arXiv subjects

Cullen H. Blake

Publications and source records attributed to Cullen H. Blake.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Improving the Precision of Line-by-Line Radial Velocities: A Data-Driven Iterative Algorithm for Spectral Line Selection

Independent analysis of individual spectral lines, or line-by-line (LBL) analyses, can improve upon standard cross-correlation function (CCF) methods for measuring radial velocities (RVs) because they preserve critical information about individual line shape changes that can be caused by stellar activity. In this work, we measure LBL RVs of 3,830 spectral lines across 383 days of NEID solar observations. Our LBL approach achieves an RV RMS of $2.012~\mathrm{m\,s^{-1}}$, which is slightly lower than the $2.129~\mathrm{m\,s^{-1}}$ achieved by a CCF approach using a shared line list. Then, we describe and benchmark several methods for selecting line lists based on line properties such as depth and intrinsic RV scatter. We find that these subsets have a lower RV RMS compared to either the full line list or random subsets of equal size. Motivated by these results, we present FLARES (Filtering Lines for Accurate Radial-velocity Exoplanet Search), an iterative line-selection algorithm. FLARES selects candidate spectral lines with extreme values of multiple line metrics and properties such as depth, signal-to-noise ratio, and detector position, and preferentially rejects lines whose removal produces the largest decrease in the weighted RV scatter. FLARES achieves an RV RMS of $1.122~\mathrm{m\,s^{-1}}$ using just 24 lines and performs better than the benchmark methods. We perform Monte Carlo simulations and show FLARES is robust and reproducible. Comparisons to alternative line lists chosen to have properties similar to the best FLARES-selected lines demonstrate that FLARES is successfully identifying line properties that lead to effective line lists for future extreme-precision RV measurements.

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arXiv2026

The NEID Earth Twin Survey. IV. Confirming an 89 d, $m\sin i=10~\mathrm{M_\oplus}$ Planet Orbiting a Nearby Sun-like Star

We present the confirmation of HD 190360 d, a warm ($P=88.690^{+0.051}_{-0.049}~\mathrm{d}$), low-mass ($m\sin i=10.23^{+0.81}_{-0.80}~\mathrm{M_\oplus}$) planet orbiting the nearby ($d=16.0$ pc), Sun-like (G7) star HD 190360. We detect HD 190360 d at high statistical significance even though its radial velocity (RV) semi-amplitude is only $K=1.48\pm0.11~\mathrm{m~s^{-1}}$. Such low-amplitude signals are often challenging to confirm due to potential confusion with low-amplitude stellar signals. The HD 190360 system previously had two known planets: the $1.7~\mathrm{M_J}$ (true mass) HD 190360 b on a $7.9$ yr orbit and the $21~\mathrm{M_\oplus}$ (minimum mass) HD 190360 c on a $17.1$ d orbit. Here, we present an in-depth analysis of the HD 190360 planetary system that comprises more than 30 years of RV measurements and absolute astrometry from the Hipparcos and Gaia spacecrafts. Our analysis uses more than 1400 RVs, including nearly 100 from NEID. The proper motion anomaly as measured by these two astrometric missions solves for the dynamical mass of HD 190360 b and contributes to our understanding of the overall system architecture, while the long baseline of RVs enables the robust characterization of HD 190360 c and confirms the discovery of HD 190360 d.

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arXiv2025

Discovery of a Nearby Habitable Zone Super-Earth Candidate Amenable to Direct Imaging

We present the discovery of GJ 251 c, a candidate super-Earth orbiting in the Habitable Zone (HZ) of its M dwarf host star. Using high-precision Habitable-zone Planet Finder (HPF) and NEID RVs, in conjunction with archival RVs from the Keck I High Resolution Echelle Spectrometer (HIRES), the Calar Alto high-Resolution search for M dwarfs with Exoearths with Near-infrared and optical Echelle Spectrograph (CARMENES), and the SPectropolarimètre InfraROUge (SPIRou), we improve the measured parameters of the known planet, GJ 251 b ($P_{b}$ = 14.2370 days; $m \sin(i)$ = 3.85$^{+0.35}_{-0.33}$ M$_{\oplus}$), and we significantly constrain the minimum mass of GJ 251 c, placing it in a plausibly terrestrial regime (P$_{c}$ = 53.647 $\pm$ 0.044 days; $ m \sin i_{c}$ = 3.84 $\pm$ 0.75 M$_{\oplus}$). Using activity mitigation techniques that leverage chromatic information content, we perform a color-dependent analysis of the system and a detailed comparison of more than 50 models that describe the nature of the planets and stellar activity in the system. Due to GJ 251's proximity to Earth (5.5 pc), next generation, thirty meter class telescopes will likely be able to image terrestrial planets in GJ 251's HZ. In fact, GJ 251 c is currently the best candidate for terrestrial, HZ planet imaging in the Northern Sky.

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arXiv2025

The NEID Earth Twin Survey. III. Survey Performance After Three Years on Sky

The NEID Earth Twin Survey (NETS) has been delivering a rich set of precise radial velocity (RV) measurements for 41 bright, nearby main sequence stars. Here, we describe the status of the survey after three years on sky and we present the full set of RV measurements and accompanying stellar activity indicators. We discuss intermediate survey diagnostics, including calibration of the known RV zero point offset introduced following the Contreras fire in 2022 and the identification of an undiagnosed and previously unknown zero point offset in 2021. An analysis of our data set using RVSearch demonstrates that for these target stars, NEID is independently sensitive to nearly all known planets with periods shorter than the NETS observing baseline. We also highlight a number of newly detected RV signals, which present exciting opportunities for future investigations.

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arXiv2025

TOI-1259Ab: A Warm Jupiter Orbiting a K-dwarf White-Dwarf Binary is on a Well-aligned Orbit

The evolution of one member of a stellar binary into a white dwarf has been proposed as a mechanism that triggers the formation of close-in gas giant planets. The star's asymmetric mass loss during the AGB stage gives it a "kick" that can initiate Eccentric Lidov-Kozai oscillations, potentially causing a planet around the secondary star to migrate inwards and perturbing the eccentricity and inclination of its orbit. Here we present a measurement of the stellar obliquity of TOI-1259Ab, a gas giant in a close-in orbit around a K star with a white dwarf companion about 1650 au away. By using the NEID spectrograph to detect the Rossiter-McLaughlin effect during the planetary transit, we find the sky-projected obliquity to be $λ= 6^{+21}_{-22}\,^\circ$. When combined with estimates of the stellar rotation period, radius, and projected rotation velocity, we find the true 3D obliquity to be $ψ= 24^{+14}_{-12}\,^\circ$ ($ψ< 48^\circ$ at 95% confidence), revealing that the orbit of TOI-1259Ab is well aligned with the star's equatorial plane. Because the planet's orbit is too wide for tidal realignment to be expected, TOI-1259Ab might have formed quiescently in this well-aligned configuration. Alternatively, as we show with dynamical simulations, Eccentric Lidov-Kozai oscillations triggered by the evolution of the binary companion are expected to lead to a low obliquity with a probability of about $\sim$14%.

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arXiv2025

The NEID Earth Twin Survey. II. Dynamical Masses in Seven High-acceleration Star Systems

We present a set of companion dynamical masses and orbital parameters of seven star systems from the NEID Earth Twin Survey with significant absolute astrometric accelerations between the epochs of Hipparcos and Gaia. These include four binary star systems (HD 68017 AB, 61 Cygni AB, HD 24496 AB, and HD 4614 AB) and three planetary systems (HD 217107, HD 190360, and HD 154345). Our analyses incorporate a long baseline of RVs that includes over 1100 previously unpublished measurements from NEID and MINERVA, extending the overall RV baseline for each system by $\approx$2.5 years, as well as relative astrometry for the stellar binary systems where the positions of both stars are well-measured. In each case, the combination of astrometry and RVs constrains the three-dimensional acceleration of the host star and enables precise dynamical masses. We publish true masses for three planets whose measurements were previously entangled with their inclinations, four stellar masses with $\lesssim$1% relative precision, and improved orbital solutions for all seven systems, including the first for HD 24496 AB. These solutions not only agree with previous estimates, but also improve their fidelity. We also explore each system for evidence of periodic signals in the residuals around our best-fit models, and discuss the potential that the three planetary systems have for being directly imaged. With dynamical mass estimates and reliable orbit ephemerides, these seven star systems represent promising benchmarks for future stellar and planetary characterization efforts, and are amenable for further improvement with the upcoming release of Gaia epoch astrometry.

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arXiv2025

Three-dimensional Orbit and Dynamical Masses of GJ 105 AC

The precision of stellar models is higher than the precision at which we are able to measure the masses of most stars, with the notable exception of binaries where we can determine dynamical masses of the component stars. In addition to well-measured stellar properties, the ideal benchmark star is far enough from its companion that its properties are indistinguishable from an otherwise identical single star. Currently, there are a handful of stars with precise ($\pm$3 %), model-independent mass measurements that are "effectively single" and for which we can obtain clean spectra (i.e. spectra that are not blended with a close companion). In this paper, we introduce GJ 105 AC as the newest members of this exclusive population. We present an updated orbital analysis for the long-period K3+M7 binary GJ 105 AC. We jointly analyze radial velocity (RV) and relative astrometry data, including new RVs from the Miniature Exoplanet Radial Velocity Array (MINERVA) that capture the full periapsis passage and the RV minimum of the $76.0 \pm 1.3$ yr orbit for the first time. We derive precise dynamical masses of $M_1 = 0.78 \pm 0.02\, \mathrm{M}_\odot$ and $M_2 = 0.098 \pm 0.002\, \mathrm{M}_\odot$. We find that of all stars with similarly precise masses (~2%), GJ 105 AC stands out as having the widest on-sky separation after $α$ Centauri AB, making it one of the most easily accessible to spectroscopy, as well as the the second-widest true separation, ensuring that its members are truly "effectively single" in terms of their evolution.

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arXiv2024

Jitter Across 15 Years: Leveraging Precise Photometry from Kepler and TESS to Extract Exoplanets from Radial Velocity Time Series

Stellar activity contamination of radial velocity (RV) data is one of the top challenges plaguing the field of extreme precision RV (EPRV) science. Previous work has shown that photometry can be very effective at removing such signals from RV data, especially stellar activity caused by rotating star spots and plage.The exact utility of photometry for removing RV activity contamination, and the best way to apply it, is not well known. We present a combination photometric and RV study of eight Kepler/K2 FGK stars with known stellar variability. We use NEID RVs acquired simultaneously with TESS photometry, and we perform injection recovery tests to quantify the efficacy of recent TESS photometry versus archival Kepler/K2 photometry for removing stellar variability from RVs. We additionally experiment with different TESS sectors when training our models in order to quantify the real benefit of simultaneously acquired RVs and photometry. We conclude that Kepler photometry typically performs better than TESS at removing noise from RV data when it is available, likely due to longer baseline and precision. In contrast, for targets with available K2 photometry, especially those most active, and with high precision ($σ_{NEID}$ $<$ 1 m s$^{-1}$) NEID RVs, TESS may be the more informative dataset. However, contrary to expectations, we have found that training on simultaneous photometry does not always achieve the best results.

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arXiv2024

Searching for GEMS: TOI-5688 A b, a low-density giant orbiting a high-metallicity early M-dwarf

We present the discovery of a low-density planet orbiting the high-metallicity early M-dwarf TOI-5688 A b. This planet was characterized as part of the search for transiting giant planets ($R \gtrsim8$ M${}_\oplus$) through the Searching for GEMS (Giant Exoplanets around M-dwarf Stars) survey. The planet was discovered with the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS), and characterized with ground-based transits from Red Buttes Observatory (RBO), the Table Mountain Observatory of Pomona College, and radial velocity (RV) measurements with the Habitable-Zone Planet Finder (HPF) on the 10 m Hobby Eberly Telescope (HET) and NEID on the WIYN 3.5 m telescope. From the joint fit of transit and RV data, we measure a planetary mass and radius of $124\pm24$ M$_\oplus$ ($0.39\pm0.07$ M${}_J$) and $10.4\pm0.7$ R$_\oplus$ ($0.92\pm0.06$ R${}_J$) respectively. The spectroscopic and photometric analysis of the host star TOI-5688 A shows that it is a metal-rich ([Fe/H] $ = 0.47\pm0.16$ dex) M2V star, favoring the core-accretion formation pathway as the likely formation scenario for this planet. Additionally, Gaia astrometry suggests the presence of a wide-separation binary companion, TOI-5688 B, which has a projected separation of $\sim5"$ (1110 AU) and is an M4V, making TOI-5688 A b part of the growing number of GEMS in wide-separation binary systems.

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arXiv2024

The NEID Earth Twin Survey. I. Confirmation of a 31-day planet orbiting HD 86728

With close to three years of observations in hand, the NEID Earth Twin Survey (NETS) is starting to unearth new astrophysical signals for a curated sample of bright, radial velocity (RV)-quiet stars. We present the discovery of the first NETS exoplanet, HD 86728 b, a $m_p\sin i = 9.16^{+0.55}_{-0.56}\ \rm{M}_\oplus$ planet on a circular, $P=31.1503^{+0.0062}_{-0.0066}$ d orbit, thereby confirming a candidate signal identified by Hirsch et al. (2021). We confirm the planetary origin of the detected signal, which has a semi-amplitude of just $K=1.91^{+0.11}_{-0.12}$ m s$^{-1}$, via careful analysis of the NEID RVs and spectral activity indicators, and we constrain the mass and orbit via fits to NEID and archival RV measurements. The host star is intrinsically quiet at the $\sim1$ m s$^{-1}$ level, with the majority of this variability likely stemming from short-timescale granulation. HD 86728 b is among the small fraction of exoplanets with similar masses and periods that have no known planetary siblings.

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arXiv2024

Data-Driven Modeling of Telluric Features and Stellar Variability with StellarSpectraObservationFitting.jl

A significant barrier to achieving the radial velocity (RV) measurement accuracy and precision required to characterize terrestrial mass exoplanets is the existence of time-variable features in the measured spectra, from both telluric absorption and stellar variability, which affect measured line shapes and can cause apparent RV shifts. Reaching the desired accuracy using traditional techniques often requires avoiding lines contaminated by stellar variability and/or changing tellurics, and thus discarding a large fraction of the spectrum, lowering precision. New data-driven methods can help achieve extremely precise and accurate RVs by enabling the use of a larger fraction of the available data. While there exist methods for modeling telluric features or the stellar variability individually, there is a need for additional tools that are capable of modeling them simultaneously at the spectral level. Here we present StellarSpectraObservationFitting.jl (SSOF), a Julia package for measuring Doppler shifts and creating data-driven models (with fast, physically-motivated Gaussian Process regularization) for the time-variable spectral features for both the telluric transmission and stellar spectrum, while accounting for the wavelength-dependent instrumental line-spread function. We demonstrate SSOF's state-of-the-art performance on data from the NEID RV spectrograph on the WIYN 3.5m Telescope for multiple stars. We show SSOF's, ability to accurately identify and characterize spectral variability and provide $\sim$2-6x smaller photon-limited errors over the NEID CCF-based pipeline and match the performance of SERVAL, a leading template-based pipeline, using only observed EPRV spectra.

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arXiv2024

Earths within Reach: Evaluation of Strategies for Mitigating Solar Variability using 3.5 years of NEID Sun-as-a-Star Observations

We present the results of Sun-as-a-star observations by the NEID Solar Telescope at WIYN Observatory, spanning January 1, 2021 through June 30, 2024. We identify 117,060 observations which are unlikely to be significantly affected by weather, hardware or major calibration issues. We describe several high-level data products being made available to the community to aid in the interpretation and inter comparisons of NEID solar observations. Solar observations demonstrate excellent performance of NEID, including radial velocity (RV) accuracy and long-term stability of better than $\simeq 0.37$ m s$^{-1}$ over $\simeq 3.5$ years, even though NEID was not originally designed or optimized for daytime observations of the Sun. Currently, intrinsic stellar variability is the primary barrier to detecting Earth-analog planets for most nearby, Sun-like stars. We present a comparison of the effectiveness of several methods proposed to mitigate the effects of solar variability on the Sun's estimated RV. We find that the Scalpels algorithm performs particularly well and substantially reduces the RMS RV of solar spectra from over 2 m s$^{-1}$ to 0.277 m s$^{-1}$. Even when training on a subset of days with NEID solar observations and testing on a held-out sample, the RMS of cleaned RV is 0.34-0.42 m s$^{-1}$. This is significantly better than previous attempts at removing solar variability and suggests that the current generation of EPRV instruments are technically capable of detecting Earth-mass planets orbiting a solar twin if provided with sufficient observing time allocations ($\sim 10^3$ nights of observations).

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arXiv2024

Quiet Please: Detrending Radial Velocity Variations from Stellar Activity with a Physically Motivated Spot Model

For solar-type stars, spots and their associated magnetic regions induce radial velocity perturbations through the Doppler rotation signal and the suppression of convective blueshift -- collectively known as rotation-modulation. We developed the Rotation-Convection (RC) model: a method of detrending and characterizing rotation-modulation, using only cross-correlation functions or 1-dimensional spectra, without the need for continuous high cadence measurements. The RC method uses a simple model for the anomalous radial velocity induced by an active region and has two inputs: stellar flux (or a flux proxy) and the relative radial velocity between strongly and weakly absorbed wavelengths (analogous to the bisector-inverse slope). On NEID solar data (three month baseline), the RC model lowers the amplitude of rotationally-modulated stellar activity to below the meter-per-second level. For the standard star HD 26965, the RC model detrends the activity signal to the meter-per-second level for HARPS, EXPRES, and NEID observations, even though the temporal density and timespan of the observations differs by an order of magnitude between the three datasets. In addition to detrending, the RC model also characterizes the rotation-modulation signal. From comparison with the Solar Dynamics Observatory, we confirmed that the model accurately recovers and separates the rotation and convection radial velocity components. We also mapped the amplitude of the rotation and convection perturbations as a function of height within the stellar atmosphere. Probing stellar atmospheres with our revised spot model will fuel future innovations in stellar activity mitigation, enabling robust exoplanet detection.

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arXiv2024

Utilizing Photometry from Multiple Sources to Mitigate Stellar Variability in Precise Radial Velocities: A Case Study of Kepler-21

We present a new analysis of Kepler-21, the brightest (V = 8.5) Kepler system with a known transiting exoplanet, Kepler-21 b. Kepler-21 b is a radius valley planet ($R = 1.6\pm 0.2 R_{\oplus}$) with an Earth-like composition (8.38$\pm$1.62 g/cc), though its mass and radius fall in the regime of possible "water worlds." We utilize new Keck/HIRES and WIYN/NEID radial velocity (RV) data in conjunction with Kepler and TESS photometry to perform a detailed study of activity mitigation between photometry and RVs. We additionally refine the system parameters, and we utilize Gaia astrometry to place constraints on a long-term RV trend. Our activity analysis affirms the quality of Kepler photometry for removing correlated noise from RVs, despite its temporal distance, though we reveal some cases where TESS may be superior. Using refined orbital parameters and updated composition curves, we rule out a ``water world" scenario for Kepler-21 b, and we identify a long period super-Jupiter planetary candidate, Kepler-21 (c).

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arXiv2024

The Brown Dwarf Kinematics Project (BDKP). VI. Ultracool Dwarf Radial and Rotational Velocities from SDSS/APOGEE High-resolution Spectroscopy

We present precise measurements of radial (RV) and projected rotational ($v\sin{i}$) velocities, effective temperatures, and surface gravities of a sample of 258 M6 to L2 dwarfs with multi-epoch, high-resolution ($λ/Δλ$ = 22500), near-infrared (1.514-1.696 $μ$m) spectroscopic observations reported in the Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE) Data Release 17. The spectra were modeled using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo forward-modeling method which achieved median precisions of $σ_\text{RV}$ = 0.4 km s$^{-1}$ and $σ_{v\sin{i}}$ = 1.1 km s$^{-1}$. One-half of our sample (138 sources) are previously known members of nearby young clusters and moving groups, and we identified three new kinematic members of the Argus or Carina Near moving groups, 2MASS J05402570+2448090, 2MASS J14093200+4138080, and 2MASS J21272531+5553150. Excluding these sources, we find that the majority of our sample has kinematics consistent with the Galactic thin disk, and eleven sources are associated with the intermediate thin/thick disk. The field sample has a velocity dispersion of 38.2$\pm$0.3 km s$^{-1}$, equivalent to an age of 3.30$\pm$0.19 Gyr based on empirical age-velocity dispersion relations; and a median $v\sin{i}$ of 17 km s$^{-1}$. For 172 sources with multi-epoch observations, we identified 37 as having significant radial velocity variations, and determined preliminary orbit parameters for 26 sources with four or more epochs. For 40 sources with photometric variability periods from the literature less than 5 days and $v\sin{i}$ $>$ 20 km s$^{-1}$, we find a decline in projected radii $R\sin{i}$ with age congruent with evolutionary models. Finally, we also present multi-epoch RV and vsini measurements for additional 444 candidate ultracool dwarfs.

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arXiv2024

Trials and Tribulations in the Reanalysis of KELT-24 b: a Case Study for the Importance of Stellar Modeling

We present a new analysis of the KELT-24 system, comprising a well-aligned hot Jupiter, KELT-24~b, and a bright ($V=8.3$), nearby ($d=96.9~\mathrm{pc}$) F-type host star. KELT-24~b was independently discovered by two groups in 2019, with each reporting best-fit stellar parameters that were notably inconsistent. Here, we present three independent analyses of the KELT-24 system, each incorporating a broad range of photometric and spectroscopic data, including eight sectors of TESS photometry and more than 200 new radial velocities (RVs) from MINERVA. Two of these analyses use KELT-24's observed spectral energy distribution (SED) through a direct comparison to stellar evolutionary models, while our third analysis assumes an unknown additional body contributing to the observed broadband photometry and excludes the SED. Ultimately, we find that the models that include the SED are a poor fit to the available data, so we adopt the system parameters derived without it. We also highlight a single transit-like event observed by TESS, deemed likely to be an eclipsing binary bound to KELT-24, that will require follow-up observations to confirm. We discuss the potential of these additional bodies in the KELT-24 system as a possible explanation for the discrepancies between the results of the different modeling approaches, and explore the system for longer-period planets that may be weakly evident in the RV observations. The comprehensive investigations that we present not only increase the fidelity of our understanding of the KELT-24 system, but also serve as a blueprint for future stellar modeling in global analyses of exoplanet systems.

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arXiv2024

The death of Vulcan: NEID reveals the planet candidate orbiting HD 26965 is stellar activity

We revisit the long-studied radial velocity (RV) target HD26965 using recent observations from the NASA-NSF 'NEID' precision Doppler facility. Leveraging a suite of classical activity indicators, combined with line-by-line RV analyses, we demonstrate that the claimed 45-day signal previously identified as a planet candidate is most likely an activity-induced signal. Correlating the bulk (spectrally-averaged) RV with canonical line activity indicators confirms a multi-day 'lag' between the observed activity indicator time series and the measured RV. When accounting for this lag, we show that much of the observed RV signal can be removed by a linear detrending of the data. Investigating activity at the line-by-line level, we find a depth-dependent correlation between individual line RVs and the bulk RVs, further indicative of periodic suppression of convective blueshift causing the observed RV variability, rather than an orbiting planet. We conclude that the combined evidence of the activity correlations and depth dependence is consistent with a radial velocity signature dominated by a rotationally-modulated activity signal at a period of $\sim$42 days. We hypothesize that this activity signature is due to a combination of spots and convective blueshift suppression. The tools applied in our analysis are broadly applicable to other stars, and could help paint a more comprehensive picture of the manifestations of stellar activity in future Doppler RV surveys.

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arXiv2023

The Extreme Stellar-Signals Project III. Combining Solar Data from HARPS, HARPS-N, EXPRES, and NEID

We present an analysis of Sun-as-a-star observations from four different high-resolution, stabilized spectrographs -- HARPS, HARPS-N, EXPRES, and NEID. With simultaneous observations of the Sun from four different instruments, we are able to gain insight into the radial velocity precision and accuracy delivered by each of these instruments and isolate instrumental systematics that differ from true astrophysical signals. With solar observations, we can completely characterize the expected Doppler shift contributed by orbiting Solar System bodies and remove them. This results in a data set with measured velocity variations that purely trace flows on the solar surface. Direct comparisons of the radial velocities measured by each instrument show remarkable agreement with residual intra-day scatter of only 15-30 cm/s. This shows that current ultra-stabilized instruments have broken through to a new level of measurement precision that reveals stellar variability with high fidelity and detail. We end by discussing how radial velocities from different instruments can be combined to provide powerful leverage for testing techniques to mitigate stellar signals.

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