arXiv subjects

Csaba Kiss

Publications and source records attributed to Csaba Kiss.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Signature of exocomet transits observed with Ariel

We investigate the potential of the Ariel space telescope to detect and characterise exocomet transits through their wavelength-dependent photometric signatures. Building on a radiative-transfer framework, we model exocomet transits for three representative dust morphologies, three grain-size distributions, and four homogeneous dust compositions using synthetic photometric bands covering the Ariel wavelength range. The modelled events typically last 1-2 days and produce photometric variations of a few millimagnitudes. We find that the wavelength dependence of the transit signal provides stronger diagnostics of the dust properties than transit morphology alone. In particular, colour variations relative to the VISPhot band and their wavelength-dependent slopes separate the considered compositions into two broad groups: carbonaceous dust and graphite, and olivine and pyroxene. While the compositions within each group show similar behaviour, the two groups remain distinguishable across the dust morphologies and grain sizes considered. We further assess the detectability of these signals using the $β$~Pictoris spectral energy distribution and ArielRad simulations. Integrating over broad synthetic photometric bands substantially improves the signal-to-noise ratio, allowing millimagnitude-level signals to be detected with short integration times for sufficiently bright targets. Ariel's simultaneous optical-to-infrared coverage therefore offers the possibility not only of detecting exocomet transits, but also of characterising their chromatic signatures and constraining broad classes of dust properties. We also discuss the limitations of the modelling assumptions and the potential of coordinated observations with long-baseline photometric missions.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2026

Spectroscopic Survey of Small Solar System Bodies with Ariel

The small Solar System bodies (SSSBs) preserve records of the formation and evolution of the Solar System. In particular, the near-infrared wavelength region around 3 $μ$m provides crucial insights into the origin and transport of hydrated materials and organics, although it is difficult to observe from the ground because of strong telluric absorption. We assess the observability of SSSBs as complementary science to the ESA Ariel space mission, operating in the visible to mid-infrared wavelength range (0.5--7.8 $μ$m). Using the NASA JPL Horizons ephemeris system, we evaluate the visibility of known SSSBs from 2032 to 2035. Our analysis shows that Ariel can spectroscopically characterize up to 402 unique SSSBs under a conservative limiting visual magnitude of $V=13.6$. If observations can be extended to somewhat fainter targets ($V=16$), the number of observable SSSBs could increase to 2144. Assuming operational scenarios in which one SSSB is observed every 3, 7, or 30 days over a four-year mission, the total numbers of observable targets would be 357, 209, and 49, respectively. We further model the spectral energy distributions of candidate targets to evaluate their observational performance. We demonstrate that Ariel can resolve critical absorption features, such as those at 2.7 $μ$m and 3.4 $μ$m, with a higher spectral resolution than the previous infrared survey with AKARI. Observations of SSSBs with Ariel can provide insights into the distribution and evolution of life-forming materials in the Solar System and constitute a scientifically compelling component of Ariel's complementary science program.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2026

Reliability of Zodiacal Background Models at Small Solar Elongations

Present models of the zodiacal light (scattered sunlight from interplanetary dust in the visible) and zodiacal emission (thermal emission in the mid-infrared) are primarily constrained by surface-brightness measurements obtained at relatively large solar elongations (e >~ 60 deg). As a result, their predictive accuracy at smaller elongations remains uncertain. This is particularly relevant for solar elongations of e ~ 30-60 deg, where next-generation near-Earth-object discovery missions such as NEO Surveyor and NEOMIR are designed to operate. To evaluate the reliability of these models at small solar elongations, we compile and reanalyze the available small-elongation zodiacal-light and zodiacal-emission measurements and provide the first systematic validation of modern zodiacal-light models in a regime where they have never been independently tested. We compare two models derived from the COBE/DIRBE survey: one constrained primarily by the spatial and temporal variation of the monochromatic sky brightness, and another that additionally uses interband color information and fixes the absolute normalization by requiring the minimum high-latitude residual at 25um to vanish. We find that the former reproduces the observations significantly better. At wavelengths most relevant to infrared near-Earth-object surveys (8-10 um), it typically agrees with measurements to within ~10% at e ~ 40-60 deg. Although it also performs better at e ~ 30 deg, significant discrepancies remain. These results show that zodiacal emission at small solar elongations is still only weakly constrained and that its absolute brightness remains uncertain. New mid-infrared observations are required to improve background estimates for future infrared survey missions.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2026

The Critical Role of Model Selection in Causal Inference: A Comparative Analysis of Classification Models within the InferBERT Framework for Pharmacovigilance

Distinguishing causal adverse drug events (ADEs) from spurious correlations remains a central challenge in pharmacovigilance. The InferBERT framework integrates transformer models with Do-calculus, but its success hinges on the underlying classification model. This study evaluates the impact of model choice in InferBERT, assessing whether simpler models suffice, if domain-specific pre-training helps, whether scaling to LLMs improves causal detection, and the effect of post-hoc calibration. We performed a comparative study on two benchmarks: Analgesics-induced Acute Liver Failure (AILF) and Tramadol-related Mortalities (TRAM). Four models were evaluated-XGBoost (baseline), ALBERT (original InferBERT), BioBERT (biomedical transformer), and Med-LLaMA (medical LLM)-using 5-fold cross-validation repeated over 20 runs. We measured accuracy, Expected Calibration Error (ECE) pre- and post-isotonic regression, and Jaccard concordance of causal terms with PRR, ROR, and EBGM; significance was tested with paired t-tests. BioBERT achieved the highest accuracy on both datasets, while Med-LLaMA underperformed despite its size and parameter-efficient fine-tuning. Domain-specific pre-training was decisive. Calibration improved ECE but had mixed effects on accuracy and causal discovery. BioBERT's superiority also yielded the strongest concordance with traditional pharmacovigilance signals. These results show that domain-specific pre-training provides a clear advantage over simpler baselines and larger LLMs. Investing in manageable, domain-aware models is more effective for computational pharmacovigilance than simply scaling model size.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

JWST occultation reveals unforeseen complexity in Chariklo's ring system

Ring systems have been discovered around several small bodies in the outer Solar System through stellar occultations. While such measurements provide key information about ring geometry and dynamical interactions, little is known about their origins, lifetimes, evolutionary pathways, or compositions. Here we report near-infrared observations with the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) of a stellar occultation by (10199) Chariklo, a Centaur known to host a double-ring system. Our JWST measurements show that Chariklo's inner dense ring has become significantly more opaque than in previous observations, pointing to ongoing replenishment processes or dynamical restructuring. In contrast, the outer ring exhibits a much weaker near-infrared occultation signature than seen in earlier visible-light detections. This discrepancy may reflect material loss, suggesting that the outer ring could be transient, or may arise from wavelength-dependent opacity. These scenarios, which are not mutually exclusive, point to an unprecedented level of complexity in small-body ring systems, distinct from those observed around any other minor bodies in the Solar System.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2025

Limits of Standard Tidal Models at Quaoar: Matching Weywot's Orbit, Missing the Spin

Weywot, Quaoar's small satellite, follows a nearly circular orbit at a distance of 12.9 times Quaoar's diameter and coexists with a compact ring system. Nevertheless, Quaoar's flattening of 0.16, slow 17.7hr rotation and Weywot's low mass are difficult to reconcile with conventional tidal-evolution theory. We assess whether standard tides can reproduce the present-day architecture of the Quaoar-Weywot system and identify the initial conditions required. Orbit-averaged integrations spanning 4.5Gyr were carried out with two formalisms: (i) a constant phase-lag (CPL) and (ii) an Andrade creep-tide (ACT) framework. With the nominal Weywot mass, both tidal prescriptions converge on Weywot's observed orbital distance for a wide range of initial orbital distances and eccentricities; eccentricity is damped and present-day tidal torques are negligible, rendering the orbit quasi-stationary. Quaoar's spin, however, remains essentially unchanged from its inferred primordial period based on its present-day flattening, and does not reproduce the observed value. A match is possible only if Weywot is 5-10x more massive than current estimates and if its initial eccentricity is finely tuned; such scenarios are inconsistent with occultation-derived masses and imply an implausibly dense satellite. Based on the best fitting viscoelastic parameters, the most plausible composition for Quaoar is found to be a partially differentiated dwarf planet containing roughly equal masses of silicate rock and H2O-dominated warm (150-180K) ices. Standard tidal models reproduce Weywot's semimajor axis but cannot account for Quaoar's slow 17.7hr rotation without invoking an unrealistically massive satellite or external torques, suggesting that non-tidal processes - such as a largely primordial spin, early satellite loss, or a retrograde secondary giant impact - must have influenced Quaoar's rotational evolution.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2025

Rotational Dynamics in Pulsational Pair-Instability Supernovae: Implications for Mass-Loss and Transient Events

Pulsational pair-instability supernovae (PPISNe) are transient events occurring in progenitor stars with helium cores of approximately 32-65 solar masses, where rapid electron-positron pair production induces pressure loss, collapse, and pulsations driving episodic mass loss. The number, strength, and duration of these pulses can lead to shell collisions that produce shock-powered transients, potentially explaining some of the most luminous events, such as superluminous supernovae, and other rare transients. Rapid progenitor rotation lowers the PPISN mass threshold and influences the dynamics, energetics, and chemical composition of PPISN-driven pulses. In this study, we computed 1D evolutionary models of massive, rotating PPISN progenitor stars with zero-age main-sequence masses of 85-140 solar masses and solar metallicity and 10% solar metallicity. Our analysis reveals strong correlations between PPISN ejected mass and total energy as well as between ejected mass and peak ejected shell velocity. Additionally, moderate correlations indicate that higher initial PPISN progenitor mass leads to greater mass ejection and energy release, while negative correlations show that rapid rotation appears to reduce mass ejection and kinetic energy of the shells. Subsequent pulses lead to hydrogen-poor, carbon- and oxygen-enriched ejected shells, indicating the effect of rotationally-induced chemical mixing in PPISN-driven episodic mass loss with implications for their transients. We model the light curve and synthetic spectra that arise from the collision of two H-poor shells for one of our models using the radiation transport code SuperLite. We find that shock-heated H-poor PPISN shell collisions from rapidly rotating progenitors can lead to moderately luminous H-poor transients that share some similarities with observed SLSN-I events.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

Three fast-spinning medium-sized Hilda asteroids uncovered by TESS

Hilda asteroids, which orbit in a 3:2 resonance with Jupiter, serve as key indicators of dynamical processes in the early solar system. Their spin rates, an important probe of these mechanisms, can constrain their density and collisional evolution, offering valuable insights into their origin. In this paper, we report on the identification of three fast-rotating Hilda asteroids with spin periods in the 3.2--3.7 h range using data from the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite. These rotation periods are significantly shorter than the previous $\sim$5.0 h shortest rotation periods obtained from ground-based observations in the $\sim$10 km size range, and are comparable with the $\sim$3.0 h breakup limit of Hildas a few km in size, derived from the FOSSIL survey. These fast-rotating asteroids require either considerable cohesion (in the order of a few kPa), or densities $ρ$ $\gtrsim$1.5 $gm^{-3}$, in contrast to the typically assumed $ρ$ $\lesssim$1 $gm^{-3}$, to prevent rotational break-up. C-type asteroids, which are common in the outer main belt, have densities of $ρ$ $\approx$1.5 $gm^{-3}$ and are known to comprise a small but notable fraction of Hildas. The observed occurrence rate of the $\leq$4 h rotation periods may be explained by the 10-15% fraction of C-type asteroids, likely mixed into these populations from the outer main belt during giant planet dynamical interactions in the early solar system.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2025

Short- and long-term variations of the high mass accretion rate classical T Tauri star DR Tau

Classical T Tauri stars are newly formed, low mass stars which may display both periodic and random variations in their brightness. The interaction between the star and its circumstellar disk is time-dependent, leading to short or long-term changes in the environment, and hence variability of the system. By compiling a large dataset with high-cadence photometric (Kepler, TESS), and high-resolution spectroscopic observations (CFHT/ESPaDOnS) of the highly variable T Tauri star DR Tau, we aim to examine the short- and long-term variability of the system, and identify the underlying physical mechanisms. Our results reveal that DR Tau exhibits stochastic photometric variability not only on daily, but also on hourly timescale with peak-to-peak amplitude of 1.4 mag probably originating from accretion related variations. Our ground-based multifilter photometry shows that the amplitude of the variability decreases with increasing wavelength. This trend towards the infrared wavelengths suggests that part of the disk may be optically thick and invariable. The spectroscopic analysis showed that the H$α$ line presents the most complex line profile with several components but the significance of the components changes over time. This suggests the presence and variation of both accretion flow and wind. Broad and narrow components can be clearly distinguished in the He I and the Ca II lines, suggesting contribution from both the accretion flow and the post-shock region. DR Tau exhibits high level of photometric and spectroscopic variability on both short- and long-timescales, which is caused by the combination of accretion, wind, stellar activity, and obscuration by circumstellar matter; and the significance of the physical mechanisms causing the observed variability changes over time.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2025

Solar System objects observed with TESS -- Early Data Release 2: I. Spin-shape recovery potential of multi-epoch TESS observations

Using multidirectional measurements from the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS), we investigated the viability of determining the approximate shape and spin axis orientations for 44 selected main belt asteroids, using light curve inversion, assuming Lommel-Seeliger ellipsoids. This study aims to investigate the applicability of low-degree-of-freedom shape models in those cases when rotation periods can be accurately determined, but light curves are only available in a limited number of geometries or orbital phases. Our results are compared with the shape and spin axis solutions obtained for the same set of asteroids by more complex light curve inversion methods using mainly ground-based measurements, available via the Database of Asteroid Models from Inversion Techniques (DAMIT).The best-fit spin-axis orientations show a moderately good match with the DAMIT solutions; however, a better agreement is reached with triaxial ellipsoid solution obtained from other large, independent surveys. This suggests that while TESS-only data works well for finding rotation periods, it has its limitations when determining asteroid shape and spin-axis orientation. We discuss the challenges and potential applications of this approach for studying large number of asteroids observed by TESS.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2025

Three fast-rotating Jovian Trojans identified by TESS set new population density limits

Here we report on the identification of the three fastest rotating Jovian Trojans with reliable population assignment, using light curve data from the Transiting Exoplanet Satellite Survey mission, also confirmed by Zwicky Transient Facility data. For two of our targets the rotation periods are moderately below the previously accepted ~5 h Jovian Trojan breakup limit (4.26 and 4.75 h), however, the rotation period of (13383) was found to be P = 2.926 h, leading to a density estimate of $ρ$ $\approx$ 1.6 $g cm^{-3}$, higher than the generally accepted $\leq$ 1 $g cm^{-3}$ density limit of Jovian Trojans. If associated with lower densities, this rotation rate requires considerable cohesion in the order of a few kPa. The relatively high albedo (pV $\approx$ 0.11) and fast rotation suggest that (13383) may have undergone an energetic collision that spun up the body and exposed bright material to the surface.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2024

Radiative transfer modeling of Haumea's dust ring

Among the growing number of small body rings in the solar system, the ring of Haumea has a special status as it is likely suitable for direct imaging in the visible and submillimeter wavelengths. In this paper, we highlight its sole detectability among Centaur/TNO rings using both the ALMA and the James Webb Space Telescope to provide direct constraints on the ring composition for the first time. To overcome the limitations of the currently used simple ring models, we introduce radiative transfer modeling for small body ring systems. Here we perform a thorough analysis of the Haumea ring considering different materials and grain sizes, assuming that the ring consists of small particles with sizes below 1 mm. We present spectral energy distributions of each model for future comparison with multiwavelength measurements, providing a diagnostic tool to determine the dominant grain size and characteristic material of the ring, which are essential inputs for ring formation and evolution theories. Our results also show that for some sub-micron carbon-like or silicate grains, their mid-infrared excess can be detected even if the ring is not resolved, providing a tracer for small grains around the object.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2024

Prominent mid-infrared excess of the dwarf planet (136472) Makemake discovered by JWST/MIRI indicates ongoing activity

We report on the discovery of a very prominent mid-infrared (18-25 μm) excess associated with the trans-Neptunian dwarf planet (136472) Makemake. The excess, detected by the MIRI instrument of the James Webb Space Telescope, along with previous measurements from the Spitzer and Herschel space telescopes, indicates the occurrence of temperatures of about 150 K, much higher than what solid surfaces at Makemake's heliocentric distance could reach by solar irradiation. We identify two potential explanations: a continuously visible, currently active region, powered by subsurface upwelling and possibly cryovolcanic activity, covering <1% of Makemake's surface, or an as yet undetected ring containing very small carbonaceous dust grains, which have not been seen before in trans-Neptunian or Centaur rings. Both scenarios point to unprecedented phenomena among trans-Neptunian objects and could greatly impact our understanding of these distant worlds.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2024

Modelling the age distribution of longevity leaders

Human longevity leaders with remarkably long lifespan play a crucial role in the advancement of longevity research. In this paper, we propose a stochastic model to describe the evolution of the age of the oldest person in the world by a Markov process, in which we assume that the births of the individuals follow a Poisson process with increasing intensity, lifespans of individuals are independent and can be characterized by a gamma-Gompertz distribution with time-dependent parameters. We utilize a dataset of the world's oldest person title holders since 1955, and we compute the maximum likelihood estimate for the parameters iteratively by numerical integration. Based on our preliminary estimates, the model provides a good fit to the data and shows that the age of the oldest person alive increases over time in the future. The estimated parameters enable us to describe the distribution of the age of the record holder process at a future time point.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2024

Exocomet models in transit: light curve morphology in the optical -- near infrared wavelength range

Following the widespread practice of exoplanetary transit simulations, various presumed components of an extrasolar system can be examined in numerically simulated transits, including exomoons, rings around planets, and the deformation of exoplanets. Template signals can then be used to efficiently search for light curve features that mark specific phenomena in the data, and they also provide a basis for feasibility studies of instruments and search programs. In this paper, we present a method for exocomet transit light curve calculations using arbitrary dust distributions in transit. The calculations, spanning four distinct materials (carbon, graphite, pyroxene, and olivine), dust grain sizes ($100$\,nm -- $300$\,nm, $300$\,nm -- $1000$\,nm, and $1000$\,nm -- $3000$\,nm) encompass light curves in VRJHKL bands. We also investigated the behavior of scattering colors. We show that multicolor photometric observations are highly effective tools in the detection and characterization of exocomet transits. They provide information on the dust distribution of the comet (encoded in the light curve shape), while the color information itself can reveal the particle size change and material composition of the transiting material, in relation to the surrounding environment. We also show that the typical cometary tail can result in the wavelength dependence of the transit timing. We demonstrate that multi-wavelength observations can yield compelling evidence for the presence of exocomets in real observations.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2023

The impact of serpentinization on the initial conditions of satellite forming collisions of large Kuiper belt objects

Kuiper belt objects are thought to be formed at least a few million years after the formation of calcium-aluminium-rich inclusions, at a time when the $^{26}$Al isotope -- the major source of radiogenic heat in the early Solar System -- had significantly depleted. The internal structure of these objects is highly dependent on any additional source that can produce extra heat in addition to that produced by the remaining, long-lasting radioactive isotopes. In this paper, we explore how serpentinization, the hydration of silicate minerals, can contribute to the heat budget and to what extent it can modify the internal structure of large Kuiper belt objects. We find that the extent of restructuring depends very strongly on the start time of the formation process, the size of the object, and the starting ice-to-rock ratio. Serpentinization is able to restructure most of the interior of all objects in the whole size range (400-1200\,km) and ice-to-rock ratio range investigated if the process starts early, $\sim$3\,Myr after CAI formation, potentially leading to a predominantly serpentine core much earlier than previously thought ($\leq$5\,Myr vs. several tens of million years). While the ratio of serpentinized material gradually decreases with the increasing formation time, the increasing ice-to-rock ratio, and the increasing start time of planetesimal formation in the outer solar system, in the case of the largest objects a significant part of the interior will be serpentinized even if the formation starts relatively late, $\sim$5\,Myr after CAI formation. Therefore it is feasible that the interior of planetesimals may have contained a significant amount of serpentine, and in some cases, it could have been a dominant constituent, at the time of satellite-forming impacts.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2023

Rotational phase dependent J-H colour of the dwarf planet Eris

The largest bodies - or dwarf planets - constitute a different class among Kuiper belt objects and are characterised by bright surfaces and volatile compositions remarkably different from that of smaller trans-Neptunian objects. These compositional differences are also reflected in the visible and near-infrared colours, and variegations across the surface can cause broadband colours to vary with rotational phase. Here we present near-infrared J and H-band observations of the dwarf planet (136199) Eris obtained with the GuideDog camera of the Infrared Telescope Facility. These measurements show that - as suspected from previous J-H measurements - the J-H colour of Eris indeed varies with rotational phase. This suggests notable surface heterogenity in chemical composition and/or other material properties despite the otherwise quite homogeneous, high albedo surface, characterised by a very low amplitude visible range light curve. While variations in the grain size of the dominant CH4 may in general be responsible for notable changes in the J-H colour, in the current observing geometry of the system it can only partially explain the observed J-H variation.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2023

A dynamical survey of the trans-Neptunian region II.: On the nature of chaotic diffusion

On long enough timescales, chaotic diffusion has the potential to significantly alter the appearance of a dynamical system. The solar system is no exception: diffusive processes take part in the transportation of small bodies and provide dynamical pathways even for the distant trans-Neptunian objects to reach the inner solar system. In this Letter, we carry out a thorough investigation of the nature of chaotic diffusion. We analyze the temporal evolution of the mean squared displacement of ten thousand ensembles of test particles and quantify in each case the diffusion exponent (enabling the classification between normal, sub-, and super-diffusion), the generalized diffusion coefficient, and a characteristic diffusion timescale, too. This latter quantity is compared with an entropy-based timescale, and the two approaches are studied in light of direct computations as well. Our results are given in the context of two-dimensional maps, thereby facilitating the understanding of the relationship between the typical phase space structures and the properties of chaotic diffusion.

astro-ph.EP↗