arXiv subjects

Cyrill Scheidegger

Publications and source records attributed to Cyrill Scheidegger.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Covariate Adjustment for the Win Odds: Application to Cardiovascular Outcomes Trials

Covariate adjustment can enhance precision and power in clinical trials, yet its application to the win odds remains unclear. The win odds is an extension of the win ratio that counts ties as half a win for the treatment and the control group, respectively. In their original form, both the win ratio and the win odds rely on comparing each individual from the treatment group to each individual from the control group in a pairwise manner, and count the number of wins, losses, and ties from these pairwise comparisons. A priori, it is not clear how covariate adjustment can be implemented for the win odds. To address this, we establish a connection between the win odds and the marginal probabilistic index, a measure for which covariate adjustment theory is well-developed. Using this connection, we show how covariate adjustment for the win odds is possible, leading to potentially more precise estimators and larger power as compared to the unadjusted win odds. We present the underlying theory for covariate adjustment for the win odds in an accessible way and apply the method on synthetic data based on the CANTOS trial (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT01327846) characteristics, on a subset of the HF-ACTION trial data (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT00047437), and on simulated data to study the operating characteristics of the method. We observe that there is indeed a potential gain in power when the win odds is adjusted for baseline covariates if the baseline covariates are prognostic for the outcome. This comes at the cost of a slight inflation of the type I error rate for small sample sizes.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

Machine-Learning-Powered Specification Testing in Linear Instrumental Variable Models

The linear instrumental variable (IV) model is widely used in observational studies, yet its validity hinges on strong assumptions. Classical specification tests such as the Sargan-Hansen J test are limited to overidentified settings and are therefore not applicable in the common just-identified case, where the number of instruments is equal to the number of endogenous variables. We propose a novel test for the well-specification of the linear IV model under the assumption that the structural error is mean independent of the instruments. This assumption enables specification testing even in the just-identified setting. Our approach uses the idea of residual prediction: if the two-stage least squares residuals can be predicted from the instruments better than chance, this indicates misspecification. The resulting test employs sample splitting and a user-chosen machine learning method, and we show asymptotic type I error control and consistency against a broad class of alternatives. We further show how the proposed testing principle can be adapted to settings with weak or many instruments via an Anderson-Rubin-type inversion, thereby substantially extending the applicability. The tests accommodate heteroskedasticity- and cluster-robust inference and are implemented in the R package RPIV and the ivmodels software package for Python.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

Inference for Heterogeneous Treatment Effects with Efficient Instruments and Machine Learning

We introduce a new instrumental variable (IV) estimator for heterogeneous treatment effects in the presence of endogeneity. Our estimator is based on double/debiased machine learning (DML) and uses efficient machine learning instruments (MLIV) and kernel smoothing. We prove consistency and asymptotic normality of our estimator and also construct confidence sets that are more robust towards weak IV. Along the way, we also provide an accessible discussion of the corresponding estimator for the homogeneous treatment effect with efficient machine learning instruments. The methods are evaluated on synthetic and real datasets and an implementation is made available in the R package IVDML.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

Spectrally Deconfounded Random Forests

We introduce a modification of Random Forests to estimate functions when unobserved confounding variables are present. The technique is tailored for high-dimensional settings with many observed covariates. We use spectral deconfounding techniques to minimize a deconfounded version of the least squares objective, resulting in the Spectrally Deconfounded Random Forests (SDForests). We show how the omitted variable bias gets small given some assumptions. We compare the performance of SDForests to classical Random Forests in a simulation study and a semi-synthetic setting using single-cell gene expression data. Empirical results suggest that SDForests outperform classical Random Forests in estimating the direct regression function, even if the theoretical assumptions, requiring linear and dense confounding, are not perfectly met, and that SDForests have comparable performance in the non-confounded case.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2023

Spectral Deconfounding for High-Dimensional Sparse Additive Models

Many high-dimensional data sets suffer from hidden confounding which affects both the predictors and the response of interest. In such situations, standard regression methods or algorithms lead to biased estimates. This paper substantially extends previous work on spectral deconfounding for high-dimensional linear models to the nonlinear setting and with this, establishes a proof of concept that spectral deconfounding is valid for general nonlinear models. Concretely, we propose an algorithm to estimate high-dimensional sparse additive models in the presence of hidden dense confounding: arguably, this is a simple yet practically useful nonlinear scope. We prove consistency and convergence rates for our method and evaluate it on synthetic data and a genetic data set.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2021

The Weighted Generalised Covariance Measure

We introduce a new test for conditional independence which is based on what we call the weighted generalised covariance measure (WGCM). It is an extension of the recently introduced generalised covariance measure (GCM). To test the null hypothesis of X and Y being conditionally independent given Z, our test statistic is a weighted form of the sample covariance between the residuals of nonlinearly regressing X and Y on Z. We propose different variants of the test for both univariate and multivariate X and Y . We give conditions under which the tests yield the correct type I error rate. Finally, we compare our novel tests to the original GCM using simulation and on real data sets. Typically, our tests have power against a wider class of alternatives compared to the GCM. This comes at the cost of having less power against alternatives for which the GCM already works well. In the special case of binary or categorical X and Y , one of our tests has power against all alternatives.

stat.ME↗