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Dan Crisan

Publications and source records attributed to Dan Crisan.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

The identification of diffusions from imperfect observations

This paper studies the identification of an $\mathbb{R}^d$-valued diffusion $X$ when a running function of it, say $h(X_t)$, is observed. A point-wise observation of the process (in other words, observing $h(X_t)$ in isolation) cannot identify $X_t$ unless the $h$ is injective. However observing $h(X_s)$ on a small interval $[t,t+\varepsilon]$ can be enough to determine $X_t$ exactly. The paper contain results that expand on this idea; in particular, a property of `fine total asymmetry' of twice continuously differentiable $h$ is introduced that depends on the fine topology of potential theory and that is both necessary and sufficient for $X$ to be adapted to a natural right-continuous filtration generated by the observations. This particular filtration, though augmented with null sets, does not depend on the distribution of $X_0$. For real-analytic $h$ the property reduces to simple asymmetry; that is, there is no nontrivial affine isometry $κ$ on $\mathbb{R}^d$ such that $h = h \circ κ$. A second result concerns the case where $X_0$ is given and $h$ is merely Borel; then $X$ is adapted to an augmented filtration generated by the observation process $(h(X_t))_{t\geq 0}$ if $h$ is `locally invertible' on a subset of $\mathbb{R}^d$ dense in the fine topology on $\mathbb{R}^d$.

math.PR↗

Spatial analyticity and exponential decay of Fourier modes for the stochastic Navier-Stokes equation

We construct a local in time spatially real-analytic solution to the 2D and 3D stochastic Navier--Stokes equation driven by a spatially real-analytic multiplicative and transport noise but emanating from an initial condition that is only required to have bounded enstrophy. Under the condition that the solution is global in time, we also establish the exponential decay of the finite-dimensional Galerkin approximation, with respect to its maximum wavenumber, to the strong pathwise solution of the stochastic Navier--Stokes equation. This decay is uniform in time, uniform with respect to the initial enstropy, and uniform in the noise coefficients.

math.AP↗

A probabilistic representation of the derivative of a one dimensional killed diffusion semigroup

We provide a probabilistic representation for the derivative of the semigroup corresponding to a diffusion process killed at the boundary of a half interval. In particular, we show that the derivative of the semi-group can be expressed as the expected value of a functional of a reflected diffusion process. Furthermore, as an application, we obtain a Bismut-Elworthy-Li formula which is also valid at the boundary.

math.PR↗

Probabilistic representation of the gradient of a killed diffusion semigroup: The half-space case

We introduce a probabilistic representation of the derivative of the semigroup associated to a multidimensional killed diffusion process defined on the half-space. The semigroup derivative is expressed as a functional of a process that is normally reflected when it hits the hyperplane. The representation of the derivative also involves a matrix-valued process which replaces the Jacobian of the underlying process that appears in the traditional pathwise derivative of a classical diffusion. The components of this matrix-valued process become zero except for those on the first row every time the reflected process touches the boundary. The results in this paper extend those in recent work of the authors, where the one-dimensional case was studied.

math.PR↗

On energy-aware hybrid models

This study proposes deterministic and stochastic energy-aware hybrid models that should enable simulations of idealized and primitive-equations Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (GFD) models at low resolutions without compromising on quality compared with high-resolution runs. Such hybrid models bridge the data-driven and physics-driven modelling paradigms by combining regional stability and classical GFD models at low resolution that cannot reproduce high-resolution reference flow features (large-scale flows and small-scale vortices) which are, however, resolved. Hybrid models use an energy-aware correction of advection velocity and extra forcing compensating for the drift of the low-resolution model away from the reference phase space. The main advantages of hybrid models are that they allow for physics-driven flow recombination within the reference energy band, reproduce resolved reference flow features, and produce more accurate ensemble forecasts than their classical GFD counterparts. Hybrid models offer appealing benefits and flexibility to the modelling and forecasting communities, as they are computationally cheap and can use both numerically-computed flows and observations from different sources. All these suggest that the hybrid approach has the potential to exploit low-resolution models for long-term weather forecasts and climate projections thus offering a new cost effective way of GFD modelling. The proposed hybrid approach has been tested on a three-layer quasi-geostrophic model for a beta-plane Gulf Stream flow configuration. The results show that the low-resolution hybrid model reproduces the reference flow features that are resolved on the coarse grid and also gives a more accurate ensemble forecast than the physics-driven model.

physics.flu-dyn↗

Approximation of non-linear SPDEs with additive noise via weighted interacting particles systems: the stochastic McKean-Vlasov equation

This paper is devoted to the problem of approximating non-linear Stochastic Partial Differential Equations (SPDEs) via interacting particle systems. In particular, we consider the Stochastic McKean-Vlasov equation, which is the McKean-Vlasov (MKV) PDE, perturbed by additive trace class noise. As is well-known, the MKV PDE can be obtained as mean field limit of the empirical measure of a stochastic system of interacting particles, where particles are subject to independent sources of noise. There is now a natural question, which is the one we consider and answer in this paper: can we obtain the SMKV equation, i.e. additive perturbations of the MKV PDE, as limit of interacting particle systems? It turns out that, in order to obtain the SMKV equation, one needs to study weighted empirical measures of particles, where the particles evolve according to a system of SDEs with independent noise, while the weights are time evolving and subject to common noise. The work of this manuscript therefore complements and contributes to various streams of literature, in particular: i) much attention in the community is currently devoted to obtaining SPDEs as scaling limits of appropriate dynamics; this paper contributes to a complementary stream, which is devoted to obtaining representations of SPDE through limits of empirical measures of interacting particle systems; ii) since the literature on limits of weighted empirical measures is often constrained to the case of static (random or deterministic) weights, this paper contributes to further expanding this line of research to the case of time-evolving weights.

math.PR↗

Poisson Equations with locally-Lipschitz coefficients and Uniform in Time Averaging for Stochastic Differential Equations via Strong Exponential Stability

We study averaging for Stochastic Differential Equations (SDEs) and Poisson equations. We succeed in obtaining a uniform in time (UiT) averaging result, with a rate, for fully coupled SDE models with super-linearly growing coefficients. This is the main result of this paper and is, to the best of our knowledge, the first UiT multiscale result with a rate. Very few UiT averaging results exist in the literature, and they almost exclusively apply to multiscale systems of Ordinary Differential Equations. Among these few, none of those we are aware of comes with a rate of convergence. The UiT nature of this result and the rate of convergence given by the main theorem, make it important as theoretical underpinning for a range of applications, such as applications to statistical methodology, molecular dynamics etc. Key to obtaining both our UiT averaging result and to enable dealing with the super-linear growth of the coefficients is conquering exponential decay in time of the space-derivatives of appropriate Markov semigroups. We refer to this property as being Strongly Exponentially Stable (SES). The analytic approach to proving averaging results we take requires studying a family of Poisson problems associated with the generator of the (fast component of the) SDE dynamics. The study of Poisson equations in non-compact state space is notoriously difficult, with current literature mostly covering the case when the coefficients of the Partial Differential Equation (PDE) are either bounded or satisfy linear growth assumptions. In this paper we treat Poisson equations on non-compact state spaces for coefficients that can grow super-linearly. We demonstrate how SES can be employed not only to prove the UiT result for the slow-fast system but also to overcome some of the technical hurdles in the analysis of Poisson problems, which is of independent interest as well.

math.PR↗

Generative Modelling of Stochastic Rotating Shallow Water Noise

In recent work, the authors have developed a generic methodology for calibrating the noise in fluid dynamics stochastic partial differential equations where the stochasticity was introduced to parametrize subgrid-scale processes. The stochastic parameterization of sub-grid scale processes is required in the estimation of uncertainty in weather and climate predictions, to represent systematic model errors arising from subgrid-scale fluctuations. The previous methodology used a principal component analysis (PCA) technique based on the ansatz that the increments of the stochastic parametrization are normally distributed. In this paper, the PCA technique is replaced by a generative model technique. This enables us to avoid imposing additional constraints on the increments. The methodology is tested on a stochastic rotating shallow water model with the elevation variable of the model used as input data. The numerical simulations show that the noise is indeed non-Gaussian. The generative modelling technology gives good RMSE, CRPS score and forecast rank histogram results.

stat.ML↗

Global solutions for stochastically controlled fluid dynamics models

For a class of evolution equations that possibly have only local solutions, we introduce a stochastic component that ensures that the solutions of the corresponding stochastically perturbed equations are global. The class of partial differential equations amenable for this type of treatment includes the 3D Navier-Stokes equation, the rotating shallow water equation (viscous and inviscid), 3D Euler equation (in vorticity form), 2D Burgers' equation and many other fluid dynamics models.

math.AP↗

Sequential Markov Chain Monte Carlo for Lagrangian Data Assimilation with Applications to Unknown Data Locations

We consider a class of high-dimensional spatial filtering problems, where the spatial locations of observations are unknown and driven by the partially observed hidden signal. This problem is exceptionally challenging as not only is high-dimensional, but the model for the signal yields longer-range time dependencies through the observation locations. Motivated by this model we revisit a lesser-known and \emph{provably convergent} computational methodology from \cite{berzuini, cent, martin} that uses sequential Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) chains. We extend this methodology for data filtering problems with unknown observation locations. We benchmark our algorithms on Linear Gaussian state space models against competing ensemble methods and demonstrate a significant improvement in both execution speed and accuracy. Finally, we implement a realistic case study on a high-dimensional rotating shallow water model (of about $10^4-10^5$ dimensions) with real and synthetic data. The data is provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and contains observations from ocean drifters in a domain of the Atlantic Ocean restricted to the longitude and latitude intervals $[-51^{\circ}, -41^{\circ}]$, $[17^{\circ}, 27^{\circ}]$ respectively.

stat.ME↗

Data assimilation for the stochastic Camassa-Holm equation using particle filtering: a numerical investigation

In this study, we explore data assimilation for the Stochastic Camassa-Holm equation through the application of the particle filtering framework. Specifically, our approach integrates adaptive tempering, jittering, and nudging techniques to construct an advanced particle filtering system. All filtering processes are executed utilizing ensemble parallelism. We conduct extensive numerical experiments across various scenarios of the Stochastic Camassa-Holm model with transport noise and viscosity to examine the impact of different filtering procedures on the performance of the data assimilation process. Our analysis focuses on how observational data and the data assimilation step influence the accuracy and uncertainty of the obtained results.

math.NA↗

Sequential discretisation schemes for a class of stochastic differential equations and their application to Bayesian filtering

We introduce a predictor-corrector discretisation scheme for the numerical integration of a class of stochastic differential equations and prove that it converges with weak order 1.0. The key feature of the new scheme is that it builds up sequentially (and recursively) in the dimension of the state space of the solution, hence making it suitable for approximations of high-dimensional state space models. We show, using the stochastic Lorenz 96 system as a test model, that the proposed method can operate with larger time steps than the standard Euler-Maruyama scheme and, therefore, generate valid approximations with a smaller computational cost. We also introduce the theoretical analysis of the error incurred by the new predictor-corrector scheme when used as a building block for discrete-time Bayesian filters for continuous-time systems. Finally, we assess the performance of several ensemble Kalman filters that incorporate the proposed sequential predictor-corrector Euler scheme and the standard Euler-Maruyama method. The numerical experiments show that the filters employing the new sequential scheme can operate with larger time steps, smaller Monte Carlo ensembles and noisier systems.

stat.CO↗

The Zero Viscosity Limit of Stochastic Navier-Stokes Flows

We introduce an analogue to Kato's Criterion regarding the inviscid convergence of stochastic Navier-Stokes flows to the strong solution of the deterministic Euler equation. Our assumptions cover additive, multiplicative and transport type noise models. This is achieved firstly for the typical noise scaling of $ν^\frac{1}{2}$, before considering a new parameter which approaches zero with viscosity but at a potentially different rate. We determine the implications of this for our criterion and clarify a sense in which the scaling by $ν^\frac{1}{2}$ is optimal. To enable the analysis we prove the existence of probabilistically weak, analytically weak solutions to a general stochastic Navier-Stokes Equation on a bounded domain with no-slip boundary condition in three spatial dimensions, as well as the existence and uniqueness of probabilistically strong, analytically weak solutions in two dimensions. The criterion applies for these solutions in both two and three dimensions, with some technical simplifications in the 2D case.

math.PR↗

Noise calibration for the stochastic rotating shallow water model

Stochastic partial differential equations have been used in a variety of contexts to model the evolution of uncertain dynamical systems. In recent years, their applications to geophysical fluid dynamics has increased massively. For a judicious usage in modelling fluid evolution, one needs to calibrate the amplitude of the noise to data. In this paper we address this requirement for the stochastic rotating shallow water (SRSW) model. This work is a continuation of [LvLCP23], where a data assimilation methodology has been introduced for the SRSW model. The noise used in [LvLCP23] was introduced as an arbitrary random phase shift in the Fourier space. This is not necessarily consistent with the uncertainty induced by a model reduction procedure. In this paper, we introduce a new method of noise calibration of the SRSW model which is compatible with the model reduction technique. The method is generic and can be applied to arbitrary stochastic parametrizations. It is also agnostic as to the source of data (real or synthetic). It is based on a principal component analysis technique to generate the eigenvectors and the eigenvalues of the covariance matrix of the stochastic parametrization. For SRSW model covered in this paper, we calibrate the noise by using the elevation variable of the model, as this is an observable easily obtainable in practical application, and use synthetic data as input for the calibration procedure.

math.DS↗

Theoretical analysis and numerical approximation for the stochastic thermal quasi-geostrophic model

This paper investigates the mathematical properties of a stochastic version of the balanced 2D thermal quasigeostrophic (TQG) model of potential vorticity dynamics. This stochastic TQG model is intended as a basis for parametrisation of the dynamical creation of unresolved degrees of freedom in computational simulations of upper ocean dynamics when horizontal buoyancy gradients and bathymetry affect the dynamics, particularly at the submesoscale (250m--10km). Specifically, we have chosen the SALT (Stochastic Advection by Lie Transport) algorithm introduced in [1] and applied in [2,3] as our modelling approach. The SALT approach preserves the Kelvin circulation theorem and an infinite family of integral conservation laws for TQG. The goal of the SALT algorithm is to quantify the uncertainty in the process of up-scaling, or coarse-graining of either observed or synthetic data at fine scales, for use in computational simulations at coarser scales. The present work provides a rigorous mathematical analysis of the solution properties of the thermal quasigeostrophic (TQG) equations with stochastic advection by Lie transport (SALT) [4,5].

math.AP↗

Comparison of Stochastic Parametrization Schemes using Data Assimilation on Triad Models

In recent years, stochastic parametrizations have been ubiquitous in modelling uncertainty in fluid dynamics models. One source of model uncertainty comes from the coarse graining of the fine-scale data and is in common usage in computational simulations at coarser scales. In this paper, we look at two such stochastic parametrizations: the Stochastic Advection by Lie Transport (SALT) parametrization introduced by Holm and the Location Uncertainty (LU) parametrization introduced by Mémin. Whilst both parametrizations are available for full-scale models, we study their reduced order versions obtained by projecting them on a complex vector Fourier mode triad of eigenfunctions of the curl. Remarkably, these two parametrizations lead to the same reduced order model, which we term the helicity-preserving stochastic triad (HST). This reduced order model is then compared with an alternative model which preserves the energy of the system, and which is termed the energy preserving stochastic triad (EST). These low-dimensional models are ideal benchmark models for testing new Data Assimilation algorithms: they are easy to implement, exhibit diverse behaviours depending on the choice of the coefficients and come with natural physical properties such as the conservation of energy and helicity.

math.DS↗

Asymptotic behavior of the forecast-assimilation process with unstable dynamics

Extensive numerical evidence shows that the assimilation of observations has a stabilizing effect on unstable dynamics, in numerical weather prediction and elsewhere. In this paper, we apply mathematically rigorous methods to showing why this is so. Our stabilization results do not assume a full set of observations and we provide examples where it suffices to observe the model's unstable degrees of freedom.

math.ST↗

On the Navier-Stokes Equations with Stochastic Lie Transport

We prove the existence and uniqueness of maximal solutions to the 3D SALT (Stochastic Advection by Lie Transport, [Holm arXiv:1410.8311]) Navier-Stokes Equation in velocity and vorticity form, on the torus and the bounded domain respectively. The current work partners the paper [Goodair et al, arXiv:2209.09137] as an application of the abstract framework presented there, justifying the results first announced in [Goodair, arXiv:2202.09242v2]. In particular this represents the first well-posedness result for a fluid equation perturbed by a general transport type noise on a bounded domain.

math.AP↗