arXiv subjects

Cui Tao

Publications and source records attributed to Cui Tao.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

AGENT-O: A Semantic Agent Card Framework for Interoperable and Governed Healthcare AI Agents

AGENT-O is a modular ontology framework that defines a semantic Agent Card for representing health-oriented AI agent systems and supports assessment of reporting completeness in scientific publications. AGENT-O was developed as an OWL 2/RDF ontology covering runtime, models, workflow, tools, clinical use, evaluation, provenance, governance, and reporting assessment. Evaluation included ontology inventory, OWL-RL reasoning, three SHACL suites, 12 SPARQL competency queries, three cases, and model-assisted reporting-completeness assessment of 279 papers across five dimensions. The ontology contained 1,962 RDF triples and 1,922 Protege axioms, with 252 active classes, 198 active object properties, and 51 datatype properties. All SHACL suites conformed on example graphs, all competency queries returned prespecified evidence, and all 279 papers were scored. Incomplete reporting was highest for runtime/architecture (84.6%), governance/safety (82.8%), and provenance/reproducibility (78.1%), compared with evaluation (25.8%) and benchmark-process alignment (29.8%). AGENT-O supported semantic Agent Card representation and reporting assessment while revealing an evaluation-specification gap: evaluation and benchmark procedures were reported more consistently than runtime architecture, governance, and reproducibility. AGENT-O provides a reusable ontology, semantic Agent Card profile, and reporting-completeness workflow for structured reporting and gap identification, but does not assess agent quality or deployment readiness.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Optimizing Clinical Trial Protocols Using EHR-Derived Heterogeneous Treatment Effects

Traditional randomized trials often obscure clinically meaningful heterogeneity in treatment response by focusing on average effects. Leveraging real-world data to emulate clinical trials and estimate heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs) offers a promising path toward more precise and efficient trial design. In this study, we emulate the DAPA-HF trial using electronic health records from the Mayo Clinic Cloud (MCC) to investigate whether HTE-guided stratification can identify patient subgroups with distinct treatment responses to dapagliflozin versus placebo in patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction. All-cause mortality was evaluated using Cox proportional hazards models, with HTEs estimated using a Meta-S learner and subgroups defined using a decision tree-based thresholding approach. In the overall cohort of the emulation, no significant treatment difference was observed (HR, 1.681; 95% CI, 0.828-3.413; p = 0.1507). However, compared with the overall emulated cohort, in which dapagliflozin showed no statistically significant survival benefit, HTE-driven stratification identified subgroups with significant and directionally distinct treatment effects. The beneficial (low-HTE) subgroup showed a significant survival benefit from dapagliflozin (HR = 0.203, 95% CI, 0.087-0.476, p = 0.0002), whereas the harmful (high-HTE) subgroup showed a significant harmful association with markedly increased mortality risk (HR = 6.680, 95% CI, 2.759-16.171, p < 0.0001). These findings indicate that HTE-guided stratification can uncover clinically meaningful beneficial and harmful treatment-effect patterns that are masked in the full-cohort emulation.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2025

AD-CDO: A Lightweight Ontology for Representing Eligibility Criteria in Alzheimer's Disease Clinical Trials

Objective This study introduces the Alzheimer's Disease Common Data Element Ontology for Clinical Trials (AD-CDO), a lightweight, semantically enriched ontology designed to represent and standardize key eligibility criteria concepts in Alzheimer's disease (AD) clinical trials. Materials and Methods We extracted high-frequency concepts from more than 1,500 AD clinical trials on ClinicalTrials.gov and organized them into seven semantic categories: Disease, Medication, Diagnostic Test, Procedure, Social Determinants of Health, Rating Criteria, and Fertility. Each concept was annotated with standard biomedical vocabularies, including the UMLS, OMOP Standardized Vocabularies, DrugBank, NDC, and NLM VSAC value sets. To balance coverage and manageability, we applied the Jenks Natural Breaks method to identify an optimal set of representative concepts. Results The optimized AD-CDO achieved over 63% coverage of extracted trial concepts while maintaining interpretability and compactness. The ontology effectively captured the most frequent and clinically meaningful entities used in AD eligibility criteria. We demonstrated AD-CDO's practical utility through two use cases: (a) an ontology-driven trial simulation system for formal modeling and virtual execution of clinical trials, and (b) an entity normalization task mapping raw clinical text to ontology-aligned terms, enabling consistency and integration with EHR data. Discussion AD-CDO bridges the gap between broad biomedical ontologies and task-specific trial modeling needs. It supports multiple downstream applications, including phenotyping algorithm development, cohort identification, and structured data integration. Conclusion By harmonizing essential eligibility entities and aligning them with standardized vocabularies, AD-CDO provides a versatile foundation for ontology-driven AD clinical trial research.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Cognitive bias in LLM reasoning compromises interpretation of clinical oncology notes

Despite high performance on clinical benchmarks, large language models may reach correct conclusions through faulty reasoning, a failure mode with safety implications for oncology decision support that is not captured by accuracy-based evaluation. In this two-cohort retrospective study, we developed a hierarchical taxonomy of reasoning errors from GPT-4 chain-of-thought responses to real oncology notes and tested its clinical relevance. Using breast and pancreatic cancer notes from the CORAL dataset, we annotated 600 reasoning traces to define a three-tier taxonomy mapping computational failures to cognitive bias frameworks. We validated the taxonomy on 822 responses from prostate cancer consult notes spanning localized through metastatic disease, simulating extraction, analysis, and clinical recommendation tasks. Reasoning errors occurred in 23 percent of interpretations and dominated overall errors, with confirmation bias and anchoring bias most common. Reasoning failures were associated with guideline-discordant and potentially harmful recommendations, particularly in advanced disease management. Automated evaluators using state-of-the-art language models detected error presence but could not reliably classify subtypes. These findings show that large language models may provide fluent but clinically unsafe recommendations when reasoning is flawed. The taxonomy provides a generalizable framework for evaluating and improving reasoning fidelity before clinical deployment.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Early GVHD Prediction in Liver Transplantation via Multi-Modal Deep Learning on Imbalanced EHR Data

Graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) is a rare but often fatal complication in liver transplantation, with a very high mortality rate. By harnessing multi-modal deep learning methods to integrate heterogeneous and imbalanced electronic health records (EHR), we aim to advance early prediction of GVHD, paving the way for timely intervention and improved patient outcomes. In this study, we analyzed pre-transplant electronic health records (EHR) spanning the period before surgery for 2,100 liver transplantation patients, including 42 cases of graft-versus-host disease (GVHD), from a cohort treated at Mayo Clinic between 1992 and 2025. The dataset comprised four major modalities: patient demographics, laboratory tests, diagnoses, and medications. We developed a multi-modal deep learning framework that dynamically fuses these modalities, handles irregular records with missing values, and addresses extreme class imbalance through AUC-based optimization. The developed framework outperforms all single-modal and multi-modal machine learning baselines, achieving an AUC of 0.836, an AUPRC of 0.157, a recall of 0.768, and a specificity of 0.803. It also demonstrates the effectiveness of our approach in capturing complementary information from different modalities, leading to improved performance. Our multi-modal deep learning framework substantially improves existing approaches for early GVHD prediction. By effectively addressing the challenges of heterogeneity and extreme class imbalance in real-world EHR, it achieves accurate early prediction. Our proposed multi-modal deep learning method demonstrates promising results for early prediction of a GVHD in liver transplantation, despite the challenge of extremely imbalanced EHR data.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Leveraging Vulnerabilities in Temporal Graph Neural Networks via Strategic High-Impact Assaults

Temporal Graph Neural Networks (TGNNs) have become indispensable for analyzing dynamic graphs in critical applications such as social networks, communication systems, and financial networks. However, the robustness of TGNNs against adversarial attacks, particularly sophisticated attacks that exploit the temporal dimension, remains a significant challenge. Existing attack methods for Spatio-Temporal Dynamic Graphs (STDGs) often rely on simplistic, easily detectable perturbations (e.g., random edge additions/deletions) and fail to strategically target the most influential nodes and edges for maximum impact. We introduce the High Impact Attack (HIA), a novel restricted black-box attack framework specifically designed to overcome these limitations and expose critical vulnerabilities in TGNNs. HIA leverages a data-driven surrogate model to identify structurally important nodes (central to network connectivity) and dynamically important nodes (critical for the graph's temporal evolution). It then employs a hybrid perturbation strategy, combining strategic edge injection (to create misleading connections) and targeted edge deletion (to disrupt essential pathways), maximizing TGNN performance degradation. Importantly, HIA minimizes the number of perturbations to enhance stealth, making it more challenging to detect. Comprehensive experiments on five real-world datasets and four representative TGNN architectures (TGN, JODIE, DySAT, and TGAT) demonstrate that HIA significantly reduces TGNN accuracy on the link prediction task, achieving up to a 35.55% decrease in Mean Reciprocal Rank (MRR) - a substantial improvement over state-of-the-art baselines. These results highlight fundamental vulnerabilities in current STDG models and underscore the urgent need for robust defenses that account for both structural and temporal dynamics.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Dynamicasome: a molecular dynamics-guided and AI-driven pathogenicity prediction catalogue for all genetic mutations

Advances in genomic medicine accelerate the identi cation of mutations in disease-associated genes, but the pathogenicity of many mutations remains unknown, hindering their use in diagnostics and clinical decision-making. Predictive AI models are generated to combat this issue, but current tools display low accuracy when tested against functionally validated datasets. We show that integrating detailed conformational data extracted from molecular dynamics simulations (MDS) into advanced AI-based models increases their predictive power. We carry out an exhaustive mutational analysis of the disease gene PMM2 and subject structural models of each variant to MDS. AI models trained on this dataset outperform existing tools when predicting the known pathogenicity of mutations. Our best performing model, a neuronal networks model, also predicts the pathogenicity of several PMM2 mutations currently considered of unknown signi cance. We believe this model helps alleviate the burden of unknown variants in genomic medicine.

q-bio.QM↗

arXiv2025

ETT-CKGE: Efficient Task-driven Tokens for Continual Knowledge Graph Embedding

Continual Knowledge Graph Embedding (CKGE) seeks to integrate new knowledge while preserving past information. However, existing methods struggle with efficiency and scalability due to two key limitations: (1) suboptimal knowledge preservation between snapshots caused by manually designed node/relation importance scores that ignore graph dependencies relevant to the downstream task, and (2) computationally expensive graph traversal for node/relation importance calculation, leading to slow training and high memory overhead. To address these limitations, we introduce ETT-CKGE (Efficient, Task-driven, Tokens for Continual Knowledge Graph Embedding), a novel task-guided CKGE method that leverages efficient task-driven tokens for efficient and effective knowledge transfer between snapshots. Our method introduces a set of learnable tokens that directly capture task-relevant signals, eliminating the need for explicit node scoring or traversal. These tokens serve as consistent and reusable guidance across snapshots, enabling efficient token-masked embedding alignment between snapshots. Importantly, knowledge transfer is achieved through simple matrix operations, significantly reducing training time and memory usage. Extensive experiments across six benchmark datasets demonstrate that ETT-CKGE consistently achieves superior or competitive predictive performance, while substantially improving training efficiency and scalability compared to state-of-the-art CKGE methods. The code is available at: https://github.com/lijingzhu1/ETT-CKGE/tree/main

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Launching Insights: A Pilot Study on Leveraging Real-World Observational Data from the Mayo Clinic Platform to Advance Clinical Research

Backgrounds: Artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming healthcare, yet translating AI models from theoretical frameworks to real-world clinical applications remains challenging. The Mayo Clinic Platform (MCP) was established to address these challenges by providing a scalable ecosystem that integrates real-world multiple modalities data from multiple institutions, advanced analytical tools, and secure computing environments to support clinical research and AI development. Methods: In this study, we conducted four research projects leveraging MCP's data infrastructure and analytical capabilities to demonstrate its potential in facilitating real-world evidence generation and AI-driven clinical insights. Utilizing MCP's tools and environment, we facilitated efficient cohort identification, data extraction, and subsequent statistical or AI-powered analyses. Results: The results underscore MCP's role in accelerating translational research by offering de-identified, standardized real-world data and facilitating AI model validation across diverse healthcare settings. Compared to Mayo's internal Electronic Health Record (EHR) data, MCP provides broader accessibility, enhanced data standardization, and multi-institutional integration, making it a valuable resource for both internal and external researchers. Conclusion: Looking ahead, MCP is well-positioned to transform clinical research through its scalable ecosystem, effectively bridging the divide between AI innovation and clinical deployment. Future investigations will build upon this foundation, further exploring MCP's capacity to advance precision medicine and enhance patient outcomes.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2025

LLM-Match: An Open-Sourced Patient Matching Model Based on Large Language Models and Retrieval-Augmented Generation

Patient matching is the process of linking patients to appropriate clinical trials by accurately identifying and matching their medical records with trial eligibility criteria. We propose LLM-Match, a novel framework for patient matching leveraging fine-tuned open-source large language models. Our approach consists of four key components. First, a retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) module extracts relevant patient context from a vast pool of electronic health records (EHRs). Second, a prompt generation module constructs input prompts by integrating trial eligibility criteria (both inclusion and exclusion criteria), patient context, and system instructions. Third, a fine-tuning module with a classification head optimizes the model parameters using structured prompts and ground-truth labels. Fourth, an evaluation module assesses the fine-tuned model's performance on the testing datasets. We evaluated LLM-Match on four open datasets - n2c2, SIGIR, TREC 2021, and TREC 2022 - using open-source models, comparing it against TrialGPT, Zero-Shot, and GPT-4-based closed models. LLM-Match outperformed all baselines.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Advancing Pancreatic Cancer Prediction with a Next Visit Token Prediction Head on top of Med-BERT

Background: Recently, numerous foundation models pretrained on extensive data have demonstrated efficacy in disease prediction using Electronic Health Records (EHRs). However, there remains some unanswered questions on how to best utilize such models especially with very small fine-tuning cohorts. Methods: We utilized Med-BERT, an EHR-specific foundation model, and reformulated the disease binary prediction task into a token prediction task and a next visit mask token prediction task to align with Med-BERT's pretraining task format in order to improve the accuracy of pancreatic cancer (PaCa) prediction in both few-shot and fully supervised settings. Results: The reformulation of the task into a token prediction task, referred to as Med-BERT-Sum, demonstrates slightly superior performance in both few-shot scenarios and larger data samples. Furthermore, reformulating the prediction task as a Next Visit Mask Token Prediction task (Med-BERT-Mask) significantly outperforms the conventional Binary Classification (BC) prediction task (Med-BERT-BC) by 3% to 7% in few-shot scenarios with data sizes ranging from 10 to 500 samples. These findings highlight that aligning the downstream task with Med-BERT's pretraining objectives substantially enhances the model's predictive capabilities, thereby improving its effectiveness in predicting both rare and common diseases. Conclusion: Reformatting disease prediction tasks to align with the pretraining of foundation models enhances prediction accuracy, leading to earlier detection and timely intervention. This approach improves treatment effectiveness, survival rates, and overall patient outcomes for PaCa and potentially other cancers.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

Prompting Large Language Models for Clinical Temporal Relation Extraction

Objective: This paper aims to prompt large language models (LLMs) for clinical temporal relation extraction (CTRE) in both few-shot and fully supervised settings. Materials and Methods: This study utilizes four LLMs: Encoder-based GatorTron-Base (345M)/Large (8.9B); Decoder-based LLaMA3-8B/MeLLaMA-13B. We developed full (FFT) and parameter-efficient (PEFT) fine-tuning strategies and evaluated these strategies on the 2012 i2b2 CTRE task. We explored four fine-tuning strategies for GatorTron-Base: (1) Standard Fine-Tuning, (2) Hard-Prompting with Unfrozen LLMs, (3) Soft-Prompting with Frozen LLMs, and (4) Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) with Frozen LLMs. For GatorTron-Large, we assessed two PEFT strategies-Soft-Prompting and LoRA with Frozen LLMs-leveraging Quantization techniques. Additionally, LLaMA3-8B and MeLLaMA-13B employed two PEFT strategies: LoRA strategy with Quantization (QLoRA) applied to Frozen LLMs using instruction tuning and standard fine-tuning. Results: Under fully supervised settings, Hard-Prompting with Unfrozen GatorTron-Base achieved the highest F1 score (89.54%), surpassing the SOTA model (85.70%) by 3.74%. Additionally, two variants of QLoRA adapted to GatorTron-Large and Standard Fine-Tuning of GatorTron-Base exceeded the SOTA model by 2.36%, 1.88%, and 0.25%, respectively. Decoder-based models with frozen parameters outperformed their Encoder-based counterparts in this setting; however, the trend reversed in few-shot scenarios. Discussions and Conclusions: This study presented new methods that significantly improved CTRE performance, benefiting downstream tasks reliant on CTRE systems. The findings underscore the importance of selecting appropriate models and fine-tuning strategies based on task requirements and data availability. Future work will explore larger models and broader CTRE applications.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

A Comparative Study of Recent Large Language Models on Generating Hospital Discharge Summaries for Lung Cancer Patients

Generating discharge summaries is a crucial yet time-consuming task in clinical practice, essential for conveying pertinent patient information and facilitating continuity of care. Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) have significantly enhanced their capability in understanding and summarizing complex medical texts. This research aims to explore how LLMs can alleviate the burden of manual summarization, streamline workflow efficiencies, and support informed decision-making in healthcare settings. Clinical notes from a cohort of 1,099 lung cancer patients were utilized, with a subset of 50 patients for testing purposes, and 102 patients used for model fine-tuning. This study evaluates the performance of multiple LLMs, including GPT-3.5, GPT-4, GPT-4o, and LLaMA 3 8b, in generating discharge summaries. Evaluation metrics included token-level analysis (BLEU, ROUGE-1, ROUGE-2, ROUGE-L) and semantic similarity scores between model-generated summaries and physician-written gold standards. LLaMA 3 8b was further tested on clinical notes of varying lengths to examine the stability of its performance. The study found notable variations in summarization capabilities among LLMs. GPT-4o and fine-tuned LLaMA 3 demonstrated superior token-level evaluation metrics, while LLaMA 3 consistently produced concise summaries across different input lengths. Semantic similarity scores indicated GPT-4o and LLaMA 3 as leading models in capturing clinical relevance. This study contributes insights into the efficacy of LLMs for generating discharge summaries, highlighting LLaMA 3's robust performance in maintaining clarity and relevance across varying clinical contexts. These findings underscore the potential of automated summarization tools to enhance documentation precision and efficiency, ultimately improving patient care and operational capability in healthcare settings.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

Improving Entity Recognition Using Ensembles of Deep Learning and Fine-tuned Large Language Models: A Case Study on Adverse Event Extraction from Multiple Sources

Adverse event (AE) extraction following COVID-19 vaccines from text data is crucial for monitoring and analyzing the safety profiles of immunizations. Traditional deep learning models are adept at learning intricate feature representations and dependencies in sequential data, but often require extensive labeled data. In contrast, large language models (LLMs) excel in understanding contextual information, but exhibit unstable performance on named entity recognition tasks, possibly due to their broad but unspecific training. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of LLMs and traditional deep learning models in AE extraction, and to assess the impact of ensembling these models on performance. In this study, we utilized reports and posts from the VAERS (n=621), Twitter (n=9,133), and Reddit (n=131) as our corpora. Our goal was to extract three types of entities: "vaccine", "shot", and "ae". We explored and fine-tuned (except GPT-4) multiple LLMs, including GPT-2, GPT-3.5, GPT-4, and Llama-2, as well as traditional deep learning models like RNN and BioBERT. To enhance performance, we created ensembles of the three models with the best performance. For evaluation, we used strict and relaxed F1 scores to evaluate the performance for each entity type, and micro-average F1 was used to assess the overall performance. The ensemble model achieved the highest performance in "vaccine", "shot", and "ae" with strict F1-scores of 0.878, 0.930, and 0.925, respectively, along with a micro-average score of 0.903. In conclusion, this study demonstrates the effectiveness and robustness of ensembling fine-tuned traditional deep learning models and LLMs, for extracting AE-related information. This study contributes to the advancement of biomedical natural language processing, providing valuable insights into improving AE extraction from text data for pharmacovigilance and public health surveillance.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

Relation Extraction Using Large Language Models: A Case Study on Acupuncture Point Locations

In acupuncture therapy, the accurate location of acupoints is essential for its effectiveness. The advanced language understanding capabilities of large language models (LLMs) like Generative Pre-trained Transformers (GPT) present a significant opportunity for extracting relations related to acupoint locations from textual knowledge sources. This study aims to compare the performance of GPT with traditional deep learning models (Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers for Biomedical Text Mining (BioBERT)) in extracting acupoint-related location relations and assess the impact of pretraining and fine-tuning on GPT's performance. We utilized the World Health Organization Standard Acupuncture Point Locations in the Western Pacific Region (WHO Standard) as our corpus, which consists of descriptions of 361 acupoints. Five types of relations ('direction_of,' 'distance_of,' 'part_of,' 'near_acupoint,' and 'located_near') (n= 3,174) between acupoints were annotated. Five models were compared: BioBERT, LSTM, pre-trained GPT-3.5, fine-tuned GPT-3.5, as well as pre-trained GPT-4. Performance metrics included micro-average exact match precision, recall, and F1 scores. Our results demonstrate that fine-tuned GPT-3.5 consistently outperformed other models in F1 scores across all relation types. Overall, it achieved the highest micro-average F1 score of 0.92. This study underscores the effectiveness of LLMs like GPT in extracting relations related to acupoint locations, with implications for accurately modeling acupuncture knowledge and promoting standard implementation in acupuncture training and practice. The findings also contribute to advancing informatics applications in traditional and complementary medicine, showcasing the potential of LLMs in natural language processing.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

Uncovering Misattributed Suicide Causes through Annotation Inconsistency Detection in Death Investigation Notes

Data accuracy is essential for scientific research and policy development. The National Violent Death Reporting System (NVDRS) data is widely used for discovering the patterns and causes of death. Recent studies suggested the annotation inconsistencies within the NVDRS and the potential impact on erroneous suicide-cause attributions. We present an empirical Natural Language Processing (NLP) approach to detect annotation inconsistencies and adopt a cross-validation-like paradigm to identify problematic instances. We analyzed 267,804 suicide death incidents between 2003 and 2020 from the NVDRS. Our results showed that incorporating the target state's data into training the suicide-crisis classifier brought an increase of 5.4% to the F-1 score on the target state's test set and a decrease of 1.1% on other states' test set. To conclude, we demonstrated the annotation inconsistencies in NVDRS's death investigation notes, identified problematic instances, evaluated the effectiveness of correcting problematic instances, and eventually proposed an NLP improvement solution.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2023

AE-GPT: Using Large Language Models to Extract Adverse Events from Surveillance Reports-A Use Case with Influenza Vaccine Adverse Events

Though Vaccines are instrumental in global health, mitigating infectious diseases and pandemic outbreaks, they can occasionally lead to adverse events (AEs). Recently, Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown promise in effectively identifying and cataloging AEs within clinical reports. Utilizing data from the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) from 1990 to 2016, this study particularly focuses on AEs to evaluate LLMs' capability for AE extraction. A variety of prevalent LLMs, including GPT-2, GPT-3 variants, GPT-4, and Llama 2, were evaluated using Influenza vaccine as a use case. The fine-tuned GPT 3.5 model (AE-GPT) stood out with a 0.704 averaged micro F1 score for strict match and 0.816 for relaxed match. The encouraging performance of the AE-GPT underscores LLMs' potential in processing medical data, indicating a significant stride towards advanced AE detection, thus presumably generalizable to other AE extraction tasks.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2023

Self-explainable Graph Neural Network for Alzheimer's Disease And Related Dementias Risk Prediction

Background: Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (ADRD) ranks as the sixth leading cause of death in the US, underlining the importance of accurate ADRD risk prediction. While recent advancement in ADRD risk prediction have primarily relied on imaging analysis, yet not all patients undergo medical imaging before an ADRD diagnosis. Merging machine learning with claims data can reveal additional risk factors and uncover interconnections among diverse medical codes. Objective: Our goal is to utilize Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) with claims data for ADRD risk prediction. Addressing the lack of human-interpretable reasons behind these predictions, we introduce an innovative method to evaluate relationship importance and its influence on ADRD risk prediction, ensuring comprehensive interpretation. Methods: We employed Variationally Regularized Encoder-decoder Graph Neural Network (VGNN) for estimating ADRD likelihood. We created three scenarios to assess the model's efficiency, using Random Forest and Light Gradient Boost Machine as baselines. We further used our relation importance method to clarify the key relationships for ADRD risk prediction. Results: VGNN surpassed other baseline models by 10% in the area under the receiver operating characteristic. The integration of the GNN model and relation importance interpretation could potentially play an essential role in providing valuable insight into factors that may contribute to or delay ADRD progression. Conclusions: Employing a GNN approach with claims data enhances ADRD risk prediction and provides insights into the impact of interconnected medical code relationships. This methodology not only enables ADRD risk modeling but also shows potential for other image analysis predictions using claims data.

cs.LG↗