arXiv subjects

Coralie Fritsch

Publications and source records attributed to Coralie Fritsch.

13 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Stochastic branching models for the telomeres dynamics in a model including telomerase activity

Telomeres are repetitive sequences of nucleotides at the end of chromosomes, whose evolution over time is intrinsically related to biological ageing. In most cells, with each cell division, telomeres shorten due to the so-called end replication problem, which can lead to replicative senescence and a variety of age-related diseases. On the other hand, in certain cells, the presence of the enzyme telomerase can lead to the lengthening of telomeres, which may delay or prevent the onset of such diseases but can also increase the risk of cancer. In this article, we propose a stochastic representation of this biological model, which takes into account multiple chromosomes per cell, the effect of telomerase, different cell types and the dependence of the distribution of telomere length on the dynamics of the process. We study theoretical properties of this model, including its long-term behaviour. In addition, we investigate numerically the impact of the model parameters on biologically relevant quantities, such as the Hayflick limit and the Malthusian parameter of the population of cells.

q-bio.CB↗

arXiv2025

An individual-based stochastic model reveals strong constraints on allometric relationships with minimal metabolic and ecological assumptions

We design a stochastic individual-based model structured in energy, for single species consuming an external resource, where populations are characterized by a typical energy at birth in $\mathbb{R}^{*}_{+}$. The resource is maintained at a fixed amount, so we benefit from a branching property at the population level. Thus, we focus on individual trajectories, constructed as Piecewise Deterministic Markov Processes, with random jumps modelling births and deaths in the population; and a continuous and deterministic evolution of energy between jumps. We are mainly interested in the case where metabolic (i.e. energy loss for maintenance), growth, birth and death rates depend on the individual energy over time, and follow allometric scalings (i.e. power laws). Our goal is to determine in a bottom-up approach what are the possible allometric coefficients (i.e. exponents of these power laws) under elementary -- and ecologically relevant -- constraints, for our model to be valid for the whole spectrum of possible body sizes. We show in particular that assuming an allometric coefficient $α$ related to metabolism strongly constrains the range of possible values for the allometric coefficients $β$, $δ$, $γ$, respectively related to birth, death and growth rates. We further identify and discuss the precise and minimal ecological mechanisms that are involved in these strong constraints on allometric scalings.

math.PR↗

arXiv2024

Mechanistic-statistical model for the expansion of ash dieback

Hymenoscyphus fraxineus is an invasive forest fungal pathogen that induces severe dieback in European ash populations. The spread of the disease has been closely monitored in France by the forest health survey system. We have developed a mechanisticstatistical model that describes the spread of the disease. It takes into account climate (summer temperature and spring rainfall), pathogen population dynamics (foliar infection, Allee effect induced by limited sexual partner encounters) and host density. We fitted this model using available disease reports. We estimated the parameters of our model, first identifying the appropriate ranges for the parameters, which led to a model reduction, and then using an adaptive multiple importance sampling algorithm for fitting. The model reproduces well the propagation observed in France over the last 20 years. In particular, it predicts the absence of disease impact in the south-east of the country and its weak development in the Garonne valley in south-west France. Summer temperature is the factor with the highest overall effect on disease spread, and explains the limited impact in southern France. Among the different temperature indices tested, the number of summer days with temperatures above 28{\textdegree}C gave the best qualitative behavior and the best fit. In contrast, the Allee effect and the heterogeneity of spring precipitation did not strongly affect the overall expansion of H. fraxineus in France and could be neglected in the modeling process. The model can be used to infer the average annual dispersal of H. fraxineus in France.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2024

Quasi-limiting behaviour of the sub-critical Multitype Bisexual Galton-Watson Branching Process

We investigate the quasi-limiting behaviour of bisexual subcritical Galton-Watson branching processes. While classical subcritical Galton-Watson processes have been extensively analyzed, bisexual Galton-Watson branching processes present unique difficulties because of the lack of the branching property. To prove the existence of and convergence to one or several quasi-stationary distributions, we leverage on recent developments linking bisexual Galton-Watson branching processes extinction to the eigenvalue of a concave operator.

math.PR↗

arXiv2022

The Multi-type Bisexual Galton-Watson Branching Process

In this work we study the bisexual Galton-Watson process with a finite number of types, where females and males mate according to a ''mating function'' and form couples of different types. We assume that this function is superadditive, which in simple words implies that two groups of females and males will form a larger number of couples together rather than separate. In the absence of a linear reproduction operator which is the key to understand the behaviour of the model in the asexual case, we build a concave reproduction operator and use a concave Perron-Frobenius theory to ensure the existence of eigenelements. Using this tool, we find a necessary and sufficient condition for almost sure extinction as well as a law of large numbers. Finally, we study the almost sure long-time convergence of the rescaled process through the identification of a supermartingale, and we give sufficient conditions to ensure a convergence in $L^1$ to a non-degenerate limit.

math.PR↗

arXiv2022

Quasi-stationary behavior for an hybrid model of chemostat: the Crump-Young model

The Crump-Young model consists of two fully coupled stochastic processes modeling the substrate and microorganisms dynamics in a chemostat. Substrate evolves following an ordinary differential equation whose coefficients depend of microorganisms number. Microorganisms are modeled though a pure jump process whose the jump rates depend on the substrate concentration. It goes to extinction almost-surely in the sense that microorganism population vanishes. In this work, we show that, conditionally on the non-extinction, its distribution converges exponentially fast to a quasi-stationary distribution. Due to the deterministic part, the dynamics of the Crump-Young model is highly degenerated. The proof is then original and consists of technical sharp estimates and new approaches for the quasi-stationary convergence.

math.PR↗

arXiv2021

Identifying conversion efficiency as a key mechanism underlying food webs evolution : a step forward, or backward ?

Body size or mass is one of the main factors underlying food webs structure. A large number of evolutionary models have shown that indeed, the adaptive evolution of body size (or mass) can give rise to hierarchically organised trophic levels with complex between and within trophic interactions. However, these models generally make strong arbitrary assumptions on how traits evolve, casting doubts on their robustness. In particular, biomass conversion efficiency is always considered independent of the predator and prey size, which contradicts with the literature. In this paper, we propose a general model encompassing most previous models which allows to show that relaxing arbitrary assumptions gives rise to unrealistic food webs. We then show that considering biomass conversion efficiency dependent on species size is certainly key for food webs adaptive evolution because realistic food webs can evolve, making obsolete the need of arbitrary constraints on traits' evolution. We finally conclude that, on the one hand, ecologists should pay attention to how biomass flows into food webs in models. On the other hand, we question more generally the robustness of evolutionary models for the study of food webs.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2017

A numerical approach to determine mutant invasion fitness and evolutionary singular strategies

We propose a numerical approach to study the invasion fitness of a mutant and to determine evolutionary singular strategies in evolutionary structured models in which the competitive exclusion principle holds. Our approach is based on a dual representation, which consists of the modelling of the small size mutant population by a stochastic model and the computation of its corresponding deterministic model. The use of the deterministic model greatly facilitates the numerical determination of the feasibility of invasion as well as the convergence-stability of the evolutionary singular strategy. Our approach combines standard adaptive dynamics with the link between the mutant survival criterion in the stochastic model and the sign of the eigenvalue in the corresponding deterministic model. We present our method in the context of a mass-structured individual-based chemostat model. We exploit a previously derived mathematical relationship between stochastic and deterministic representations of the mutant population in the chemostat model to derive a general numerical method for analyzing the invasion fitness in the stochastic models. Our method can be applied to the broad class of evolutionary models for which a link between the stochastic and deterministic invasion fitnesses can be established.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2017

On the variations of the principal eigenvalue with respect to a parameter in growth-fragmentation models

We study the variations of the principal eigenvalue associated to a growth-fragmentation-death equation with respect to a parameter acting on growth and fragmentation. To this aim, we use the probabilistic individual-based interpretation of the model. We study the variations of the survival probability of the stochastic model, using a generation by generation approach. Then, making use of the link between the survival probability and the principal eigenvalue established in a previous work, we deduce the variations of the eigenvalue with respect to the parameter of the model.

math.AP↗

arXiv2017

Gaussian approximations for chemostat models in finite and infinite dimensions

In a chemostat, bacteria live in a growth container of constant volume in which liquid is injected continuously. Recently, Campillo and Fritsch introduced a mass-structured individual-based model to represent this dynamics and proved its convergence to a more classic partial differential equation. In this work, we are interested in the convergence of the fluctuation process. We consider this process in some Sobolev spaces and use central limit theorems on Hilbert space to prove its convergence in law to an infinite-dimensional Gaussian process.As a consequence, we obtain a two-dimensional Gaussian approximation of the Crump-Young model for which the long time behavior is relatively misunderstood. For this approximation, we derive the invariant distribution and the convergence to it. We also present numerical simulations illustrating our results.

math.PR↗

arXiv2015

Links between deterministic and stochastic approaches for invasion in growth-fragmentation-death models

We present two approaches to study invasion in growth-fragmentation-death mod- els. The first one is based on a stochastic individual based model, which is a piecewise deterministic branching process with a continuum of types, and the second one is based on an integro-differential model. The invasion of the population is described by the survival probability for the former model and by an eigenproblem for the latter one. We study these two notions of invasion fitness, giving different characterizations of the growth of the population, and we make links between these two complementary points of view. In particular we prove that the two approaches lead to the same crite- rion of possible invasion. Based on Krein-Rutman theory, we also give a proof of the existence of a solution to the eigenproblem, which satisfies the conditions needed for our study of the stochastic model, hence providing a set of assumptions under which both approaches can be carried out. Finally, we motivate our work in the context of adaptive dynamics in a chemostat model.

math.PR↗

arXiv2014

A modeling approach of the chemostat

Population dynamics and in particular microbial population dynamics, though they are complex but also intrinsically discrete and random, are conventionally represented as deterministic differential equations systems. We propose to revisit this approach by complementing these classic formalisms by stochastic formalisms and to explain the links between these representations in terms of mathematical analysis but also in terms of modeling and numerical simulations. We illustrate this approach on the model of chemostat.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2013

A mass-structured individual-based model of the chemostat: convergence and simulation

We propose a model of chemostat where the bacterial population is individually-based, each bacterium is explicitly represented and has a mass evolving continuously over time. The substrate concentration is represented as a conventional ordinary differential equation. These two components are coupled with the bacterial consumption. Mechanisms acting on the bacteria are explicitly described (growth, division and up-take). Bacteria interact via consumption. We set the exact Monte Carlo simulation algorithm of this model and its mathematical representation as a stochastic process. We prove the convergence of this process to the solution of an integro-differential equation when the population size tends to infinity. Finally, we propose several numerical simulations.

math.PR↗