arXiv subjects

Craig McIntosh

Publications and source records attributed to Craig McIntosh.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Structured Payment in Pawnshop Borrowing: Mandates vs. Choice

Pawn loans offer borrowers a substantial degree of repayment flexibility in exchange for a harsh penalty in case of default: forfeit of collateral worth more than the loan amount along with any payments made toward recovery. Using a large RCT conducted in Mexico City, we document key stylized facts about pawn lending and explore the merits of replacing flexibility with structured repayment contracts in this important but understudied form of credit. Our experimental design includes a mandatory frequent-payments arm, a (status quo) flexible payments arm, and a choice between the two. This design point-identifies not only the average treatment effect, but also the effects of treatment on the treated and the untreated along with the average selection on gains, allowing a rigorous study of mandates versus choice. Although the average treatment effect of assigning borrowers to structured payments is a 19% decrease in their financial cost and a 17.5% decrease in the probability of default, only 11% of borrowers choose structured repayment contracts voluntarily. We show that structured repayment reduces financial costs for nearly all borrowers, including those who would not freely choose it, and find no evidence of selection on gains in cost savings.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2022

Skills and Liquidity Barriers to Youth Employment: Medium-term Evidence from a Cash Benchmarking Experiment in Rwanda

We present results of an experiment benchmarking a workforce training program against cash transfers for underemployed young adults in Rwanda. 3.5 years after treatment, the training program enhances productive time use and asset investment, while the cash transfers drive productive assets, livestock values, savings, and subjective well-being. Both interventions have powerful effects on entrepreneurship. But while labor, sales, and profits all go up, the implied wage rate in these businesses is low. Our results suggest that credit is a major barrier to self-employment, but deeper reforms may be required to enable entrepreneurship to provide a transformative pathway out of poverty.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2021

Cash versus Kind: Benchmarking a Child Nutrition Program against Unconditional Cash Transfers in Rwanda

We benchmark a multi-dimensional child nutrition intervention against an unconditional cash transfer of equal cost. Randomized variation in transfer amounts allows us to estimate impacts of cash transfers at expenditure levels equivalent to the in-kind program, as well as to estimate the return to increasing cash transfer values. While neither the in-kind program nor a cost-equivalent transfer costing \$124 per household moves core child outcomes within a year, cash transfers create significantly greater consumption than the in-kind alternative. A larger cash transfer costing \$517 substantially improves consumption and investment outcomes and drives modest improvements in dietary diversity and child growth.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2020

Using Household Grants to Benchmark the Cost Effectiveness of a USAID Workforce Readiness Program

We use a randomized experiment to compare a workforce training program to cash transfers in Rwanda. Conducted in a sample of poor and underemployed youth, this study measures the impact of the training program not only relative to a control group but relative to the counterfactual of simply disbursing the cost of the program directly to beneficiaries. While the training program was successful in improving a number of core outcomes (productive hours, assets, savings, and subjective well-being), cost-equivalent cash transfers move all these outcomes as well as consumption, income, and wealth. In the head-to-head costing comparison cash proves superior across a number of economic outcomes, while training outperforms cash only in the production of business knowledge. We find little evidence of complementarity between human and physical capital interventions, and no signs of heterogeneity or spillover effects.

econ.GN↗