arXiv subjects

Damian Kozbur

Publications and source records attributed to Damian Kozbur.

9 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

An Introduction to Double/Debiased Machine Learning

This paper provides an introduction to Double/Debiased Machine Learning (DML). DML is a general approach to performing inference about a target parameter in the presence of nuisance functions: objects that are needed to identify the target parameter but are not of primary interest. Nuisance functions arise naturally in many settings, such as when controlling for confounding variables or leveraging instruments. The paper describes two biases that arise from nuisance function estimation and explains how DML alleviates these biases. Consequently, DML allows the use of flexible methods, including machine learning tools, for estimating nuisance functions, reducing the dependence on auxiliary functional form assumptions and enabling the use of complex non-tabular data, such as text or images. We illustrate the application of DML through simulations and empirical examples. We conclude with a discussion of recommended practices. A companion website includes additional examples with code and references to other resources.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2023

Hedging Forecast Combinations With an Application to the Random Forest

This papers proposes a generic, high-level methodology for generating forecast combinations that would deliver the optimal linearly combined forecast in terms of the mean-squared forecast error if one had access to two population quantities: the mean vector and the covariance matrix of the vector of individual forecast errors. We point out that this problem is identical to a mean-variance portfolio construction problem, in which portfolio weights correspond to forecast combination weights. We allow negative forecast weights and interpret such weights as hedging over and under estimation risks across estimators. This interpretation follows directly as an implication of the portfolio analogy. We demonstrate our method's improved out-of-sample performance relative to standard methods in combining tree forecasts to form weighted random forests in 14 data sets.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2022

Inference for Dependent Data with Learned Clusters

This paper presents and analyzes an approach to cluster-based inference for dependent data. The primary setting considered here is with spatially indexed data in which the dependence structure of observed random variables is characterized by a known, observed dissimilarity measure over spatial indices. Observations are partitioned into clusters with the use of an unsupervised clustering algorithm applied to the dissimilarity measure. Once the partition into clusters is learned, a cluster-based inference procedure is applied to a statistical hypothesis testing procedure. The procedure proposed in the paper allows the number of clusters to depend on the data, which gives researchers a principled method for choosing an appropriate clustering level. The paper gives conditions under which the proposed procedure asymptotically attains correct size. A simulation study shows that the proposed procedure attains near nominal size in finite samples in a variety of statistical testing problems with dependent data.

math.ST↗

arXiv2021

Dimension-Free Anticoncentration Bounds for Gaussian Order Statistics with Discussion of Applications to Multiple Testing

The following anticoncentration property is proved. The probability that the $k$-order statistic of an arbitrarily correlated jointly Gaussian random vector $X$ with unit variance components lies within an interval of length $\varepsilon$ is bounded above by $2{\varepsilon}k ({ 1+\mathrm{E}[\|X\|_\infty ]}) $. This bound has implications for generalized error rate control in statistical high-dimensional multiple hypothesis testing problems, which are discussed subsequently.

math.ST↗

arXiv2020

Inference in Additively Separable Models With a High-Dimensional Set of Conditioning Variables

This paper studies nonparametric series estimation and inference for the effect of a single variable of interest x on an outcome y in the presence of potentially high-dimensional conditioning variables z. The context is an additively separable model E[y|x, z] = g0(x) + h0(z). The model is high-dimensional in the sense that the series of approximating functions for h0(z) can have more terms than the sample size, thereby allowing z to have potentially very many measured characteristics. The model is required to be approximately sparse: h0(z) can be approximated using only a small subset of series terms whose identities are unknown. This paper proposes an estimation and inference method for g0(x) called Post-Nonparametric Double Selection which is a generalization of Post-Double Selection. Standard rates of convergence and asymptotic normality for the estimator are shown to hold uniformly over a large class of sparse data generating processes. A simulation study illustrates finite sample estimation properties of the proposed estimator and coverage properties of the corresponding confidence intervals. Finally, an empirical application to college admissions policy demonstrates the practical implementation of the proposed method.

math.ST↗

arXiv2020

Analysis of Testing-Based Forward Model Selection

This paper introduces and analyzes a procedure called Testing-based forward model selection (TBFMS) in linear regression problems. This procedure inductively selects covariates that add predictive power into a working statistical model before estimating a final regression. The criterion for deciding which covariate to include next and when to stop including covariates is derived from a profile of traditional statistical hypothesis tests. This paper proves probabilistic bounds, which depend on the quality of the tests, for prediction error and the number of selected covariates. As an example, the bounds are then specialized to a case with heteroskedastic data, with tests constructed with the help of Huber-Eicker-White standard errors. Under the assumed regularity conditions, these tests lead to estimation convergence rates matching other common high-dimensional estimators including Lasso.

math.ST↗

arXiv2018

Targeted Undersmoothing

This paper proposes a post-model selection inference procedure, called targeted undersmoothing, designed to construct uniformly valid confidence sets for a broad class of functionals of sparse high-dimensional statistical models. These include dense functionals, which may potentially depend on all elements of an unknown high-dimensional parameter. The proposed confidence sets are based on an initially selected model and two additionally selected models, an upper model and a lower model, which enlarge the initially selected model. We illustrate application of the procedure in two empirical examples. The first example considers estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects using data from the Job Training Partnership Act of 1982, and the second example looks at estimating profitability from a mailing strategy based on estimated heterogeneous treatment effects in a direct mail marketing campaign. We also provide evidence on the finite sample performance of the proposed targeted undersmoothing procedure through a series of simulation experiments.

math.ST↗

arXiv2018

Sharp Convergence Rates for Forward Regression in High-Dimensional Sparse Linear Models

Forward regression is a statistical model selection and estimation procedure which inductively selects covariates that add predictive power into a working statistical regression model. Once a model is selected, unknown regression parameters are estimated by least squares. This paper analyzes forward regression in high-dimensional sparse linear models. Probabilistic bounds for prediction error norm and number of selected covariates are proved. The analysis in this paper gives sharp rates and does not require beta-min or irrepresentability conditions.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2014

Inference in High Dimensional Panel Models with an Application to Gun Control

We consider estimation and inference in panel data models with additive unobserved individual specific heterogeneity in a high dimensional setting. The setting allows the number of time varying regressors to be larger than the sample size. To make informative estimation and inference feasible, we require that the overall contribution of the time varying variables after eliminating the individual specific heterogeneity can be captured by a relatively small number of the available variables whose identities are unknown. This restriction allows the problem of estimation to proceed as a variable selection problem. Importantly, we treat the individual specific heterogeneity as fixed effects which allows this heterogeneity to be related to the observed time varying variables in an unspecified way and allows that this heterogeneity may be non-zero for all individuals. Within this framework, we provide procedures that give uniformly valid inference over a fixed subset of parameters in the canonical linear fixed effects model and over coefficients on a fixed vector of endogenous variables in panel data instrumental variables models with fixed effects and many instruments. An input to developing the properties of our proposed procedures is the use of a variant of the Lasso estimator that allows for a grouped data structure where data across groups are independent and dependence within groups is unrestricted. We provide formal conditions within this structure under which the proposed Lasso variant selects a sparse model with good approximation properties. We present simulation results in support of the theoretical developments and illustrate the use of the methods in an application aimed at estimating the effect of gun prevalence on crime rates.

stat.ME↗