arXiv subjects

Cynthia Rudin

Publications and source records attributed to Cynthia Rudin.

At least 109 records · Page 6Linked to original sources

arXiv2021

A Holistic Approach to Interpretability in Financial Lending: Models, Visualizations, and Summary-Explanations

Lending decisions are usually made with proprietary models that provide minimally acceptable explanations to users. In a future world without such secrecy, what decision support tools would one want to use for justified lending decisions? This question is timely, since the economy has dramatically shifted due to a pandemic, and a massive number of new loans will be necessary in the short term. We propose a framework for such decisions, including a globally interpretable machine learning model, an interactive visualization of it, and several types of summaries and explanations for any given decision. The machine learning model is a two-layer additive risk model, which resembles a two-layer neural network, but is decomposable into subscales. In this model, each node in the first (hidden) layer represents a meaningful subscale model, and all of the nonlinearities are transparent. Our online visualization tool allows exploration of this model, showing precisely how it came to its conclusion. We provide three types of explanations that are simpler than, but consistent with, the global model: case-based reasoning explanations that use neighboring past cases, a set of features that were the most important for the model's prediction, and summary-explanations that provide a customized sparse explanation for any particular lending decision made by the model. Our framework earned the FICO recognition award for the Explainable Machine Learning Challenge, which was the first public challenge in the domain of explainable machine learning.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Causal Rule Sets for Identifying Subgroups with Enhanced Treatment Effect

A key question in causal inference analyses is how to find subgroups with elevated treatment effects. This paper takes a machine learning approach and introduces a generative model, Causal Rule Sets (CRS), for interpretable subgroup discovery. A CRS model uses a small set of short decision rules to capture a subgroup where the average treatment effect is elevated. We present a Bayesian framework for learning a causal rule set. The Bayesian model consists of a prior that favors simple models for better interpretability as well as avoiding overfitting, and a Bayesian logistic regression that captures the likelihood of data, characterizing the relation between outcomes, attributes, and subgroup membership. The Bayesian model has tunable parameters that can characterize subgroups with various sizes, providing users with more flexible choices of models from the \emph{treatment efficient frontier}. We find maximum a posteriori models using iterative discrete Monte Carlo steps in the joint solution space of rules sets and parameters. To improve search efficiency, we provide theoretically grounded heuristics and bounding strategies to prune and confine the search space. Experiments show that the search algorithm can efficiently recover true underlying subgroups. We apply CRS on public and real-world datasets from domains where interpretability is indispensable. We compare CRS with state-of-the-art rule-based subgroup discovery models. Results show that CRS achieved consistently competitive performance on datasets from various domains, represented by high treatment efficient frontiers.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2021

Playing Codenames with Language Graphs and Word Embeddings

Although board games and video games have been studied for decades in artificial intelligence research, challenging word games remain relatively unexplored. Word games are not as constrained as games like chess or poker. Instead, word game strategy is defined by the players' understanding of the way words relate to each other. The word game Codenames provides a unique opportunity to investigate common sense understanding of relationships between words, an important open challenge. We propose an algorithm that can generate Codenames clues from the language graph BabelNet or from any of several embedding methods - word2vec, GloVe, fastText or BERT. We introduce a new scoring function that measures the quality of clues, and we propose a weighting term called DETECT that incorporates dictionary-based word representations and document frequency to improve clue selection. We develop BabelNet-Word Selection Framework (BabelNet-WSF) to improve BabelNet clue quality and overcome the computational barriers that previously prevented leveraging language graphs for Codenames. Extensive experiments with human evaluators demonstrate that our proposed innovations yield state-of-the-art performance, with up to 102.8% improvement in precision@2 in some cases. Overall, this work advances the formal study of word games and approaches for common sense language understanding.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2021

Ethical Implementation of Artificial Intelligence to Select Embryos in In Vitro Fertilization

AI has the potential to revolutionize many areas of healthcare. Radiology, dermatology, and ophthalmology are some of the areas most likely to be impacted in the near future, and they have received significant attention from the broader research community. But AI techniques are now also starting to be used in in vitro fertilization (IVF), in particular for selecting which embryos to transfer to the woman. The contribution of AI to IVF is potentially significant, but must be done carefully and transparently, as the ethical issues are significant, in part because this field involves creating new people. We first give a brief introduction to IVF and review the use of AI for embryo selection. We discuss concerns with the interpretation of the reported results from scientific and practical perspectives. We then consider the broader ethical issues involved. We discuss in detail the problems that result from the use of black-box methods in this context and advocate strongly for the use of interpretable models. Importantly, there have been no published trials of clinical effectiveness, a problem in both the AI and IVF communities, and we therefore argue that clinical implementation at this point would be premature. Finally, we discuss ways for the broader AI community to become involved to ensure scientifically sound and ethically responsible development of AI in IVF.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2021

IAIA-BL: A Case-based Interpretable Deep Learning Model for Classification of Mass Lesions in Digital Mammography

Interpretability in machine learning models is important in high-stakes decisions, such as whether to order a biopsy based on a mammographic exam. Mammography poses important challenges that are not present in other computer vision tasks: datasets are small, confounding information is present, and it can be difficult even for a radiologist to decide between watchful waiting and biopsy based on a mammogram alone. In this work, we present a framework for interpretable machine learning-based mammography. In addition to predicting whether a lesion is malignant or benign, our work aims to follow the reasoning processes of radiologists in detecting clinically relevant semantic features of each image, such as the characteristics of the mass margins. The framework includes a novel interpretable neural network algorithm that uses case-based reasoning for mammography. Our algorithm can incorporate a combination of data with whole image labelling and data with pixel-wise annotations, leading to better accuracy and interpretability even with a small number of images. Our interpretable models are able to highlight the classification-relevant parts of the image, whereas other methods highlight healthy tissue and confounding information. Our models are decision aids, rather than decision makers, aimed at better overall human-machine collaboration. We do not observe a loss in mass margin classification accuracy over a black box neural network trained on the same data.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

There Once Was a Really Bad Poet, It Was Automated but You Didn't Know It

Limerick generation exemplifies some of the most difficult challenges faced in poetry generation, as the poems must tell a story in only five lines, with constraints on rhyme, stress, and meter. To address these challenges, we introduce LimGen, a novel and fully automated system for limerick generation that outperforms state-of-the-art neural network-based poetry models, as well as prior rule-based poetry models. LimGen consists of three important pieces: the Adaptive Multi-Templated Constraint algorithm that constrains our search to the space of realistic poems, the Multi-Templated Beam Search algorithm which searches efficiently through the space, and the probabilistic Storyline algorithm that provides coherent storylines related to a user-provided prompt word. The resulting limericks satisfy poetic constraints and have thematically coherent storylines, which are sometimes even funny (when we are lucky).

cs.CL↗

arXiv2021

Regulating Greed Over Time in Multi-Armed Bandits

In retail, there are predictable yet dramatic time-dependent patterns in customer behavior, such as periodic changes in the number of visitors, or increases in customers just before major holidays. The current paradigm of multi-armed bandit analysis does not take these known patterns into account. This means that for applications in retail, where prices are fixed for periods of time, current bandit algorithms will not suffice. This work provides a remedy that takes the time-dependent patterns into account, and we show how this remedy is implemented for the UCB, $\varepsilon$-greedy, and UCB-L algorithms, and also through a new policy called the variable arm pool algorithm. In the corrected methods, exploitation (greed) is regulated over time, so that more exploitation occurs during higher reward periods, and more exploration occurs in periods of low reward. In order to understand why regret is reduced with the corrected methods, we present a set of bounds that provide insight into why we would want to exploit during periods of high reward, and discuss the impact on regret. Our proposed methods perform well in experiments, and were inspired by a high-scoring entry in the Exploration and Exploitation 3 contest using data from Yahoo$!$ Front Page. That entry heavily used time-series methods to regulate greed over time, which was substantially more effective than other contextual bandit methods.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2021

FLAME: A Fast Large-scale Almost Matching Exactly Approach to Causal Inference

A classical problem in causal inference is that of matching, where treatment units need to be matched to control units based on covariate information. In this work, we propose a method that computes high quality almost-exact matches for high-dimensional categorical datasets. This method, called FLAME (Fast Large-scale Almost Matching Exactly), learns a distance metric for matching using a hold-out training data set. In order to perform matching efficiently for large datasets, FLAME leverages techniques that are natural for query processing in the area of database management, and two implementations of FLAME are provided: the first uses SQL queries and the second uses bit-vector techniques. The algorithm starts by constructing matches of the highest quality (exact matches on all covariates), and successively eliminates variables in order to match exactly on as many variables as possible, while still maintaining interpretable high-quality matches and balance between treatment and control groups. We leverage these high quality matches to estimate conditional average treatment effects (CATEs). Our experiments show that FLAME scales to huge datasets with millions of observations where existing state-of-the-art methods fail, and that it achieves significantly better performance than other matching methods.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2021

Towards Practical Lipschitz Bandits

Stochastic Lipschitz bandit algorithms balance exploration and exploitation, and have been used for a variety of important task domains. In this paper, we present a framework for Lipschitz bandit methods that adaptively learns partitions of context- and arm-space. Due to this flexibility, the algorithm is able to efficiently optimize rewards and minimize regret, by focusing on the portions of the space that are most relevant. In our analysis, we link tree-based methods to Gaussian processes. In light of our analysis, we design a novel hierarchical Bayesian model for Lipschitz bandit problems. Our experiments show that our algorithms can achieve state-of-the-art performance in challenging real-world tasks such as neural network hyperparameter tuning.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2020

Concept Whitening for Interpretable Image Recognition

What does a neural network encode about a concept as we traverse through the layers? Interpretability in machine learning is undoubtedly important, but the calculations of neural networks are very challenging to understand. Attempts to see inside their hidden layers can either be misleading, unusable, or rely on the latent space to possess properties that it may not have. In this work, rather than attempting to analyze a neural network posthoc, we introduce a mechanism, called concept whitening (CW), to alter a given layer of the network to allow us to better understand the computation leading up to that layer. When a concept whitening module is added to a CNN, the axes of the latent space are aligned with known concepts of interest. By experiment, we show that CW can provide us a much clearer understanding for how the network gradually learns concepts over layers. CW is an alternative to a batch normalization layer in that it normalizes, and also decorrelates (whitens) the latent space. CW can be used in any layer of the network without hurting predictive performance.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Cryo-ZSSR: multiple-image super-resolution based on deep internal learning

Single-particle cryo-electron microscopy (cryo-EM) is an emerging imaging modality capable of visualizing proteins and macro-molecular complexes at near-atomic resolution. The low electron-doses used to prevent sample radiation damage, result in images where the power of the noise is 100 times greater than the power of the signal. To overcome the low-SNRs, hundreds of thousands of particle projections acquired over several days of data collection are averaged in 3D to determine the structure of interest. Meanwhile, recent image super-resolution (SR) techniques based on neural networks have shown state of the art performance on natural images. Building on these advances, we present a multiple-image SR algorithm based on deep internal learning designed specifically to work under low-SNR conditions. Our approach leverages the internal image statistics of cryo-EM movies and does not require training on ground-truth data. When applied to a single-particle dataset of apoferritin, we show that the resolution of 3D structures obtained from SR micrographs can surpass the limits imposed by the imaging system. Our results indicate that the combination of low magnification imaging with image SR has the potential to accelerate cryo-EM data collection without sacrificing resolution.

eess.IV↗

arXiv2020

A Theory of Statistical Inference for Ensuring the Robustness of Scientific Results

Inference is the process of using facts we know to learn about facts we do not know. A theory of inference gives assumptions necessary to get from the former to the latter, along with a definition for and summary of the resulting uncertainty. Any one theory of inference is neither right nor wrong, but merely an axiom that may or may not be useful. Each of the many diverse theories of inference can be valuable for certain applications. However, no existing theory of inference addresses the tendency to choose, from the range of plausible data analysis specifications consistent with prior evidence, those that inadvertently favor one's own hypotheses. Since the biases from these choices are a growing concern across scientific fields, and in a sense the reason the scientific community was invented in the first place, we introduce a new theory of inference designed to address this critical problem. We introduce hacking intervals, which are the range of a summary statistic one may obtain given a class of possible endogenous manipulations of the data. Hacking intervals require no appeal to hypothetical data sets drawn from imaginary superpopulations. A scientific result with a small hacking interval is more robust to researcher manipulation than one with a larger interval, and is often easier to interpret than a classical confidence interval. Some versions of hacking intervals turn out to be equivalent to classical confidence intervals, which means they may also provide a more intuitive and potentially more useful interpretation of classical confidence intervals.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2020

Adaptive Hyper-box Matching for Interpretable Individualized Treatment Effect Estimation

We propose a matching method for observational data that matches units with others in unit-specific, hyper-box-shaped regions of the covariate space. These regions are large enough that many matches are created for each unit and small enough that the treatment effect is roughly constant throughout. The regions are found as either the solution to a mixed integer program, or using a (fast) approximation algorithm. The result is an interpretable and tailored estimate of a causal effect for each unit.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2020

PULSE: Self-Supervised Photo Upsampling via Latent Space Exploration of Generative Models

The primary aim of single-image super-resolution is to construct high-resolution (HR) images from corresponding low-resolution (LR) inputs. In previous approaches, which have generally been supervised, the training objective typically measures a pixel-wise average distance between the super-resolved (SR) and HR images. Optimizing such metrics often leads to blurring, especially in high variance (detailed) regions. We propose an alternative formulation of the super-resolution problem based on creating realistic SR images that downscale correctly. We present an algorithm addressing this problem, PULSE (Photo Upsampling via Latent Space Exploration), which generates high-resolution, realistic images at resolutions previously unseen in the literature. It accomplishes this in an entirely self-supervised fashion and is not confined to a specific degradation operator used during training, unlike previous methods (which require supervised training on databases of LR-HR image pairs). Instead of starting with the LR image and slowly adding detail, PULSE traverses the high-resolution natural image manifold, searching for images that downscale to the original LR image. This is formalized through the "downscaling loss," which guides exploration through the latent space of a generative model. By leveraging properties of high-dimensional Gaussians, we restrict the search space to guarantee realistic outputs. PULSE thereby generates super-resolved images that both are realistic and downscale correctly. We show proof of concept of our approach in the domain of face super-resolution (i.e., face hallucination). We also present a discussion of the limitations and biases of the method as currently implemented with an accompanying model card with relevant metrics. Our method outperforms state-of-the-art methods in perceptual quality at higher resolutions and scale factors than previously possible.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2020

Bandits for BMO Functions

We study the bandit problem where the underlying expected reward is a Bounded Mean Oscillation (BMO) function. BMO functions are allowed to be discontinuous and unbounded, and are useful in modeling signals with infinities in the do-main. We develop a toolset for BMO bandits, and provide an algorithm that can achieve poly-log $δ$-regret -- a regret measured against an arm that is optimal after removing a $δ$-sized portion of the arm space.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Almost-Matching-Exactly for Treatment Effect Estimation under Network Interference

We propose a matching method that recovers direct treatment effects from randomized experiments where units are connected in an observed network, and units that share edges can potentially influence each others' outcomes. Traditional treatment effect estimators for randomized experiments are biased and error prone in this setting. Our method matches units almost exactly on counts of unique subgraphs within their neighborhood graphs. The matches that we construct are interpretable and high-quality. Our method can be extended easily to accommodate additional unit-level covariate information. We show empirically that our method performs better than other existing methodologies for this problem, while producing meaningful, interpretable results.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2020

Variable Importance Clouds: A Way to Explore Variable Importance for the Set of Good Models

Variable importance is central to scientific studies, including the social sciences and causal inference, healthcare, and other domains. However, current notions of variable importance are often tied to a specific predictive model. This is problematic: what if there were multiple well-performing predictive models, and a specific variable is important to some of them and not to others? In that case, we may not be able to tell from a single well-performing model whether a variable is always important in predicting the outcome. Rather than depending on variable importance for a single predictive model, we would like to explore variable importance for all approximately-equally-accurate predictive models. This work introduces the concept of a variable importance cloud, which maps every variable to its importance for every good predictive model. We show properties of the variable importance cloud and draw connections to other areas of statistics. We introduce variable importance diagrams as a projection of the variable importance cloud into two dimensions for visualization purposes. Experiments with criminal justice, marketing data, and image classification tasks illustrate how variables can change dramatically in importance for approximately-equally-accurate predictive models

stat.ML↗

arXiv2019

This Looks Like That: Deep Learning for Interpretable Image Recognition

When we are faced with challenging image classification tasks, we often explain our reasoning by dissecting the image, and pointing out prototypical aspects of one class or another. The mounting evidence for each of the classes helps us make our final decision. In this work, we introduce a deep network architecture -- prototypical part network (ProtoPNet), that reasons in a similar way: the network dissects the image by finding prototypical parts, and combines evidence from the prototypes to make a final classification. The model thus reasons in a way that is qualitatively similar to the way ornithologists, physicians, and others would explain to people on how to solve challenging image classification tasks. The network uses only image-level labels for training without any annotations for parts of images. We demonstrate our method on the CUB-200-2011 dataset and the Stanford Cars dataset. Our experiments show that ProtoPNet can achieve comparable accuracy with its analogous non-interpretable counterpart, and when several ProtoPNets are combined into a larger network, it can achieve an accuracy that is on par with some of the best-performing deep models. Moreover, ProtoPNet provides a level of interpretability that is absent in other interpretable deep models.

cs.LG↗