertainties. The FIRE-2 zoom-ins show suppressed quenched fractions at small projected distances, driven primarily by their paired MW-M31 analogs. We show that this discrepancy is not explained by host environment alone, but instead reflects atypical satellite populations in the paired systems, where star-forming and quenched satellites occupy distinct spatial distributions. Overall, our results demonstrate that stellar mass-quenched fraction trends are robust across simulations and observations, while radial trends are more sensitive to the detailed properties and distributions of satellite populations

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arXiv2025

Igniting galaxy formation in the post-reionization universe

It is widely believed that the ultraviolet background produced during the epoch of reionization conspires against the formation of low-mass galaxies. Indeed, this mechanism is often invoked as a solution to the so-called `missing satellites problem.' In this paper we employ FIREbox, a large-volume cosmological simulation based on the Feedback In Realistic Environments (FIRE-2) physics model, to characterize the mechanisms governing galaxy ignition in the post-reionization era. By carefully matching recently-ignited halos (with stellar ages below $100$ Myr at the time of selection) to halos that failed to form any stars, we conclude that the presence of cold-dense gas and halo concentration help incite the process of galaxy formation. Concretely, we find that $100\%$ of recently-ignited halos experience cold-dense gas enhancements relative to their matched failed counterparts. Likewise, approximately $83\%$ display enhancements in both cold-dense gas and Navarro-Frenk-White concentration ($c_{\rm NFW}$), while the remaining $\sim17\%$ exhibit enhanced cold-dense gas content and suppressed $c_{\rm NFW}$ values. Lastly, our simulation suggests that galaxy ignition can occur as late as $z=2$, potentially allowing us to observationally catch this process `in the act' in the foreseeable future.

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arXiv2025

Second public data release of the FIRE-2 cosmological zoom-in simulations of galaxy formation

We describe the second data release (DR2) of the FIRE-2 cosmological zoom-in simulations of galaxy formation, from the Feedback In Realistic Environments (FIRE) project, available at http://flathub.flatironinstitute.org/fire. DR2 includes all snapshots for most simulations, starting at z ~ 99, with all snapshot time spacings <~ 25 Myr. The Core suite -- comprising 14 Milky Way-mass galaxies, 5 SMC/LMC-mass galaxies, and 4 lower-mass galaxies -- includes 601 snapshots to z = 0. For the Core suite, we also release resimulations with physics variations: (1) dark-matter-only versions; (2) a modified ultraviolet background with later reionization at z = 7.8; (3) magnetohydrodynamics, anisotropic conduction, and viscosity in gas; and (4) a model for cosmic-ray injection, transport, and feedback (assuming a constant diffusion coefficient). The Massive Halo suite now includes 8 massive galaxies with 278 snapshots to z = 1. The High Redshift suite includes 34 simulations: in addition to the 22 simulations run to z = 5, we now include 12 additional simulations run to z = 7 and z = 9. We also release 4 dark-matter-only cosmological boxes used to generate zoom-in initial conditions for many FIRE simulations. Most simulations include catalogs of (sub)halos and galaxies at all available snapshots, and most Core simulations to z = 0 include full halo merger trees.

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arXiv2025

Disks no more: the morphology of low-mass simulated galaxies in FIREbox

We study the morphology of hundreds of simulated central galaxies in the stellar mass range $M_\star=10^{7.5} \rm - 10^{11}~$\msun\, from the FIREbox cosmological volume. We demonstrate that FIREbox is able to predict a wide variety of morphologies, spanning from disk-dominated objects to spheroidal galaxies supported by stellar velocity dispersion. However, the simulations predict a strong relation between morphology (degree of rotational support) and stellar mass: galaxies comparable to the Milky Way are often disk-dominated while the presence of stellar disks mostly vanishes for dwarfs with $M_\star <10^9 ~$\msun. This defines a ``morphology transition'' regime for galaxies with $10^9 <M_\star/\rm{M_\odot}< 10^{10}$ in which disks become increasingly common, but below which disks are rare. We show that burstiness in the star formation history and the deepening of the gravitational potential strongly correlate in our simulations with this transition regime, with disks forming in objects with lower levels of burstiness in the last $\sim 6$ Gyr and halos with mass $\sim 10^{11} ~ \rm{M_{\odot}}$ and above. While observations support a transition towards thicker disks in the regime of dwarfs, our results are in partial disagreement with observations of at least some largely rotationally supported gas disks in dwarfs with $M_\star < 10^9$\msun. This study highlights dwarf morphology as a fundamental benchmark for testing future galaxy formation models.

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arXiv2025

How invisible stellar halos bias our understanding of ultra-faint galaxies

We explore how a realistic surface brightness detection limit of $\mu_V \approx 32.5$ mag arcsec$^{-2}$ for stars at the edges of ultra-faint galaxies affects our ability to infer their underlying properties. We use a sample of 19 galaxies with stellar masses $\approx 400 - 40,000~{\rm M}_\odot$ simulated with FIRE-2 physics and baryonic mass resolution of $30~M_{\odot}$. The surface brightness cut leads to smaller sizes, lower stellar masses, and lower stellar velocity dispersions than the values inferred without the cut. However, by imposing this realistic limit, our inferred galaxy properties lie closer to observed populations in the mass-size plane, better match observed velocity dispersions as a function of stellar mass, and better reproduce derived circular velocities as a function of half-light radius. For the most massive galaxies in our sample, the surface brightness cut leads to higher mean $\rm [Fe/H]$ values, but the increase is not enough to match the observed MZR. Finally, we demonstrate that the common Wolf et al. (2010) mass estimator is less accurate when the surface brightness cut is applied. For our lowest-mass galaxies, in particular, excluding the low-surface brightness outskirts causes us to overestimate their central dark-matter densities and virial masses. This suggests that attempts to use mass estimates of ultra-faint galaxies to constrain dark-matter physics or to place constraints on the low-mass threshold of galaxy formation must take into account surface brightness limits or risk significant biases.

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arXiv2025

Effects of galactic environment on size and dark matter content in low-mass galaxies

We utilize the cosmological volume simulation, FIREbox, to investigate how a galaxy's environment influences its size and dark matter content. Our study focuses on approximately 1,200 galaxies (886 central and 332 satellite halos) in the low-mass regime, with stellar masses between $10^6$ to $10^9$ $M_{\odot}$. We analyze the size-mass relation ($r_{50} - M_{\star}$), inner dark matter mass-stellar mass ($M^{50}_{\rm DM} - M_{\star}$) relation, and the halo mass-stellar mass ($M_{\rm halo} - M_{\star}$) relation. At fixed stellar mass, we find the galaxies experiencing stronger tidal influences, indicated by higher Perturbation Indices (PI $>$ 1) are generally larger and have lower masses relative to their counterparts with lower Perturbation Indices (PI $<$ 1). Applying a Random Forest regression model, we show that both the environment (PI) and halo mass ($M_{rm halo}$) are significant predictors of a galaxy's relative size and dark matter content. Notably, because $M_{\rm halo}$ is also strongly affected by the environment, our findings indicate that environmental conditions not only influence galactic sizes and relative inner dark matter content directly, but also indirectly through their impact on halo mass. Our results highlight a critical interplay between environmental factors and halo mass in shaping galaxy properties, affirming the environment as a fundamental driver in galaxy formation and evolution.

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arXiv2023

What Causes The Formation of Disks and End of Bursty Star Formation?

As they grow, galaxies can transition from irregular/spheroidal with 'bursty' star formation histories (SFHs), to disky with smooth SFHs. But even in simulations, the direct physical cause of such transitions remains unclear. We therefore explore this in a large suite of numerical experiments re-running portions of cosmological simulations with widely varied physics, further validated with existing FIRE simulations. We show that gas supply, cooling/thermodynamics, star formation model, Toomre scale, galaxy dynamical times, and feedback properties do not have a direct causal effect on these transitions. Rather, both the formation of disks and cessation of bursty star formation are driven by the gravitational potential, but in different ways. Disk formation is promoted when the mass profile becomes sufficiently centrally-concentrated in shape (relative to circularization radii): we show that this provides a well-defined dynamical center, ceases to support the global 'breathing modes' which can persist indefinitely in less-concentrated profiles and efficiently destroy disks, promotes orbit mixing to form a coherent angular momentum, and stabilizes the disk. Smooth SF is promoted by the potential or escape velocity (not circular velocity) becoming sufficiently large at the radii of star formation that cool, mass-loaded (momentum-conserving) outflows are trapped/confined near the galaxy, as opposed to escaping after bursts. We discuss the detailed physics, how these conditions arise in cosmological contexts, their relation to other correlated phenomena (e.g. inner halo virialization, vertical disk 'settling'), and observations.

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arXiv2023

Public data release of the FIRE-2 cosmological zoom-in simulations of galaxy formation

We describe a public data release of the FIRE-2 cosmological zoom-in simulations of galaxy formation, available at http://flathub.flatironinstitute.org/fire, from the Feedback In Realistic Environments (FIRE) project. FIRE-2 simulations achieve parsec-scale resolution to explicitly model the multi-phase interstellar medium while implementing direct models for stellar evolution and feedback, including stellar winds, core-collapse and Ia supernovae, radiation pressure, photoionization, and photoelectric heating. We release complete snapshots from 3 suites of simulations. The first comprises 20 simulations that zoom in on 14 Milky Way-mass galaxies, 5 SMC/LMC-mass galaxies, and 4 lower-mass galaxies including 1 ultra-faint; we release 39 snapshots across z = 0 - 10. The second comprises 4 massive galaxies, with 19 snapshots across z = 1 - 10. Finally, a high-redshift suite comprises 22 simulations, with 11 snapshots across z = 5 - 10. Each simulation also includes dozens of resolved lower-mass (satellite) galaxies in its zoom-in region. Snapshots include all stored properties for all dark matter, gas, and star particles, including 11 elemental abundances for stars and gas, and formation times (ages) of star particles. We also release accompanying (sub)halo catalogs, which include galaxy properties and member star particles. For the simulations to z = 0, including all Milky Way-mass galaxies, we release the formation coordinates and an "ex-situ" flag for all star particles, pointers to track particles across snapshots, catalogs of stellar streams, and multipole basis expansions for the halo mass distributions. We describe publicly available python packages for reading and analyzing these simulations.

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arXiv2023

The Stellar Kinematics of Void Dwarf Galaxies Using KCWI

Dwarf galaxies located in extremely under-dense cosmic voids are excellent test-beds for disentangling the effects of large-scale environment on galaxy formation and evolution. We present integral field spectroscopy for low-mass galaxies ($M_{\star}=10^{7}-10^{9}~M_{\odot}$) located inside (N=21) and outside (N=9) cosmic voids using the Keck Cosmic Web Imager (KCWI). Using measurements of stellar line-of-sight rotational velocity $v_{\mathrm{rot}}$ and velocity dispersion $σ_{\star}$, we test the tidal stirring hypothesis, which posits that dwarf spheroidal galaxies are formed through tidal interactions with more massive host galaxies. We measure low values of $v_{\mathrm{rot}}/σ_{\star}\lesssim2$ for our sample of isolated dwarf galaxies, and we find no trend between $v_{\mathrm{rot}}/σ_{\star}$ and distance from a massive galaxy $d_{L^{\star}}$ out to $d_{L^{\star}}\sim10$ Mpc. These suggest that dwarf galaxies can become dispersion-supported "puffy" systems even in the absence of environmental effects like tidal interactions. We also find indications of an upward trend between $v_{\mathrm{rot}}/σ_{\star}$ and galaxy stellar mass, perhaps implying that stellar disk formation depends on mass rather than environment. Although some of our conclusions may be slightly modified by systematic effects, our main result still holds: that isolated low-mass galaxies may form and remain as puffy systems rather than the dynamically cold disks predicted by classical galaxy formation theory.

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arXiv2022

The In-situ Origins of Dwarf Stellar Outskirts in FIRE-2

Extended, old, and round stellar halos appear to be ubiquitous around high-mass dwarf galaxies ($10^{8.5}<M_\star/M_\odot<10^{9.6}$) in the observed universe. However, it is unlikely that these dwarfs have undergone a sufficient number of minor mergers to form stellar halos that are composed of predominantly accreted stars. Here, we demonstrate that FIRE-2 (Feedback in Realistic Environments) cosmological zoom-in simulations are capable of producing dwarf galaxies with realistic structure, including both a thick disk and round stellar halo. Crucially, these stellar halos are formed in-situ, largely via the outward migration of disk stars. However, there also exists a large population of "non-disky" dwarfs in FIRE-2 that lack a well-defined disk/halo and do not resemble the observed dwarf population. These non-disky dwarfs tend to be either more gas poor or to have burstier recent star formation histories than the disky dwarfs, suggesting that star formation feedback may be preventing disk formation. Both classes of dwarfs underscore the power of a galaxy's intrinsic shape -- which is a direct quantification of the distribution of the galaxy's stellar content -- to interrogate the feedback implementation in simulated galaxies.

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arXiv2022

FIRE-3: Updated Stellar Evolution Models, Yields, & Microphysics and Fitting Functions for Applications in Galaxy Simulations

Increasingly, uncertainties in predictions from galaxy formation simulations (at sub-Milky Way masses) are dominated by uncertainties in stellar evolution inputs. In this paper, we present the full set of updates from the FIRE-2 version of the Feedback In Realistic Environments (FIRE) project code, to the next version, FIRE-3. While the transition from FIRE-1 to FIRE-2 focused on improving numerical methods, here we update the stellar evolution tracks used to determine stellar feedback inputs, e.g. stellar mass-loss (O/B and AGB), spectra (luminosities and ionization rates), and supernova rates (core-collapse and Ia), as well as detailed mass-dependent yields. We also update the low-temperature cooling and chemistry, to enable improved accuracy at $T \lesssim 10^{4}\,$K and densities $n\gg 1\,{\rm cm^{-3}}$, and the meta-galactic ionizing background. All of these synthesize newer empirical constraints on these quantities and updated stellar evolution and yield models from a number of groups, addressing different aspects of stellar evolution. To make the updated models as accessible as possible, we provide fitting functions for all of the relevant updated tracks, yields, etc, in a form specifically designed so they can be directly 'plugged in' to existing galaxy formation simulations. We also summarize the default FIRE-3 implementations of 'optional' physics, including spectrally-resolved cosmic rays and supermassive black hole growth and feedback.

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arXiv2022

Exploring metallicity-dependent rates of Type Ia supernovae and their impact on galaxy formation

Type Ia supernovae play a critical role in stellar feedback and elemental enrichment in galaxies. Recent transient surveys like the All-Sky Automated Survey for Supernova (ASAS-SN) and the Dark Energy Survey (DES) find that the specific Ia rate at z ~ 0 may be ~ 15-50 times higher in lower-mass galaxies than at Milky Way-mass. Independently, Milky Way observations show that the close-binary fraction of solar-type stars is higher at lower metallicity. Motivated by these observations, we use the FIRE-2 cosmological zoom-in simulations to explore the impact of varying Ia rate models, including metallicity dependence, on galaxies across a range of stellar masses: 10^7 Msun - 10^{11} Msun. First, we benchmark our simulated star-formation histories (SFHs) against observations. We show that assumed SFHs and stellar mass functions play a major role in determining the degree of tension between observations and metallicity-independent Ia rate models, and potentially cause ASAS-SN and DES observations to be much more consistent with each other than might naively appear. Models in which the Ia rate increases with decreasing metallicity (as ~ Z^{-0.5} to Z^{-1}) provide significantly better agreement with observations. Encouragingly, these increases in Ia rate (> 10 times in low-mass galaxies) do not significantly impact galaxy stellar masses and morphologies: effective radii, axis ratios, and v/sigma remain largely unaffected except for our most extreme rate models. We explore implications for both [Fe/H] and [alpha/Fe] enrichment: metallicity-dependent Ia rate models can improve agreement with observed stellar mass-metallicity relations in low-mass galaxies. Our results demonstrate that a wide range of metallicity-dependent Ia models are viable for galaxy formation and motivate future work in this area.

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arXiv2022

Galaxies lacking dark matter produced by close encounters in a cosmological simulation

The standard cold dark matter plus cosmological constant model predicts that galaxies form within dark-matter haloes, and that low-mass galaxies are more dark-matter dominated than massive ones. The unexpected discovery of two low-mass galaxies lacking dark matter immediately provoked concerns about the standard cosmology and ignited explorations of alternatives, including self-interacting dark matter and modified gravity. Apprehension grew after several cosmological simulations using the conventional model failed to form adequate numerical analogues with comparable internal characteristics (stellar masses, sizes, velocity dispersions and morphologies). Here we show that the standard paradigm naturally produces galaxies lacking dark matter with internal characteristics in agreement with observations. Using a state-of-the-art cosmological simulation and a meticulous galaxy-identification technique, we find that extreme close encounters with massive neighbours can be responsible for this. We predict that approximately 30 percent of massive central galaxies (with at least 1e11 solar masses in stars) harbour at least one dark-matter-deficient satellite (with 1e8 - 1e9 solar masses in stars). This distinctive class of galaxies provides an additional layer in our understanding of the role of interactions in shaping galactic properties. Future observations surveying galaxies in the aforementioned regime will provide a crucial test of this scenario.

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arXiv2020

NGC 6822 as a probe of dwarf galactic evolution

NGC 6822 is the closest isolated dwarf irregular galaxy to the Milky Way. Its proximity and stellar mass ($10^8 M_\odot$, large for a dwarf galaxy) allow for a detailed study of its kinematic properties. The red giant branch (RGB) stars at the galaxy's center are particularly interesting because they are aligned on an axis perpendicular to the galaxy's more extended HI disk. We detected a velocity gradient among the RGB population using spectra from Keck DEIMOS. This rotation is aligned with the HI disk, but the sense of rotation is about the major axis of the central RGB population. We measured the rotation velocity ($v$) and velocity dispersion ($σ$) of the RGB population in five metallicity bins. We found an increase of rotation support ($v/σ$) with increasing metallicity, driven primarily by decreasing dispersion. We also deduced an increasing radial distance for lower metallicity stars at $-0.5$~kpc/dex by relating the observed stellar kinematics to position via NGC 6822's HI velocity curve. While the inverted metallicity gradient-like could be interpreted as evidence for an outside-in formation scenario, it may instead indicate that stellar feedback disturbed a centrally star forming galaxy over time.

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arXiv2020

A dark matter profile to model diverse feedback-induced core sizes of $Λ$CDM haloes

We analyze the cold dark matter density profiles of 54 galaxy halos simulated with FIRE-2 galaxy formation physics, each resolved within $0.5\%$ of the halo virial radius. These halos contain galaxies with masses that range from ultra-faint dwarfs ($M_\star \simeq 10^{4.5} M_{\odot}$) to the largest spirals ($M_\star \simeq 10^{11} M_{\odot}$) and have density profiles that are both cored and cuspy. We characterize our results using a new analytic density profile that extends the standard Einasto form to allow for a pronounced constant-density core in the resolved innermost radius. With one additional core-radius parameter, $r_{c}$, this "core-Einasto" profile is able to characterize the shape and normalization of our feedback-impacted dark matter halos. In order to enable comparisons with observations, we provide fitting functions for $r_{c}$ and other profile parameters as a function of both $M_\star$ and $M_{\star}/M_{\rm halo}$. In agreement with similar studies done in the literature, we find that dark matter core formation is most efficient at the characteristic stellar-mass to halo-mass ratio $M_\star/M_{\rm halo} \simeq 5 \times 10^{-3}$, or $M_{\star} \sim 10^9 \, M_{\odot}$, with cores that are roughly the size of the galaxy half-light radius, $r_{c} \simeq 1-5$ kpc. Furthermore, we find no evidence for core formation at radii $\gtrsim 100\ \rm pc$ in galaxies with $M_{\star}/M_{\rm halo} < 5\times 10^{-4}$ or $M_\star \lesssim 10^6 \, M_{\odot}$. For Milky Way-size galaxies, baryonic contraction often makes halos significantly more concentrated and dense at the stellar half-light radius than dark matter only runs. However, even at the Milky Way scale, FIRE-2 galaxy formation still produces small dark matter cores of $\simeq 0.5-2$ kpc in size. Recent evidence for a ${\sim} 2$ kpc core in the Milky Way's dark matter halo is consistent with this expectation.

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arXiv2019

Astro2020 APC White Paper: Theoretical Astrophysics 2020-2030

The past two decades have seen a tremendous investment in observational facilities that promise to reveal new and unprecedented discoveries about the universe. In comparison, the investment in theoretical work is completely dwarfed, even though theory plays a crucial role in the interpretation of these observations, predicting new types of phenomena, and informing observing strategies. In this white paper, we argue that in order to reach the promised critical breakthroughs in astrophysics over the next decade and well beyond, the national agencies must take a serious approach to investment in theoretical astrophysics research. We discuss the role of theory in shaping our understanding of the universe, and then we provide a multi-level strategy, from the grassroots to the national, to address the current underinvestment in theory relative to observational work.

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