arXiv subjects

Courtney Dressing

Publications and source records attributed to Courtney Dressing.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

The Orbital Eccentricity--Radius Distribution for Warm, Single Planets in TESS

We characterize the radius-dependent eccentricity distribution of 219 warm (P = 8--50 days) systems with only one transiting planetary candidate identified during Sectors 1-69 of the TESS mission. Using the ``photoeccentric effect'' in a hierarchical Bayesian framework, we first model the population using discrete planetary size bins (sub-Neptunes, sub-Saturns, and Jovians). We then develop a continuous mixture model with weights governed by a logistic sigmoid function of radius. We find that the warm-single population is best described by two components: a dominant low-eccentricity mode ( = 0.039-0.038+0.018) and a secondary dynamically excited mode ( = 0.466-0.068+0.067). The fraction of planets belonging to this high-eccentricity component increases strongly with planet radius, characterized by a transition at a break radius of R_br = 9.2-1.1+1.9 R_e. This trend places warm sub-Saturns predominantly on the same low-eccentricity track as sub-Neptunes. In contrast, warm Jovians (8--16 R_e) are frequently eccentric, with 65-12+13% of the population in the high eccentricity mode. Under the assumption of a two-component model, we see tentative evidence for a bimodal Jovian distribution at ~2.7 sigma. Finally, we identify a non-negligible tail of highly eccentric sub-Neptunes (1--4 R_e), which comprise 16.2-6.4+5.2% of the population, consistent with excitation by non-transiting external companions.

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arXiv2025

Probing the Origin of Water in Planets within Habitable Zones by HWO

How do habitable environments arise and evolve within the context of their planetary systems? This is one fundamental question, and it can be addressed partly by identifying how planets in habitable zones obtain water. Historically, astronomers considered that water was delivered to the Earth via dynamical shake-up by Jupiter, which took place during the formation and post-formation eras (e.g., $\lesssim 100$ Myr). This hypothesis has recently been challenged by a more dynamic view of planet formation; planet-forming materials move in protoplanetary disks via various physical processes such as pebble drift and planetary migration. \textit{Habitable Worlds Observatory} (HWO) will open a new window to address this important, but difficult question by discovering and characterizing Earth-like exoplanets around G-type stars. In this article, we consider two possible working hypotheses: (1) the abundance of water on planets in habitable zones has \textit{any} correlation with the presence of outer planets; and (2) the abundance of water on planets in habitable zones has \textit{no} correlation with the presence of outer planets. We discuss what physical parameters need to be measured to differentiate these two hypotheses and what observational capabilities are desired for HWO to reliably constrain these physical parameters.

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arXiv2025

Debris disks and their properties with the Habitable Worlds Observatory

The study of the last stages of planet formation, also known as debris disks, is fundamental to place constrains on the formation of planetary sized bodies. Debris disks are composed of dust and occasionally small amounts of gas, both released through dynamical interactions of small rocky bodies and dust particles, such as collisions and evaporation. The distribution of the dust can reveal the presence of forming planets and its composition can directly trace that of comets, asteroids and even planets. While we have been observing debris disks for 40 years now, most observations so far have been restricted to the cold outer regions of the system, and therefore information of the terrestrial zone is still missing. The improved spatial resolution, inner working angle and sensitivity that the Habitable Worlds Observatory will provide will enable a much closer look into the structure and composition of debris disks (particularly of its inner region) and enable the search for the forming rocky planets within the disk.

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arXiv2025

Identifying rocky planets and water worlds among sub-Neptune-sized exoplanets with the Habitable Worlds Observatory

Astronomers are debating whether the plentiful "sub-Neptune" exoplanets -- worlds a bit larger than Earth but smaller than Neptune -- are predominantly rocky planets, water-rich "ocean worlds," or gas-enshrouded mini-Neptunes. This question is crucial because such sub-Neptune-sized planets are among the most common in our galaxy, yet we have no analog in our own solar system, making them a key to understanding planet formation and diversity. It also directly impacts the search for habitable worlds: larger-than-Earth planets with solid surfaces or oceans could support life, whereas gas-rich mini-Neptunes likely cannot. However, distinguishing these types using only a planet's mass and radius is very challenging, because different compositions can produce similar densities, leaving a world's nature ambiguous with current data. The proposed Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO), a future NASA flagship telescope, offers a solution. HWO could directly image and spectroscopically analyze starlight reflected from 50~100 sub-Neptunes around nearby stars, aiming to reveal their atmospheric compositions and potential surfaces. Using visible and near-infrared spectroscopy along with sensitive polarimetry, HWO would detect atmospheric gases (such as water vapor, methane, and carbon dioxide) and search for telltale surface signatures, including rock absorption features and the characteristic reflectivity patterns of oceans. By analyzing these signals, we could determine whether sub-Neptunes are large rocky planets or water worlds rather than gas-dominated mini-Neptunes. Crucially, expanding the search beyond Earth-sized planets to include these abundant sub-Neptunes may uncover entirely new classes of potentially habitable worlds, directly advancing HWO's mission to identify and characterize planets that could support life.

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arXiv2025

A Statistical Method for Constraining the Capability of the Habitable Worlds Observatory to Understand Ozone Onset Time in Earth Analogs

The oxygenation of Earth's atmosphere 2.3 billion years ago, which on exoplanets is expected to be most detectable via the UV ozone feature at $\sim$0.25 $\mu$m, is often regarded as a sign of the emergence of photosynthetic life. On exoplanets, we may similarly expect life to oxygenate the atmosphere, but with a characteristic distribution of emergence times. In this paper, we test our ability to recover various "true" emergence time distributions as a function of 1) stellar age uncertainty and 2) number of Earth analogs in the sample. The absolute uncertainties that we recover, for diverse underlying distributions, are mostly independent of the true underlying distribution parameters, and are more dependent on sample size than stellar age uncertainty. For a sample size of 30 Earth analogs, and an HWO architecture sensitive to ozone at 1% of the current atmospheric level on Earth, we find that no ozone detections across the entire sample would place a 10$\sigma$ limit on the mean time of ozone emergence, regardless of stellar age uncertainty.

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arXiv2025

A Pair of Dynamically Interacting Sub-Neptunes Around TOI-6054

We confirm the planetary nature of a pair of transiting sub-Neptune exoplanets orbiting the bright F-type sub-giant star TOI-6054 ($V=8.02$, $K=6.673$) as a part of the OrCAS radial velocity survey using WIYN/NEID observations. We find that TOI-6054b and TOI-6054c have radii of $2.65 \pm 0.15$ $R_{\oplus}$ and $2.81 \pm 0.18$ $R_{\oplus}$, respectively, and masses of $12.4 \pm 1.7$ $M_{\oplus}$ and $9.2 \pm 2.0$ $M_{\oplus}$. The planets have zero-albedo equilibrium temperatures of $1360 \pm 33$ K and $1144 \pm 28$ K. The host star has expanded and will evolve off of the Main Sequence within the next $\sim$500 Myr, and the resulting increase in stellar luminosity has more than doubled the stellar flux the two planets receive compared to the start of the host star's main sequence phase. Consequently, TOI-6054b may be losing some of its primordial H/He atmosphere -- if it has one. Based on dynamical simulations performed using the orbital parameters of the two planets, TOI-6054b, and TOI-6054c are very likely in a 5:3 mean motion resonance. The TOI-6054 system thus has the potential to be an excellent candidate for future atmospheric follow-up observations, with two similarly sized sub-Neptunes around a bright star. We also estimate that if TOI-6054b is currently losing its H/He atmosphere this should be observable from space and from the ground.

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arXiv2025

The TESS-Keck Survey XXIV: Outer Giants may be More Prevalent in the Presence of Inner Small Planets

We present the results of the Distant Giants Survey, a three-year radial velocity (RV) campaign to search for wide-separation giant planets orbiting Sun-like stars known to host an inner transiting planet. We defined a distant giant to have $a$ = 1--10 AU and $M_{p} \sin i = 70-4000$ \mearth~ = 0.2-12.5 \mj, and required transiting planets to have $a<1$ AU and $R_{p} = 1-4$ \rearth. We assembled our sample of 47 stars using a single selection function, and observed each star at monthly intervals to obtain $\approx$30 RV observations per target. The final catalog includes a total of twelve distant companions: four giant planets detected during our survey, two previously known giant planets, and six objects of uncertain disposition identified through RV/astrometric accelerations. Statistically, half of the uncertain objects are planets and the remainder are stars/brown dwarfs. We calculated target-by-target completeness maps to account for missed planets. We found evidence for a moderate enhancement of distant giants (DG) in the presence of close-in small planets (CS), P(DG|CS) = $30^{+14}_{-12}\%$, over the field rate of P(DG) = $16^{+2}_{-2}\%$. No enhancement is disfavored ($p \sim$ 8%). In contrast to a previous study, we found no evidence that stellar metallicity enhances P(DG|CS). We found evidence that distant giant companions are preferentially found in systems with multiple transiting planets and have lower eccentricities than randomly selected giant planets. This points toward dynamically cool formation pathways for the giants that do not disturb the inner systems.

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arXiv2024

OrCAS: Origins, Compositions, and Atmospheres of Sub-neptunes. I. Survey Definition

Sub-Neptunes - volatile-rich exoplanets smaller than Neptune - are intrinsically the most common type of planet known. However, the formation and nature of these objects, as well as the distinctions between sub-classes (if any), remain unclear. Two powerful tools to tease out the secrets of these worlds are measurements of (i) atmospheric composition and structure revealed by transit and/or eclipse spectroscopy, and (ii) mass, radius, and density revealed by transit photometry and Doppler spectroscopy. Here we present OrCAS, a survey to better elucidate the origins, compositions, and atmospheres of sub-Neptunes. This radial velocity survey uses a repeatable, quantifiable metric to select targets suitable for subsequent transmission spectroscopy and address key science themes about the atmospheric & internal compositions and architectures of these systems. Our survey targets 26 systems with transiting sub-Neptune planet candidates, with the overarching goal of increasing the sample of such planets suitable for subsequent atmospheric characterization. This paper lays out our survey's science goals, defines our target prioritization metric, and performs light-curve fits and statistical validation using existing TESS photometry and ground-based follow-up observations. Our survey serves to continue expanding the sample of small exoplanets with well-measured properties orbiting nearby bright stars, ensuring fruitful studies of these systems for many years to come.

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arXiv2024

Asteroseismology of the Nearby K-Dwarf $\sigma$ Draconis using the Keck Planet Finder and TESS

Asteroseismology of dwarf stars cooler than the Sun is very challenging due to the low amplitudes and rapid timescales of oscillations. Here, we present the asteroseismic detection of solar-like oscillations at 4-minute timescales ($\nu_{\mathrm{max}}\sim4300\mu$Hz) in the nearby K-dwarf $\sigma$ Draconis using extreme precision Doppler velocity observations from the Keck Planet Finder and 20-second cadence photometry from NASA's Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite. The star is the coolest dwarf star to date with both velocity and luminosity observations of solar-like oscillations, having amplitudes of $5.9\pm0.8\,$cm$\,\text{s}^{-1}$ and $0.8\pm0.2$ ppm, respectively. These measured values are in excellent agreement with established luminosity-velocity amplitude relations for oscillations and provide further evidence that mode amplitudes for stars with $T_{\mathrm{eff}}<\,5500\,$K diminish in scale following a $(L/M)^{1.5}$ relation. By modeling the star's oscillation frequencies from photometric data, we measure an asteroseismic age of $4.5\pm0.9\,\rm{(ran)} \pm 1.2\,\rm{(sys)}$ Gyr. The observations demonstrate the capability of next-generation spectrographs and precise space-based photometry to extend observational asteroseismology to nearby cool dwarfs, which are benchmarks for stellar astrophysics and prime targets for directly imaging planets using future space-based telescopes.

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arXiv2024

The TESS-Keck Survey XX: 15 New TESS Planets and a Uniform RV Analysis of all Survey Targets

The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) has discovered hundreds of new worlds, with TESS planet candidates now outnumbering the total number of confirmed planets from $\textit{Kepler}$. Owing to differences in survey design, TESS continues to provide planets that are better suited for subsequent follow-up studies, including mass measurement through radial velocity (RV) observations, compared to Kepler targets. In this work, we present the TESS-Keck Survey's (TKS) Mass Catalog: a uniform analysis of all TKS RV survey data which has resulted in mass constraints for 126 planets and candidate signals. This includes 58 mass measurements that have reached $\geq5\sigma$ precision. We confirm or validate 32 new planets from the TESS mission either by significant mass measurement (15) or statistical validation (17), and we find no evidence of likely false positives among our entire sample. This work also serves as a data release for all previously unpublished TKS survey data, including 9,204 RV measurements and associated activity indicators over our three year survey. We took the opportunity to assess the performance of our survey, and found that we achieved many of our goals including measuring the mass of 38 small ($<4R_{\oplus}$) planets, nearly achieving the TESS mission's basic science requirement. In addition, we evaluated the performance of the Automated Planet Finder (APF) as survey support and observed meaningful constraints on system parameters due to its more uniform phase coverage. Finally, we compared our measured masses to those predicted by commonly used mass-radius relations and investigated evidence of systematic bias.

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arXiv2024

The TESS-Keck Survey. XXII. A sub-Neptune Orbiting TOI-1437

Exoplanet discoveries have revealed a dramatic diversity of planet sizes across a vast array of orbital architectures. Sub-Neptunes are of particular interest; due to their absence in our own solar system, we rely on demographics of exoplanets to better understand their bulk composition and formation scenarios. Here, we present the discovery and characterization of TOI-1437 b, a sub-Neptune with a 18.84 day orbit around a near-Solar analog (Mstar = 1.10 +/- 0.10 Msun, Rstar = 1.17 +/- 0.12 Rsun). The planet was detected using photometric data from the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) mission and radial velocity follow-up observations were carried out as a part of the TESS-Keck Survey (TKS) using both the HIRES instrument at Keck Observatory and the Levy Spectrograph on the Automated Planet Finder (APF) telescope. A combined analysis of these data reveal a planet radius of Rp = 2.24 +/- 0.23 Rearth and a mass measurement of Mp = 9.6 +/- 3.9 Mearth). TOI-1437 b is one of few (~50) known transiting sub-Neptunes orbiting a solar-mass star that has a radial velocity mass measurement. As the formation pathway of these worlds remains an unanswered question, the precise mass characterization of TOI-1437 b may provide further insight into this class of planet.

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arXiv2024

The TESS-Keck Survey. XII. A Dense 1.8 R$_\oplus$ Ultra-Short-Period Planet Possibly Clinging to a High-Mean-Molecular-Weight Atmosphere After the First Gyr

The extreme environments of ultra-short-period planets (USPs) make excellent laboratories to study how exoplanets obtain, lose, retain, and/or regain gaseous atmospheres. We present the confirmation and characterization of the USP TOI-1347 b, a $1.8 \pm 0.1$ R$_\oplus$ planet on a 0.85 day orbit that was detected with photometry from the TESS mission. We measured radial velocities of the TOI-1347 system using Keck/HIRES and HARPS-N and found the USP to be unusually massive at $11.1 \pm 1.2$ M$_\oplus$. The measured mass and radius of TOI-1347 b imply an Earth-like bulk composition. A thin H/He envelope (>0.01% by mass) can be ruled out at high confidence. The system is between 1 and 1.8 Gyr old; therefore, intensive photoevaporation should have concluded. We detected a tentative phase curve variation (3$\sigma$) and a secondary eclipse (2$\sigma$) in TESS photometry, which if confirmed could indicate the presence of a high-mean-molecular-weight atmosphere. We recommend additional optical and infrared observations to confirm the presence of an atmosphere and investigate its composition.

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arXiv2024

The TESS-Keck Survey. XIX. A Warm Transiting Sub-Saturn Mass Planet and a non-Transiting Saturn Mass Planet Orbiting a Solar Analog

The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) continues to dramatically increase the number of known transiting exoplanets, and is optimal for monitoring bright stars amenable to radial velocity (RV) and atmospheric follow-up observations. TOI-1386 is a solar-type (G5V) star that was detected via TESS photometry to exhibit transit signatures in three sectors with a period of 25.84 days. We conducted follow-up RV observations using Keck/HIRES as part of the TESS-Keck Survey (TKS), collecting 64 RV measurements of TOI-1386 with the HIRES spectrograph over 2.5 years. Our combined fit of the TOI-1386 photometry and RV data confirm the planetary nature of the detected TESS signal, and provide a mass and radius for planet b of $0.148\pm0.019$ $M_J$ and $0.540\pm0.017$ $R_J$, respectively, marking TOI-1386 b as a warm sub-Saturn planet. Our RV data further reveal an additional outer companion, TOI-1386 c, with an estimated orbital period of 227.6 days and a minimum mass of $0.309\pm0.038$ $M_J$. The dynamical modeling of the system shows that the measured system architecture is long-term stable, although there may be substantial eccentricity oscillations of the inner planet due to the dynamical influence of the outer planet.

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arXiv2023

The TESS-Keck Survey XVII: Precise Mass Measurements in a Young, High Multiplicity Transiting Planet System using Radial Velocities and Transit Timing Variations

We present a radial velocity (RV) analysis of TOI-1136, a bright TESS system with six confirmed transiting planets, and a seventh single-transiting planet candidate. All planets in the system are amenable to transmission spectroscopy, making TOI-1136 one of the best targets for intra-system comparison of exoplanet atmospheres. TOI-1136 is young ($\sim$ 700 Myr), and the system exhibits transit timing variations (TTVs). The youth of the system contributes to high stellar variability on the order of 50 m s$^{-1}$, much larger than the likely RV amplitude of any of the transiting exoplanets. Utilizing 359 HIRES and APF RVs collected as a part of the TESS-Keck Survey (TKS), and 51 HARPS-N RVs, we experiment with a joint TTV-RV fit. With seven possible transiting planets, TTVs, more than 400 RVs, and a stellar activity model, we posit that we may be presenting the most complex mass recovery of an exoplanet system in the literature to date. By combining TTVs and RVs, we minimized GP overfitting and retrieved new masses for this system: (m$_{b-g}$ = 3.50$^{+0.8}_{-0.7}$, 6.32$^{+1.1}_{-1.3}$, 8.35$^{+1.8}_{-1.6}$, 6.07$^{+1.09}_{-1.01}$, 9.7$^{+3.9}_{-3.7}$, 5.6$^{+4.1}_{-3.2}$ M$_{\oplus}$). We are unable to significantly detect the mass of the seventh planet candidate in the RVs, but we are able to loosely constrain a possible orbital period near 80 days. Future TESS observations might confirm the existence of a seventh planet in the system, better constrain the masses and orbital properties of the known exoplanets, and generally shine light on this scientifically interesting system.

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arXiv2023

The development of HISPEC for Keck and MODHIS for TMT: science cases and predicted sensitivities

HISPEC is a new, high-resolution near-infrared spectrograph being designed for the W.M. Keck II telescope. By offering single-shot, R=100,000 between 0.98 - 2.5 um, HISPEC will enable spectroscopy of transiting and non-transiting exoplanets in close orbits, direct high-contrast detection and spectroscopy of spatially separated substellar companions, and exoplanet dynamical mass and orbit measurements using precision radial velocity monitoring calibrated with a suite of state-of-the-art absolute and relative wavelength references. MODHIS is the counterpart to HISPEC for the Thirty Meter Telescope and is being developed in parallel with similar scientific goals. In this proceeding, we provide a brief overview of the current design of both instruments, and the requirements for the two spectrographs as guided by the scientific goals for each. We then outline the current science case for HISPEC and MODHIS, with focuses on the science enabled for exoplanet discovery and characterization. We also provide updated sensitivity curves for both instruments, in terms of both signal-to-noise ratio and predicted radial velocity precision.

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arXiv2023

Identification of the Top TESS Objects of Interest for Atmospheric Characterization of Transiting Exoplanets with JWST

JWST has ushered in an era of unprecedented ability to characterize exoplanetary atmospheres. While there are over 5,000 confirmed planets, more than 4,000 TESS planet candidates are still unconfirmed and many of the best planets for atmospheric characterization may remain to be identified. We present a sample of TESS planets and planet candidates that we identify as "best-in-class" for transmission and emission spectroscopy with JWST. These targets are sorted into bins across equilibrium temperature $T_{\mathrm{eq}}$ and planetary radius $R{_\mathrm{p}}$ and are ranked by transmission and emission spectroscopy metric (TSM and ESM, respectively) within each bin. In forming our target sample, we perform cuts for expected signal size and stellar brightness, to remove sub-optimal targets for JWST. Of the 194 targets in the resulting sample, 103 are unconfirmed TESS planet candidates, also known as TESS Objects of Interest (TOIs). We perform vetting and statistical validation analyses on these 103 targets to determine which are likely planets and which are likely false positives, incorporating ground-based follow-up from the TESS Follow-up Observation Program (TFOP) to aid the vetting and validation process. We statistically validate 23 TOIs, marginally validate 33 TOIs to varying levels of confidence, deem 29 TOIs likely false positives, and leave the dispositions for 4 TOIs as inconclusive. 14 of the 103 TOIs were confirmed independently over the course of our analysis. We provide our final best-in-class sample as a community resource for future JWST proposals and observations. We intend for this work to motivate formal confirmation and mass measurements of each validated planet and encourage more detailed analysis of individual targets by the community.

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arXiv2023

A Mini-Neptune Orbiting the Metal-poor K Dwarf BD+29 2654

We report the discovery and Doppler mass measurement of a 7.4-day 2.3-$R_\oplus$ mini-Neptune around a metal-poor K dwarf BD+29 2654 (TOI-2018). Based on a high-resolution Keck/HIRES spectrum, the Gaia parallax, and multi-wavelength photometry from the ultraviolet to the mid-infrared, we found that the host star has $T_{\text{eff}}=4174^{+34}_{-42}$ K, $\log{g}=4.62^{+0.02}_{-0.03}$, $[\text{Fe/H}]=-0.58\pm0.18$, $M_{\ast}=0.57\pm0.02~M_{\odot}$, and $R_{\ast}=0.62\pm0.01~R_{\odot}$. Precise Doppler measurements with Keck/HIRES revealed a planetary mass of $M_{\text{p}}=9.2\pm2.1~M_{\oplus}$ for TOI-2018 b. TOI-2018 b has a mass and radius that are consistent with an Earth-like core with a $\sim1\%$-by-mass hydrogen/helium envelope, or an ice-rock mixture. The mass of TOI-2018 b is close to the threshold for run-away accretion and hence giant planet formation. Such a threshold is predicted to be around 10$M_\oplus$ or lower for a low-metallicity (low-opacity) environment. If TOI-2018 b is a planetary core that failed to undergo run-away accretion, it may underline the reason why giant planets are rare around low-metallicity host stars (one possibility is their shorter disk lifetimes). With a K-band magnitude of 7.1, TOI-2018 b may be a suitable target for transmission spectroscopy with the James Webb Space Telescope. The system is also amenable to metastable Helium observation; the detection of a Helium exosphere would help distinguish between a H/He enveloped planet and a water world.

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arXiv2023

The TESS-Keck Survey. XV. Precise Properties of 108 TESS Planets and Their Host Stars

We present the stellar and planetary properties for 85 TESS Objects of Interest (TOIs) hosting 108 planet candidates which comprise the TESS-Keck Survey (TKS) sample. We combine photometry, high-resolution spectroscopy, and Gaia parallaxes to measure precise and accurate stellar properties. We then use these parameters as inputs to a lightcurve processing pipeline to recover planetary signals and homogeneously fit their transit properties. Among these transit fits, we detect significant transit-timing variations among at least three multi-planet systems (TOI-1136, TOI-1246, TOI-1339) and at least one single-planet system (TOI-1279). We also reduce the uncertainties on planet-to-star radius ratios $R_p/R_\star$ across our sample, from a median fractional uncertainty of 8.8$\%$ among the original TOI Catalog values to 3.0$\%$ among our updated results. With this improvement, we are able to recover the Radius Gap among small TKS planets and find that the topology of the Radius Gap among our sample is broadly consistent with that measured among Kepler planets. The stellar and planetary properties presented here will facilitate follow-up investigations of both individual TOIs and broader trends in planet properties, system dynamics, and the evolution of planetary systems.

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