arXiv subjects

Corrado Monti

Publications and source records attributed to Corrado Monti.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Comparing Data Assimilation and Likelihood-Based Inference on Latent State Estimation in Agent-Based Models

In this paper, we present the first systematic comparison of Data Assimilation (DA) and Likelihood-Based Inference (LBI) in the context of an Agent-Based Model (ABM). These models generate observable time series driven by evolving, partially-latent microstates. Latent states must be estimated to align simulations with real-world data, a task traditionally addressed by DA, particularly in continuous and equation-based models used in weather forecasting. However, the nature of ABMs poses challenges for standard DA methods. Solving such issues requires adapting previous DA techniques or using ad hoc alternatives such as LBI. DA approximates the likelihood in a model-agnostic way, making it broadly applicable but potentially less precise. In contrast, LBI provides more accurate state estimation by directly leveraging the model's likelihood, but at the cost of requiring a hand-crafted, model-specific likelihood function, which may be complex or infeasible to derive. We compare the two methods on the Bounded-Confidence Model, a well-known opinion dynamics ABM, where agents are affected only by others holding sufficiently similar opinions. We find that LBI better recovers latent agent-level opinions, even under model mis-specification, leading to improved individual-level forecasts. At the aggregate level, however, both methods perform comparably, and DA remains competitive across levels of aggregation under certain parameter settings. Our findings suggest that DA is well-suited for aggregate predictions, while LBI is preferable for agent-level inference.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Conditional Publics: Shared Events and Divergent Meanings in the European Twitter Debate on the Ukraine War

How do European publics debate a geopolitical crisis on social media, and do they inhabit a shared informational reality? We analyze over 38 million geolocated tweets from 20 European countries during the first eight months of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Using retweet community detection and stance annotation across six issues, we identify 'hawkish' and 'doveish' opinion clusters present within almost every country studied. We find that structural polarization is driven not by radicalization, but by the exit of casual users. Crucially, whether opposing sides orient to the same events depends on the issue. On pragmatist issues, both sides react to the same high-profile events, forming an agonistic public sphere. Instead, on interpretive issues, they operate as affective publics and counterpublics constructing divergent meanings. We propose conditional publics to describe formations whose relational structure, sharing or fracturing a referential frame, depends on the epistemic character of the debated issue.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2025

Learning Individual Behavior in Agent-Based Models with Graph Diffusion Networks

Agent-Based Models (ABMs) are powerful tools for studying emergent properties in complex systems. In ABMs, agent behaviors are governed by local interactions and stochastic rules. However, these rules are, in general, non-differentiable, limiting the use of gradient-based methods for optimization, and thus integration with real-world data. We propose a novel framework to learn a differentiable surrogate of any ABM by observing its generated data. Our method combines diffusion models to capture behavioral stochasticity and graph neural networks to model agent interactions. Distinct from prior surrogate approaches, our method introduces a fundamental shift: rather than approximating system-level outputs, it models individual agent behavior directly, preserving the decentralized, bottom-up dynamics that define ABMs. We validate our approach on two ABMs (Schelling's segregation model and a Predator-Prey ecosystem) showing that it replicates individual-level patterns and accurately forecasts emergent dynamics beyond training. Our results demonstrate the potential of combining diffusion models and graph learning for data-driven ABM simulation.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Uncovering the Sociodemographic Fabric of Reddit

Understanding the sociodemographic composition of online platforms is essential for accurately interpreting digital behavior and its societal implications. Yet, current methods often lack the transparency and reliability required, risking misrepresenting social identities and distorting our understanding of digital society. Here, we introduce a principled framework for sociodemographic inference on Reddit that leverages over 850,000 user self-declarations of age, gender, and partisan affiliation. By training models on sparse user activity signals from this extensive, self-disclosed dataset, we demonstrate that simple probabilistic models, such as Naive Bayes, outperform more complex embedding-based alternatives. Our approach improves classification performance over the state of the art by up to 19% in ROC AUC and maintains quantification error below 15%. The models produce well-calibrated and interpretable outputs, enabling uncertainty estimation and subreddit-level feature importance analysis. More broadly, this work advocates for a shift toward more ethical and transparent computational social science by grounding sociodemographic analysis in user-provided data rather than researcher assumptions.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2025

Bias and Identifiability in the Bounded Confidence Model

Opinion dynamics models such as the bounded confidence models (BCMs) describe how a population can reach consensus, fragmentation, or polarization, depending on a few parameters. Connecting such models to real-world data could help understanding such phenomena, testing model assumptions. To this end, estimation of model parameters is a key aspect, and maximum likelihood estimation provides a principled way to tackle it. Here, our goal is to outline the properties of statistical estimators of the two key BCM parameters: the confidence bound and the convergence rate. We find that their maximum likelihood estimators present different characteristics: the one for the confidence bound presents a small-sample bias but is consistent, while the estimator of the convergence rate shows a persistent bias. Moreover, the joint parameter estimation is affected by identifiability issues for specific regions of the parameter space, as several local maxima are present in the likelihood function. Our results show how the analysis of the likelihood function is a fruitful approach for better understanding the pitfalls and possibilities of estimating the parameters of opinion dynamics models, and more in general, agent-based models, and for offering formal guarantees for their calibration.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

Narratives of War: Ukrainian Memetic Warfare on Twitter

The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine has seen an intensification in the use of social media by governmental actors in cyber warfare. Wartime communication via memes has been a successful strategy used not only by independent accounts such as @uamemesforces, but also-for the first time in a full-scale interstate war-by official Ukrainian government accounts such as @Ukraine and @DefenceU. We study this prominent example of memetic warfare through the lens of its narratives, and find them to be a key component of success: tweets with a 'victim' narrative garner twice as many retweets. However, malevolent narratives focusing on the enemy resonate more than those about heroism or victims with countries providing more assistance to Ukraine. Our findings present a nuanced examination of Ukraine's influence operations and of the worldwide response to it, thus contributing new insights into the evolution of socio-technical systems in times of war.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2024

Causal Modeling of Climate Activism on Reddit

Climate activism is crucial in stimulating collective societal and behavioral change towards sustainable practices through political pressure. Although multiple factors contribute to the participation in activism, their complex relationships and the scarcity of data on their interactions have restricted most prior research to studying them in isolation, thus preventing the development of a quantitative, causal understanding of why people approach activism. In this work, we develop a comprehensive causal model of how and why Reddit users engage with activist communities driving mass climate protests (mainly the 2019 Earth Strike, Fridays for Future, and Extinction Rebellion). Our framework, based on Stochastic Variational Inference applied to Bayesian Networks, learns the causal pathways over multiple time periods. Distinct from previous studies, our approach uses large-scale and fine-grained longitudinal data (2016 to 2022) to jointly model the roles of sociodemographic makeup, experience of extreme weather events, exposure to climate-related news, and social influence through online interactions. We find that among users interested in climate change, participation in online activist communities is indeed influenced by direct interactions with activists and largely by recent exposure to media coverage of climate protests. Among people aware of climate change, left-leaning people from lower socioeconomic backgrounds are particularly represented in online activist groups. Our findings offer empirical validation for theories of media influence and critical mass, and lay the foundations to inform interventions and future studies to foster public participation in collective action.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2024

Integrated or Segregated? User Behavior Change after Cross-Party Interactions on Reddit

It has been a widely shared concern that social media reinforces echo chambers of like-minded users and exacerbate political polarization. While fostering interactions across party lines is recognized as an important strategy to break echo chambers, there is a lack of empirical evidence on whether users will actually become more integrated or instead more segregated following such interactions on real social media platforms. We fill this gap by inspecting how users change their community engagement after receiving a cross-party reply in the U.S. politics discussion on Reddit. More specifically, we investigate if they increase their activity in communities of the opposing party, or in communities of their own party. We find that receiving a cross-party reply to a comment in a non-partisan discussion space is not significantly associated with increased out-party subreddit activity, unless the comment itself is already a reply to another comment. Meanwhile, receiving a cross-party reply is significantly associated with increased in-party subreddit activity, but the effect is comparable to that of receiving a same-party reply. Our results reveal a highly conditional depolarization effect following cross-party interactions in spurring activity in out-party communities, which is likely part of a more general dynamic of feedback-boosted engagement.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2023

Likelihood-Based Methods Improve Parameter Estimation in Opinion Dynamics Models

We show that a maximum likelihood approach for parameter estimation in agent-based models (ABMs) of opinion dynamics outperforms the typical simulation-based approach. Simulation-based approaches simulate the model repeatedly in search of a set of parameters that generates data similar enough to the observed one. In contrast, likelihood-based approaches derive a likelihood function that connects the unknown parameters to the observed data in a statistically principled way. We compare these two approaches on the well-known bounded-confidence model of opinion dynamics. We do so on three realistic scenarios of increasing complexity depending on data availability: (i) fully observed opinions and interactions, (ii) partially observed interactions, (iii) observed interactions with noisy proxies of the opinions. We highlight how identifying observed and latent variables is fundamental for connecting the model to the data. To realize the likelihood-based approach, we first cast the model into a probabilistic generative guise that supports a proper data likelihood. Then, we describe the three scenarios via probabilistic graphical models and show the nuances that go into translating the model. Finally, we implement the resulting probabilistic models in an automatic differentiation framework (PyTorch). This step enables easy and efficient maximum likelihood estimation via gradient descent. Our experimental results show that the maximum likelihood estimates are up to 4x more accurate and require up to 200x less computational time.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2023

Evidence of Demographic rather than Ideological Segregation in News Discussion on Reddit

We evaluate homophily and heterophily among ideological and demographic groups in a typical opinion formation context: online discussions of current news. We analyze user interactions across five years in the r/news community on Reddit, one of the most visited websites in the United States. Then, we estimate demographic and ideological attributes of these users. Thanks to a comparison with a carefully-crafted network null model, we establish which pairs of attributes foster interactions and which ones inhibit them. Individuals prefer to engage with the opposite ideological side, which contradicts the echo chamber narrative. Instead, demographic groups are homophilic, as individuals tend to interact within their own group - even in an online setting where such attributes are not directly observable. In particular, we observe age and income segregation consistently across years: users tend to avoid interactions when belonging to different groups. These results persist after controlling for the degree of interest by each demographic group in different news topics. Our findings align with the theory that affective polarization - the difficulty in socializing across political boundaries-is more connected with an increasingly divided society, rather than ideological echo chambers on social media. We publicly release our anonymized data set and all the code to reproduce our results: https://github.com/corradomonti/demographic-homophily

cs.CY↗

arXiv2023

Online conspiracy communities are more resilient to deplatforming

Online social media foster the creation of active communities around shared narratives. Such communities may turn into incubators for conspiracy theories -- some spreading violent messages that could sharpen the debate and potentially harm society. To face these phenomena, most social media platforms implemented moderation policies, ranging from posting warning labels up to deplatforming, i.e., permanently banning users. Assessing the effectiveness of content moderation is crucial for balancing societal safety while preserving the right to free speech. In this paper, we compare the shift in behavior of users affected by the ban of two large communities on Reddit, GreatAwakening and FatPeopleHate, which were dedicated to spreading the QAnon conspiracy and body-shaming individuals, respectively. Following the ban, both communities partially migrated to Voat, an unmoderated Reddit clone. We estimate how many users migrate, finding that users in the conspiracy community are much more likely to leave Reddit altogether and join Voat. Then, we quantify the behavioral shift within Reddit and across Reddit and Voat by matching common users. Few migrating zealots drive the growth of the new GreatAwakening community on Voat, while this effect is absent for FatPeopleHate. Finally, conspiracy users migrating from Reddit tend to recreate their previous social network on Voat. Our findings suggest that banning conspiracy communities hosting violent content should be carefully designed, as these communities may be more resilient to deplatforming.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2023

The Thin Ideology of Populist Advertising on Facebook during the 2019 EU Elections

Social media has been an important tool in the expansion of the populist message, and it is thought to have contributed to the electoral success of populist parties in the past decade. This study compares how populist parties advertised on Facebook during the 2019 European Parliamentary election. In particular, we examine commonalities and differences in which audiences they reach and on which issues they focus. By using data from Meta (previously Facebook) Ad Library, we analyze 45k ad campaigns by 39 parties, both populist and mainstream, in Germany, United Kingdom, Italy, Spain, and Poland. While populist parties represent just over 20% of the total expenditure on political ads, they account for 40% of the total impressions$\unicode{x2013}$most of which from Eurosceptic and far-right parties$\unicode{x2013}$thus hinting at a competitive advantage for populist parties on Facebook. We further find that ads posted by populist parties are more likely to reach male audiences, and sometimes much older ones. In terms of issues, populist politicians focus on monetary policy, state bureaucracy and reforms, and security, while the focus on EU and Brexit is on par with non-populist, mainstream parties. However, issue preferences are largely country-specific, thus supporting the view in political science that populism is a "thin ideology", that does not have a universal, coherent policy agenda. This study illustrates the usefulness of publicly available advertising data for monitoring the populist outreach to, and engagement with, millions of potential voters, while outlining the limitations of currently available data.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2022

On learning agent-based models from data

Agent-Based Models (ABMs) are used in several fields to study the evolution of complex systems from micro-level assumptions. However, ABMs typically can not estimate agent-specific (or "micro") variables: this is a major limitation which prevents ABMs from harnessing micro-level data availability and which greatly limits their predictive power. In this paper, we propose a protocol to learn the latent micro-variables of an ABM from data. The first step of our protocol is to reduce an ABM to a probabilistic model, characterized by a computationally tractable likelihood. This reduction follows two general design principles: balance of stochasticity and data availability, and replacement of unobservable discrete choices with differentiable approximations. Then, our protocol proceeds by maximizing the likelihood of the latent variables via a gradient-based expectation maximization algorithm. We demonstrate our protocol by applying it to an ABM of the housing market, in which agents with different incomes bid higher prices to live in high-income neighborhoods. We demonstrate that the obtained model allows accurate estimates of the latent variables, while preserving the general behavior of the ABM. We also show that our estimates can be used for out-of-sample forecasting. Our protocol can be seen as an alternative to black-box data assimilation methods, that forces the modeler to lay bare the assumptions of the model, to think about the inferential process, and to spot potential identification problems.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2022

The language of opinion change on social media under the lens of communicative action

Which messages are more effective at inducing a change of opinion in the listener? We approach this question within the frame of Habermas' theory of communicative action, which posits that the illocutionary intent of the message (its pragmatic meaning) is the key. Thanks to recent advances in natural language processing, we are able to operationalize this theory by extracting the latent social dimensions of a message, namely archetypes of social intent of language, that come from social exchange theory. We identify key ingredients to opinion change by looking at more than 46k posts and more than 3.5M comments on Reddit's r/ChangeMyView, a debate forum where people try to change each other's opinion and explicitly mark opinion-changing comments with a special flag called "delta". Comments that express no intent are about 77% less likely to change the mind of the recipient, compared to comments that convey at least one social dimension. Among the various social dimensions, the ones that are most likely to produce an opinion change are knowledge, similarity, and trust, which resonates with Habermas' theory of communicative action. We also find other new important dimensions, such as appeals to power or empathetic expressions of support. Finally, in line with theories of constructive conflict, yet contrary to the popular characterization of conflict as the bane of modern social media, our findings show that voicing conflict in the context of a structured public debate can promote integration, especially when it is used to counter another conflictive stance. By leveraging recent advances in natural language processing, our work provides an empirical framework for Habermas' theory, finds concrete examples of its effects in the wild, and suggests its possible extension with a more faceted understanding of intent interpreted as social dimensions of language.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2022

Cascade-based Echo Chamber Detection

Despite echo chambers in social media have been under considerable scrutiny, general models for their detection and analysis are missing. In this work, we aim to fill this gap by proposing a probabilistic generative model that explains social media footprints -- i.e., social network structure and propagations of information -- through a set of latent communities, characterized by a degree of echo-chamber behavior and by an opinion polarity. Specifically, echo chambers are modeled as communities that are permeable to pieces of information with similar ideological polarity, and impermeable to information of opposed leaning: this allows discriminating echo chambers from communities that lack a clear ideological alignment. To learn the model parameters we propose a scalable, stochastic adaptation of the Generalized Expectation Maximization algorithm, that optimizes the joint likelihood of observing social connections and information propagation. Experiments on synthetic data show that our algorithm is able to correctly reconstruct ground-truth latent communities with their degree of echo-chamber behavior and opinion polarity. Experiments on real-world data about polarized social and political debates, such as the Brexit referendum or the COVID-19 vaccine campaign, confirm the effectiveness of our proposal in detecting echo chambers. Finally, we show how our model can improve accuracy in auxiliary predictive tasks, such as stance detection and prediction of future propagations.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2022

On the Relation Between Opinion Change and Information Consumption on Reddit

While much attention has been devoted to the causes of opinion change, little is known about its consequences. Our study sheds a light on the relationship between one user's opinion change episode and subsequent behavioral change on an online social media, Reddit. In particular, we look at r/ChangeMyView, an online community dedicated to debating one's own opinions. Interestingly, this forum adopts a well-codified schema for explicitly self-reporting opinion change. Starting from this ground truth, we analyze changes in future online information consumption behavior that arise after a self-reported opinion change on sociopolitical topics; and in particular, operationalized in this work as the participation to sociopolitical subreddits. Such participation profile is important as it represents one's information diet, and is a reliable proxy for, e.g., political affiliation or health choices. We find that people who report an opinion change are significantly more likely to change their future participation in a specific subset of online communities. We characterize which communities are more likely to be abandoned after opinion change, and find a significant association (r=0.46) between propaganda-like language used in a community and the increase in chances of leaving it. We find comparable results (r=0.39) for the opposite direction, i.e., joining a community. This finding suggests how propagandistic communities act as a first gateway to internalize a shift in one's sociopolitical opinion. Finally, we show that the textual content of the discussion associated with opinion change is indicative of which communities are going to be subject to a participation change. In fact, a predictive model based only on the opinion change post is able to pinpoint these communities with an AP@5 of 0.20, similar to what can be reached by using all the past history of participation in communities.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2021

The Effect of People Recommenders on Echo Chambers and Polarization

The effects of social media on critical issues, such as polarization and misinformation, are under scrutiny due to the disruptive consequences that these phenomena can have on our societies. Among the algorithms routinely used by social media platforms, people-recommender systems are of special interest, as they directly contribute to the evolution of the social network structure, affecting the information and the opinions users are exposed to. In this paper, we propose a framework to assess the effect of people recommenders on the evolution of opinions. Our proposal is based on Monte Carlo simulations combining link recommendation and opinion-dynamics models. In order to control initial conditions, we define a random network model to generate graphs with opinions, with tunable amounts of modularity and homophily. We join these elements into a methodology to study the effects of the recommender system on echo chambers and polarization. We also show how to use our framework to measure, by means of simulations, the impact of different intervention strategies. Our thorough experimentation shows that people recommenders can in fact lead to a significant increase in echo chambers. However, this happens only if there is considerable initial homophily in the network. Also, we find that if the network already contains echo chambers, the effect of the recommendation algorithm is negligible. Such findings are robust to two very different opinion dynamics models, a bounded confidence model and an epistemological model.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2021

Learning Ideological Embeddings from Information Cascades

Modeling information cascades in a social network through the lenses of the ideological leaning of its users can help understanding phenomena such as misinformation propagation and confirmation bias, and devising techniques for mitigating their toxic effects. In this paper we propose a stochastic model to learn the ideological leaning of each user in a multidimensional ideological space, by analyzing the way politically salient content propagates. In particular, our model assumes that information propagates from one user to another if both users are interested in the topic and ideologically aligned with each other. To infer the parameters of our model, we devise a gradient-based optimization procedure maximizing the likelihood of an observed set of information cascades. Our experiments on real-world political discussions on Twitter and Reddit confirm that our model is able to learn the political stance of the social media users in a multidimensional ideological space.

cs.SI↗