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Dandan Qiao

Publications and source records attributed to Dandan Qiao.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

Structured Event Representation and Stock Return Predictability

We find that event features extracted by large language models (LLMs) are effective for text-based stock return prediction. Using a pre-trained LLM to extract event features from news articles, we propose a novel deep learning model based on structured event representation (SER) and attention mechanisms to predict stock returns in the cross-section. Our SER-based model provides superior performance compared with other existing text-driven models to forecast stock returns out of sample and offers highly interpretable feature structures to examine the mechanisms underlying the stock return predictability. We further provide various implications based on SER and highlight the crucial benefit of structured model inputs in stock return predictability.

econ.GN

AI and Jobs: Has the Inflection Point Arrived? Evidence from an Online Labor Platform

This study investigates how artificial intelligence (AI) influences various online labor markets (OLMs) over time. Employing the Difference-in-Differences method, we discovered two distinct scenarios following ChatGPT's launch: displacement effects featuring reduced work volume and earnings, exemplified by translation & localization OLM; productivity effects featuring increased work volume and earnings, exemplified by web development OLM. To understand these opposite effects in a unified framework, we developed a Cournot competition model to identify an inflection point for each market. Before this point, human workers benefit from AI enhancements; beyond this point, human workers would be replaced. Further analyzing the progression from ChatGPT 3.5 to 4.0, we found three effect scenarios, reinforcing our inflection point conjecture. Heterogeneous analyses reveal that U.S. web developers tend to benefit more from ChatGPT's launch compared to their counterparts in other regions. Experienced translators seem more likely to exit the market than less experienced translators.

cs.AI

Regurgitative Training: The Value of Real Data in Training Large Language Models

What happens if we train a new Large Language Model (LLM) using data that are at least partially generated by other LLMs? The explosive success of LLMs means that a substantial amount of content online will be generated by LLMs rather than humans, which will inevitably enter the training datasets of next-generation LLMs. We evaluate the implications of such "regurgitative training" on LLM performance. Through fine-tuning GPT-3.5 with data generated either by itself or by other LLMs in a machine translation task, we find strong evidence that regurgitative training clearly handicaps the performance of LLMs. The same performance loss of regurgitative training is observed on transformer models that we train from scratch. We find suggestive evidence that the performance disadvantage of regurgitative training can be attributed to at least two mechanisms: (1) higher error rates and (2) lower lexical diversity in LLM-generated data as compared to real data. Based on these mechanisms, we propose and evaluate three different strategies to mitigate the performance loss of regurgitative training. First, we devise data-driven metrics to gauge the quality of each LLM-generated data instance, and then carry out an ordered training process where high-quality data are added before low-quality ones. Second, we combine data generated by multiple different LLMs (as an attempt to increase lexical diversity). Third, we train an AI detection classifier to differentiate between LLM- and human-generated data, and include LLM-generated data in the order of resemblance to human-generated data. All three strategies can improve the performance of regurgitative training to some extent but are not always able to fully close the gap from training with real data. Our results highlight the value of real, human-generated data in training LLMs, which cannot be easily substituted by synthetic, LLM-generated data.

cs.CL