arXiv subjects

Daniel C. Fabrycky

Publications and source records attributed to Daniel C. Fabrycky.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Kepler-50: Two Planets in Close Resonance Perturbed by a Non-transiting Planet

Kepler-50 has two transiting planets close to the 6:5 commensurability. We analyze transit times measured from Kepler data with dynamical fits. We attribute the residual signal to a near-resonance non-transiting third planet in the system. The parameters of the third planet are degenerate. We identified 55 (15) regions of interest for an exterior (interior) perturber, and characterize system parameters in each region of interest with posterior sampling. We find that removing samples that are not long-term stable provides few additional constraints on posteriors, and that the transit times do not confirm the likely 2-body resonant state of the transiting planets as $\approx$ 68\% of posterior samples that are likely stable are also likely in libration. We identify a small fraction of samples that are in 3-body libration. Despite the degeneracies, we recover robust, tightly constrained masses for Kepler-50 b and c ($2.35^{+0.48}_{-0.43}$ $M_{\oplus}$ and $4.43^{+0.45}_{-0.49}$ $M_{\oplus}$, respectively) and strongly detected non-zero relative eccentricity for Kepler-50 b and c with ($e_c\cos\varpi_c$ - $e_b\cos\varpi_b$) = -0.045 $\pm 0.003$, and ($e_c\sin\varpi_c$ - $e_b\sin\varpi_b$) = -0.030 $\pm 0.004$. These close neighbors are in the radius valley and sub-Neptune by size, respectively ($1.750 \pm 0.038$ $R_{\oplus}$ and $2.079 \pm 0.060$ $R_{\oplus}$). With one of the closest planet pairs known and one of the closest to first-order commensurability, the Kepler-50 system is an especially valuable benchmark for planet formation theory.

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arXiv2025

Updated Masses for the Gas Giants in the Eight-Planet Kepler-90 System Via Transit-Timing Variation and Radial Velocity Observations

The eight-planet Kepler-90 system exhibits the greatest multiplicity of planets found to date. All eight planets are transiting and were discovered in photometry from the NASA Kepler primary mission. The two outermost planets, g ($P_g$ = 211 d) and h ($P_h$ = 332 d) exhibit significant transit-timing variations (TTVs), but were only observed 6 and 3 times respectively by Kepler. These TTVs allow for the determination of planetary masses through dynamical modeling of the pair's gravitational interactions, but the paucity of transits allows a broad range of solutions for the masses and orbital ephemerides. To determine accurate masses and orbital parameters for planets g and h, we combined 34 radial velocities (RVs) of Kepler-90, collected over a decade, with the Kepler transit data. We jointly modeled the transit times of the outer two planets and the RV time series, then used our two-planet model to predict their future times of transit. These predictions led us to recover a transit of Kepler-90 g with ground-based observatories in May 2024. We then combined the 2024 transit and several previously unpublished transit times of planets g and h with the Kepler photometry and RV data to update the masses and linear ephemerides of the planets, finding masses for g and h of $15.0 \pm 1.3\, M_\oplus$, and $203 \pm 16\, M_\oplus$ respectively from a Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis. These results enable further insights into the architecturally rich Kepler-90 system and pave the way for atmospheric characterization with space-based facilities.

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arXiv2024

Updated Catalog of Kepler Planet Candidates: Focus on Accuracy and Orbital Periods

We present a new catalog of Kepler planet candidates that prioritizes accuracy of planetary dispositions and properties over uniformity. This catalog contains 4376 transiting planet candidates, including 1791 residing within 709 multi-planet systems, and provides the best parameters available for a large sample of Kepler planet candidates. We also provide a second set of stellar and planetary properties for transiting candidates that are uniformly-derived for use in occurrence rates studies. Estimates of orbital periods have been improved, but as in previous catalogs, our tabulated values for period uncertainties do not fully account for transit timing variations (TTVs). We show that many planets are likely to have TTVs with long periodicities caused by various processes, including orbital precession, and that such TTVs imply that ephemerides of Kepler planets are not as accurate on multi-decadal timescales as predicted by the small formal errors (typically 1 part in $10^6$ and rarely $ > 10^{-5}$) in the planets' measured mean orbital periods during the Kepler epoch. Analysis of normalized transit durations implies that eccentricities of planets are anti-correlated with the number of companion transiting planets. Our primary catalog lists all known Kepler planet candidates that orbit and transit only one star; for completeness, we also provide an abbreviated listing of the properties of the two dozen non-transiting planets that have been identified around stars that host transiting planets discovered by Kepler.

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arXiv2022

Sculpting the circumbinary planet size distribution through resonant interactions with companion planets

Resonant locking of two planets is an expected outcome of convergent disc migration. The planets subsequently migrate together as a resonant pair. In the context of circumbinary planets, the disc is truncated internally by the binary. If there were only a single planet, then this inner disc edge would provide a natural parking location. However, for two planets migrating together in resonance there will be a tension between the inner planet stopping at the disc edge, and the outer planet continuing to be torqued inwards. In this paper we study this effect, showing that the outcome is a function of the planet-planet mass ratio. Smaller outer planets tend to be parked in a stable exterior 2:1 or 3:2 resonance with the inner planet, which itself remains near the disc edge. Equal or larger mass outer planets tend to push the inner planet past the disc edge and too close to the binary, causing it to be ejected or sometimes flipped to an exterior orbit. Our simulations show that this process may explain an observed dearth of small (< 3 Earth radii) circumbinary planets, since small planets are frequently ejected or left on long-period orbits, for which transit detection is less likely. This may also be an efficient mechanism for producing free-floating planets and interstellar interlopers like `Oumuamua.

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arXiv2021

Following up the Kepler field: Masses of Targets for transit timing and atmospheric characterization

We identify a set of planetary systems observed by Kepler that merit transit timing variation (TTV) analysis given the orbital periods of transiting planets, the uncertainties for their transit times and the number of transits observed during the Kepler mission. We confirm the planetary nature of 4 KOIs within multicandidate systems. We forward model each of the planetary systems identified to determine which systems are likely to yield mass constraints that may be significantly improved upon with follow-up transit observations. We find projected TTVs diverge by more than 90 minutes after 6000 days in 27 systems, including 22 planets with orbital periods exceeding 25 days. Such targets would benefit the most from additional transit timing data. TTV follow-up could push exoplanet characterization to lower masses, at greater orbital periods and at cooler equilibrium temperatures than is currently possible from the Kepler dataset alone. Combining TTVs and recently revised stellar parameters, we characterize an ensemble of homogeneously selected planets and identify planets in the Kepler field with large enough estimated transmission annuli for atmospheric characterization with JWST.

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arXiv2021

Searching for Small Circumbinary Planets I. The STANLEY Automated Algorithm and No New Planets in Existing Systems

No circumbinary planets have been discovered smaller than 3 Earth radii, yet planets of this small size comprise over 75% of the discoveries around single stars. The observations do not prove the non-existence of small circumbinary planets, but rather they are much harder to find than around single stars, because their transit timing variations are much larger than the transit durations. We present STANLEY: an automated algorithm to find small circumbinary planets. It employs custom methods to detrend eclipsing binary light curves and stack shallow transits of variable duration and interval using N-body integrations. Applied to the Kepler circumbinaries, we recover all known planets, including the three planets of Kepler-47, and constrain the absence of additional planets of similar or smaller size. We also show that we could have detected < 3 Earth radii planets in half of the known systems. Our work will ultimately be applied to a broad sample of eclipsing binaries to (hopefully) produce new discoveries, and derive a circumbinary size distribution which can be compared to that for single stars.

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arXiv2020

The Origin of Systems of Tightly Packed Inner Planets with Misaligned, Ultra-Short-Period Companions

Ultra-short period planets provide a window into the inner edge of the parameter space occupied by planetary orbits. In one particularly intriguing class of multi-planet systems, the ultra-short period planet is flanked by short-period companions, and the outer planets occupy a discernibly distinct dynamical state. In the observational database, this phenomenon is represented by a small number of stars hosting systems of tightly packed co-planar planets as well as an ultra-short period planet, whose orbit of is misaligned relative to the mutual plane of the former. In this work, we explore two different mechanisms that can produce an ultra-short period planet that is misaligned with the rest of its compact planetary system: natural decoupling between the inner and outer system via the stellar quadrupole moment, and decoupling forced by an external companion with finely-tuned orbital parameters. These two processes operate with different timescales, and can thus occur simultaneously. In this work, we use the K2-266 system as an illustrative example to elucidate the dynamics of these two processes, and highlight the types of constraints that may arise regarding the dynamical histories of systems hosting ultra-short period planets.

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arXiv2020

Multiple Transits during a Single Conjunction: Identifying Transiting Circumbinary Planetary Candidates from TESS

We present results of a study on identifying circumbinary planet candidates that produce multiple transits during one conjunction with eclipsing binary systems. The occurrence of these transits enables us to estimate the candidates' orbital periods, which is crucial as the periods of the currently known transiting circumbinary planets are significantly longer than the typical observational baseline of TESS. Combined with the derived radii, it also provides valuable information needed for follow-up observations and subsequent confirmation of a large number of circumbinary planet candidates from TESS. Motivated by the discovery of the 1108-day circumbinary planet Kepler-1647, we show the application of this technique to four of Kepler's circumbinary planets that produce such transits. Our results indicate that in systems where the circumbinary planet is on a low-eccentricity orbit, the estimated planetary orbital period is within <10-20% of the true value. This estimate is derived from photometric observations spanning less than 5% of the planet's period, demonstrating the strong capability of the technique. Capitalizing on the current and future eclipsing binaries monitored by NASA's TESS mission, we estimate that hundreds of circumbinary planets candidates producing multiple transits during one conjunction will be detected in the TESS data. Such a large sample will enable statistical understanding of the population of planets orbiting binary stars and shed new light on their formation and evolution.

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arXiv2020

The EBLM project. VII. Spin-orbit alignment for the circumbinary planet host EBLM J0608-59 A/TOI-1338 A

A dozen short-period detached binaries are known to host transiting circumbinary planets. In all circumbinary systems so far, the planetary and binary orbits are aligned within a couple of degrees. However, the obliquity of the primary star, which is an important tracer of their formation, evolution, and tidal history, has only been measured in one circumbinary system until now. EBLM J0608-59/TOI-1338 is a low-mass eclipsing binary system with a recently discovered circumbinary planet identified by TESS. Here, we perform high-resolution spectroscopy during primary eclipse to measure the projected stellar obliquity of the primary component. The obliquity is low, and thus the primary star is aligned with the binary and planetary orbits with a projected spin-orbit angle $β= 2.8 \pm 17.1$ deg. The rotation period of $18.1 \pm 1.6$ days implied by our measurement of $v\sin{i_\star}$ suggests that the primary has not yet pseudo-synchronized with the binary orbit, but is consistent with gyrochronology and weak tidal interaction with the binary companion. Our result, combined with the known coplanarity of the binary and planet orbits, is suggestive of formation from a single disc. Finally, we considered whether the spectrum of the faint secondary star could affect our measurements. We show through simulations that the effect is negligible for our system, but can lead to strong biases in $v\sin{i_\star}$ and $β$ for higher flux ratios. We encourage future studies in eclipse spectroscopy test the assumption of a dark secondary for flux ratios $\gtrsim 1$ ppt.

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arXiv2020

The Discovery of the Long-Period, Eccentric Planet Kepler-88 d and System Characterization with Radial Velocities and Photodynamical Analysis

We present the discovery of Kepler-88 d ($P_d = 1403\pm14$ days, $M\mathrm{sin}i_d = 965\pm44\,M_\oplus = 3.04\pm0.14\,M_J$, $e_d = 0.41\pm0.03$) based on six years of radial velocity (RV) follow-up from the W. M. Keck Observatory HIRES spectrograph. Kepler-88 has two previously identified planets. Kepler-88 b (KOI-142.01) transits in the NASA \Kepler\ photometry and has very large transit timing variations. \citet{Nesvorny2013} perfomed a dynamical analysis of the TTVs to uniquely identify the orbital period and mass of the perturbing planet (Kepler-88 c), which was later was confirmed with RVs from the Observatoire de Haute-Provence (OHP, Barros et al. 2014). To fully explore the architecture of this system, we performed photodynamical modeling on the \Kepler\ photometry combined with the RVs from Keck and OHP and stellar parameters from spectroscopy and Gaia. Planet d is not detectable in the photometry, and long-baseline RVs are needed to ascertain its presence. A photodynamical model simultaneously optimized to fit the RVs and \Kepler\ photometry yields the most precise planet masses and orbital properties yet for b and c: $P_b = 10.91647\pm0.00014\,\mathrm{days}$, $M_b=9.5\pm1.2\,M_\oplus$, $P_c=22.2649\pm0.0007\,\mathrm{days}$, and $M_c=214.1\pm5.3\,M_\oplus$. The photodynamical solution also finds that planets b and c have low eccentricites and low mutual inclination, are apsidally anti-aligned, and have conjunctions on the same hemisphere of the star. Continued RV follow-up of systems with small planets will improve our understanding of the link between inner planetary system architectures and giant planets.

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arXiv2020

TOI-1338: TESS' First Transiting Circumbinary Planet

We report the detection of the first circumbinary planet found by TESS. The target, a known eclipsing binary, was observed in sectors 1 through 12 at 30-minute cadence and in sectors 4 through 12 at two-minute cadence. It consists of two stars with masses of 1.1 MSun and 0.3 MSun on a slightly eccentric (0.16), 14.6-day orbit, producing prominent primary eclipses and shallow secondary eclipses. The planet has a radius of ~6.9 REarth and was observed to make three transits across the primary star of roughly equal depths (~0.2%) but different durations -- a common signature of transiting circumbinary planets. Its orbit is nearly circular (e ~ 0.09) with an orbital period of 95.2 days. The orbital planes of the binary and the planet are aligned to within ~1 degree. To obtain a complete solution for the system, we combined the TESS photometry with existing ground-based radial-velocity observations in a numerical photometric-dynamical model. The system demonstrates the discovery potential of TESS for circumbinary planets, and provides further understanding of the formation and evolution of planets orbiting close binary stars.

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arXiv2020

An information theoretic framework for classifying exoplanetary system architectures

We propose several descriptive measures to characterize the arrangements of planetary masses, periods, and mutual inclinations within exoplanetary systems. These measures are based in complexity theory and capture the global, system-level trends of each architecture. Our approach considers all planets in a system simultaneously, facilitating both intra-system and inter-system analysis. We find that based on these measures, Kepler's high-multiplicity ($N\geq3$) systems can be explained if most systems belong to a single intrinsic population, with a subset of high-multiplicity systems ($\sim20\%$) hosting additional, undetected planets intermediate in period between the known planets. We confirm prior findings that planets within a system tend to be roughly the same size and approximately coplanar. We find that forward modeling has not yet reproduced the high degree of spacing similarity (in log-period) actually seen in the Kepler data. Although our classification scheme was developed using compact Kepler multis as a test sample, our methods can be immediately applied to any other population of exoplanetary systems. We apply this classification scheme to (1) quantify the similarity between systems, (2) resolve observational biases from physical trends, and (3) identify which systems to search for additional planets and where to look for these planets.

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arXiv2019

K2-146: Discovery of Planet c, Precise Masses from Transit Timing, and Observed Precession

K2-146 is a mid-M dwarf ($M_\star = 0.331 \pm 0.009 M_\odot$; $R_\star = 0.330 \pm 0.010 R_\odot$), observed in Campaigns 5, 16, and 18 of the K2 mission. In Campaign 5 data, a single planet was discovered with an orbital period of $2.6$~days and large transit timing variations due to an unknown perturber. Here we analyze data from Campaigns 16 and 18, detecting the transits of a second planet, c, with an orbital period of $4.0$~days, librating in a 3:2 resonance with planet b. Large, anti-correlated timing variations of both planets exist due to their resonant perturbations. The planets have a mutual inclination of $2.40^\circ\pm0.25^\circ$, which torqued planet c more closely into our line-of-sight. Planet c was grazing in Campaign 5 and thus missed in previous searches; in Campaigns 16 and 18 it is fully transiting, and its transit depth is three times larger. We improve the stellar properties using data from Gaia DR2, and using dynamical fits find that both planets are sub-Neptunes: their masses are $5.77\pm0.18$ and $7.50\pm0.23 M_{\oplus}$ and their radii are $2.04\pm0.06$ and $2.19\pm0.07$ R$_\oplus$, respectively. These mass constraints set the precision record for small exoplanets (a few gas giants have comparable relative precision). These planets lie in the photoevaporation valley when viewed in Radius-Period space, but due to the low-luminosity M-dwarf host star, they lie among the atmosphere-bearing planets when viewed in Radius-Irradiation space. This, along with their densities being 60%-80% that of Earth, suggests that they may both have retained a substantial gaseous envelope.

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arXiv2019

Distinguishing Polar and Co-planar Circumbinary Exoplanets by Eclipsing Timing Variations

Circumbinary Planets (CBPs) can be misaligned with their host binary stars. Orbital dynamics, simulations, and recent observations of proto-planetary disks all suggest that the planet can stably orbit in a plane perpendicular to that of an eccentric host binary star (i.e., a polar orbit). No solid claim of detection of such a configuration has been made; the nine systems detected by the transit technique are nearly coplanar, but their discovery is also biased towards that configuration. Here, we develop Eclipse Timing Variations (ETVs) as a method to detect misaligned CBPs. We find that since apsidal motion (periastron precession) of the host binary is prograde for a coplanar planet and retrograde for a polar planet, the mean eclipse period of primary and secondary eclipses differ in a way that distinguishes those configurations. Secondly, the Eclipse Duration Variations (EDVs) vary in a way that can confirm that inference, over and against a polar model. Thirdly, the relative phasing of primary and secondary ETVs on the planet's orbital timescale also distinguishes the two configurations, which we explain analytically and quantify through a grid of numerical models. We apply these methods to Kepler-34, a transiting planet known to be nearly coplanar by detailed photodynamic modeling. In this system, we find that the binary eclipse times alone suffice to distinguish these orbital configurations, using the effects introduced here. Our work provides a tool for discovering potential polar CBPs, or misaligned CBPs of milder inclinations, from the existing ETV dataset of the Kepler, as well as future observations by TESS or PLATO.

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arXiv2019

Observations of the Kepler Field with TESS: Predictions for Planet Yield and Observable Features

We examine the ability of the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) to detect and improve our understanding of planetary systems in the Kepler field. By modeling the expected transits of all confirmed and candidate planets detected by Kepler as expected to be observed by TESS, we find that TESS has a greater than 50% chance of detecting 260 of these planets at the 3 sigma level in one sector of observations and an additional 120 planets in two sectors. Most of these are large planets in short orbits around their host stars, although a small number of rocky planets are expected to be recovered. Most of these systems have only one known transiting planet; in only ~5 percent of known multiply-transiting systems do we anticipate more than one planet to be recovered. When these planets are recovered, we expect TESS to be a powerful tool to characterizing transit timing variations. Using Kepler-88 (KOI-142) as an example, we show that TESS will improve measurements of planet-star mass ratios and orbital parameters, and significantly reduce the transit timing uncertainty in future years. Since TESS will be most sensitive to hot Jupiters, we research whether TESS will be able to detect tidal orbital decay in these systems. We find two confirmed planetary systems (Kepler-2 b and Kepler-13 b) and five candidate systems that will be good candidates to detect tidal decay.

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arXiv2019

Discovery of a Third Transiting Planet in the Kepler-47 Circumbinary System

Of the nine confirmed transiting circumbinary planet systems, only Kepler-47 is known to contain more than one planet. Kepler-47 b (the "inner planet") has an orbital period of 49.5 days and a radius of about $3\,R_{\oplus}$. Kepler-47 c (the "outer planet") has an orbital period of 303.2 days and a radius of about $4.7\,R_{\oplus}$. Here we report the discovery of a third planet, Kepler-47 d (the "middle planet"), which has an orbital period of 187.4 days and a radius of about $7\,R_{\oplus}$. The presence of the middle planet allows us to place much better constraints on the masses of all three planets, where the $1σ$ ranges are less than $26\,M_{\oplus}$, between $7-43\,M_{\oplus}$, and between $2-5\,M_{\oplus}$ for the inner, middle, and outer planets, respectively. The middle and outer planets have low bulk densities, with $ρ_{\rm middle} < 0.68$ g cm$^{-3}$ and $ρ_{\rm outer} < 0.26$ g cm$^{-3}$ at the $1σ$ level. The two outer planets are "tightly packed," assuming the nominal masses, meaning no other planet could stably orbit between them. All of the orbits have low eccentricities and are nearly coplanar, disfavoring violent scattering scenarios and suggesting gentle migration in the protoplanetary disk.

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arXiv2019

Transits of Inclined Exomoons - Hide and Seek and an Application to Kepler-1625

A Neptune-sized exomoon candidate was recently announced by Teachey & Kipping, orbiting a 287 day gas giant in the Kepler-1625 system. However, the system is poorly characterized and needs more observations to be confirmed, with the next potential transit in 2019 May. In this Letter, we aid observational follow up by analyzing the transit signature of exomoons. We derive a simple analytic equation for the transit probability and use it to demonstrate how exomoons may frequently avoid transit if their orbit is larger than the stellar radius and sufficiently misaligned. The nominal orbit for the moon in Kepler-1625 has both of these characteristics, and we calculate that it may only transit roughly 40% of the time. This means that approximately six non-transits would be required to rule out the moon's existence at 95% confidence. When an exomoon's impact parameter is displaced off the star, the planet's impact parameter is displaced the other way, so larger planet transit durations are typically positively correlated with missed exomoon transits. On the other hand, strong correlations do not exist between missed exomoon transits and transit timing variations of the planet. We also show that nodal precession does not change an exomoon's transit probability and that it can break a prograde-retrograde degeneracy.

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arXiv2017

Kepler-11 is a Solar Twin: Revising the Masses and Radii of Benchmark Planets Via Precise Stellar Characterization

The six planets of the Kepler-11 system are the archetypal example of a population of surprisingly low-density transiting planets revealed by the Kepler mission. We have determined the fundamental parameters and chemical composition of the Kepler-11 host star to unprecedented precision using an extremely high quality spectrum from Keck-HIRES (R$\simeq$67,000, S/N per pixel$\simeq$260 at 600 nm). Contrary to previously published results, our spectroscopic constraints indicate that Kepler-11 is a young main-sequence solar twin. The revised stellar parameters and new analysis raise the densities of the Kepler-11 planets by between 20-95% per planet, making them more typical of the emerging class of "puffy" close-in exoplanets. We obtain photospheric abundances of 22 elements and find that Kepler-11 has an abundance pattern similar to that of the Sun with a slightly higher overall metallicity. We additionally analyze the Kepler lightcurves using a photodynamical model and discuss the tension between spectroscopic and transit/TTV-based stellar density estimates.

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