arXiv subjects

Cristian Espinal Maya

Publications and source records attributed to Cristian Espinal Maya.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Measuring What Cannot Be Surveyed: LLMs as Instruments for Latent Cognitive Variables in Labor Economics

This paper establishes the theoretical and practical foundations for using Large Language Models (LLMs) as measurement instruments for latent economic variables -- specifically variables that describe the cognitive content of occupational tasks at a level of granularity not achievable with existing survey instruments. I formalize four conditions under which LLM-generated scores constitute valid instruments: semantic exogeneity, construct relevance, monotonicity, and model invariance. I then apply this framework to the Augmented Human Capital Index (AHC_o), constructed from 18,796 O*NET task statements scored by Claude Haiku 4.5, and validated against six existing AI exposure indices. The index shows strong convergent validity (r = 0.85 with Eloundou GPT-gamma, r = 0.79 with Felten AIOE) and discriminant validity. Principal component analysis confirms that AI-related occupational measures span two distinct dimensions -- augmentation and substitution. Inter-rater reliability across two LLM models (n = 3,666 paired scores) yields Pearson r = 0.76 and Krippendorff's alpha = 0.71. Prompt sensitivity analysis across four alternative framings shows that task-level rankings are robust. Obviously Related Instrumental Variables (ORIV) estimation recovers coefficients 25% larger than OLS, consistent with classical measurement error attenuation. The methodology generalizes beyond labor economics to any domain where semantic content must be quantified at scale.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2026

Augmented Human Capital: A Unified Theory and LLM-Based Measurement Framework for Cognitive Factor Decomposition in AI-Augmented Economies

This paper proposes a decomposition of human capital into three orthogonal components -- physical-manual (H^P), routine-cognitive (H^C), and augmentable-cognitive (H^A) -- and develops a production function in which AI capital interacts asymmetrically with these components: substituting for routine cognitive work while complementing augmentable cognitive work through an amplification function phi(D). I derive a corrected Mincerian wage equation and show that the standard specification is misspecified in AI-augmented economies. Using LLM-generated measures of occupational augmentability for 18,796 O*NET task statements mapped to 440 Colombian occupations, merged with household survey microdata (N = 105,517 workers), I estimate the augmented Mincer equation. The wage return to H^A increases with AI adoption in the formal sector (beta_2 = +0.051, p < 0.001), while informal workers cannot capture augmentation rents (beta_2 = -0.044). A triple interaction confirms formality as the binding mechanism (beta_{AHC x D x Formal} = +0.272, p < 0.001). The augmentation premium is strongest for experienced workers (ages 46-65) and in health and education sectors. These results provide the first developing-country evidence of cognitive factor decomposition in AI-augmented labor markets and demonstrate that the binding constraint on human-AI complementarity in the Global South is not technology access but labor market institutions.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2026

From Automation to Augmentation: A Framework for Designing Human-Centric Work Environments in Society 5.0

Society 5.0 and Industry 5.0 call for human-centric technology integration, yet the concept lacks an operational definition that can be measured, optimized, or evaluated at the firm level. This paper addresses three gaps. First, existing models of human-AI complementarity treat the augmentation function phi(D) as exogenous -- dependent only on the stock of AI deployed -- ignoring that two firms with identical technology investments achieve radically different augmentation outcomes depending on how the workplace is organized around the human-AI interaction. Second, no multi-dimensional instrument exists linking workplace design choices to augmentation productivity. Third, the Society 5.0 literature proposes human-centricity as a normative aspiration but provides no formal criterion for when it is economically optimal. We make four contributions. (1) We endogenize the augmentation function as phi(D, W), where W is a five-dimensional workplace design vector -- AI interface design, decision authority allocation, task orchestration, learning loop architecture, and psychosocial work environment -- and prove that human-centric design is profit-maximizing when the workforce's augmentable cognitive capital exceeds a critical threshold. (2) We conduct a PRISMA-guided systematic review of 120 papers (screened from 6,096 records) to map the evidence base for each dimension. (3) We provide secondary empirical evidence from Colombia's EDIT manufacturing survey (N=6,799 firms) showing that management practice quality amplifies the return to technology investment (interaction coefficient 0.304, p<0.01). (4) We propose the Workplace Augmentation Design Index (WADI), a 36-item theory-grounded instrument for diagnosing human-centricity at the firm level. Decision authority allocation emerges as the binding constraint for Society 5.0 transitions, and task orchestration as the most under-researched dimension

econ.GN↗

arXiv2024

Determinants of Workplace Flextime Flexibility: An Empirical Analysis

This study examines the factors that determine workplace autonomy in the choice of schedules, using GEIH data for formal employees from January 2023 to February 2024. A logistic regression model identified significant relationships between autonomy and variables such as company size, income, tenure, workplace, and job satisfaction. The results highlight the complexity of these factors and suggest the need for improvements in the predictive model.

econ.GN↗