A Domain-Structured Ensemble Framework for Perioperative Outcome Prediction Using Electronic Health Record Data
Perioperative risk prediction models are often limited by narrow surgical populations, incomplete intraoperative data, poor calibration, and limited interpretability. We present a domain-structured ensemble framework for perioperative outcome prediction using routinely collected electronic health record (EHR) data. Predictors are organized into patient-related, surgery-related, and anesthetics-related domains. Domain-specific gradient boosting models generate independent risk estimates that are integrated through a logistic regression meta-learner. We demonstrate the framework using postoperative delirium (POD) in a case-control sample of 5,386 surgical encounters (2,693 cases, 2,693 controls) from a statewide health information exchange. POD required both delirium-related ICD codes and a positive Confusion Assessment Method screening within seven postoperative days; patients with preexisting dementia were excluded. The stacked meta-learner achieved AUROC 0.899 (95% CI: 0.891-0.906), precision-recall AUC 0.881, and Brier score 0.126, compared with AUROC 0.849 for the best single-stage model. Domain ablation showed improved discrimination and calibration over a surgery-only model (AUROC 0.879, Brier 0.140). Temporal validation on held-out post-2017 data yielded AUROC 0.915. Calibration was excellent, with intercept -0.006 (95% CI: -0.083 to 0.070) and slope 1.035 (95% CI: 0.982 to 1.088). Decision curve analysis, corrected for case-control sampling, showed positive net benefit across clinically plausible thresholds. The modular framework supports alternative outcomes, extension of predictor domains, and dynamic risk updating, providing a scalable foundation for interpretable, calibration-aware perioperative clinical decision support.