arXiv subjects

Cornelia Pokalyuk

Publications and source records attributed to Cornelia Pokalyuk.

11 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Optimal long-run control of endemic infections: bang-bang threshold policies in a stochastic SIS model

We study long-run optimal intervention strategies for endemic infections in a stochastic susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model. The proportion of infected individuals evolves as a diffusion process with random fluctuations, while a control variable $ζ_t\in[0,\tildeζ_{max}]$ represents the intensity of public health interventions that reduce transmission for some intervention threshold $\tildeζ_{max}\in (0,1]$. The objective is to minimize the long-run average societal cost, balancing the burden of infection against the costs of interventions. Under a concave intervention cost structure the problem can be formulated as an ergodic stochastic control problem, whose structure implies (under certain additional conditions) that optimal interventions are of bang-bang type, switching between no intervention and the maximal admissible intervention at a single switching threshold in the infection level. We construct candidate value functions, rigorously verify optimality in this single-threshold case, and relate the results to extinction and persistence properties of the underlying SIS dynamics in the absence of control. In our framework, the analysis provides a rigorous justification for the threshold-based intervention rules commonly used in epidemic management.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2025

On a Neutral Host-Virus Model with Recombination

Motivated by observations in sequence data of herpesviruses, we introduce a multi-locus model for the joint evolution of different genotypes in a virus population that is distributed across a population of hosts. In the model, virus particles replicate, recombine, and mutate within their hosts at rates that act on different time scales. Furthermore, virus particles are exchanged between hosts at reinfection events and hosts are replaced by primary infected hosts when they die. We determine the asymptotic type distribution observed in a single host in the limit of large host and virus populations under asymptotic rate assumptions by tracing back the ancestry of the sample. The proposed model may serve as a null model for the evolution of virus populations that are capable of persistence and can be used to estimate the strengths of different evolutionary forces driving genetic diversity, see also [4].

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2025

Inter-city infections and the role of size heterogeneity in containment strategies

This study examines the effectiveness of regional lockdown strategies in mitigating pathogen spread across regional units, termed cities hereinafter. We develop simplified models to analyze infection spread across cities within a country during an epidemic wave. Isolation of a city is initiated when infection numbers within the city surpass defined thresholds. We compare two strategies: strategy (P) consists in prescribing thresholds proportionally to city sizes, while the same threshold is used for all cities under strategy (U). Given the heavy-tailed distribution of city sizes, strategy (P) may result in more secondary infections from larger cities than strategy (U). Random graph models are constructed to represent infection spread as a percolation process. In particular, we consider a model in which mobility between cities only depends on city sizes. We assess the relative efficiency of the two strategies by comparing the ratios of the number of individuals under isolation to the total number of infections by the end of the epidemic wave under strategy (P) and (U). Additionally, we derive analytical formulas for disease prevalence and basic reproduction numbers. Our models are calibrated using mobility data from France, Poland and Japan, validated through simulation. The findings indicate that mobility between cities in France and Poland is mainly determined by city sizes. However, a poor fit was observed with Japanese data, highlighting the importance to include other factors like e.g. geography for some countries in modeling. Our analysis suggest similar effectiveness for both strategies in France and Japan, while strategy (U) demonstrates distinct merits in Poland.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2025

A spatial host-parasite model with host immunity: Survival and linear spread of parasites on $\mathbb{Z}$

We introduce a generalized version of the frog model to describe the invasion of a parasite population in a spatially structured immobile host population with host immunity on the integer line. Parasites move according to simple symmetric random walks and try to infect any host they meet. Hosts, however, own an immunity against the parasites that protects them from infection for a random number of attacks. Once a host gets infected, it and the infecting parasite die, and a random number of offspring parasites is generated. We show that the positivity of the survival probability of parasites only depends on the mean offspring and mean height of immunity. Furthermore, we prove through the construction of a renewal structure that given survival of the parasite population parasites invade the host population at linear speed under relatively mild assumptions on the host immunity distribution.

math.PR↗

arXiv2024

On the fixation probability of an advantageous allele in a population with skewed offspring distribution

Consider an advantageous allele that arises in a haploid population of size $N$ evolving in continuous time according to a skewed reproduction mechanism, which generates under neutrality genealogies lying in the domain of attraction of a Beta$(2-α, α)$-coalescent for $α\in (1,2)$. We prove in a setting of moderate selection that the fixation probability $π_N$ of the advantageous allele is asymptotically equal to $α^{1/(α-1)} s_N^{1/(α-1)} $ , where $s_N$ is the selection strength of the advantageous allele. Our proof uses duality with a suitable $Λ$-ancestral selection graph.

math.PR↗

arXiv2023

Spatial Invasion of Cooperative Parasites

In this paper we study invasion probabilities and invasion times of cooperative parasites spreading in spatially structured host populations. The spatial structure of the host population is given by a random geometric graph on $[0,1]^n$, $n\in \mathbb{N}$, with a Poisson($N$)-distributed number of vertices and in which vertices are connected over an edge when they have a distance of at most $r_N\in Θ\left(N^{\frac{β-1}{n}}\right)$ for some $0<β<1$ and $N\rightarrow \infty$. At a host infection many parasites are generated and parasites move along edges to neighbouring hosts. We assume that parasites have to cooperate to infect hosts, in the sense that at least two parasites need to attack a host simultaneously. We find lower and upper bounds on the invasion probability of the parasites in terms of survival probabilities of branching processes with cooperation. Furthermore, we characterize the asymptotic invasion time. An important ingredient of the proofs is a comparison with infection dynamics of cooperative parasites in host populations structured according to a complete graph, i.e. in well-mixed host populations. For these infection processes we can show that invasion probabilities are asymptotically equal to survival probabilities of branching processes with cooperation. Furthermore, we build in the proofs on techniques developed in [BP22], where an analogous invasion process has been studied for host populations structured according to a configuration model. We substantiate our results with simulations.

math.PR↗

arXiv2022

Invasion of cooperative parasites in moderately structured host populations

Certain defense mechanisms of phages against the immune system of their bacterial host rely on cooperation of phages. Motivated by this example we analyse invasion probabilities of cooperative parasites in host populations that are moderately structured. More precisely we assume that hosts are arranged on the vertices of a configuration model and that offspring of parasites move to nearest neighbours sites to infect new hosts. We consider parasites that generate many offspring at reproduction, but do this (usually) only when infecting a host simultaneously. In this regime we identify and analyse the spatial scale of the population structure at which invasion of parasites turns from being an unlikely to an highly probable event.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2022

Haldane's formula in Cannings models: The case of moderately strong selection

For a class of Cannings models we prove Haldane's formula, $π(s_N) \sim \frac{2s_N}{ρ^2}$, for the fixation probability of a single beneficial mutant in the limit of large population size $N$ and in the regime of moderately strong selection, i.e. for $s_N \sim N^{-b}$ and $0< b<1/2$. Here, $s_N$ is the selective advantage of an individual carrying the beneficial type, and $ρ^2$ is the (asymptotic) offspring variance. Our assumptions on the reproduction mechanism allow for a coupling of the beneficial allele's frequency process with slightly supercritical Galton-Watson processes in the early phase of fixation.

math.PR↗

arXiv2020

Haldane's formula in Cannings models: The case of moderately weak selection

We introduce a Cannings model with directional selection via a paintbox construction and establish a strong duality with the line counting process of a new \emph{Cannings ancestral selection graph} in discrete time. This duality also yields a formula for the fixation probability of the beneficial type. Haldane's formula states that for a single selectively advantageous individual in a population of haploid individuals of size $N$ the prob\-ability of fixation is asymptotically (as $N\to \infty$) equal to the selective advantage of haploids $s_N$ divided by half of the offspring variance. For a class of offspring distributions within Kingman attraction we prove this asymptotics for sequences $s_N$ obeying $N^{-1} \ll s_N \ll N^{-1/2} $, which is a regime of "moderately weak selection". It turns out that for $ s_N \ll N^{-2/3} $ the Cannings ancestral selection graph is so close to the ancestral selection graph of a Moran model that a suitable coupling argument allows to play the problem back asymptotically to the fixation probability in the Moran model, which can be computed explicitly.

math.PR↗

arXiv2019

Maintenance of diversity in a hierarchical host-parasite model with balancing selection and reinfection

Inspired by DNA data of the human cytomegalovirus we propose a model of a two-type parasite population distributed over its hosts. The parasite is capable to persist in its host till the host dies, and to reinfect other hosts. To maintain type diversity within a host, balancing selection is assumed. For a suitable parameter regime we show that in the limit of large host and parasite populations the host state frequencies follow a dynamical system with a globally stable equilibrium, guaranteeing that both types are maintained in the parasite population for a long time on the host time scale.

math.PR↗

arXiv2016

The fixation time of a strongly beneficial allele in a structured population

For a beneficial allele which enters a large unstructured population and eventually goes to fixation, it is known that the time to fixation is approximately $2\log(α)/α$ for a large selection coefficient $α$. For a population that is distributed over finitely many colonies, with migration between these colonies, we detect various regimes of the migration rate $μ$ for which the fixation times have different asymptotics as $α\to \infty$. If $μ$ is of order $α$, the allele fixes (as in the spatially unstructured case) in time $\sim 2\log(α)/α$. If $μ$ is of order $α^γ, 0\leq γ\leq 1$, the fixation time is $\sim (2 + (1-γ)Δ) \log(α)/α$, where $Δ$ is the number of migration steps that are needed to reach all other colonies starting from the colony where the beneficial allele appeared. If $μ= 1/\log(α)$, the fixation time is $\sim (2+S)\log(α)/α$, where $S$ is a random time in a simple epidemic model. The main idea for our analysis is to combine a new moment dual for the process conditioned to fixation with the time reversal in equilibrium of a spatial version of Neuhauser and Krone's ancestral selection graph.

math.PR↗