arXiv subjects

Dan Chavas

Publications and source records attributed to Dan Chavas.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

TCBench: A Benchmark for Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity Forecasting at the Global Scale

TCBench is a benchmark for evaluating global, short to medium-range (1-5 days) forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) track and intensity. To allow a fair and model-agnostic comparison, TCBench builds on the IBTrACS observational dataset and formulates TC forecasting as predicting the time evolution of an existing tropical system conditioned on its initial position and intensity. TCBench includes state-of-the-art physics-based (TIGGE) and Artificial Intelligence Weather Prediction (AIWP) models (AIFS, Pangu-Weather, FourCastNet v2, GenCast, FNV3). If not readily available (e.g., from the NOAA website as is done with TIGGE), TC tracks are consistently derived from model outputs using the TempestExtremes library. TCBench provides deterministic and probabilistic storm-following metrics. On 2023 test cases, AIWP models skillfully forecast TC tracks, while skillful intensity forecasts require additional steps such as post-processing or task-specific training. Designed for accessibility, TCBench helps AI practitioners tackle domain-relevant TC challenges and equips tropical meteorologists with data-driven tools and workflows to improve prediction and TC process understanding. By lowering barriers to reproducible, process-aware evaluation of extreme events, TCBench aims to democratize data-driven TC forecasting.

cs.CE↗

arXiv2023

An analytical model for tropical cyclone outer-size expansion on the f-plane

Tropical cyclones are known to expand to an equilibrium size on the $f$-plane, but the expansion process is not understood. In this study, an analytical model for tropical cyclone size expansion on the $f$-plane is proposed. Conceptually, the storm expands because the imbalance between latent heating and radiative cooling drives a lateral inflow that imports absolute vorticity. Volume-integrated latent heating increases more slowly with size than radiative cooling, and hence the storm expands towards an equilibrium size. The predicted expansion rate is given by the ratio of the difference in size from its equilibrium value ($r_{t,eq}$) to an environmentally-determined time scale $\tau_{rt}$ of $10\sim15$ days. The model is fully predictive if given a constant $r_{t,eq}$, which can also be estimated environmentally. The model successfully captures the first-order size evolution across a range of numerical simulation experiments in which the potential intensity and $f$ are varied. The model predictions of the dependencies of lateral inflow velocity and expansion rate on latent heating rate also compare well with numerical simulations. This model provides a useful foundation for understanding storm size dynamics in nature.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2018

Rapid Assessment of Damaged Homes in the Florida Keys after Hurricane Irma

On September 10, 2017, Hurricane Irma made landfall in the Florida Keys and caused significant damage. Informed by hydrodynamic storm surge and wave modeling and post-storm satellite imagery, a rapid damage survey was soon conducted for 1600+ residential buildings in Big Pine Key and Marathon. Damage categorizations and statistical analysis reveal distinct factors governing damage at these two locations. The distance from the coast is significant for the damage in Big Pine Key, as severely damaged buildings were located near narrow waterways connected to the ocean. Building type and size are critical in Marathon, highlighted by the near-complete destruction of trailer communities there. These observations raise issues of affordability and equity that need consideration in damage recovery and rebuilding for resilience.

stat.AP↗