arXiv subjects

Daniel C. M. Palumbo

Publications and source records attributed to Daniel C. M. Palumbo.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Spin inference with the Black Hole Explorer. I. Fisher information matrix forecast

General relativity predicts the presence of a thin, bright ring of light superimposed on the image of a black hole (the ``photon ring''), whose geometry is sensitive to the spin of the black hole. Detecting this photon ring in observations of nuclear supermassive black holes would yield insight into gravity in the strong-field regime as well as their growth histories. The Black Hole Explorer (BHEX) is a mission being developed to detect the photon ring for the first time, raising the question of how precisely we can constrain spin from its observations. We use the method of Fisher information matrices (FIMs) along with a simple dual-cone semi-analytic emission model to forecast BHEX spin posterior widths for the primary science targets (M87* and Sgr~A*) in a variety of configurations. We find that BHEX can constrain the dimensionless spin of its targets to a precision of $σ_{a_*} \ll 0.1$ after 30 orbits, even in the presence of significant systematic errors. We validate our results via numerical checks for stability and robustness, as well as synthetic data cross-validation to assess handling of covariances and prior information in the FIM against a full posterior exploration.

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arXiv2026

Resolving Nearby Supermassive Black Holes with the Black Hole Explorer

Recent Event Horizon Telescope results have demonstrated unique and transformative science in gravitational physics and black hole astrophysics enabled by event-horizon-scale imaging of supermassive black holes (SMBHs). Nevertheless, the angular resolution of current ground-based very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) arrays limits such studies to only two sources, precluding systematic investigations of horizon-scale emission across a nearby SMBH population. The proposed Black Hole Explorer (BHEX), a millimeter/submillimeter space VLBI mission, would overcome this limitation by delivering substantially higher angular resolution. Here, we present a series of simulated observations to assess a population of nearby horizon-scale targets accessible with BHEX. Based on a recently developed SMBH number density model, we find that BHEX could infer black hole masses for ~70-90 sources from size measurements, constrain magnetic field structures through linear polarization imaging for ~20-30 sources, and resolve black hole shadows for ~20-25 sources. Targeted observations of ~50 nearby SMBHs are expected to yield measurements for ~30 source sizes and ~10 shadows and linear-polarization patterns. These projections are supported by detailed imaging simulations of general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) models for eleven nearby SMBHs. Together, our results highlight BHEX as a powerful facility for revealing the demographics of SMBH properties across diverse accretion states, radio loudness, host galaxy environments, and viewing geometries.

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arXiv2026

The Role of Interferometric Phase in Measuring Black Hole Photon Rings

The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) captured the first images of a black hole using Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI). In the near future, extensions of the EHT such as the Black Hole Explorer (BHEX) will allow access to finer-scale features, such as a black hole's ''photon ring.'' In the Kerr spacetime, this image structure arises from strong gravitational lensing near the black hole that results in a series of increasingly demagnified images of each emitting region that exponentially converge to a limiting critical curve. Exotic black hole alternatives, such as wormholes, can introduce additional photon rings. Hence, precisely characterizing multi-ring images is a promising pathway for measuring black hole parameters, such as spin, as well as exploring non-Kerr spacetimes. Here, we examine the interferometric response of multi-ring systems using a series of 1) simple geometric toy models, 2) synthetic BHEX and EHT observations of geometric models, and 3) semi-analytic accretion models with ray-tracing in the Kerr spacetime. We find that interferometric amplitude is more sensitive to the shape of the photon ring, while interferometric phase is more sensitive to its displacement, which is most sensitive to black hole spin. We find that for models similar to Messier 87* (M87*), the relative displacement of the first strongly lensed image from the weakly lensed direct image is approximately $1\,μ{\rm as}$ per unit dimensionless spin, yielding an expected phase signature on a 25 G$λ$ baseline of $\sim44^\circ$ per unit spin.

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arXiv2026

Signatures of Black Hole Spin in Horizon-Scale Polarimetry

The angular momentum of a black hole, usually expressed in terms of a dimensionless "spin," both shapes the strong-field spacetime and provides a reservoir of rotational energy that can be exchanged with surrounding plasma. Very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) has now begun to resolve polarized emission on event-horizon scales. We distinguish polarimetric signatures of spin arising primarily from photon propagation in the Kerr spacetime from those mediated by horizon-threading electromagnetic fields and magnetized plasma dynamics. We trace the inference from VLBI correlations through Stokes images and compact summary statistics to constraints on the source and, ultimately, on spin. Within this framework, we review diagnostics linked to horizon regularity and magnetic-field winding, magnetically arrested accretion, electromagnetic energy extraction, jet-base and light-cylinder structure, and horizon and photon-ring polarization. Current Event Horizon Telescope observations constrain magnetic-field geometry, variability, source orientation, magnetic flux state, and aspects of the disk-jet connection more robustly than they constrain spin magnitude or sense. Future observing and modeling programs should prioritize combinations of polarimetric diagnostics with complementary systematics and test whether a common spin-dependent interpretation is supported across independent data products and plausible source models.

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arXiv2026

Multifrequency Synthesis via CHIBI: Colorful Hierarchical Interferometric Bayesian Imaging

From magnetized plasma of relativistic jets to dust grains within protoplanetary disks, we study the emission mechanisms of radio sources via their rich spectral structure. Multifrequency Synthesis (MFS) is a technique in which interferometric data at multiple frequencies are imaged simultaneously, resulting in a denser sampling of spatial scales, higher imaging fidelity, and tighter constraints on the source's spectral structure and evolution. We describe a new method of MFS imaging reconstruction in a hierarchical interferometric Bayesian inference framework, CHIBI. The model parametrization is based on the spectral behavior of synchrotron radiation, the emission mechanism dominating the radio emission observed from galactic nuclei. We show results of this method on observations of jet sources from the MOJAVE catalog with the Very Long Baseline Array, and showcase the prospects for MFS imaging of M87* with simulated data from the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) and future expansions such as the next generation EHT and the Black Hole Explorer. These demonstrations highlight the benefit of MFS to reconstruct higher-fidelity images and spectral index maps, producing scientifically richer results in a statistically grounded framework, implemented in Comrade.jl.

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arXiv2026

Photon Ring Astrometry I: A Simple Spin Measurement Technique for High-Resolution Images of M87*

The central supermassive black hole of the galaxy M87 is currently a target for precision spin measurement using high-resolution, horizon-scale imaging. Such observations aim to resolve the first lensed (${n}~{=}~{1}$) sub-image of the photon ring from the broader direct image. In this work, we identify a concrete observable -- the displacement between the centers of the ${n}~{=}~{1}$ photon-ring sub-image and the direct image -- and propose its use in a simple spin-measurement technique. Leveraging the assumption that the observed large-scale jet of M87 is aligned with the black-hole spin axis, we separate the relative position of the photon ring into components parallel and transverse to the projected spin axis, normalizing both components with respect to the measured diameter of the ${n}~{=}~{1}$ sub-image. We show that the parallel shift is primarily determined by inclination and emission radius, while the transverse shift is tightly correlated with inclination and spin. We demonstrate these effects both in a simple geometric model (to explain the underlying physics) and in GRMHD simulations with magnetically arrested disks (to provide realistic instantiations of the effect). We find that a relative astrometric resolution of ${\lesssim}~{0.1\;μ\rm{as}}$ is sufficient to constrain the spin to better than 9% if the accretion flow is prograde or 22% if the flow is retrograde. If the direction of the accretion flow is undetermined, the spin can be constrained to within 26%. More generally, this identifies relative photon ring astrometry as a promising method to constrain the underlying spacetime geometry and introduces a spin-constraint technique that does not rely on geometric modeling of the observed emission.

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arXiv2026

Constraining Black Hole Parameters from Shadow and Inner-Shadow Morphology Considering Effects from Thick Disk Accretion Flows

We study the effects of emission geometry on the capability to constrain black hole parameters from measurements of the shadow and inner-shadow of a Reissner-Nordström black hole. We investigate the capability to constrain mass, charge, observer inclination, and emission co-latitude from images of black hole accretion flows that would arise from thick and thin accretion disks. We confirm previous studies that have shown that independent radii measurements of the shadow and inner-shadow can constrain black hole parameters if the viewing inclination is known, but find that it is only possible if the true emission geometry is also assumed. We study the constraining capabilities of the shadow and inner-shadow observations of M87* and Sgr A* like systems within the context of the BHEX and NgEHT future observatories.

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arXiv2026

Measuring the Black Hole and Accretion Parameters of Sagittarius A* from EHT Observations using a Semi-Analytic Model

The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) Collaboration produced the first image of the apparent shadow of the central black hole of Sagittarius\,A$^*$ (\sgra). \sgra source structure varies significantly on timescales shorter than the duration of an observation, preventing improved data coverage through Earth rotation aperture synthesis. This rapid variability provides the opportunity to quantify intrinsic variability and separate time-variable emission features from stable signatures of strong gravity and the accretion environment. To infer the properties \sgra and its surrounding accretion flow, we perform Bayesian inference on a series of EHT data segments (``snapshots''). We directly fit parameters of a semi-analytic emission model jointly with complex station gains to snapshot visibilities, then extract estimates of the time-averaged, persistent source structure and temporal variability by stacking snapshots in a Bayesian hierarchical model. This approach successfully reproduces parameters of General Relativistic Magnetohydrodynamics simulations using synthetic EHT observations. Even with physically motivated assumptions about the \sgra environment, black hole spin and magnetic field parameters are poorly constrained by 2017 EHT observations. Our inference constrains other parameters, favoring a nearly face-on observer inclination ($θ_{\rm o} = 9.2\degree \pm 3.6 \degree \pm_{\rm v} 11.6\degree$), an emission peak near the horizon ($R_{\rm peak} = 4.9 \pm 0.1 \pm_{\rm v} 0.5\,GM/c^2$), near-vertical projected spin position angle ($p.a. = 7.3\degree \pm 7.08 \degree \pm_{\rm v} 43.5\degree$ counterclockwise from vertical), and dominant emission $43.4\degree \pm 2.0\degree \pm_{\rm v} 5.9\degree$ above the equatorial plane, where we separate average structure uncertainty ($\pm$) from the impacts of temporal variability and model misspecification ($\pm_{\rm v}$).

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arXiv2025

Photon Orbit Signatures in Spectra of Black Hole Accretion Disks

Light orbiting an accreting black hole may impact the disk or jet multiple times before escaping to the observer, at a variety of angles with respect to the local magnetic field. In this letter, we characterize the imprints of these long path lengths and disparate magnetic field impacts in synchrotron spectra of hot accretion disks, as the strongly lensed ``photon ring'' exhibits a higher synchrotron turnover frequency in each lensed sub-image. We apply tools of varying complexity: first, we develop a minimal, unlensed one-zone model that isolates the first two sub-images of the accretion flow. By varying the magnetic field geometry encountered by each sub-image, we show that distinctive spectral signatures emerge in both total intensity and fractional linear polarization. Second, we examine a semi-analytic radiatively inefficient accretion flow (RIAF) model, in which we find that there is generally a frequency at which the first indirect image outshines the direct image even in total flux density. Lastly, we demonstrate that even general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) simulation snapshots show this spectral character. We find a typical correction to the unresolved spectrum of order $10\%$ near the turnover frequency that grows with increasing viewing inclination, growing to order unity at higher frequencies. We predict sensitive spectral studies of the cores of Messier 87* and Sagittarius A* at frequencies exceeding $300$ GHz to constrain the existence of the photon ring even without imaging, with prospects for photon ring detection even in other sources with unresolved shadows.

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arXiv2025

Inferring Black Hole Spin from Interferometric Measurements of the First Photon Ring: A Geometric Approach

Accurately inferring black hole spin is crucial for understanding black hole dynamics and their astrophysical environments. In this work, we outline a geometric method for spin estimation by using the interferometric shape of the first photon ring ($n=1$) as an approximation to the critical curve, which, given an assumed value of the black hole inclination, is then mapped to a spin value. While future space-based missions will capture a wealth of data on the first photon ring--including the full angle-dependent diameter, angular brightness profile, and astrometric offset from the $n=0$ ring--our analysis is restricted to using only two angle-dependent diameters to compute its shape asymmetry and infer spin. Focusing on low inclinations and moderate-to-high spins, we test the method across various emission models, baselines, and noise sources, including a mock space-based observation. Although the size of the $n=1$ ring depends on the emission model, its interferometric shape remains a robust spin probe at low inclinations. We find that the inferred asymmetry of the $n=1$ image may be biased by the critical curve morphology, and it can be heavily skewed by the presence of noise, whether astrophysical or instrumental. In low-noise limits at low viewing inclination, significant contributions from the $n=0$ image at short baselines may lead to a downward bias in asymmetry estimates. While our method can estimate high spins in noise-free time-averaged images, increasing the noise and astrophysical variability degrades the resulting constraints, providing only lower bounds on the spin when applied to synthetic observed data. Remarkably, even using only the ring's asymmetry, we can establish lower bounds on the spin, underscoring the promise of photon ring-based spin inference in future space-based very long baseline interferometry missions, such as the proposed Black Hole Explorer.

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arXiv2025

Accessing a New Population of Supermassive Black Holes with Extensions to the Event Horizon Telescope

The Event Horizon Telescope has produced resolved images of the supermassive black holes Sgr A* and M87*, which present the largest shadows on the sky. In the next decade, technological improvements and extensions to the array will enable access to a greater number of sources, unlocking studies of a larger population of supermassive black holes through direct imaging. In this paper, we identify 12 of the most promising sources beyond Sgr A* and M87* based on their angular size and millimeter flux density. For each of these sources, we make theoretical predictions for their observable properties by ray tracing general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic models appropriately scaled to each target's mass, distance, and flux density. We predict that these sources would have somewhat higher Eddington ratios than M87*, which may result in larger optical and Faraday depths than previous EHT targets. Despite this, we find that visibility amplitude size constraints can plausibly recover masses within a factor of 2, although the unknown jet contribution remains a significant uncertainty. We find that the linearly polarized structure evolves substantially with Eddington ratio, with greater evolution at larger inclinations, complicating potential spin inferences for inclined sources. We discuss the importance of 345 GHz observations, milli-Jansky baseline sensitivity, and independent inclination constraints for future observations with upgrades to the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) through ground updates with the next-generation EHT (ngEHT) program and extensions to space through the Black Hole Explorer (BHEX).

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arXiv2025

Orbit design for mitigating interstellar scattering effects in Earth-space VLBI observations of Sgr A*

(abridged) The black hole Sagittarius A* (Sgr A*) is a prime target for next-generation Earth-space very-long-baseline interferometry missions such as the Black Hole Explorer (BHEX), which aims to probe baselines of the order of 20 G$λ$. At these baselines, Sgr A* observations will be affected by the diffractive scattering effects from the interstellar medium (ISM). Therefore, we study how different parameter choices for turbulence in the ISM affect BHEX's observational capabilities to probe strong lensing features of Sgr A*. By using a simple geometric model of concentric Gaussian rings for Sgr A*'s photon ring signal and observing at 320 GHz, we find that the BHEX-ALMA baseline has the required sensitivity to observe Sgr A* for a broad range of values of the power-law index of density fluctuations in the ISM and the inner scale of turbulence. For other baselines with moderate sensitivities, a strong need for observations at shorter scales of $\approx$ 13.5 G$λ$ is identified. For this purpose, an orbit migration scheme is proposed. It is modeled using both chemical propulsion (CP)-based Hohmann transfers and electric propulsion (EP)-based orbit raising with the result that a CP-based transfer can be performed in a matter of hours, but with a significantly higher fuel requirement as compared to EP, which however requires a transfer time of around 6 weeks. The consequences of these orbits for probing Sgr A*'s spacetime is studied by quantifying the spatial resolution, temporal resolution and the angular sampling of the photon ring signal in the Fourier coverage of each of these orbits. We show that higher orbits isolate spacetime features while sacrificing both, signal lost to scattering and temporal resolution, but gain greater access to the morphology of the photon ring.

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arXiv2025

Limb-Brightened Jet in M87 from Anisotropic Nonthermal Electrons

Very long baseline interferometry observations reveal that relativistic jets like the one in M87 have a limb-brightened, double-edged structure. Analytic and numerical models struggle to reproduce this limb-brightening. We propose a model in which we invoke anisotropy in the distribution function of synchrotron-emitting nonthermal electrons such that electron velocities are preferentially directed parallel to magnetic field lines, as suggested by recent particle-in-cell simulations of electron acceleration and the effects of synchrotron cooling. We assume that the energy injected into nonthermal electrons is proportional to the jet Poynting flux, and we account for synchrotron cooling via a broken power-law energy distribution. We implement our emission model in both general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) simulations and axisymmetric force-free electrodynamic (GRFFE) jet models and produce simulated jet images at multiple scales and frequencies using polarized general relativistic radiative transfer. We find that the synchrotron emission is concentrated parallel to the local helical magnetic field and that this feature produces limb-brightened jet images on scales ranging from tens of microarcseconds to hundreds of milliarcseconds in M87. We present theoretical predictions for horizon-scale M87 jet images at 230 and 345 GHz that can be tested with next generation instruments. Due to the scale-invariance of the GRMHD and GRFFE models, our emission prescription can be applied to other targets and serve as a foundation for a unified description of limb-brightened synchrotron images of extragalactic jets.

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arXiv2024

Supermassive Black Hole Spin Constraints from Polarimetry in an Equatorial Disk Model

The Event Horizon Telescope has released polarized images of the supermassive black holes Messier 87* (M87*) and Sagittarius A* (Sgr A*) accretion disks. As more images are produced, our understanding of the average polarized emission from near the event horizon improves. In this letter, we use a semi-analytic model for optically thin, equatorial emission near a Kerr black hole to study how spin constraints follow from measurements of the average polarization spiral pitch angle. We focus on the case of M87* and explore how the direct, weakly lensed image spiral is coupled to the strongly lensed indirect image spiral, and how a precise measurement of both provides a powerful spin tracer. We find a generic result that spin twists the direct and indirect image polarization in opposite directions. Using a grid search over model parameters, we find a strong dependence of the resulting spin constraint on plasma properties near the horizon. Grid constraints suggest that, under reasonable assumptions for the accretion disk, a measurement of the direct and indirect image spiral pitch angles to $\pm 5^\circ$ yields a dimensionless spin amplitude measurement with uncertainty $σ_{|a_*|}\sim0.25$ for radially infalling models, but otherwise provides only weak constraints; an error of $1^\circ$ can reach $σ_{|a_*|}\sim0.15$. We also find that a well-constrained rotation measure greatly improves spin measurements. Assuming that equatorial velocity and magnetic field are oppositely oriented, we find that the observed M87* polarization pattern favors models with strong radial velocity components, which are close to optimal for future spin measurements.

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arXiv2024

Photon ring polarimetry with next-generation black hole imaging I. M87*

The near-horizon region of a black hole impacts linear (LP) and circular polarization (CP) through strong lensing of photons, adding large-scale symmetries and anti-symmetries to the polarized image. To probe the signature of lensing in polarimetry, we utilise a geometric model of concentric, Gaussian rings of equal radius to investigate the transition in the Fourier plane at which the photon ring signal begins to dominate over the direct image. We find analytic, closed-form expressions for the transition radii in total intensity, LP, and CP, wherein the resultant formulae are composed of ratios of tunable image parameters, with the overall "scale" set primarily by the thickness of the direct image. Using these formulae, we compute the transition radii for time-averaged images of M87* simulations at 230 GHz, studying both Magnetically Arrested Disc (MAD) and Standard and Normal Evolution (SANE) configurations for various spin and electron heating models. We compare geometric values to radii obtained directly from the simulations through a coherent averaging scheme. We find that nearly all MAD models have a photon ring-dominated CP signal on long baselines shorter than the Earth diameter at 230 GHz. Across favored models for the M87* accretion flow identified by EHT polarimetric constraints, we quantify the sensitivity and antenna size requirements for the next-generation EHT and the Black Hole Explorer orbiter to detect these features. We find that the stringent requirements for CP favour explorations using long baselines on the ground, while LP remains promising on Earth-space baselines.

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arXiv2024

Multi-messenger Probes of Supermassive Black Hole Spin Evolution

Using the semi-analytic model Serotina, we investigate the cosmic spin evolution of supermassive black holes incorporating recent results from general relativistic magnetohydrodynamics simulations of spin-down from relativistic jets. We compare several variations of our model with compiled black hole spin measurements derived from X-ray reflection spectroscopy, correcting for a bias arising from the spin-dependent radiative efficiency of accretion flows. We show that the observed spin distribution is in agreement with a model that includes jet-driven spin-down, a key mechanism that acts to modulate spins across cosmic time at both high and very low specific accretion rates. The data also clearly prefer models with coherent accretion over models in which accretion disks rapidly switch from prograde to retrograde. We further predict spin distributions accessible via spatially resolved event horizons by the next-generation Event Horizon Telescope (ngEHT) and Black Hole Explorer (BHEX), as well as gravitational waves by the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA), each of which offer unique and distinct windows into the population of spinning black holes. Jet-driven spin-down is most strongly imprinted on the abundance of very highly spinning objects in our model. In addition, we show that the spin distribution sampled by LISA events may contain a signature of the natal spin distribution of heavy seeds, but not of light seeds, offering additional discrimination between these seeding pathways. Spin distributions from these future observed samples can be used to constrain the detailed physical properties of the accretion flow on horizon scales around supermassive black holes.

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arXiv2024

Multifrequency Analysis of Favored Models for the Messier 87* Accretion Flow

The polarized images of the supermassive black hole Messier 87* (M87*) produced by the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) provide a direct view of the near-horizon emission from a black hole accretion and jet system. The EHT theoretical analysis of the polarized M87* images compared thousands of snapshots from numerical models with a variety of spins, magnetization states, viewing inclinations, and electron energy distributions, and found a small subset consistent with the observed image. In this article, we examine two models favored by EHT analyses: a magnetically arrested disk with moderate retrograde spin and a magnetically arrested disk with high prograde spin. Both have electron distribution functions which lead to strong depolarization by cold electrons. We ray trace five snapshots from each model at 22, 43, 86, 230, 345, and 690 GHz to forecast future VLBI observations and examine limitations in numerical models. We find that even at low frequencies where optical and Faraday rotation depths are large, approximately rotationally symmetric polarization persists, suggesting that shallow depths dominate the polarization signal. However, morphology and spectra suggest that the assumed thermal electron distribution is not adequate to describe emission from the jet. We find 86 GHz images show a ring-like shape determined by a combination of plasma and spacetime imprints, smaller in diameter than recent results from the Global mm-VLBI array. We find that the photon ring becomes more apparent with increasing frequency, and is more apparent in the retrograde model, leading to large differences between models in asymmetry and polarization structure.

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arXiv2024

Prospects for the Detection of the Sgr A* Photon Ring with next-generation Event Horizon Telescope Polarimetry

The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) has imaged two supermassive black holes, Messier 87* (M87*) and Sagittarius A* (Sgr A*), using very-long-baseline interferometry (VLBI). The theoretical analyses of each source suggest magnetically arrested disk (MAD) accretion viewed at modest inclination. These MADs exhibit rotationally symmetric polarization of synchrotron emission caused by symmetries of their ordered magnetic fields. We leverage these symmetries to study the detectability of the black hole photon ring, which imposes known antisymmetries in polarization. In this letter, we propose a novel observational strategy based on coherent baseline-averaging of polarization ratios in a rotating basis to detect the photon ring with 345 GHz VLBI from the Earth's surface. Using synthetic observations from a likely future EHT, we find a reversal in polarimetric phases on long baselines that reveals the presence of the Sgr\,A* photon ring in a MAD system at 345 GHz, a critical frequency for lengthening baselines and overcoming interstellar scattering. We use our synthetic data and analysis pipeline to estimate requirements for the EHT using a new metric: ${\rm SNR}_{\rm PR}$, the signal-to-noise ratio of this polarimetric reversal signal. We identify long, coherent integrations using frequency phase transfer as a critical enabling technique for the detection of the photon ring, and predict a ${\rm SNR}_{\rm PR} \sim 2-3$ detection using proposed ngEHT parameters and currently-favored models for the Sgr A* accretion flow. We find that higher sensitivity, rather than denser Fourier sampling, is the most critical requirement for polarimetric detection of the photon ring.

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