arXiv subjects

Dag Tjøstheim

Publications and source records attributed to Dag Tjøstheim.

16 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2022

Local Gaussian cross-spectrum analysis

The ordinary spectrum is restricted in its applications, since it is based on the second order moments (auto and cross-covariances). Alternative approaches to spectrum analysis have been investigated based on other measures of dependence. One such approach was developed for univariate time series by the authors of this paper using the local Gaussian auto-spectrum based on the local Gaussian auto-correlations. This makes it possible to detect local structures in univariate time series that looks like white noise when investigated by the ordinary auto-spectrum. In this paper the local Gaussian approach is extended to a local Gaussian cross-spectrum for multivariate time series. The local Gaussian cross-spectrum has the desirable property that it coincides with the ordinary cross-spectrum for Gaussian time series, which implies that it can be used to detect non-Gaussian traits in the time series under investigation. In particular: If the ordinary spectrum is flat, then peaks and troughs of the local Gaussian spectrum can indicate nonlinear traits, which potentially might reveal local periodic phenomena that goes undetected in an ordinary spectral analysis.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2022

Some recent trends in embeddings of time series and dynamic networks

We give a review of some recent developments in embeddings of time series and dynamic networks. We start out with traditional principal components and then look at extensions to dynamic factor models for time series. Unlike principal components for time series, the literature on time-varying nonlinear embedding is rather sparse. The most promising approaches in the literature is neural network based, and has recently performed well in forecasting competitions. We also touch upon different forms of dynamics in topological data analysis. The last part of the paper deals with embedding of dynamic networks where we believe there is a gap between available theory and the behavior of most real world networks. We illustrate our review with two simulated examples. Throughout the review, we highlight differences between the static and dynamic case, and point to several open problems in the dynamic case.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2022

Statistical embedding: Beyond principal components

There has been an intense recent activity in embedding of very high dimensional and nonlinear data structures, much of it in the data science and machine learning literature. We survey this activity in four parts. In the first part we cover nonlinear methods such as principal curves, multidimensional scaling, local linear methods, ISOMAP, graph based methods and diffusion mapping, kernel based methods and random projections. The second part is concerned with topological embedding methods, in particular mapping topological properties into persistence diagrams and the Mapper algorithm. Another type of data sets with a tremendous growth is very high-dimensional network data. The task considered in part three is how to embed such data in a vector space of moderate dimension to make the data amenable to traditional techniques such as cluster and classification techniques. Arguably this is the part where the contrast between algorithmic machine learning methods and statistical modeling, the so-called stochastic block modeling, is at its greatest. In the paper, we discuss the pros and cons for the two approaches. The final part of the survey deals with embedding in $\mathbb{R}^ 2$, i.e. visualization. Three methods are presented: $t$-SNE, UMAP and LargeVis based on methods in parts one, two and three, respectively. The methods are illustrated and compared on two simulated data sets; one consisting of a triplet of noisy Ranunculoid curves, and one consisting of networks of increasing complexity generated with stochastic block models and with two types of nodes.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2021

Multivariate self-exciting jump processes with applications to financial data

The paper discusses multivariate self- and cross-exciting processes. We define a class of multivariate point processes via their corresponding stochastic intensity processes that are driven by stochastic jumps. Essentially, there is a jump in an intensity process whenever the corresponding point process records an event. An attribute of our modelling class is that not only a jump is recorded at each instance, but also its magnitude. This allows large jumps to influence the intensity to a larger degree than smaller jumps. We give conditions which guarantee that the process is stable, in the sense that it does not explode, and provide a detailed discussion on when the subclass of linear models is stable. Finally, we fit our model to financial time series data from the S\&P 500 and Nikkei 225 indices respectively. We conclude that a nonlinear variant from our modelling class fits the data best. This supports the observation that in times of crises (high intensity) jumps tend to arrive in clusters, whereas there are typically longer times between jumps when the markets are calmer. We moreover observe more variability in jump sizes when the intensity is high, than when it is low.

math.PR↗

arXiv2021

Portfolio Allocation under Asymmetric Dependence in Asset Returns using Local Gaussian Correlations

It is well known that there are asymmetric dependence structures between financial returns. In this paper we use a new nonparametric measure of local dependence, the local Gaussian correlation, to improve portfolio allocation. We extend the classical mean-variance framework, and show that the portfolio optimization is straightforward using our new approach, only relying on a tuning parameter (the bandwidth). The new method is shown to outperform the equally weighted (1/N) portfolio and the classical Markowitz portfolio for monthly asset returns data.

q-fin.PM↗

arXiv2020

Nonlinear spectral analysis: A local Gaussian approach

The spectral distribution $f(ω)$ of a stationary time series $\{Y_t\}_{t\in\mathbb{Z}}$ can be used to investigate whether or not periodic structures are present in $\{Y_t\}_{t\in\mathbb{Z}}$, but $f(ω)$ has some limitations due to its dependence on the autocovariances $γ(h)$. For example, $f(ω)$ can not distinguish white i.i.d. noise from GARCH-type models (whose terms are dependent, but uncorrelated), which implies that $f(ω)$ can be an inadequate tool when $\{Y_t\}_{t\in\mathbb{Z}}$ contains asymmetries and nonlinear dependencies. Asymmetries between the upper and lower tails of a time series can be investigated by means of the local Gaussian autocorrelations introduced in Tjøstheim and Hufthammer (2013), and these local measures of dependence can be used to construct the local Gaussian spectral density presented in this paper. A key feature of the new local spectral density is that it coincides with $f(ω)$ for Gaussian time series, which implies that it can be used to detect non-Gaussian traits in the time series under investigation. In particular, if $f(ω)$ is flat, then peaks and troughs of the new local spectral density can indicate nonlinear traits, which potentially might discover local periodic phenomena that remain undetected in an ordinary spectral analysis.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2019

The Locally Gaussian Partial Correlation

It is well known that the dependence structure for jointly Gaussian variables can be fully captured using correlations, and that the conditional dependence structure in the same way can be described using partial correlations. The partial orrelation does not, however, characterize conditional dependence in many non-Gaussian populations. This paper introduces the local Gaussian partial correlation (LGPC), a new measure of conditional dependence. It is a local version of the partial correlation coefficient that characterizes conditional dependence in a large class of populations. It has some useful and novel properties besides: The LGPC reduces to the ordinary partial correlation for jointly normal variables, and it distinguishes between positive and negative conditional dependence. Furthermore, the LGPC can be used to study departures from conditional independence in specific parts of the distribution. We provide several examples of this, both simulated and real, and derive estimation theory under a local likelihood framework. Finally, we indicate how the LGPC can be used to construct a powerful test for conditional independence, which, again, can be used to detect Granger causality in time series.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2018

Statistical dependence: Beyond Pearson's $ρ$

Pearson's $ρ$ is the most used measure of statistical dependence. It gives a complete characterization of dependence in the Gaussian case, and it also works well in some non-Gaussian situations. It is well known, however, that it has a number of shortcomings; in particular for heavy tailed distributions and in nonlinear situations, where it may produce misleading, and even disastrous results. In recent years a number of alternatives have been proposed. In this paper, we will survey these developments, especially results obtained in the last couple of decades. Among measures discussed are the copula, distribution-based measures, the distance covariance, the HSIC measure popular in machine learning, and finally the local Gaussian correlation, which is a local version of Pearson's $ρ$. Throughout we put the emphasis on conceptual developments and a comparison of these. We point out relevant references to technical details as well as comparative empirical and simulated experiments. There is a broad selection of references under each topic treated.

math.ST↗

arXiv2017

Multivariate Count Autoregression

We are studying the problems of modeling and inference for multivariate count time series data with Poisson marginals. The focus is on linear and log-linear models. For studying the properties of such processes we develop a novel conceptual framework which is based on copulas. However, our approach does not impose the copula on a vector of counts; instead the joint distribution is determined by imposing a copula function on a vector of associated continuous random variables. This specific construction avoids conceptual difficulties resulting from the joint distribution of discrete random variables yet it keeps the properties of the Poisson process marginally. We employ Markov chain theory and the notion of weak dependence to study ergodicity and stationarity of the models we consider. We obtain easily verifiable conditions for both linear and log-linear models under both theoretical frameworks. Suitable estimating equations are suggested for estimating unknown model parameters. The large sample properties of the resulting estimators are studied in detail. The work concludes with some simulations and a real data example.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2016

Non-parametric estimation of conditional densities: A new method

Let $\textbf{X} = (X_1,\ldots, X_p)$ be a stochastic vector having joint density function $f_{\textbf{X}}(x)$ with partitions $\textbf{X}_1 = (X_1,\ldots, X_k)$ and $\textbf{X}_2 = (X_{k+1},\ldots, X_p)$. A new method for estimating the conditional density function of $\textbf{X}_1$ given $\textbf{X}_2$ is presented. It is based on locally Gaussian approximations, but simplified in order to tackle the curse of dimensionality in multivariate applications, where both response and explanatory variables can be vectors. We compare our method to some available competitors, and the error of approximation is shown to be small in a series of examples using real and simulated data, and the estimator is shown to be particularly robust against noise caused by independent variables. We also present examples of practical applications of our conditional density estimator in the analysis of time series. Typical values for $k$ in our examples are 1 and 2, and we include simulation experiments with values of $p$ up to 6. Large sample theory is established under a strong mixing condition.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2016

Estimation in nonlinear regression with Harris recurrent Markov chains

In this paper, we study parametric nonlinear regression under the Harris recurrent Markov chain framework. We first consider the nonlinear least squares estimators of the parameters in the homoskedastic case, and establish asymptotic theory for the proposed estimators. Our results show that the convergence rates for the estimators rely not only on the properties of the nonlinear regression function, but also on the number of regenerations for the Harris recurrent Markov chain. Furthermore, we discuss the estimation of the parameter vector in a conditional volatility function, and apply our results to the nonlinear regression with $I(1)$ processes and derive an asymptotic distribution theory which is comparable to that obtained by Park and Phillips [Econometrica 69 (2001) 117-161]. Some numerical studies including simulation and empirical application are provided to examine the finite sample performance of the proposed approaches and results.

math.ST↗

arXiv2016

Estimation for single-index and partially linear single-index integrated models

Estimation mainly for two classes of popular models, single-index and partially linear single-index models, is studied in this paper. Such models feature nonstationarity. Orthogonal series expansion is used to approximate the unknown integrable link functions in the models and a profile approach is used to derive the estimators. The findings include the dual rate of convergence of the estimators for the single-index models and a trio of convergence rates for the partially linear single-index models. A new central limit theorem is established for a plug-in estimator of the unknown link function. Meanwhile, a considerable extension to a class of partially nonlinear single-index models is discussed in Section 4. Monte Carlo simulation verifies these theoretical results. An empirical study furnishes an application of the proposed estimation procedures in practice.

math.ST↗

arXiv2009

Specification testing in nonlinear and nonstationary time series autoregression

This paper considers a class of nonparametric autoregressive models with nonstationarity. We propose a nonparametric kernel test for the conditional mean and then establish an asymptotic distribution of the proposed test. Both the setting and the results differ from earlier work on nonparametric autoregression with stationarity. In addition, we develop a new bootstrap simulation scheme for the selection of a suitable bandwidth parameter involved in the kernel test as well as the choice of a simulated critical value. The finite-sample performance of the proposed test is assessed using one simulated example and one real data example.

math.ST↗

arXiv2007

Exploring spatial nonlinearity using additive approximation

We propose to approximate the conditional expectation of a spatial random variable given its nearest-neighbour observations by an additive function. The setting is meaningful in practice and requires no unilateral ordering. It is capable of catching nonlinear features in spatial data and exploring local dependence structures. Our approach is different from both Markov field methods and disjunctive kriging. The asymptotic properties of the additive estimators have been established for $α$-mixing spatial processes by extending the theory of the backfitting procedure to the spatial case. This facilitates the confidence intervals for the component functions, although the asymptotic biases have to be estimated via (wild) bootstrap. Simulation results are reported. Applications to real data illustrate that the improvement in describing the data over the auto-normal scheme is significant when nonlinearity or non-Gaussianity is pronounced.

math.ST↗

arXiv2007

Nonparametric estimation in a nonlinear cointegration type model

We derive an asymptotic theory of nonparametric estimation for a time series regression model $Z_t=f(X_t)+W_t$, where \ensuremath\{X_t\} and \ensuremath\{Z_t\} are observed nonstationary processes and $\{W_t\}$ is an unobserved stationary process. In econometrics, this can be interpreted as a nonlinear cointegration type relationship, but we believe that our results are of wider interest. The class of nonstationary processes allowed for $\{X_t\}$ is a subclass of the class of null recurrent Markov chains. This subclass contains random walk, unit root processes and nonlinear processes. We derive the asymptotics of a nonparametric estimate of f(x) under the assumption that $\{W_t\}$ is a Markov chain satisfying some mixing conditions. The finite-sample properties of $\hat{f}(x)$ are studied by means of simulation experiments.

math.ST↗

arXiv2006

Estimation in semiparametric spatial regression

Nonparametric methods have been very popular in the last couple of decades in time series and regression, but no such development has taken place for spatial models. A rather obvious reason for this is the curse of dimensionality. For spatial data on a grid evaluating the conditional mean given its closest neighbors requires a four-dimensional nonparametric regression. In this paper a semiparametric spatial regression approach is proposed to avoid this problem. An estimation procedure based on combining the so-called marginal integration technique with local linear kernel estimation is developed in the semiparametric spatial regression setting. Asymptotic distributions are established under some mild conditions. The same convergence rates as in the one-dimensional regression case are established. An application of the methodology to the classical Mercer and Hall wheat data set is given and indicates that one directional component appears to be nonlinear, which has gone unnoticed in earlier analyses.

math.ST↗