arXiv subjects

D. M. Russell

Publications and source records attributed to D. M. Russell.

At least 91 records · Page 5Linked to original sources

arXiv2014

The radio/X-ray domain of black hole X-ray binaries at the lowest radio luminosities

[Abridged] We report on deep, coordinated radio and X-ray observations of the black hole X-ray binary XTE J1118+480 in quiescence. The source was observed with the Karl G. Jansky Very Large Array for a total of 17.5 hrs at 5.3 GHz, yielding a 4.8 \pm 1.4 microJy radio source at a position consistent with the binary system. At a distance of 1.7 kpc, this corresponds to an integrated radio luminosity between 4-8E+25 erg/s, depending on the spectral index. This is the lowest radio luminosity measured for any accreting black hole to date. Simultaneous observations with the Chandra X-ray Telescope detected XTE J1118+480 at 1.2E-14 erg/s/cm^2 (1-10 keV), corresponding to an Eddington ratio of ~4E-9 for a 7.5 solar mass black hole. Combining these new measurements with data from the 2005 and 2000 outbursts available in the literature, we find evidence for a relationship of the form ellr=alpha+beta*ellx (where ell denotes logarithmic luminosities), with beta=0.72\pm0.09. XTE J1118+480 is thus the third system, together with GX339-4 and V404 Cyg, for which a tight, non-linear radio/X-ray correlation has been reported over more than 5 dex in ellx. We then perform a clustering and linear regression analysis on what is arguably the most up-to-date collection of coordinated radio and X-ray luminosity measurements from quiescent and hard state black hole X-ray binaries, including 24 systems. At variance with previous results, a two-cluster description is statistically preferred only for random errors <=0.3 dex in both ellr and ellx, a level which we argue can be easily reached when the known spectral shape/distance uncertainties and intrinsic variability are accounted for. A linear regression analysis performed on the whole data set returns a best-fitting slope beta=0.61\pm0.03 and intrinsic scatter sigma_0=0.31\pm 0.03 dex.

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arXiv2013

The accretion-ejection coupling in the black hole candidate X-ray binary MAXI J1836-194

We present the results of our quasi-simultaneous radio, sub-mm, infrared, optical and X-ray study of the Galactic black hole candidate X-ray binary MAXI J1836-194 during its 2011 outburst. We consider the full multi-wavelength spectral evolution of the outburst, investigating whether the evolution of the jet spectral break (the transition between optically-thick and optically-thin synchrotron emission) is caused by any specific properties of the accretion flow. Our observations show that the break does not scale with the X-ray luminosity or with the inner radius of the accretion disk, and is instead likely to be set by much more complex processes. We find that the radius of the acceleration zone at the base of the jet decreases from ~10$^6$ gravitational radii during the hard intermediate state to ~10$^3$ gravitational radii as the outburst fades (assuming a black hole mass of 8 M$_{\odot}$), demonstrating that the electrons are accelerated on much larger scales than the radius of the inner accretion disk and that the jet properties change significantly during outburst. From our broadband modelling and high-resolution optical spectra, we argue that early in the outburst, the high-energy synchrotron cooling break was located in the optical band, between $\approx 3.2 \times 10^{14}$ Hz and $4.5 \times 10^{14}$ Hz. We calculate that the jet has a total radiative power of $\approx 3.1 \times 10^{36}$ ergs s$^{-1}$, which is ~6% of the bolometric radiative luminosity at this time. We discuss how this cooling break may evolve during the outburst, and how that evolution dictates the total jet radiative power. Assuming the source is a stellar-mass black hole with canonical state transitions, from the measured flux and peak temperature of the disk component we constrain the source distance to be 4-10 kpc.

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arXiv2013

The evolving polarised jet of black hole candidate Swift J1745-26

Swift J1745-26 is an X-ray binary towards the Galactic Centre that was detected when it went into outburst in September 2012. This source is thought to be one of a growing number of sources that display "failed outbursts", in which the self-absorbed radio jets of the transient source are never fully quenched and the thermal emission from the geometrically-thin inner accretion disk never fully dominates the X-ray flux. We present multifrequency data from the Very Large Array, Australia Telescope Compact Array and Karoo Array Telescope (KAT- 7) radio arrays, spanning the entire period of the outburst. Our rich data set exposes radio emission that displays a high level of large scale variability compared to the X-ray emission and deviations from the standard radio--X-ray correlation that are indicative of an unstable jet and confirm the outburst's transition from the canonical hard state to an intermediate state. We also observe steepening of the spectral index and an increase of the linear polarization to a large fraction (~50%) of the total flux, as well as a rotation of the electric vector position angle. These are consistent with a transformation from a self-absorbed compact jet to optically-thin ejecta -- the first time such a discrete ejection has been observed in a failed outburst -- and may imply a complex magnetic field geometry.

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arXiv2013

Infrared timing with SPICA: Probing the formation of stellar-mass compact object jets in real-time

The time domain remains, in many respects, the least explored of parameter spaces in astronomical studies. The purpose of this article is to encourage the SPICA community to consider the potential of rapid infrared timing observations. The specific example considered is that of variable emission from relativistic jets in compact accreting objects, whose formation and powering mechanisms we still do not understand. Infrared observations have the potential to give us fundamental insight on the conditions required for jet formation in accreting stellar-mass black holes and neutron stars. This is because particle acceleration is thought to be magnetically-driven, and the spectral transition between optically-thin and self-absorbed jet synchrotron radiation lies in the infrared. We review recent observations from WISE showing that we have the capability to measure key physical parameters of the jet, and their time-dependence on rapidly-changing conditions in the accretion flow around the black hole (on timescales of just a few seconds). SPICA will provide a breakthrough in this field because of its sensitivity and broadband coverage, and we detail an example SPICA observation on short (tens of milliseconds) timescales. We believe that SPICA has the potential to make great impact on time domain science, and we discuss some technical requirements that will enable this.

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arXiv2013

Broadband monitoring tracing the evolution of the jet and disk in the black hole candidate X-ray binary MAXI J1659-152

MAXI J1659-152 was discovered on 2010 September 25 as a new X-ray transient, initially identified as a gamma-ray burst, but was later shown to be a new X-ray binary with a black hole as the most likely compact object. Dips in the X-ray light curves have revealed that MAXI J1659-152 is the shortest period black hole candidate identified to date. Here we present the results of a large observing campaign at radio, sub-millimeter, near-infrared (nIR), optical and ultraviolet (UV) wavelengths. We have combined this very rich data set with the available X-ray observations to compile a broadband picture of the evolution of this outburst. We have performed broadband spectral modeling, demonstrating the presence of a spectral break at radio frequencies and a relationship between the radio spectrum and X-ray states. Also, we have determined physical parameters of the accretion disk and put them into context with respect to the other parameters of the binary system. Finally, we have investigated the radio-X-ray and nIR/optical/UV-X-ray correlations up to ~3 years after the outburst onset to examine the link between the jet and the accretion disk, and found that there is no significant jet contribution to the nIR emission when the source is in the soft or intermediate X-ray spectral state, consistent with our detection of the jet break at radio frequencies during these states.

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arXiv2013

Evidence for quiescent synchrotron emission in the black hole X-ray transient Swift J1357.2-0933

We present high time-resolution ULTRACAM optical and NOTCam infrared observations of the edge-on black hole X-ray transient Swift J1357.2-0933. Our data taken in 2012 and 2013 show the system to be at its pre-outburst magnitude and so the system is in quiescence. In contrast to other X-ray transients, the quiescent light curves of Swift J1357.2-0933 do not show the secondary star's ellipsoidal modulation. The optical light curve is dominated by variability with an optical fractional rms of ~35 per cent, a factor of >3 larger than what is observed in other systems at similar time-resolution. Optical flare events lasting 2-10min with amplitudes of up to ~1.5 mag are seen as well as numerous rapid ~0.8 mag dip events which are similar to the optical dips seen in outburst. Similarly the infrared J-band light curve is dominated by variability with a fractional rms of ~21 per cent and flare events lasting 10--30 min with amplitudes of up to ~1.5 mag are observed. The quiescent optical to mid-infrared spectral energy distribution in quiescence is dominated by a non-thermal component with a power--law index of -1.4, (the broad-band rms SED has a similar index) which arises from optically thin synchrotron emission most likely originating in a weak jet; the lack of a peak in the spectral energy distribution rules out advection-dominated models. Using the outburst amplitude--period relation for X-ray transients we estimate the quiescent magnitude of the secondary star to lie in the range V_min=22.7 to 25.6, which when combined with the absolute magnitude of the expected M4.5 V secondary star allows us to constrain to the distance to lie in the range 0.5 to 6.3 kpc. (Abridged)

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arXiv2013

A 420 day X-ray/optical modulation and extended X-ray dips in the short-period transient Swift J1753.5-0127

We have discovered a \sim420d modulation, with associated X-ray dips, in RXTE-ASM/MAXI/Swift-BAT archival light-curves of the short-period (3.2h) black-hole X-ray transient, Swift J1753.5-0127. This modulation only appeared at the end of a gradual rebrightening, approximately 3 years after the initial X-ray outburst in mid-2005. The same periodicity is present in both the 2-20 keV and 15-50 keV bands, but with a \sim0.1 phase offset (\sim40d). Contemporaneous photometry in the optical and near-IR reveals a weaker modulation, but consistent with the X-ray period. There are two substantial X-ray dips (very strong in the 15-50 keV band, weaker at lower energies) that are separated by an interval equal to the X-ray period. This likely indicates two physically separated emitting regions for the hard X-ray and lower energy emission. We interpret this periodicity as a property of the accretion disc, most likely a long-term precession, where the disc edge structure and X-ray irradiation is responsible for the hard X-ray dips and modulation, although we discuss other possible explanations, including Lense-Thirring precession in the inner disc region and spectral state variations. Such precession indicates a very high mass ratio LMXB, which even for a \sim10M_sun BH requires a brown dwarf donor (\sim0.02M_sun), making Swift J1753.5-0127 a possible analogue of millisecond X-ray pulsars.We compare the properties of Swift J1753.5-0127 with other recently discovered short-period transients, which are now forming a separate population of high latitude BH transients located in the galactic halo.

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arXiv2013

An evolving compact jet in the black hole X-ray binary MAXI J1836-194

We report striking changes in the broadband spectrum of the compact jet of the black hole transient MAXI J1836-194 over state transitions during its discovery outburst in 2011. A fading of the optical-infrared (IR) flux occurred as the source entered the hard-intermediate state, followed by a brightening as it returned to the hard state. The optical-IR spectrum was consistent with a power law from optically thin synchrotron emission, except when the X-ray spectrum was softest. By fitting the radio to optical spectra with a broken power law, we constrain the frequency and flux of the optically thick/thin break in the jet synchrotron spectrum. The break gradually shifted to higher frequencies as the source hardened at X-ray energies, from ~ 10^11 to ~ 4 x 10^13 Hz. The radiative jet luminosity integrated over the spectrum appeared to be greatest when the source entered the hard state during the outburst decay (although this is dependent on the high energy cooling break, which is not seen directly), even though the radio flux was fading at the time. The physical process responsible for suppressing and reactivating the jet (neither of which are instantaneous but occur on timescales of weeks) is uncertain, but could arise from the varying inner accretion disk radius regulating the fraction of accreting matter that is channeled into the jet. This provides an unprecedented insight into the connection between inflow and outflow, and has implications for the conditions required for jets to be produced, and hence their launching process.

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arXiv2013

The optical counterpart of the bright X-ray transient Swift J1745-26

We present a 30-day monitoring campaign of the optical counterpart of the bright X-ray transient Swift J1745-26, starting only 19 minutes after the discovery of the source. We observe the system peaking at i' ~17.6 on day 6 (MJD 56192) to then decay at a rate of ~0.04 mag/day. We show that the optical peak occurs at least 3 days later than the hard X-ray (15-50 keV) flux peak. Our measurements result in an outburst amplitude greater than 4.3 magnitudes, which favours an orbital period < 21 h and a companion star with a spectral type later than ~ A0. Spectroscopic observations taken with the GTC-10.4 m telescope reveal a broad (FWHM ~ 1100 km/s), double-peaked H_alpha emission line from which we constrain the radial velocity semi-amplitude of the donor to be K_2 > 250 km/s. The breadth of the line and the observed optical and X-ray fluxes suggest that Swift J1745-26 is a new black hole candidate located closer than ~7 kpc.

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arXiv2013

Observational constraints on the powering mechanism of transient relativistic jets

We revisit the paradigm of the dependency of jet power on black hole spin in accreting black hole systems. In a previous paper we showed that the luminosity of compact jets continuously launched due to accretion onto black holes in X-ray binaries (analogous to those that dominate the kinetic feedback from AGN) do not appear to correlate with reported black hole spin measurements. It is therefore unclear whether extraction of the black hole spin energy is the main driver powering compact jets from accreting black holes. Occasionally, black hole X-ray binaries produce discrete, transient (ballistic) jets for a brief time over accretion state changes. Here, we quantify the dependence of the power of these transient jets (adopting two methods to infer the jet power) on black hole spin, making use of all the available data in the current literature, which includes 12 BHs with both measured spin parameters and radio flares over the state transition. In several sources, regular, well-sampled radio monitoring has shown that the peak radio flux differs dramatically depending on the outburst (up to a factor of 1000) whereas the total power required to energise the flare may only differ by a factor ~< 4 between outbursts. The peak flux is determined by the total energy in the flare and the time over which it is radiated (which can vary considerably between outbursts). Using a Bayesian fitting routine we rule out a statistically significant positive correlation between transient jet power measured using these methods, and current estimates of black hole spin. Even when selecting subsamples of the data that disregard some methods of black hole spin measurement or jet power measurement, no correlation is found in all cases.

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arXiv2012

Jet spectral breaks in black hole X-ray binaries

In X-ray binaries, compact jets are known to commonly radiate at radio to infrared frequencies, whereas at optical to gamma-ray energies, the contribution of the jet is debated. The total luminosity, and hence power of the jet is critically dependent on the position of the break in its spectrum, between optically thick (self-absorbed) and optically thin synchrotron emission. This break, or turnover, has been reported in just one black hole X-ray binary (BHXB) thus far, GX 339-4, and inferred via spectral fitting in two others, A0620-00 and Cyg X-1. Here, we collect a wealth of multiwavelength data from the outbursts of BHXBs during hard X-ray states, in order to search for jet breaks as yet unidentified in their spectral energy distributions. In particular, we report the direct detection of the jet break in the spectrum of V404 Cyg during its 1989 outburst, at nu_b = (1.8 +- 0.3) x 10^14 Hz (1.7 +- 0.2 microns). We increase the number of BHXBs with measured jet breaks from three to eight. Jet breaks are found at frequencies spanning more than two orders of magnitude, from nu_b = (4.5 +- 0.8) x 10^12 Hz for XTE J1118+480 during its 2005 outburst, to nu_b > 4.7 x 10^14 Hz for V4641 Sgr in outburst. A positive correlation between jet break frequency and luminosity is expected theoretically; nu_b \propto L_nu,jet^~0.5 if other parameters are constant. With constraints on the jet break in a total of 12 BHXBs including two quiescent systems, we find a large range of jet break frequencies at similar luminosities and no obvious global relation (but such a relation cannot be ruled out for individual sources). We speculate that different magnetic field strengths and/or different radii of the acceleration zone in the inner regions of the jet are likely to be responsible for the observed scatter between sources. (abridged)

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arXiv2012

Multiwavelength spectral evolution during the 2011 outburst of the very faint X-ray transient Swift J1357.2-0933

We report our multiwavelength study of the 2011 outburst evolution of the newly discovered black hole candidate X-ray binary Swift J1357.2-0933. We analysed the Swift X-ray telescope and Ultraviolet/Optical telescope (UVOT) data taken during the ~7 months duration of the outburst. It displayed a 2-10 keV X-ray peak luminosity of ~1E35(D/1.5 kpc)^2 erg s-1 which classifies the source as a very faint X-ray transient. We found that the X-ray spectrum at the peak was consistent with the source being in the hard state, but it softened with decreasing luminosity, a common behaviour of black holes at low luminosities or returning to quiescence from the hard state. The correlations between the simultaneous X-ray and ultraviolet/optical data suggest a system with a black hole accreting from a viscous disc that is not irradiated. The UVOT filters provide the opportunity to study these correlations up to ultraviolet wavelengths a regime so far unexplored. If the black hole nature is confirmed, Swift J1357.2-0933 would be one of the very few established black hole very-faint X-ray transients.

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arXiv2012

Optical and near-infrared spectroscopy of the black hole GX 339-4: I. A focus on the continuum in the low/hard and high/soft states

The microquasar GX 339-4, known to exhibit powerful compact jets that dominate its radio to near-infrared emission, entered an outburst in 2010 for the fifth time in about fifteen years. An extensive radio to X-ray multi-wavelength campaign was immediately triggered, and we report here on ESO/FORS2+ISAAC optical and near-infrared spectroscopic observations, supported by ATCA radio and RXTE/Swift X-ray quasi-simultaneous data. GX 339-4 was observed at three different epochs, once in the soft state and twice in the hard state. In the soft state, the optical and near-infrared continuum is largely consistent with the Raleigh-Jeans tail of a thermal process. As an explanation, we favour irradiation of the outer accretion disc by its inner regions, enhanced by disc warping. An excess is also present at low frequencies, likely due to a M subgiant companion star. During the first hard state, the optical/near-infrared continuum is well-described by the optically thin synchrotron emission of the compact jet combined with disc irradiation and perhaps another component peaking in the ultraviolet. The spectral break where the jet transits from the optically thick to thin regimes, located below 1.20e14 Hz, is not detected and the extension of the optically thin synchrotron is consistent with the 3-50 keV spectrum. In contrast, the emission during the second hard state is more difficult to understand and points toward a more complex jet continuum. In both cases, the near-infrared continuum is found to be variable at timescales at least as short as 20 s, although these variabilities are smoothed out beyond a few hundred seconds. This implies rapid variations - in flux and frequency - of the location of the spectral break, i.e. dramatic short timescale changes of the physical conditions at the base of the jet, such as the magnetic field and/or the base radius.

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arXiv2012

Disc-jet coupling in the 2009 outburst of the black hole candidate H1743-322

We present an intensive radio and X-ray monitoring campaign on the 2009 outburst of the Galactic black hole candidate X-ray binary H1743-322. With the high angular resolution of the Very Long Baseline Array, we resolve the jet ejection event and measure the proper motions of the jet ejecta relative to the position of the compact core jets detected at the beginning of the outburst. This allows us to accurately couple the moment when the jet ejection event occurred with X-ray spectral and timing signatures. We find that X-ray timing signatures are the best diagnostic of the jet ejection event in this outburst, which occurred as the X-ray variability began to decrease and the Type C quasi-periodic oscillations disappeared from the X-ray power density spectrum. However, this sequence of events does not appear to be replicated in all black hole X-ray binary outbursts, even within an individual source. In our observations of H1743-322, the ejection was contemporaneous with a quenching of the radio emission, prior to the start of the major radio flare. This contradicts previous assumptions that the onset of the radio flare marks the moment of ejection. The jet speed appears to vary between outbursts, with a possible positive correlation with outburst luminosity. The compact core radio jet reactivated on transition to the hard intermediate state at the end of the outburst, and not when the source reached the low hard spectral state. Comparison with the known near-infrared behaviour of the compact jets suggests a gradual evolution of the compact jet power over a few days near the beginning and end of an outburst.

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arXiv2012

The near-infrared counterpart of 4U 1636-53

The optical counterpart of the neutron star X-ray binary and well known X-ray burster, 4U 1636-53 (= 4U 1636-536 = V801 Ara) has been well studied for three decades. However to date, no infrared studies have been reported. Our aims are to identify and investigate the near-infrared (NIR) counterpart of 4U 1636-53. We present deep, K_s-band (2.2 micron) imaging of the region of 4U 1636-53 taken with the Infrared Spectrometer And Array Camera (ISAAC) on the Very Large Telescope. Archival optical and UV data are used to infer the 0.2-2.2 micron spectral energy distribution (SED). One star is located at coordinates alpha =16:40:55.57, delta =-53:45:05.2 (J2000; 1 sigma positional uncertainty of ~ 0.3 arcsec) which is consistent with the known optical position of 4U 1636-53; its magnitude is K_s = 16.14 +- 0.12. This star is also detected in the 2MASS survey in J-band and has a magnitude of J = 16.65 +- 0.22. Under the assumption that the persistent emission is largely unvarying, the 0.4-2.2 micron de-reddened SED can be described by a power law; F_nu propto nu^(1.5 +- 0.3), with some possible curvature (F_nu propto nu^(<= 1.5)) at 0.2-0.4 microns. The SED can be approximated by a blackbody of temperature ~ 27 000 K. This is typical for an active low-mass X-ray binary, and the emission can be explained by the outer regions of a (likely irradiated) accretion disc. We therefore interpret this K_s-band star as the NIR counterpart.

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arXiv2011

Polarimetry of the transient relativistic jet of GRB 110328 / Swift J164449.3+573451

We present deep infrared (Ks band) imaging polarimetry and radio (1.4 and 4.8 GHz) polarimetry of the enigmatic transient Swift J164449.3+573451. This source appears to be a short lived jet phenomenon in a galaxy at redshift z = 0.354, activated by a sudden mass accretion onto the central massive black hole, possibly caused by the tidal disruption of a star. We aim to find evidence for this scenario through linear polarimetry, as linear polarisation is a sensitive probe of jet physics, source geometry and the various mechanisms giving rise to the observed radiation. We find a formal Ks band polarisation measurement of P_lin = 7.4 +/- 3.5 % (including systematic errors). Our radio observations show continuing brightening of the source, which allows sensitive searches for linear polarisation as a function of time. We find no evidence of linear polarisation at radio wavelengths of 1.4 GHz and 4.8 GHz at any epoch, with the most sensitive 3 sigma limits as deep as 2.1%. These upper limits are in agreement with expectations from scenarios in which the radio emission is produced by the interaction of a relativistic jet with a dense circumsource medium. We further demonstrate how the polarisation properties can be used to derive properties of the jet in Swift J164449.3+573451, exploiting the similarities between this source and the afterglows of gamma-ray bursts.

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arXiv2011

Overview of an Extensive Multi-wavelength Study of GX 339-4 during the 2010 Outburst

The microquasar GX 339-4 experienced a new outburst in 2010: it was observed simultaneously at various wavelengths from radio up to soft gamma-rays. We focused on observations that are quasi-simultaneous with those made with the INTEGRAL and RXTE satellites: these were collected in 2010 March-April during our INTEGRAL Target of Opportunity program, and during some of the other INTEGRAL observing programs with GX 339-4 in the field-of-view. X-ray transients are extreme systems that often harbour a black hole, and are known to emit throughout the whole electromagnetic spectrum when in outburst. The goals of our program are to understand the evolution of the physical processes close to the black hole and to study the connections between the accretion and ejection. We analysed radio, NIR, optical, UV, X-ray and soft gamma-ray observations. We studied the source evolution in detail by producing light curves, hardness-intensity diagrams and spectra. We fitted the broadband data with phenomenological, then physical, models to study the emission coming from the distinct components. Based on the energy spectra, the source evolved from the canonical hard state to the canonical soft state. The source showed X-ray spectral variations that were correlated with changes in radio, NIR and optical emission. The bolometric flux increased from 0.8 to 2.9*10^{-8} erg cm^{-2} s^{-1} while the relative flux and contribution of the hot medium globally decreased. Reprocessing in the disc was likely to be strong at the end of our observations. The source showed a behaviour similar to that of previous outbursts, with some small deviations in the hard X-rays parameters' evolution. The radio, NIR and optical emission from jets was detected, and seen to fade as the source softened. The results are discussed within the context of disc and jet models.

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arXiv2011

A variable mid-infrared synchrotron break associated with the compact jet in GX 339-4

Many X-ray binaries remain undetected in the mid-infrared, a regime where emission from their compact jets is likely to dominate. Here, we report the detection of the black hole binary GX 339-4 with the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) during a very bright, hard accretion state in 2010. Combined with a rich contemporaneous multiwavelength dataset, clear spectral curvature is found in the infrared, associated with the peak flux density expected from the compact jet. An optically-thin slope of ~-0.7 and a jet radiative power of >6x10^{35} erg/s (d/8 kpc)^2 are measured. A ~24 h WISE light curve shows dramatic variations in mid-infrared spectral slope on timescales at least as short as the satellite orbital period ~95 mins. There is also significant change during one pair of observations spaced by only 11 s. These variations imply that the spectral break associated with the transition from self-absorbed to optically-thin jet synchrotron radiation must be varying across the full wavelength range of ~3-22 microns that WISE is sensitive to, and more. Based on four-band simultaneous mid-infrared detections, the break lies at ~5x10^{13} Hz in at least two epochs of observation, consistent with a magnetic field B~1.5x10^4 G assuming a single-zone synchrotron emission region. The observed variability implies that either B, or the size of the acceleration zone above the jet base, are being modulated by factors of ~10 on relatively-short timescales.

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