arXiv subjects

Dan Crisan

Publications and source records attributed to Dan Crisan.

At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

arXiv2021

Local well-posedness for the great lake equation with transport noise

This work is a continuation of the authors' work for the stochastic 2D Euler equation driven by transport type noise. Here we lift the incompressibility constraint. Instead we assume a weighted incompressibility condition. This condition is inspired by a physical model for a fluid in a basin with a free upper surface and a spatially varying bottom topography. Moreover, we assume a different form of the vorticity to stream function operator that generalizes the standard Biot-Savart operator which appears in the Euler equation. These two properties are exhibited in the physical model called the great lake equation. For this reason we refer to the model analysed in this paper as the stochastic great lake equation. The new vorticity to stream function operator generalizes the curl operator and it is shown to have good regularity properties. We also show that the initial smoothness of the solution is preserved. The arguments are based on constructing a family of viscous solutions which is proved to be relatively compact and to converge to a truncated version of the original equation. Finally, we show that the truncation can be removed up to a positive stopping time.

math.AP↗

arXiv2021

Pathwise approximations for the solution of the non-linear filtering problem

We consider high order approximations of the solution of the stochastic filtering problem, derive their pathwise representation in the spirit of the earlier work of Clark and Davis and prove their robustness property. In particular, we show that the high order discretised filtering functionals can be represented by Lipschitz continuous functions defined on the observation path space. This property is important from the practical point of view as it is in fact the pathwise version of the filtering functional that is sought in numerical applications. Moreover, the pathwise viewpoint will be a stepping stone into the rigorous development of machine learning methods for the filtering problem. This work is a continuation of a recent work by two of the authors where a discretisation of the solution of the filtering problem of arbitrary order has been established. We expand the previous work by showing that robust approximations can be derived from the discretisations therein.

math.NA↗

arXiv2020

Semi-martingale driven variational principles

Spearheaded by the recent efforts to derive stochastic geophysical fluid dynamics models, we present a generic framework for introducing stochasticity into variational principles through the concept of a semi-martingale driven variational principle and constraining the component variables to be compatible with the driving semi-martingale. Within this framework and the corresponding choice of constraints, the Euler-Poincare equation can be easily deduced. We show that their corresponding deterministic counterparts are particular cases of this class of stochastic variational principles. Moreover, this is a natural framework that enables us to correctly characterize the pressure term in incompressible stochastic fluid models. Other general constraints can also be incorporated as long as they are compatible with the driving semi-martingale.

math-ph↗

arXiv2020

Well-posedness for a stochastic 2D Euler equation with transport noise

We prove the existence of a unique global strong solution for a stochastic two-dimensional Euler vorticity equation for incompressible flows with noise of transport type. In particular, we show that the initial smoothness of the solution is preserved. The arguments are based on approximating the solution of the Euler equation with a family of viscous solutions which is proved to be relatively compact using a tightness criterion by Kurtz.

math.AP↗

arXiv2020

A Particle Filter for Stochastic Advection by Lie Transport (SALT): A case study for the damped and forced incompressible 2D Euler equation

In this work, we combine a stochastic model reduction with a particle filter augmented with tempering and jittering, and apply the combined algorithm to a damped and forced incompressible 2D Euler dynamics defined on a simply connected bounded domain. We show that using the combined algorithm, we are able to assimilate data from a reference system state (the ``truth") modelled by a highly resolved numerical solution of the flow that has roughly $3.1\times10^6$ degrees of freedom, into a stochastic system having two orders of magnitude less degrees of freedom, which is able to approximate the true state reasonably accurately for $5$ large scale eddy turnover times, using modest computational hardware. The model reduction is performed through the introduction of a stochastic advection by Lie transport (SALT) model as the signal on a coarser resolution. The SALT approach was introduced as a general theory using a geometric mechanics framework from Holm, Proc. Roy. Soc. A (2015). This work follows on the numerical implementation for SALT presented by Cotter et al, SIAM Multiscale Model. Sim. (2019) for the flow in consideration. The model reduction is substantial: The reduced SALT model has $4.9\times 10^4$ degrees of freedom. Results from reliability tests on the assimilated system are also presented.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2020

Modelling uncertainty using stochastic transport noise in a 2-layer quasi-geostrophic model

The stochastic variational approach for geophysical fluid dynamics was introduced by Holm (Proc Roy Soc A, 2015) as a framework for deriving stochastic parameterisations for unresolved scales. This paper applies the variational stochastic parameterisation in a two-layer quasi-geostrophic model for a beta-plane channel flow configuration. We present a new method for estimating the stochastic forcing (used in the parameterisation) to approximate unresolved components using data from the high resolution deterministic simulation, and describe a procedure for computing physically-consistent initial conditions for the stochastic model. We also quantify uncertainty of coarse grid simulations relative to the fine grid ones in homogeneous (teamed with small-scale vortices) and heterogeneous (featuring horizontally elongated large-scale jets) flows, and analyse how the spread of stochastic solutions depends on different parameters of the model. The parameterisation is tested by comparing it with the true eddy-resolving solution that has reached some statistical equilibrium and the deterministic solution modelled on a low-resolution grid. The results show that the proposed parameterisation significantly depends on the resolution of the stochastic model and gives good ensemble performance for both homogeneous and heterogeneous flows, and the parameterisation lays solid foundations for data assimilation.

physics.flu-dyn↗

arXiv2019

Stable approximation schemes for optimal filters

A stable filter has the property that it asymptotically `forgets' initial perturbations. As a result of this property, it is possible to construct approximations of such filters whose errors remain small in time, in other words approximations that are uniformly convergent in the time variable. As uniform approximations are ideal from a practical perspective, finding criteria for filter stability has been the subject of many papers. In this paper we seek to construct approximate filters that stay close to a given (possibly) unstable filter. Such filters are obtained through a general truncation scheme and, under certain constraints, are stable. The construction enables us to give a characterisation of the topological properties of the set of optimal filters. In particular, we introduce a natural topology on this set, under which the subset of stable filters is dense.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2019

Data assimilation for a quasi-geostrophic model with circulation-preserving stochastic transport noise

This paper contains the latest installment of the authors' project on developing ensemble based data assimilation methodology for high dimensional fluid dynamics models. The algorithm presented here is a particle filter that combines model reduction, tempering, jittering, and nudging. The methodology is tested on a two-layer quasi-geostrophic model for a $β$-plane channel flow with $O(10^6)$ degrees of freedom out of which only a minute fraction are noisily observed. The model is reduced by following the stochastic variational approach for geophysical fluid dynamics introduced in Holm (Proc Roy Soc A, 2015) as a framework for deriving stochastic parametrisations for unresolved scales. The reduction is substantial: the computations are done only for $O(10^4)$ degrees of freedom. We introduce a stochastic time-stepping scheme for the two-layer model and prove its consistency in time. Then, we analyze the effect of the different procedures (tempering combined with jittering and nudging) on the performance of the data assimilation procedure using the reduced model, as well as how the dimension of the observational data (the number of "weather stations") and the data assimilation step affect the accuracy and uncertainty of the results.

math.NA↗

arXiv2018

Solution properties of a 3D stochastic Euler fluid equation

We prove local well-posedness in regular spaces and a Beale-Kato-Majda blow-up criterion for a recently derived stochastic model of the 3D Euler fluid equation for incompressible flow. This model describes incompressible fluid motions whose Lagrangian particle paths follow a stochastic process with cylindrical noise and also satisfy Newton's 2nd Law in every Lagrangian domain.

math-ph↗

arXiv2018

Numerically Modelling Stochastic Lie Transport in Fluid Dynamics

We present a numerical investigation of stochastic transport in ideal fluids. According to Holm (Proc Roy Soc, 2015) and Cotter et al. (2017), the principles of transformation theory and multi-time homogenisation, respectively, imply a physically meaningful, data-driven approach for decomposing the fluid transport velocity into its drift and stochastic parts, for a certain class of fluid flows. In the current paper, we develop new methodology to implement this velocity decomposition and then numerically integrate the resulting stochastic partial differential equation using a finite element discretisation for incompressible 2D Euler fluid flows. The new methodology tested here is found to be suitable for coarse graining in this case. Specifically, we perform uncertainty quantification tests of the velocity decomposition of Cotter et al. (2017), by comparing ensembles of coarse-grid realisations of solutions of the resulting stochastic partial differential equation with the "true solutions" of the deterministic fluid partial differential equation, computed on a refined grid. The time discretization used for approximating the solution of the stochastic partial differential equation is shown to be consistent. We include comprehensive numerical tests that confirm the non-Gaussianity of the stream function, velocity and vorticity fields in the case of incompressible 2D Euler fluid flows.

physics.flu-dyn↗

arXiv2018

Particle representations for stochastic partial differential equations with boundary conditions

In this article, we study a weighted particle representation for a class of stochastic partial differential equations with Dirichlet boundary conditions. The locations and weights of the particles satisfy an infinite system of stochastic differential equations (SDEs). The evolution of the particles is modeled by an infinite system of stochastic differential equations with reflecting boundary condition and driven by independent finite dimensional Brownian motions. The weights of the particles evolve according to an infinite system of stochastic differential equations driven by a common cylindrical noise $W$ and interact through $V$, the associated weighted empirical measure. When the particles hit the boundary their corresponding weights are assigned a pre-specified value. We show the existence and uniqueness of a solution of the infinite dimensional system of stochastic differential equations modeling the location and the weights of the particles. We also prove that the associated weighted empirical measure $V$ is the unique solution of a nonlinear stochastic partial differential equation driven by $W$ with Dirichlet boundary condition. The work is motivated by and applied to the stochastic Allen-Cahn equation and extends the earlier of work of Kurtz and Xiong.

math.PR↗

arXiv2018

Optimization Based Methods for Partially Observed Chaotic Systems

In this paper we consider filtering and smoothing of partially observed chaotic dynamical systems that are discretely observed, with an additive Gaussian noise in the observation. These models are found in a wide variety of real applications and include the Lorenz 96' model. In the context of a fixed observation interval $T$, observation time step $h$ and Gaussian observation variance $σ_Z^2$, we show under assumptions that the filter and smoother are well approximated by a Gaussian with high probability when $h$ and $σ^2_Z h$ are sufficiently small. Based on this result we show that the Maximum-a-posteriori (MAP) estimators are asymptotically optimal in mean square error as $σ^2_Z h$ tends to $0$. Given these results, we provide a batch algorithm for the smoother and filter, based on Newton's method, to obtain the MAP. In particular, we show that if the initial point is close enough to the MAP, then Newton's method converges to it at a fast rate. We also provide a method for computing such an initial point. These results contribute to the theoretical understanding of widely used 4D-Var data assimilation method. Our approach is illustrated numerically on the Lorenz 96' model with state vector up to 1 million dimensions, with code running in the order of minutes. To our knowledge the results in this paper are the first of their type for this class of models.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2018

On Concentration Properties of Partially Observed Chaotic Systems

This article presents results on the concentration properties of the smoothing and filtering distributions of some partially observed chaotic dynamical systems. We show that, rather surprisingly, for the geometric model of the Lorenz equations, as well as some other chaotic dynamical systems, the smoothing and filtering distributions do not concentrate around the true position of the signal, as the number of observations tends to infinity. Instead, under various assumptions on the observation noise, we show that the expected value of the diameter of the support of the smoothing and filtering distributions remains lower bounded by a constant times the standard deviation of the noise, independently of the number of observations. Conversely, under rather general conditions, the diameter of the support of the smoothing and filtering distributions are upper bounded by a constant times the standard deviation of the noise. To some extent, applications to the three dimensional Lorenz 63' model and to the Lorenz 96' model of arbitrarily large dimension are considered.

math.ST↗

arXiv2017

A high order time discretization of the solution of the non-linear filtering problem

The solution of the continuous time filtering problem can be represented as a ratio of two expectations of certain functionals of the signal process that are parametrized by the observation path. We introduce a class of discretization schemes of these functionals of arbitrary order. The result generalizes the classical work of Picard, who introduced first order discretizations to the filtering functionals. For a given time interval partition, we construct discretization schemes with convergence rates that are proportional with the $m$-power of the mesh of the partition for arbitrary $m\in\mathbb{N}$. The result paves the way for constructing high order numerical approximation for the solution of the filtering problem.

math.PR↗

arXiv2017

Unbiased Multi-index Monte Carlo

We introduce a new class of Monte Carlo based approximations of expectations of random variables such that their laws are only available via certain discretizations. Sampling from the discretized versions of these laws can typically introduce a bias. In this paper, we show how to remove that bias, by introducing a new version of multi-index Monte Carlo (MIMC) that has the added advantage of reducing the computational effort, relative to i.i.d. sampling from the most precise discretization, for a given level of error. We cover extensions of results regarding variance and optimality criteria for the new approach. We apply the methodology to the problem of computing an unbiased mollified version of the solution of a partial differential equation with random coefficients. A second application concerns the Bayesian inference (the smoothing problem) of an infinite dimensional signal modelled by the solution of a stochastic partial differential equation that is observed on a discrete space grid and at discrete times. Both applications are complemented by numerical simulations.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2017

Nested particle filters for online parameter estimation in discrete-time state-space Markov models

We address the problem of approximating the posterior probability distribution of the fixed parameters of a state-space dynamical system using a sequential Monte Carlo method. The proposed approach relies on a nested structure that employs two layers of particle filters to approximate the posterior probability measure of the static parameters and the dynamic state variables of the system of interest, in a vein similar to the recent "sequential Monte Carlo square" (SMC$^2$) algorithm. However, unlike the SMC$^2$ scheme, the proposed technique operates in a purely recursive manner. In particular, the computational complexity of the recursive steps of the method introduced herein is constant over time. We analyse the approximation of integrals of real bounded functions with respect to the posterior distribution of the system parameters computed via the proposed scheme. As a result, we prove, under regularity assumptions, that the approximation errors vanish asymptotically in $L_p$ ($p \ge 1$) with convergence rate proportional to $\frac{1}{\sqrt{N}} + \frac{1}{\sqrt{M}}$, where $N$ is the number of Monte Carlo samples in the parameter space and $N\times M$ is the number of samples in the state space. This result also holds for the approximation of the joint posterior distribution of the parameters and the state variables. We discuss the relationship between the SMC$^2$ algorithm and the new recursive method and present a simple example in order to illustrate some of the theoretical findings with computer simulations.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2017

Smoothing properties of McKean-Vlasov SDEs

In this article, we develop integration by parts formulae on Wiener space for solutions of SDEs with general McKean-Vlasov interaction and uniformly elliptic coefficients. These integration by parts formulae hold both for derivatives with respect to a real variable and derivatives with respect to a measure understood in the sense of Lions. They allows us to prove the existence of a classical solution to a related PDE with irregular terminal condition. We also develop bounds for the derivatives of the density of the solutions of McKean-Vlasov SDEs.

math.PR↗

arXiv2017

Cubature on Wiener Space for McKean-Vlasov SDEs with Smooth Scalar Interaction

We present two cubature on Wiener space algorithms for the numerical solution of McKean-Vlasov SDEs with smooth scalar interaction. The analysis hinges on sharp gradient to time-inhomogeneous parabolic PDEs bounds. These bounds may be of independent interest. They extend the classical results of Kusuoka \& Stroock. Both algorithms are tested through two numerical examples.

math.PR↗