arXiv subjects

D. Odstrcil

Publications and source records attributed to D. Odstrcil.

14 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Advancing Heliophysics and Space Weather Modeling through Open Science

We present a community-wide effort to develop a strategy and action plan to advance heliophysics and space weather modeling through open science. While open science has the potential to enhance the quality and pace of scientific discovery, its application to scientific modeling requires more careful consideration regarding open data and open software guidelines, as scientific models differ significantly from data analysis software. We gathered feedback from modeling teams worldwide through a living survey and discussion sessions at the 2024 Open Science Workshop in College Park, USA, and at the 2025 COSPAR ISWAT Working Meeting in Cape Canaveral, USA. We complement these findings with lessons learned from almost 25 years of experience at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center in enabling open use of models. We identify key roadblocks in current open science practices and guidelines and offer recommendations for future progress across four overlapping themes: open use of models and simulation results, open validation, open development, and open collaboration. An essential outcome of the discussion is the need for model developers and model users to speak with a united voice and promote the role of models in future open science efforts. We introduce a new cross-domain community initiative called the Heliophysics Open Modeling Environment (HOME), which will be integrated as an overarching activity within COSPAR ISWAT. HOME will serve as a platform for modelers and model users to work together, facilitate community modeling, improve the scientific return on modeling investment, and advance understanding, modeling, and forecasting in heliophysics and space weather.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2025

NASA/NOAA MOU Annex Final Report: Evaluating Model Advancements for Predicting CME Arrival Time

The purpose of this project was to assess improvements in CME arrival time forecasts at Earth using the Air Force Data Assimilative Photospheric Flux Transport (ADAPT) model driven by data from the Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) ground observatories. These outputs are then fed into the coupled Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) - ENLIL model and compared to an operational version of WSA-ENLIL (without ADAPT). SWPC selected a set of 38 historical events over the period of five years from 2012--2014 (33 events) and 2017--2019 (5 events). The overall three-year project consisted of multiple simulation validation studies for the entire event set (1292 simulations): (a) benchmark single map (operational version prior to May 2019) (b) time-dependent sequence of GONG maps driving WSA-ENLIL with 4 different model settings (c) single test simulation of a time-dependent sequence of GONG maps driving ADAPT-WSA-ENLIL (d) single GONG map driving ADAPT-WSA-ENLIL (e) time-dependent sequence of GONG maps driving ADAPT-WSA-ENLIL. We report that for all 38 events, within each model version/settings combination, the CME arrival time error decreased by 0.2 to 0.9 hours when using a sequence of time-dependent zero-point corrected magnetograms compared to using single magnetogram input. Overall, for all events, when using the older uncorrected magnetograms, the CME arrival time error increased for all new model versions/settings combination compared to the benchmark. Notably for the 5 events in the period 2017--2019 when more reliable zero-point corrected magnetograms were available, the ADAPT-WSA-ENLIL (median arrival realization) CME arrival time error decreased against all benchmarks. In this report we also discuss replicating the operational model, challenges in detecting CME arrival in simulations, and comparing zero-point corrected and uncorrected magnetogram inputs.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2022

Investigating Mercury's Environment with the Two-Spacecraft BepiColombo Mission

The ESA-JAXA BepiColombo mission will provide simultaneous measurements from two spacecraft, offering an unprecedented opportunity to investigate magnetospheric and exospheric dynamics at Mercury as well as their interactions with the solar wind, radiation, and interplanetary dust. Many scientific instruments onboard the two spacecraft will be completely, or partially devoted to study the near-space environment of Mercury as well as the complex processes that govern it. Many issues remain unsolved even after the MESSENGER mission that ended in 2015. The specific orbits of the two spacecraft, MPO and Mio, and the comprehensive scientific payload allow a wider range of scientific questions to be addressed than those that could be achieved by the individual instruments acting alone, or by previous missions. These joint observations are of key importance because many phenomena in Mercury's environment are highly temporally and spatially variable. Examples of possible coordinated observations are described in this article, analysing the required geometrical conditions, pointing, resolutions and operation timing of different BepiColombo instruments sensors.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2020

Dynamics of the CO+ coma of comet 29P/Schwasmann-Wachmann 1

Comet-centaur 29P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 1 was observed in CO+ emission and contin-uum during 2007-2009 using the 6-m Big Telescope Alt-azimuth at the Special Astrophysical Observatory of the Russian Academy of Sciences. We analysed the morphology of the CO+ and dust coma. The distributions of dust and CO+ ions in the coma are not similar and vary depending on the level of comet activity. CO+ ions are more concentrated towards the nucleus than the dust continuum. The column density of the CO+ was derived and found to vary from 3.7*10^9 to 4.3*10^10 ions cm^-2. The production rate of CO+ was estimated to be from (7.01)*10^24 to (1.15)*10^26 ions s^-1. We discuss possible mechanisms for the ionization of cometary material and show that impact ionization by solar wind particles is probably the main ionization mechanism at large heliocentric distances.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2020

CMEs in the Heliosphere: III. A Statistical Analysis of the Kinematic Properties Derived from Stereoscopic Geometrical Modelling Techniques Applied to CMEs Detected in the Heliosphere from 2008 to 2014 by STEREO/HI-1

We present an analysis of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed by the Heliospheric Imagers (HIs) on board NASA's Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) spacecraft. Between August 2008 and April 2014 we identify 273 CMEs that are observed simultaneously, by the HIs on both spacecraft. For each CME, we track the observed leading edge, as a function of time, from both vantage points, and apply the Stereoscopic Self-Similar Expansion (SSSE) technique to infer their propagation throughout the inner heliosphere. The technique is unable to accurately locate CMEs when their observed leading edge passes between the spacecraft, however, we are able to successfully apply the technique to 151, most of which occur once the spacecraft separation angle exceeds 180 degrees, during solar maximum. We find that using a small half-width to fit the CME can result in observed acceleration to unphysically high velocities and that using a larger half-width can fail to accurately locate the CMEs close to the Sun because the method does not account for CME over-expansion in this region. Observed velocities from SSSE are found to agree well with single-spacecraft (SSEF) analysis techniques applied to the same events. CME propagation directions derived from SSSE and SSEF analysis agree poorly because of known limitations present in the latter. This work was carried out as part of the EU FP7 HELCATS (Heliospheric Cataloguing, Analysis and Techniques Service) project (http://www.helcats-fp7.eu/).

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2020

Energetic Particle Increases Associated with Stream Interaction Regions

The Parker Solar Probe was launched on 2018 August 12 and completed its second orbit on 2019 June 19 with perihelion of 35.7 solar radii. During this time, the Energetic particle Instrument-Hi (EPI-Hi, one of the two energetic particle instruments comprising the Integrated Science Investigation of the Sun, ISOIS) measured seven proton intensity increases associated with stream interaction regions (SIRs), two of which appear to be occurring in the same region corotating with the Sun. The events are relatively weak, with observed proton spectra extending to only a few MeV and lasting for a few days. The proton spectra are best characterized by power laws with indices ranging from -4.3 to -6.5, generally softer than events associated with SIRs observed at 1 au and beyond. Helium spectra were also obtained with similar indices, allowing He/H abundance ratios to be calculated for each event. We find values of 0.016-0.031, which are consistent with ratios obtained previously for corotating interaction region events with fast solar wind < 600 km s-1. Using the observed solar wind data combined with solar wind simulations, we study the solar wind structures associated with these events and identify additional spacecraft near 1 au appropriately positioned to observe the same structures after some corotation. Examination of the energetic particle observations from these spacecraft yields two events that may correspond to the energetic particle increases seen by EPI-Hi earlier.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2019

Seed Population Pre-Conditioning and Acceleration Observed by Parker Solar Probe

A series of solar energetic particle (SEP) events were observed at Parker Solar Probe (PSP) by the Integrated Science Investigation of the Sun (\ISOIS) during the period from April 18, 2019 through April 24, 2019. The PSP spacecraft was located near 0.48 au from the Sun on Parker spiral field lines that projected out to 1 au within $\sim 25^\circ$ of near Earth spacecraft. These SEP events, though small compared to historically large SEP events, were amongst the largest observed thus far in the PSP mission and provide critical information about the space environment inside 1 au during SEP events. During this period the Sun released multiple coronal mass ejections (CMEs). One of these CMEs observed was initiated on April 20, 2019 at 01:25 UTC, and the interplanetary CME (ICME) propagated out and passed over the PSP spacecraft. Observations by the Electromagnetic Fields Investigation (FIELDS) show that the magnetic field structure was mostly radial throughout the passage of the compression region and the plasma that followed, indicating that PSP did not directly observe a flux rope internal to the ICME, consistent with the location of PSP on the ICME flank. Analysis using relativistic electrons observed near Earth by the Electron, Proton and Alpha Monitor (EPAM) on the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) demonstrates the presence of electron seed populations (40--300 keV) during the events observed. The energy spectrum of the \ISOIS~ observed proton seed population below 1 MeV is close to the limit of possible stationary state plasma distributions out of equilibrium. \ISOIS~ observations reveal the \revise{enhancement} of seed populations during the passage of the ICME, which \revise{likely indicates a key part} of the pre-acceleration process that occurs close to the Sun.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2018

CMEs in the Heliosphere: I. A Statistical Analysis of the Observational Properties of CMEs Detected in the Heliosphere from 2007 to 2017 by STEREO/HI-1

We present a statistical analysis of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) imaged by the Heliospheric Imager (HI) instruments aboard NASAs twin-spacecraft STEREO mission between April 2007 and August 2017 for STEREO-A and between April 2007 and September 2014 for STEREO-B. The analysis exploits a catalogue that was generated within the FP7 HELCATS project. Here, we focus on the observational characteristics of CMEs imaged in the heliosphere by the inner (HI-1) cameras. More specifically, in this paper we present distributions of the basic observational parameters - namely occurrence frequency, central position angle (PA) and PA span - derived from nearly 2000 detections of CMEs in the heliosphere by HI-1 on STEREO-A or STEREO-B from the minimum between Solar Cycles 23 and 24 to the maximum of Cycle 24; STEREO-A analysis includes a further 158 CME detections from the descending phase of Cycle 24, by which time communication with STEREO-B had been lost. We compare heliospheric CME characteristics with properties of CMEs observed at coronal altitudes, and with sunspot number. As expected, heliospheric CME rates correlate with sunspot number, and are not inconsistent with coronal rates once instrumental factors/differences in cataloguing philosophy are considered. As well as being more abundant, heliospheric CMEs, like their coronal counterparts, tend to be wider during solar maximum. Our results confirm previous coronagraph analyses suggesting that CME launch sites don't simply migrate to higher latitudes with increasing solar activity. At solar minimum, CMEs tend to be launched from equatorial latitudes while, at maximum, CMEs appear to be launched over a much wider latitude range; this has implications for understanding the CME/solar source association. Our analysis provides some supporting evidence for the systematic dragging of CMEs to lower latitude as they propagate outwards.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2018

Verification of real-time WSA-ENLIL+Cone simulations of CME arrival-time at the CCMC from 2010-2016

The Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA)-ENLIL+Cone model is used extensively in space weather operations world-wide to model CME propagation. As such, it is important to assess its performance. We present validation results of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model installed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) and executed in real-time by the CCMC space weather team. CCMC uses the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model to predict CME arrivals at NASA missions throughout the inner heliosphere. In this work we compare model predicted CME arrival-times to in-situ ICME leading edge measurements at STEREO-A, STEREO-B, and Earth (Wind and ACE) for simulations completed between March 2010-December 2016 (over 1,800 CMEs). We report hit, miss, false alarm, and correct rejection statistics for all three locations. For all predicted CME arrivals, the hit rate is 0.5, and the false alarm rate is 0.1. For the 273 events where the CME was predicted to arrive at Earth, STEREO-A, or STEREO-B, and was actually observed (hit event), the mean absolute arrival-time prediction error was 10.4 +/- 0.9 hours, with a tendency to early prediction error of -4.0 hours. We show the dependence of the arrival-time error on CME input parameters. We also explore the impact of the multi-spacecraft observations used to initialize the model CME inputs by comparing model verification results before and after the STEREO-B communication loss (since September 2014) and STEREO-A sidelobe operations (August 2014-December 2015). There is an increase of 1.7 hours in the CME arrival time error during single, or limited two-viewpoint periods, compared to the three-spacecraft viewpoint period. This trend would apply to a future space weather mission at L5 or L4 as another coronagraph viewpoint to reduce CME arrival time errors compared to a single L1 viewpoint.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2017

A propagation tool to connect remote-sensing observations with in-situ measurements of heliospheric structures

The remoteness of the Sun and the harsh conditions prevailing in the solar corona have so far limited the observational data used in the study of solar physics to remote-sensing observations taken either from the ground or from space. In contrast, the `solar wind laboratory' is directly measured in situ by a fleet of spacecraft measuring the properties of the plasma and magnetic fields at specific points in space. Since 2007, the solar-terrestrial relations observatory (STEREO) has been providing images of the solar wind that flows between the solar corona and spacecraft making in-situ measurements. This has allowed scientists to directly connect processes imaged near the Sun with the subsequent effects measured in the solar wind. This new capability prompted the development of a series of tools and techniques to track heliospheric structures through space. This article presents one of these tools, a web-based interface called the 'Propagation Tool' that offers an integrated research environment to study the evolution of coronal and solar wind structures, such as Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), Corotating Interaction Regions (CIRs) and Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs). These structures can be propagated from the Sun outwards to or alternatively inwards from planets and spacecraft situated in the inner and outer heliosphere. In this paper, we present the global architecture of the tool, discuss some of the assumptions made to simulate the evolution of the structures and show how the tool connects to different databases.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2015

Propagation of the 7 January 2014 CME and Resulting Geomagnetic Non-Event

On 7 January 2014 an X1.2 flare and CME with a radial speed $\approx$2500 km s$^{-1}$ was observed from near an active region close to disk center. This led many forecasters to estimate a rapid arrival at Earth ($\approx$36 hours) and predict a strong geomagnetic storm. However, only a glancing CME arrival was observed at Earth with a transit time of $\approx$49 hours and a $K_{\rm P}$ geomagnetic index of only $3-$. We study the interplanetary propagation of this CME using the ensemble Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA)-ENLIL+Cone model, that allows a sampling of CME parameter uncertainties. We explore a series of simulations to isolate the effects of the background solar wind solution, CME shape, tilt, location, size, and speed, and the results are compared with observed in-situ arrivals at Venus, Earth, and Mars. Our results show that a tilted ellipsoid CME shape improves the initial real-time prediction to better reflect the observed in-situ signatures and the geomagnetic storm strength. CME parameters from the Graduated Cylindrical Shell model used as input to WSA--ENLIL+Cone, along with a tilted ellipsoid cloud shape, improve the arrival-time error by 14.5, 18.7, 23.4 hours for Venus, Earth, and Mars respectively. These results highlight that CME orientation and directionality with respect to observatories play an important role in understanding the propagation of this CME, and for forecasting other glancing CME arrivals. This study also demonstrates the importance of three-dimensional CME fitting made possible by multiple viewpoint imaging.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2015

Ensemble modeling of CMEs using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model

Ensemble modeling of CMEs provides a probabilistic forecast of CME arrival time which includes an estimation of arrival time uncertainty from the spread and distribution of predictions and forecast confidence in the likelihood of CME arrival. The real-time ensemble modeling of CME propagation uses the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model installed at the CCMC and executed in real-time. The current implementation evaluates the sensitivity of WSA-ENLIL+Cone model simulations of CME propagation to initial CME parameters. We discuss the results of real-time ensemble simulations for a total of 35 CME events between January 2013 - July 2014. For the 17 events where the CME was predicted to arrive at Earth, the mean absolute arrival time prediction error was 12.3 hours, which is comparable to the errors reported in other studies. For predictions of CME arrival at Earth the correct rejection rate is 62% and the false-alarm rate is 38%. The arrival time was within the range of the ensemble arrival predictions for 8 out of 17 events. The Brier Score for CME arrival predictions is 0.15 (where 1 is a perfect forecast), indicating that on average, the predicted likelihood of CME arrival is fairly accurate. The reliability of ensemble CME arrival predictions is heavily dependent on the initial distribution of CME input parameters, particularly the median and spread. Preliminary analysis of the probabilistic forecasts suggests undervariability, indicating that these ensembles do not sample a wide enough spread in CME input parameters. Prediction errors can also arise from ambient model parameters, the accuracy of the solar wind background derived from coronal maps, or other model limitations. Finally, predictions of the Kp geomagnetic index differ from observed values by less than one for 11 out of 17 of the ensembles and Kp prediction errors computed from the mean predicted Kp show a mean absolute error of 1.3.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2013

Comparative Study of MHD Modeling of the Background Solar Wind

Knowledge about the background solar wind plays a crucial role in the framework of space weather forecasting. In-situ measurements of the background solar wind are only available for a few points in the heliosphere where spacecraft are located, therefore we have to rely on heliospheric models to derive the distribution of solar wind parameters in interplanetary space. We test the performance of different solar wind models, namely Magnetohydrodynamic Algorithm outside a Sphere/ENLIL (MAS/ENLIL), Wang-Sheeley-Arge/ENLIL (WSA/ENLIL), and MAS/MAS, by comparing model results with in-situ measurements from spacecraft located at 1 AU distance to the Sun (ACE, Wind). To exclude the influence of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs), we chose the year 2007 as a time period with low solar activity for our comparison. We found that the general structure of the background solar wind is well reproduced by all models. The best model results were obtained for the parameter solar wind speed. However, the predicted arrival times of high-speed solar wind streams have typical uncertainties of the order of about one day. Comparison of model runs with synoptic magnetic maps from different observatories revealed that the choice of the synoptic map significantly affects the model performance.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2012

Multi-point shock and flux rope analysis of multiple interplanetary coronal mass ejections around 2010 August 1 in the inner heliosphere

We present multi-point in situ observations of a complex sequence of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) which may serve as a benchmark event for numerical and empirical space weather prediction models. On 2010 August 1, instruments on various space missions (Solar Dynamics Observatory/ Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Solar-TErrestrial-RElations-Observatory) monitored several CMEs originating within tens of degrees from solar disk center. We compare their imprints on four widely separated locations, spanning 120 degree in heliospheric longitude, with radial distances from the Sun ranging from MESSENGER (0.38 AU) to Venus Express (VEX, at 0.72 AU) to Wind, ACE and ARTEMIS near Earth, and STEREO-B close to 1 AU. Calculating shock and flux rope parameters at each location points to a non-spherical shape of the shock, and shows the global configuration of the interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs), which have interacted, but do not seem to have merged. VEX and STEREO-B observed similar magnetic flux ropes (MFRs), in contrast to structures at Wind. The geomagnetic storm was intense, reaching two minima in the Dst index (~ -100 nT), caused by the sheath region behind the shock and one of two observed MFRs. MESSENGER received a glancing blow of the ICMEs, and the events missed STEREO-A entirely. The observations demonstrate how sympathetic solar eruptions may immerse at least 1/3 of the heliosphere in the ecliptic with their distinct plasma and magnetic field signatures. We also emphasize the difficulties in linking the local views derived from single-spacecraft observations to a consistent global picture, pointing to possible alterations from the classical picture of ICMEs.

astro-ph.SR↗