arXiv subjects

Costantino Pacilio

Publications and source records attributed to Costantino Pacilio.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Black hole spectroscopy: from theory to experiment

The "ringdown" radiation emitted by oscillating black holes has great scientific potential. By carefully predicting the frequencies and amplitudes of black hole quasinormal modes and comparing them with gravitational-wave data from compact binary mergers we can advance our understanding of the two-body problem in general relativity, verify the predictions of the theory in the regime of strong and dynamical gravitational fields, and search for physics beyond the Standard Model or new gravitational degrees of freedom. We summarize the state of the art in our understanding of black hole quasinormal modes in general relativity and modified gravity, their excitation, and the modeling of ringdown waveforms. We also review the status of LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA ringdown observations, data analysis techniques, and the bright prospects of the field in the era of LISA and next-generation ground-based gravitational-wave detectors.

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arXiv2026

Black-hole ringdown with templates capturing spin precession: A reanalysis of GW190521

The ringdown stage of a binary black-hole merger provides a clean probe of strong-field gravity, as it can be modeled with minimal assumptions. The quasi-normal-mode frequencies encode the mass and spin of the Kerr black hole remnant, while the mode excitation depends on the progenitor binary. In this paper, we implement a recently developed amplitude model that captures spin precession in a simulation-based inference pipeline that specifically targets ringdown signals. We present a reanalysis of GW190521-a short-duration, merger-dominated event with conflicting interpretations. Spin-aligned and precessing analyses at two ringdown start times show that precession induces modest but systematic shifts in inferred parameters and subdominant mode amplitudes, although such ringdown-only analyses provide no strong evidence for precession. Our results demonstrate the feasibility of physics-informed precessing ringdown modeling, paving the way for the identification of spin precession in gravitational-wave events using solely their ringdown stages, where waveform systematics are expected to be substantially less prominent.

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arXiv2026

Impact of facility timing and coordination for next-generation gravitational-wave detectors

While the Einstein Telescope and Cosmic Explorer proposals for next-generation, ground-based detectors promise vastly improved sensitivities to gravitational-wave signals, only joint observations are expected to enable the full scientific potential of these facilities, making timing and coordination between the efforts crucial to avoid missed opportunities. This study investigates the impact of long-term delays on the scientific capabilities of next-generation detector networks. We use the Fisher information formalism to simulate the performance of a set of detector networks for large, fiducial populations of binary black holes, binary neutron stars, and primordial black-hole binaries. Bootstrapping the simulated populations, we map the expected observation times required to reach a number of observations fulfilling scientific targets for key sensitivity and localization metrics across various network configurations. We also investigate the sensitivity to stochastic backgrounds. We find that purely sensitivity-driven metrics such as the signal-to-noise ratio are not strongly affected by delays between facilities. This is contrasted by the localization metrics, which are very sensitive to the number of detectors in the network and, by extension, to delayed observation campaigns for a detector. Effectively, delays in one detector behave like network-wide interruptions for the localization metrics for networks consisting of two next-generation facilities. We examine the impact of a supporting, current-generation detector such as LIGO India operating concurrently with next-generation facilities and find such an addition will greatly mitigate the negative effects of delays for localization metrics, with important consequences on multi-messenger science and stochastic searches.

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arXiv2025

Ringdown mode amplitudes of precessing binary black holes

The ringdown phase of a binary black-hole merger encodes key information about the remnant properties and provides a direct probe of the strong-field regime of General Relativity. While quasi-normal mode frequencies and damping times are well understood within black-hole perturbation theory, their excitation amplitudes remain challenging to model, as they depend on the merger phase. The complexity increases for precessing black-hole binaries, where multiple emission modes can contribute comparably to the ringdown. In this paper, we investigate the phenomenology of precessing binary black hole ringdowns using the SXS numerical relativity simulations catalog. Precession significantly impacts the ringdown excitation amplitudes and the related mode hierarchy. Using Gaussian process regression, we construct the first fits for the ringdown amplitudes of the most relevant modes in precessing systems.

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arXiv2025

Taming systematics in distance and inclination measurements with gravitational waves: role of the detector network and higher-order modes

Gravitational-wave (GW) observations of compact binaries have the potential to unlock several remarkable applications in astrophysics, cosmology, and nuclear physics through accurate measurements of the source luminosity distance and inclination. However, these parameters are strongly correlated when performing parameter estimation, which may hamper the enormous potential of GW astronomy. We comprehensively explore this problem by performing Bayesian inference on synthetic data for a network of current and planned second-generation GW detectors, and for the third-generation interferometer Einstein Telescope~(ET). We quantify the role of the network alignment factor, detector sensitivity, and waveform higher-order modes in breaking this degeneracy. We discuss the crucial role of the binary mass ratio: in particular, we find that ET can efficiently remove the error in the distance as long as the compact binary is asymmetric in mass.

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arXiv2025

Which is which? Identification of the two compact objects in gravitational-wave binaries

Compact objects observed in gravitational-wave astronomy so far always come in pairs and never individually. Identifying the two components of a binary system is a delicate operation that is often taken for granted. The labeling procedure (i.e., which is object "1" and which is object "2") effectively acts as systematics, or, equivalently an unspecified prior, in gravitational-wave data inference. The common approach is to label the objects solely by their masses, on a sample-by-sample basis. We show that object identification can instead be tackled using the posterior distribution as a whole. We frame the problem in terms of constrained clustering -- a flavor of semi-supervised machine learning -- and find that unfolding the labeling systematics can significantly impact, and arguably improve, our interpretation of the data. In particular, the precision of black-hole spin measurements improves by up to 50%, multimodalities and tails tend to disappear, posteriors become closer to Gaussian distributions, and the identification of the nature of the object (i.e. black hole vs. neutron star) is facilitated. We estimate that about 10% of the LIGO/Virgo posterior samples are affected by this relabeling, i.e. they might have been attributed to the other compact object in the observed binaries.

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arXiv2025

Functional inference on deviations from General Relativity

Extensions of general relativity often predict modifications to gravitational waveform morphology that depend functionally on source parameters, such as the masses and spins of coalescing black holes. However, current analyses of strong-field gravity lack robust, data-driven methods to infer such functional dependencies. In this work, we introduce GRANITA, a non-perturbative, theory-agnostic framework to characterize parameter-dependent deviations from general relativity using Gaussian process regression. Leveraging the flexibility of this method, we analyze both simulated data and real events from the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA public catalog. We demonstrate the ability of our approach to detect and quantify waveform deviations across the parameter space. Furthermore, we show that the method can identify stochastic (non-deterministic) deviations, potentially arising from environmental effects or subdominant unmodeled physics. As gravitational-wave tests of strong gravity advance in precision, our framework provides a principled approach to constrain modified gravity and to mitigate contamination from astrophysical or instrumental systematics.

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arXiv2025

Forecasting the population properties of merging black holes

Third-generation gravitational-wave detectors will observe up to millions of merging binary black holes. With such a vast dataset, stacking events into population analyses will arguably be more important than analyzing single sources. We present the first application of population-level Fisher-matrix forecasts tailored to third-generation gravitational-wave interferometers. We implement the formalism first derived by Gair et al. and explore how future experiments such as Einstein Telescope and Cosmic Explorer will constrain the distributions of black-hole masses, spins, and redshift. Third-generation detectors will be transformative, improving constraints on the population hyperparameters by several orders of magnitude compared to current data. At the same time, we highlight that a single third-generation observatory and a network of detectors will deliver qualitatively similar performances. Obtaining precise measurements of some population features (e.g. peaks in the mass spectrum) will require only a few months of observations while others (e.g. the fraction of binaries with aligned spins) will instead require years if not decades. We argue population forecasts of this kind should be featured in white papers and feasibility studies aimed at developing the science case of future gravitational-wave interferometers.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2024

Simulation-based inference of black hole ringdowns in the time domain

Gravitational waves emitted by a ringing black hole allow us to perform precision tests of general relativity in the strong field regime. With improvements to our current gravitational wave detectors and upcoming next-generation detectors, developing likelihood-free parameter inference infrastructure is critical as we will face complications like nonstandard noise properties, partial data and incomplete signal modeling that may not allow for an analytically tractable likelihood function. In this work, we present a proof-of-concept strategy to perform likelihood-free Bayesian inference on ringdown gravitational waves using simulation based inference. Specifically, our method is based on truncated sequential neural posterior estimation, which trains a neural density estimator of the posterior for a specific observed data segment. We setup the ringdown parameter estimation directly in the time domain. We show that the parameter estimation results obtained using our trained networks are in agreement with well-established Markov-chain methods for simulated injections as well as analysis on real detector data corresponding to GW150914. Additionally, to assess our approach's internal consistency, we show that the density estimators pass a Bayesian coverage test.

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arXiv2024

Flexible mapping of ringdown amplitudes for nonprecessing binary black holes

The remnant black hole from a binary coalescence emits ringdown gravitational waves characterized by quasinormal modes, which depend solely on the remnant's mass and spin. In contrast, the ringdown amplitudes and phases are determined by the properties of the merging progenitors. Accurately modeling these amplitudes and phases reduces systematic biases in parameter estimation and enables the development and performance of rigorous tests of general relativity. We present a state-of-the-art, data-driven surrogate model for ringdown amplitudes and phases, leveraging Gaussian process regression trained against SXS numerical-relativity simulations. Focusing on nonprecessing, quasicircular binary black holes, our model offers the most comprehensive fit that includes 16 emission modes, incorporating overtones and quadratic contributions. Our surrogate model achieves reconstruction errors that are approximately 2 orders of magnitude smaller than the typical measurement errors of current gravitational-wave interferometers. An additional benefit of our approach is its flexibility, which allows for future extensions to include features such as eccentricity and precession, broadening the scope of its applicability to more generic astrophysical scenarios. Finally, we are releasing our model in a ready-to-use package called postmerger.

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arXiv2024

Comment on "Regular evaporating black holes with stable cores"

Regular black holes are generically unstable because of the classical phenomenon that goes by the name of "mass inflation" which destabilizes the inner horizon. In a recent article, [Phys.Rev.D~107~(2023)~2,~024005], it is argued that semiclassical effects due to Hawking radiation can cure this instability, and some concerns are raised against the validity of previous analyses showing its existence in the first place. In this short comment, we explain our reservations regarding these recent claims, and reiterate the relevance of the mass inflation instability for regular black holes of astrophysical interest.

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arXiv2024

Catalog variance of testing general relativity with gravitational-wave data

Combining multiple gravitational-wave observations allows for stringent tests of general relativity, targeting effects that would otherwise be undetectable using single-event analyses. We highlight how the finite size of the observed catalog induces a significant source of variance. If not appropriately accounted for, general relativity can be excluded with arbitrarily large credibility even if it is the underlying theory of gravity. This effect is generic and holds for arbitrarily large catalogs. Moreover, we show that it cannot be suppressed by selecting "golden" observations with large signal-to-noise ratios. We present a mitigation strategy based on bootstrapping (i.e. resampling with repetition) that allows assigning uncertainties to one's credibility on the targeted test. We demonstrate our findings using both toy models and real gravitational-wave data. In particular, we quantify the impact of the catalog variance on the ringdown properties of black holes using the latest LIGO/Virgo catalog.

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arXiv2023

Landscape of stellar-mass black-hole spectroscopy with third-generation gravitational-wave detectors

Gravitational-wave black-hole spectroscopy provides a unique opportunity to test the strong-field regime of gravity and the nature of the final object formed in the aftermath of a merger. Here we investigate the prospects for black-hole spectroscopy with third-generation gravitational-wave detectors, in particular the Einstein Telescope in different configurations, possibly in combination with Cosmic Explorer. Using a state-of-the-art population model for stellar-origin binary black holes informed by LIGO Virgo-KAGRA data, we compute the average number of expected events for precision black-hole spectroscopy using a Fisher-matrix analysis. We perform our analysis on the dominant mode (2, 2, 0) and a set of subdominant modes [(3, 3, 0), (2, 1, 0), (4, 4, 0)] using amplitude and phase fits corresponding to the aligned spin configurations. We find that Einstein Telescope will measure two independent quasinormal modes within O(1)% (resp. O(10)%) relative uncertainty for at least O(1) (resp. O(500)) events per year, with similar performances in the case of a single triangular configuration or two L-shaped detectors with same arm length. A 15-km arm-length configuration would improve rates by roughly a factor of two relative to a 10-km arm-length configuration. When operating in synergy with Cosmic Explorer the rates will improve significantly, reaching few-percent accuracy for O(100) events per year.

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arXiv2023

Science with the Einstein Telescope: a comparison of different designs

The Einstein Telescope (ET), the European project for a third-generation gravitational-wave detector, has a reference configuration based on a triangular shape consisting of three nested detectors with 10 km arms, where in each arm there is a `xylophone' configuration made of an interferometer tuned toward high frequencies, and an interferometer tuned toward low frequencies and working at cryogenic temperature. Here, we examine the scientific perspectives under possible variations of this reference design. We perform a detailed evaluation of the science case for a single triangular geometry observatory, and we compare it with the results obtained for a network of two L-shaped detectors (either parallel or misaligned) located in Europe, considering different choices of arm-length for both the triangle and the 2L geometries. We also study how the science output changes in the absence of the low-frequency instrument, both for the triangle and the 2L configurations. We examine a broad class of simple `metrics' that quantify the science output, related to compact binary coalescences, multi-messenger astronomy and stochastic backgrounds, and we then examine the impact of different detector designs on a more specific set of scientific objectives.

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arXiv2023

Identifying modified theories of gravity using binary black-hole ringdowns

Black-hole spectroscopy, that is, measuring the characteristic frequencies and damping times of different modes in a black-hole ringdown, is a powerful probe for testing deviations from the general theory of relativity (GR). In this work, we present a comprehensive study on its ability to identify deviations from the spectrum of a Kerr black hole in GR. Specifically, we investigate the performance of black hole spectroscopy on a diverse set of theoretically motivated as well as phenomenologically modified spectra. We find that while the signal-to-noise ratio $ρ_{\rm RD}$ in the ringdown required to identify a modification to the GR Kerr black hole spectrum depends on the details of the modifications, a modification that introduces $\sim 1 \%$ shift in the fundamental mode frequencies can typically be distinguished with $ρ_{\rm RD} \in [150,500]$. This range of $ρ_{\rm RD}$ is feasible with the next-generation detectors, showing a promising science case for black hole spectroscopy.

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arXiv2023

Bayesian parameter estimation on boson-star binary signals with a coherent inspiral template and spin-dependent quadrupolar corrections

Compact boson star binaries are hypothetical sources for ground-based and space gravitational-wave detectors. Their signal would be a messenger for novel fundamental fields and could shed light on the dark matter. In this work, we further develop our analysis in Phys. Rev. D 102, 083002 (2020), aimed at constraining the properties of these objects with future observations. We use a coherent waveform template for the inspiral stage of boson star binaries with large quartic self interactions, including tidal deformability and the nonlinear dependence of the quadrupole moments on the spin in terms of the fundamental couplings of the scalar field theory. Performing a Bayesian analysis, we investigate the ability of a third-generation gravitational-wave detector such as the Einstein Telescope to distinguish these exotic sources from black holes and infer constraints on the fundamental couplings of the model.

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arXiv2022

Sensitivity of Neutron Star Observations to Three-nucleon Forces

Astrophysical observations of neutron stars have been widely used to infer the properties of the nuclear matter equation of state. Beside being a source of information on average properties of dense matter, however, the data provided by electromagnetic and gravitational wave (GW) facilities are reaching the accuracy needed to constrain, for the first time, nuclear dynamics in dense matter. In this work we assess the sensitivity of current and future neutron star observations to directly infer the strength of repulsive three-nucleon forces, which are key to determine the stiffness of the equation of state. Using a Bayesian approach we focus on the constraints that can be derived on three-body interactions from binary neutron star mergers observed by second and third-generation of gravitational wave interferometers. We consider both single and multiple observations. For current detectors at design sensitivity the analysis suggests that only low mass systems, with large signal-to-noise ratios (SNR), allow to reliably constrain the three-body forces. However, our results show that a single observation with a third-generation interferometer, such as the Einstein Telescope or Cosmic Explorer, will constrain the strength of the repulsive three-body potential with exquisite accuracy, turning third-generation GW detectors into new laboratories to study the nucleon dynamics.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2022

Regular black holes without mass inflation instability

Generic models of regular black holes have separate outer and inner horizons, both with nonzero surface gravity. It has been shown that a nonzero inner horizon surface gravity results in exponential instability at the inner horizon controlled by this parameter. This phenomenon takes the name of "mass inflation instability", and its presence has put in question the physical viability of regular black holes as alternatives to their (singular) general relativity counterparts. In this paper, we show that it is possible to make the inner horizon surface gravity vanish, while maintaining the separation between horizons, and a non-zero outer horizon surface gravity. We construct specific geometries satisfying these requirements, and analyze their behavior under different kinds of perturbations, showing that the exponential growth characteristic of mass inflation instability is not present for these geometries. These "inner-extremal" regular black holes are thereby better behaved than singular black holes and generic regular black holes, thus providing a well-motivated alternative of interest for fundamental and phenomenological studies.

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