arXiv subjects

D. A. Biesecker

Publications and source records attributed to D. A. Biesecker.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

NASA/NOAA MOU Annex Final Report: Evaluating Model Advancements for Predicting CME Arrival Time

The purpose of this project was to assess improvements in CME arrival time forecasts at Earth using the Air Force Data Assimilative Photospheric Flux Transport (ADAPT) model driven by data from the Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) ground observatories. These outputs are then fed into the coupled Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) - ENLIL model and compared to an operational version of WSA-ENLIL (without ADAPT). SWPC selected a set of 38 historical events over the period of five years from 2012--2014 (33 events) and 2017--2019 (5 events). The overall three-year project consisted of multiple simulation validation studies for the entire event set (1292 simulations): (a) benchmark single map (operational version prior to May 2019) (b) time-dependent sequence of GONG maps driving WSA-ENLIL with 4 different model settings (c) single test simulation of a time-dependent sequence of GONG maps driving ADAPT-WSA-ENLIL (d) single GONG map driving ADAPT-WSA-ENLIL (e) time-dependent sequence of GONG maps driving ADAPT-WSA-ENLIL. We report that for all 38 events, within each model version/settings combination, the CME arrival time error decreased by 0.2 to 0.9 hours when using a sequence of time-dependent zero-point corrected magnetograms compared to using single magnetogram input. Overall, for all events, when using the older uncorrected magnetograms, the CME arrival time error increased for all new model versions/settings combination compared to the benchmark. Notably for the 5 events in the period 2017--2019 when more reliable zero-point corrected magnetograms were available, the ADAPT-WSA-ENLIL (median arrival realization) CME arrival time error decreased against all benchmarks. In this report we also discuss replicating the operational model, challenges in detecting CME arrival in simulations, and comparing zero-point corrected and uncorrected magnetogram inputs.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2013

From Predicting Solar Activity to Forecasting Space Weather: Practical Examples of Research-to-Operations and Operations-to-Research

The successful transition of research to operations (R2O) and operations to research (O2R) requires, above all, interaction between the two communities. We explore the role that close interaction and ongoing communication played in the successful fielding of three separate developments: an observation platform, a numerical model, and a visualization and specification tool. Additionally, we will examine how these three pieces came together to revolutionize interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) arrival forecasts. A discussion of the importance of education and training in ensuring a positive outcome from R2O activity follows. We describe efforts by the meteorological community to make research results more accessible to forecasters and the applicability of these efforts to the transfer of space-weather research.We end with a forecaster "wish list" for R2O transitions. Ongoing, two-way communication between the research and operations communities is the thread connecting it all.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2003

Ultraviolet spectroscopy of narrow coronal mass ejections

We present Ultraviolet Coronagraph Spectrometer (UVCS) observations of 5 narrow coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that were among 15 narrow CMEs originally selected by Gilbert et al. (2001). Two events (1999 March 27, April 15) were "structured", i.e. in white light data they exhibited well defined interior features, and three (1999 May 9, May 21, June 3) were "unstructured", i.e. appeared featureless. In UVCS data the events were seen as 4-13 deg wide enhancements of the strongest coronal lines HI Ly-alpha and OVI (1032,1037 A). We derived electron densities for several of the events from the Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO) C2 white light observations. They are comparable to or smaller than densities inferred for other CMEs. We modeled the observable properties of examples of the structured (1999 April 15) and unstructured (1999 May 9) narrow CMEs at different heights in the corona between 1.5 and 2 R(Sun). The derived electron temperatures, densities and outflow speeds are similar for those two types of ejections. They were compared with properties of polar coronal jets and other CMEs. We discuss different scenarios of narrow CME formation either as a jet formed by reconnection onto open field lines or CME ejected by expansion of closed field structures. Overall, we conclude that the existing observations do not definitively place the narrow CMEs into the jet or the CME picture, but the acceleration of the 1999 April 15 event resembles acceleration seen in many CMEs, rather than constant speeds or deceleration observed in jets.

astro-ph↗