arXiv subjects

Daniel A. Yahalomi

Publications and source records attributed to Daniel A. Yahalomi.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Singles in Disguise: Kepler's Low-SNR Single-Transiting Systems as Incompletely Detected Multis

NASA's Kepler mission found more systems with one transiting planet (``singles'') than expected from those with several (``multis''). This excess was first taken as evidence for a Kepler dichotomy -- a second population of intrinsically single or highly inclined systems -- but later work argued that selection effects acting on a single population can reproduce it. Singles also show a puzzling excess of low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) detections relative to multis. The question arises whether this excess reflects false positives, a selection effect, or an inherent population difference. Here we show, using the ExoMOD population synthesis model and the Kepler DR25 catalog, that multis drawn from the same parent population as singles have shorter mean orbital periods, and thus higher-SNR detections on average. Detecting several planets in one system favors compact architectures, so long-period, low-SNR detections are preferentially cataloged as singles, most of them intrinsically multi-planet systems whose other planets went undetected. The low-SNR excess of singles therefore requires neither false positives nor a Kepler dichotomy but rather only the geometry and period sensitivity of transit detection.

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arXiv2026

ExoMOD I. A Forward Model for the Orbital Architecture of Kepler Multi-Planet Systems

Transit observations only detect planets with favorable, near edge-on orientation of orbits as seen by a distant observer, which leaves much freedom for various interpretations in terms of the underlying planetary system architecture. Here we forward model transit observations of the Kepler telescope to characterize the orbital properties of close-in planetary systems. We make sensible choices about the underlying distributions of planet radii, masses and orbital periods, parameterize the orbital excitation with the Angular Momentum Deficit (AMD), and adopt an accurate method to account for transit detection. The fits to Kepler's DR25 data are executed with {\tt MultiNest}. We find that the orbital period distributions of Kepler singles and multis are statistically different from each other -- possibly a consequence of Kepler's observational baseline. The observed gap complexity distribution is reproduced when planets in high multiplicity systems ($m \geq 5$) are assigned ideally correlated period ratios. The high-multiplicity systems probably retained a memory of their formation conditions. The gap complexity metric also helps to constrain the AMD distribution. We find that systems with positive radius monotonicities typically harbor smaller planets, as expected if the radius monotonicity is influenced by non-detections. A FGK dwarf in the Kepler field should host $\simeq 2.4 \pm 0.2$ planets on average with radii $0.5 < R_{\rm pl}/R_\oplus < 7$ and orbital periods $3<P_{\rm orb}<300$ d. For a detected planetary system, there is roughly a 50\% chance that Kepler transit observations missed at least one inner or intermediate-period planet.

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arXiv2026

ExoMOD II. A Statistical Model of Transit Timing Variations in Kepler Multi-Planet Systems

In Paper I (Nesvorný et al. 2026), we forward modeled transit observations of the Kepler telescope to characterize the orbital properties of close-in planetary systems. The new population model, ExoMOD, was calibrated on Kepler's DR25 data. Here we use ExoMOD to statistically predict Transit Timing Variations (TTVs) from gravitationally interacting planets in the close-in systems, and compare these predictions with TTVs actually detected in the Kepler data. We find that planet-planet interactions are not expected to produce significant {\it short-period} TTVs, $P_{\rm TTV}/P_{\rm orb}<10$, where $P_{\rm TTV}$ and $P_{\rm orb}$ are the TTV and orbital periods, often enough to explain the short-period TTV signals inferred from the Kepler data. Most measured short-period signals must therefore have a different origin. The statistics of {\it long-period} TTVs -- likely arising from the gravitational interaction between planets -- indicates that single transiting planets have TTV-inducing companions nearly as often as doubles, thus ruling out multiplicity distributions with a prevalence of intrinsic singles. The fraction of planets with measured long-period TTVs increases to $\simeq 15$-18\% for observed multiplicities $m \geq 3$, suggesting a change in the orbital architecture. High-multiplicity planetary systems have low gap complexities and probably retained a memory of their formation conditions. Ultimately, our work aims at developing a more informative feedback between observations and planet formation theories.

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arXiv2026

TESS Photometry and Radial Velocity Analysis of the sub-Neptune Exoplanet π Mensae c and the Wider π Mensae Planetary System

Exoplanet characterization relies on precise measurements of planetary orbital and physical parameters. This is particularly important for planetary dynamics and atmospheric evolution, as orbital parameters help constrain system evolution, resolve ambiguities, and gauge atmospheric retention. The first exoplanet discovered by the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS), $π$ Men c, is a warm sub-Neptune orbiting a bright Sun-like star in a system containing (at least) one other planet with a wildly different period and size. Lying near the 1.5-2.0 $R_{\oplus}$ radius gap, $π$ Men c is expected to have lost its primordial hydrogen and helium, but kept heavier compounds like H$_2$O and CO$_2$. The $π$ Men system is well observed with decades of radial velocity measurements, and TESS has continued to observe $π$ Men c, yielding six years and 21 sectors of photometry. We present a comprehensive analysis of these TESS data and 22 years of radial velocity measurements to provide updated orbital ephemerides for $π$ Men b, c, and the proposed third planet, $π$ Men d. Our newly derived $π$ Men c period error margins are an order of magnitude improved from previous estimates, and we estimate the mass range of $π$ Men d to be 13.4 $\leq$ M$_d$ $<$ 20 M$_{\oplus}$. We find that $π$ Men c is a uniquely interesting target for future transmission spectroscopy studies with JWST, and that existing radial velocity data are consistent with the existence of a third planet.

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arXiv2026

A Massive Hot-Jupiter Companion that Disfavors Giant Planet Formation Beyond the Water-Ice Line

We report evidence for a brown-dwarf companion with mass $34^{+30}_{-11}~M_{\rm J}$ in the KELT-20 system, in which an ultra-hot Jupiter transits an A2-type star. The companion's properties are inferred from a joint analysis of astrometric accelerations and transit timing variations, and its present-day orbit imposes dynamical limits on where the hot Jupiter could have formed. Given the star's current luminosity, the water-ice line is expected at $\sim$8-15 au, but the companion's inferred pericenter distance of a few au would lead to orbit crossing or long-term instability for any planet formed at such distances. If the companion formed early and remained near its current orbit over the system's lifetime, the proto-hot Jupiter must have formed within $\sim$3.7 au to avoid orbit crossing, and within $\sim$1.5 au to remain dynamically stable over the system's lifetime. These results disfavor formation beyond the ice line and point instead to formation at smaller orbital distances followed by inward migration.

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arXiv2026

The democratic detrender: Ensemble-Based Removal of the Nuisance Signal in Stellar Time-Series Photometry

Accurate, precise, and computationally efficient removal of unwanted activity that exists as a combination of periodic, quasi-periodic, and non-periodic systematic trends in time-series photometric data is a critical step in exoplanet transit analysis. Throughout the years, many different modeling methods have been used for this process, often called "detrending." However, there is no community-wide consensus regarding the favored approach. In order to mitigate model dependency, we present an ensemble-based approach to detrending via community-of-models and the democratic detrender: a modular and scalable open-source coding package that implements ensemble detrending. The democratic detrender allows users to select from a number of packaged detrending methods (including cosine filtering, Gaussian processes, and polynomial fits) or provide their own set of detrended light curves via methods of their choosing. It then combines the individually detrended light curves into a single method marginalized light curve. Additionally, the democratic detrender inflates each data point's uncertainty based on the scatter between detrenders, thereby propagating model-selection uncertainty into the final light curve. This ensemble strategy does not guarantee improvement over the single best-performing detrending method, but it substantially reduces the risk of selecting a detrending solution that is poorly calibrated or overfit to noise.

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arXiv2026

The Astrometric Resoeccentric Degeneracy: Eccentric Single Planets Mimic 2:1 Resonant Planet Pairs in Astrometry

Detections of long-period giant exoplanets will expand dramatically with Gaia Data Release 4 (DR4), but interpreting these signals will require care. We derive the astrometric resoeccentric degeneracy: an astrometric analogue of the well-known radial velocity degeneracy in which a single eccentric planet can mimic two circular planets near a 2:1 period ratio. To first order in eccentricity, the sky-projected motion of a single eccentric orbit decomposes into a fundamental mode and first harmonic with an amplitude proportional to that eccentricity. A pair of coplanar, circular planets in a 2:1 orbital resonance produces the same harmonic structure: the outer planet sets the fundamental mode, while the inner planet supplies an apparent first harmonic. We present a mapping between the harmonic amplitudes and effective eccentricity ($e_\mathrm{eff}$) of a single planet that mimics a 2:1 configuration, demonstrating that $e_\mathrm{eff} = \, 2^{1/3}(M_{p,2}/M_{p,1})$, the masses of the inner and outer planets, respectively. Using simulated Gaia data we show that (1) coplanar 2:1 systems are statistically indistinguishable from a single eccentric planet and (2) mutual inclination can break this degeneracy. This bias favors detecting mutually inclined systems, often fingerprints of a dynamically hot history -- traces for processes such as planet-planet scattering or secular chaos. Determining the planetary architectures in which this degeneracy holds will be essential for measuring cool-giant occurrence rates with Gaia and for inferring their dynamical evolution histories.

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arXiv2026

Mapping the Orbital Landscape of Perturbing Planet Solutions for Single-Planet Systems with TTVs

There are now thousands of single-planet systems observed to exhibit transit timing variations (TTVs), yet we largely lack any interpretation of the implied masses responsible for these perturbations. Even when assuming these TTVs are driven by perturbing planets, the solution space is notoriously multi-modal with respect to the perturber's orbital period and there exists no standardized procedure to pinpoint these modes, besides from blind brute force numerical efforts. Using $N$-body simulations with TTVFast and focusing on the dominant periodic signal in the TTVs, we chart out the landscape of these modes and provide analytic predictions for their locations and widths, providing the community with a map for the first time: the TTV circus tent diagram. We then introduce an approach for modeling single-planet TTVs in the low-eccentricity regime, by splitting the orbital period space into a number of uniform prior bins over which there aren't these degeneracies. We show how one can define appropriate orbital period priors for the perturbing planet in order to sufficiently sample the complete parameter space. We demonstrate, analytically, how one can explain the numerical simulations using first-order near mean-motion resonance super-periods, the synodic period, and their aliases -- the expected dominant TTV periods in the low-eccentricity regime. Using a Bayesian framework, we then present a method for determining the optimal solution between TTVs induced by a perturbing planet and TTVs induced by a moon.

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arXiv2026

A JWST Transit of a Jupiter Analog I: Constraints on the Oblateness of Kepler-167e

In October 2024 JWST observed a transit of Kepler-167e, a Jupiter-analog planet on a 1000+ day orbit. These observations, recorded over a long baseline of nearly 60 hours, were designed to search for signatures of planetary oblateness and/or exomoons comparable to Ganymede. In this first in a series of studies analyzing these data we report on constraints on Kepler-167e's oblateness. We explored a large grid of data reduction pipelines and modeling choices, including a new entirely independent reduction pipeline ("katahdin") and two new treatments for limb darkening. We find that under a Bayesian model comparison framework the data are fit equally well by both spherical and oblate planet models, and that our ability to constrain the oblateness is negatively impacted by the influence of exposure-long trends. Using the most conservative of our posteriors, we place a 95% upper bound on the projected oblateness of $f<0.097$, which corresponds to a rotation period of $P\geq7.11$ hours if the planet's spin axis is aligned with the sky plane. We note, however, that the final bound depends on the choice of reduction pipeline and systematics model, and that our suite of end-to-end analyses produced bounds as low as $f<0.065$ at 95%. We conclude that leveraging JWST to make tighter constraints on planetary oblateness will require further investigation into mitigating exposure-long trends and correlated noise.

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arXiv2026

Quantifying the Contamination of TESS Ecliptic-Plane Light Curves by Minor Planets

Though missions devoted to time series photometry focus primarily on targets far beyond the solar system, their observations can be contaminated by foreground minor planets, especially near the ecliptic plane where solar system objects are most prevalent. Crucially, depending on one's choice of data reduction/background estimation algorithm, these objects can induce both apparent brightening and/or dimming events in processed light curves. To quantify the impact of these objects on archived TESS light curves, we used N-body integrations of all currently known minor planets to postdict all 600,000+ of their interactions with stars selected for high-cadence observations during TESS ecliptic plane sectors. We then created mock images of these moving sources and performed simple aperture photometry using the same target and background apertures used in SPOC processing. Our resulting 10,000+ target-specific light curves, which faithfully model the time-dependent positions and magnitudes of the actual solar system objects that approached each target, reveal that $>95\%$ of high-cadence ecliptic plane targets experience a minor planet crossing within 1 TESS pixel of the source. Additionally, 50% of all $T>13$ mag targets experience at least one instantaneous moment where the contaminating flux from minor planets exceeds 1% of the target flux. We discuss these population-level results and others, and highlight several case studies of bright flybys.

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arXiv2025

The Exoplanet Edge: Planets Don't Induce Observable TTVs with a Dominant TTV Period Faster than Half their Orbital Period

Transit timing variations (TTVs) are observed for exoplanets at a range of amplitudes and periods, yielding an ostensibly degenerate forest of possible explanations. We offer some clarity in this forest, showing that systems with a distant perturbing planet preferentially show TTVs with a dominant period equal to either the perturbing planet's period or half the perturbing planet's period. We demonstrate that planet induced TTVs are not expected with dominant TTV periods below this exoplanet edge (lower period limit) and that systems with TTVs that fall below this limit likely contain additional mass in the system. We present an explanation for both of these periods, showing that both aliasing of the conjunction induced synodic period and the near $1:2$ resonance super-period and tidal effects induce TTVs at periods equal to either the perturber's orbit or half-orbit. We provide three examples of known systems for which the recovered TTV period induced by a distant perturbing planet is equal to the perturber's orbital period or half its orbital period. We then investigate \textit{Kepler} two-planet systems with TTVs and identify 13 two-planet systems with TTVs below this TTV period lower limit -- thus potentially uncovering the gravitational influence of new planets and/or moons. We conclude by discussing how the exoplanet edge effects can be used to predict the presence of distance companion planets, in situations where TTVs are detected and where nearby companions can be ruled out by additional observations, such as radial velocity data.

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arXiv2025

Micrometeoroid Impact Rate Analysis for an Artemis-Era Lunar Base

NASA's Artemis Mission aims to return astronauts to the Moon and establish a base at the lunar south pole. A key challenge is understanding the threat from micrometeoroid impacts, which are too small to monitor directly. Using NASA's Meteoroid Engineering Model 3 (\texttt{MEM~3}), we estimate micrometeoroid impact rates on a base comparable in size to the International Space Station (100\,m $\times$ 100\,m $\times$ 10\,m). We find that a lunar base would experience $\sim$15,000--23,000 incident impacts per year by micrometeoroids with a mass range of $10^{-6}$--$10^{1}$~g, depending on location -- with minima at the lunar poles, a maximum near the sub-Earth longitude, and a factor of $\sim$1.6 variation between the two. To assess the mitigating effect of protection systems, we present a functional relationship describing the number of impacts that penetrate the shielding as a function of the minimum meteoroid mass capable of penetrating the shield -- the ``critical mass.'' We estimate that state-of-the-art Whipple shields protect against $\sim$99.9997\% of micrometeoroids. By re-running \texttt{MEM~3} with a minimum mass equal to the critical mass of modern Whipple shields, we determine that a shielded lunar base would experience $\sim$0.024--0.037 penetrating impacts per year -- again with minima at the poles and a maximum near the sub-Earth longitude. These results indicate that (1) the lunar poles are optimal for sustained habitation, (2) gravitational focusing by Earth dominates over its geometric shielding for this micrometeoroid flux, and (3) current shielding technology can reduce micrometeoroid threats by nearly five orders of magnitude, making long-duration lunar habitation feasible.

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arXiv2025

Near-circular orbits for planets around M/K-type stars with Earth-like sizes and instellations

Recent advances have enabled the discovery of a population of potentially Earth-like planets, yet their orbital eccentricity, which governs their climate and provides clues about their origin and dynamical history, is still largely unconstrained. We identify a sample of 17 transiting exoplanets around late-type stars with similar radii and irradiation to that of Earth and use the "photoeccentric effect" - which exploits transit durations - to infer their eccentricity distribution via hierarchical Bayesian modelling. Our analysis establishes that these worlds further resemble Earth in that their eccentricities are nearly circular (mean eccentricity $=0.060_{-0.028}^{+0.040}$ and $\leq0.15$), with the exception of one outlier of moderate eccentricity. The results hint at a subset population of dynamically warmer Earths, but this requires a larger sample to statistically confirm. The planets in our sample are thus largely subject to minimal eccentricity-induced seasonal variability and are consistent with emerging via smooth disk migration rather than violent planet-planet scattering.

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arXiv2024

A Reply to: Large Exomoons unlikely around Kepler-1625 b and Kepler-1708 b

Recently, Heller & Hippke argued that the exomoon candidates Kepler-1625 b-i and Kepler-1708 b-i were allegedly 'refuted'. In this Matters Arising, we address these claims. For Kepler-1625 b, we show that their Hubble light curve is identical to that previously published by the same lead author, in which the moon-like dip was recovered. Indeed, our fits of their data again recover the moon-like dip with improved residuals than that obtained by Heller & Hippke. Their fits therefore appear to have somehow missed this deeper likelihood maximum, as well producing apparently unconverged posteriors. Consequently, their best-fitting moon is the same radius as the planet, Kepler-1625 b; a radically different signal from that which was originally claimed. The authors then inject this solution into the Kepler data and remark, as a point of concern, how retrievals obtain much higher significances than originally reported. However, this issue stems from the injection of a fundamentally different signal. We demonstrate that their Hubble light curve exhibits ~20% higher noise and discards 11% of the useful data, which compromises its ability to recover the subtle signal of Kepler-1625 b-i. For Kepler-1708 b-i it was claimed that the exomoon model's Bayes factor is highly sensitive to detrending choices, yielding reduced evidence with a biweight filter versus the original claim. We use their own i) detrended light curve and ii) biweight filter code to investigate these claims. For both, we recover the original moon signal, to even higher confidence than before. The discrepancy is explained by comparing to their quoted fit metrics, where we again demonstrate that the Heller & Hippke regression definitively missed the deeper likelihood maximum corresponding to Kepler-1708 b-i. We conclude that both candidates remain viable but certainly demand further observations.

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arXiv2023

Detecting Solar System Analogs through Joint Radial Velocity/Astrometric Surveys

Earth-mass exoplanets on year-long orbits and cool gas giants (CGG) on decade-long orbits lie at the edge of current detection limits. The Terra Hunting Experiment (THE) will take nightly radial velocity (RV) observations on HARPS3 of at least 40 bright nearby G and K dwarfs for 10 years, with a target 1$σ$ measurement error of $\sim$0.3 m/s, in search of exoplanets that are Earth-like in mass and temperature. However, RV observations can only provide minimum mass estimates, due to the mass-inclination degeneracy. Astrometric observations of these same stars, with sufficient precision, could break this degeneracy. Gaia will soon release $\sim$100-200 astrometric observations of the THE stars with a 10 year baseline and $\sim$34.2 $μ$as 1$σ$ along-scan measurement error. The Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope will be capable of precision astrometry using its wide field imager (target $\sim$5-20 $μ$as 1$σ$ measurement error for bright stars) and could extend the astrometric observational baseline to $\sim$25 years. We simulate and model an observing program that combines data from these three telescopes. We find that (1) THE RVs and Gaia astrometry can detect Earth-like and CGG-like exoplanets around bright Sun-like stars at 10 parsecs and that (2) adding Roman astrometry improves the detection precision for CGG masses and periods by a factor up to $\sim$10 and $\sim$4, respectively. Such a survey could provide insight into the prevalence of Solar System analogs, exoplanet architectures reminiscent of the mass and orbital separation hierarchy of our Solar System, for the nearest Sun-like stars.

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arXiv2023

Not So Fast Kepler-1513: A Perturbing Planetary Interloper in the Exomoon Corridor

Transit Timing Variations (TTVs) can be induced by a range of physical phenomena, including planet-planet interactions, planet-moon interactions, and stellar activity. Recent work has shown that roughly half of moons would induce fast TTVs with a short period in the range of two-to-four orbits of its host planet around the star. An investigation of the Kepler TTV data in this period range identified one primary target of interest, Kepler-1513 b. Kepler-1513 b is a $8.05^{+0.58}_{-0.40}$ $R_\oplus$ planet orbiting a late G-type dwarf at $0.53^{+0.04}_{-0.03}$ AU. Using Kepler photometry, this initial analysis showed that Kepler-1513 b's TTVs were consistent with a moon. Here, we report photometric observations of two additional transits nearly a decade after the last Kepler transit using both ground-based observations and space-based photometry with TESS. These new transit observations introduce a previously undetected long period TTV, in addition to the original short period TTV signal. Using the complete transit dataset, we investigate whether a non-transiting planet, a moon, or stellar activity could induce the observed TTVs. We find that only a non-transiting perturbing planet can reproduce the observed TTVs. We additionally perform transit origami on the Kepler photometry, which independently applies pressure against a moon hypothesis. Specifically, we find that Kepler-1513 b's TTVs are consistent with an exterior non-transiting $\sim$Saturn mass planet, Kepler-1513 c, on a wide orbit, $\sim$5$\%$ outside a 5:1 period ratio with Kepler-1513 b. This example introduces a previously unidentified cause for planetary interlopers in the exomoon corridor, namely an insufficient baseline of observations.

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arXiv2023

Roman CCS White Paper: Adding Fields Hosting Globular Clusters To The Galactic Bulge Time Domain Survey

Despite multiple previous searches, no transiting planets have yet been identified within a globular cluster. This is believed to be due to a combination of factors: the low metallicities of most globular clusters suggests that there is significantly less planet-forming material per star in most globular clusters relative to the solar neighborhood, the high likelihood of dynamical interactions can also disrupt planetary orbits, and the data available for globular clusters is limited. However, transiting planets have been identified in open clusters, indicating that there may be planets in more massive clusters that have simply gone undetected, or that more massive clusters inhibit planet formation. Less than two degrees away from the nominal Galactic Bulge Time Domain Survey footprint, two globular clusters, NGC 6522 and NGC 6528, can be simultaneously observed by the Roman telescope during the Galactic Bulge Time Domain Survey. These clusters are comparable in mass (1-2 x 10$^5$ solar masses) and age (12 Gyr), but feature drastically different average metallicities: NGC 6522 has an average [Fe/H] $\sim$ -1.3, while NGC 6528 has an average [Fe/H] $\sim$ -0.1. If no transiting planets are detected in one season of time domain observations of these clusters, this would indicate a difference in planet occurrence among field stars and globular clusters at >3-$σ$ significance even after accounting for metallicity, which could be enhanced to >5-$σ$ significance with similar observations of another nearby field hosting a metal-rich globular cluster. Additionally, time domain observations of NGC 6522 and NGC 6528 will detect variable stars in both clusters, testing the connection between stellar variability and binary fraction to metallicity and cluster environment, as well as testing the dependence of exoplanet yields on stellar density and distance from the Galactic midplane.

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arXiv2022

A search for transit timing variations within the exomoon corridor using Kepler data

An exomoon will produce transit timing variations (TTVs) upon the parent planet and their undersampled nature causes half of such TTVs to manifest within a frequency range of 2 to 4 cycles, irrespective of exomoon demographics. Here, we search through published Kepler TTV data for such signals, applying a battery of significance and robustness checks, plus independent light curve analyses for candidate signals. Using the original transit times, we identify 11 (ostensibly) single-planets with a robust, significant and fast ($P_{TTV}<4$ cycles) TTV signal. However, of these, only 5 are recovered in an independent analysis of the original photometry, underscoring the importance of such checks. The surviving signals are subjected to an additional trifecta of statistical tests to ensure signal significance, predictive capability and consistency with an exomoon. KOI-3678.01, previously validated as Kepler-1513b, is the only case that passes every test, exhibiting a highly significant (>20 sigma) TTV signal with a periodicity, amplitude and shape consistent with that caused by an exomoon. Our analysis finds that this planet is $8.2_{-0.5}^{+0.7}$ $R_{\oplus}$ orbiting at $0.53_{-0.03}^{+0.04}$ AU around a late G-type dwarf. After forecasting the planetary mass, we expect it to be capable of maintaining at least a 0.3 $M_{\oplus}$ exomoon for 5 Gyr, and the TTV signal corresponds to a moon mass as low as 0.75 Lunar masses. We thus encourage follow-up observations and dynamical analysis of this unique signal, but caution skepticism until such data can be obtained.

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