arXiv subjects

Daniel D. B. Koll

Publications and source records attributed to Daniel D. B. Koll.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Evidence for an Atmosphere on the Ultra-Short Period super-Earth HD 3167 b

'Lava worlds'-Earth-sized planets hot enough (Teq >~ 1100 K) to melt their dayside silicate surfaces-have emerged as promising candidates for atmospheric detection and characterization. Thermal emission observations show an apparent dichotomy: the hottest lava worlds have colder daysides than the temperature of a maximally emitting bare rock, indicating the likely presence of thick and/or reflective atmospheres while the coldest ones do not. However, where in instellation flux this potential bifurcation occurs is uncertain. We present a JWST MIRI LRS eclipse of the ultra-short period (USP) lava world HD 3167 b (Teq = 1786 K, R = 1.6 Rearth, P = 0.96 d) that helps bridge this gap. We measure the white light eclipse depth to be 38 +/- 11 ppm, more than 5 sigma lower than the expected eclipse depth of a dark, maximally hot bare rock. We use this to derive a dayside brightness temperature that is best explained by the presence of an atmosphere that cools the dayside by reflecting incoming starlight and/or efficiently redistributing heat to the planet's nightside. An atmosphere is further compatible with the planet's slight under-density compared to an Earth-like composition. The corresponding dayside emission spectrum is not precise enough to constrain atmospheric composition, motivating follow-up spectroscopic observations with JWST NIRSpec. Lastly, we use our observation and existing data to refine key planetary parameters of the HD 3167 system. HD 3167 b is currently the least irradiated USP super-Earth with evidence for an atmosphere.

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arXiv2026

Magnetic field strengths of hot giant exoplanets consistent with Solar System values

Magnetic fields are ubiquitous in the universe. They play a key role in shaping the activity of stars, the habitability of rocky planets, and the long-term retention of planetary atmospheres. Theoretical scaling laws are largely constrained by the limited set of stars and Solar System planets, leading to a wide range of possible values for hot giant planets outside of the Solar System from fractions of the Jovian field to orders of magnitude larger. Ultra-hot Jupiters, with their highly ionised atmospheres, provide a new avenue to probe magnetic effects, as their atmospheric circulation could be directly sensitive to atmospheric magnetic field strength. Using high-spectral resolution observations targeting the iron lines of ultra-hot Jupiters we measure the Doppler shift and thus the wind speed of seven transiting ultra-hot Jupiters. We find a clear decrease of wind speed with increasing planetary temperature, a trend inconsistent with purely hydrodynamic mechanisms but naturally reproduced by magnetic drag. From this relation we estimate the possible strength of magnetic fields of hot giant planets to at most a few gauss - comparable to the Jovian equatorial field. Our results support the idea that magnetic fields affect the atmospheric circulation of ultra-hot Jupiters and could provide a crucial benchmark for scaling laws used to predict magnetic fields in exoplanets, from hot Jupiters to rocky Earths with additional implications for future direct observations.

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arXiv2026

Reinterpreting the JWST Observations of 55 Cancri e with a Non-Grey General Circulation Model

Recent observations of 55 Cancri e suggest an atmosphere rich in CO or CO$_2$ (Hu et al. 2024); other observations indicate the planet's eclipse depth is highly variable (e.g. Patel et al. 2024). So far, these observations have only been interpreted using 1D models without self-consistent heat redistribution, as the planet's extreme temperatures make it inaccessible to most 3D models. Here we perform cloud-free GCM simulations of 55 Cancri e using custom correlated-$k$ coefficients developed from the ExoMol database. Our best-fit simulations match the JWST spectra from Hu et al. (2024) well, favoring an atmosphere that is both thick ($\ge$ 10 bar) and CO$_2$-rich ($>1\%$ CO$_2$ volume mixing ratio), while ruling out thin ($<$ 10 bar) and pure-CO/CO$_2$-poor atmosphere, which were previously proposed based on 1D models (Hu et al. 2024; Zilinskas et al. 2025). We also find large-scale atmospheric dynamics, i.e. weather, is insufficient to explain the observed variability. A thick, CO$_2$-rich atmosphere implies that 55 Cancri e likely formed with significantly more volatiles than Earth and Venus. In addition, a thick atmosphere makes it unlikely that the planet's variability is caused by transient outgassing (Heng 2023), favoring other variability mechanisms (e.g. clouds). Our work provides model constraints for upcoming JWST observations of 55 Cancri e, and highlights the importance of interpreting thermal emission observations with self-consistent 3D models.

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arXiv2026

The dark and featureless surface of rocky exoplanet LHS 3844 b from JWST mid-infrared spectroscopy

JWST has opened a new era in the study of rocky exoplanets, enabling direct characterization of their surfaces with mid-infrared spectroscopy. Different types of rock have distinct spectral features that are diagnostic of the chemical composition and other physical properties like surface texture. Measurements of these features can provide valuable clues about a planet's geologic history and interior processes. Here we report a JWST 5-12 micron thermal emission spectrum for the rocky exoplanet LHS 3844 b. It is best matched by a dark, low-silica surface, such as basalt or other olivine-rich materials. The spectrum rules out fresh powder surfaces; however, space weathering can darken the powders and make them more consistent with the data. The data also disfavor trace concentrations of CO$_2$ or SO$_2$ gas (with 5-sigma and 3-sigma upper limits of 100 mbar and 10 microbar, respectively). Taken together, these results are well fit by an old, space-weathered surface with no evidence of accumulated volcanic gases.

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arXiv2025

Bistability, Oscillations, and Multistability on Hycean Planets

Hycean planets are hypothetical exoplanets characterized by $H_2O$ oceans and $H_2$-rich atmospheres. These planets are high-priority targets for biosignature searches, as they combine abundant surface liquid water with easy-to-characterize $H_2$-rich atmospheres. Perhaps their most unusual climate feature is convective inhibition, which can dramatically alter a planet's temperature structure. However, so far hycean planets have mostly been investigated using 1D models that do not account for convective inhibition, and its effects are still poorly understood. This work develops pen-and-paper theory to analyze the effects of moist convective inhibition on hycean planets. The theory is tested and verified against a 1D radiative-convective model. We show that hycean planets near the onset of convective inhibition can exhibit either bistability or oscillations, due to the inhibition layer's trapping of heat and moisture. Meanwhile, hot hycean planets exhibit multistability, in which the inhibition layer and surface climate show multiple stable equilibria due to the lack of constraints on the water cycle inside the inhibition layer. The water cycle inside the inhibition layer is influenced by numerous processes that are challenging to resolve in 1D, including turbulent diffusion, convective overshoot and large-scale circulations. Our results demonstrate that hycean planets have unexpectedly rich climate dynamics. Meanwhile, previous claims about hycean planets should be treated with caution until confirmed with more self-consistent 1D and 3D models; this includes the claim that K2-18b might be habitable, and the proposal to infer $H_2O$ oceans on sub-Neptunes from JWST measurements of chemical species in their upper atmospheres.

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arXiv2025

Impact of Subsurface Temperature Gradients on Emission Spectra of Airless Exoplanets: the Solid-state Greenhouse and Anti-Greenhouse

An emerging goal of exoplanet science is to constrain the surface composition of airless exoplanets. Without the protection of an atmosphere, these planets are likely covered by a powder-like regolith, similar to the Moon. Laboratory studies show that, under vacuum conditions, such regoliths can develop subsurface temperature gradients, also known as the solid-state greenhouse effect. This effect can significantly modify the emission features of airless bodies, but its potential impact on exoplanets is still unexplored. Here we derive analytic solutions of the two-stream radiative transfer equations with scattering, absorption, plus emission, and combine them with Mie theory calculations to model subsurface temperature gradients and emission spectra of airless exoplanets. The results show exo-regoliths can develop strong solid-state greenhouse or anti-greenhouse effects, with temperature gradients $>200$~K in the upper-most subsurface ($\mathcal{O}(100)μ$m). These temperature gradients alter surface emission features, modify secondary eclipse depths by up to $\sim50\%$, and can produce higher-than-blackbody emission at some wavelengths. In addition, we study whether subsurface temperature gradients can be disentangled from other microscopic effects, such as changes in space weathering or particle size. At least in some cases, the co-existence of these effects makes it essentially impossible to distinguish different surface compositions within the precisions achievable by JWST. Overall, subsurface temperature gradients thus open potentially new ways to characterize surfaces of airless exoplanets, but they also complicate the interpretation of airless exoplanet spectra. In either case, their effect can be important and should be included in future modeling studies.

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arXiv2025

First JWST thermal phase curves of temperate terrestrial exoplanets reveal no thick atmosphere around TRAPPIST-1 b and c

We report JWST/MIRI 15 $μ$m phase curves of TRAPPIST-1 b and c, revealing thermal emission consistent with their irradiation levels, assuming no efficient heat redistribution. We find that TRAPPIST-1 b shows a high dayside brightness temperature (490 $\pm$ 17 K), no significantly detectable nightside emission ($F_{\rm b, Night, max}$ = $39_{-27}^{+55}$ ppm), and no phase offset -- features consistent with a low-albedo, airless ultramafic rocky surface. TRAPPIST-1 c exhibits a lower dayside brightness temperature (369 $\pm$ 23 K), and a nightside flux statistically indistinguishable from that of TRAPPIST-1 b ($F_{\rm c, Night, max}$ = $62_{-43}^{+60}$ ppm). Atmosphere models with surface pressures $\geq$1 bar and efficient greenhouse effects are strongly disfavoured for both planets. TRAPPIST-1 b is unlikely to possess any substantial atmosphere, while TRAPPIST-1 c may retain a tenuous, greenhouse-poor O$_2$-dominated atmosphere or be similarly airless with a more reflective surface. These results suggest divergent evolutionary pathways or atmospheric loss processes, despite similar compositions. These measurements tightly constrain atmosphere retention in the inner TRAPPIST-1 system.

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arXiv2025

Population-level Hypothesis Testing with Rocky Planet Emission Data: A Tentative Trend in the Brightness Temperatures of M-Earths

Determining which rocky exoplanets have atmospheres, and why, is a key goal for the James Webb Space Telescope. So far, emission observations of individual rocky exoplanets orbiting M stars (M-Earths) have not provided definitive evidence for atmospheres. Here, we synthesize emission data for M-Earths and find a trend in measured brightness temperatures (ratioed to its theoretical maximum value) as a function of instellation. However, the statistical evidence of this trend is dependent on the choice of stellar model, and we consider its identification tentative. We show that this trend can be explained by either the onset of thin/tenuous (<1 bar) CO2-rich atmospheres on colder worlds, or a population of bare rocks with stronger space weathering and/or coarser regolith on closer-in worlds. Such grain coarsening may be caused by sintering near the melting point of rock or frequent volcanic resurfacing. Furthermore, we highlight considerations when testing rocky planet hypotheses at the population level, including the choice of instrument, stellar modeling, and how brightness temperatures are derived. We also find that fresh (unweathered) fine-grained surfaces can serve as a false positive to the detection of moderate atmospheric heat redistribution through eclipse observations. However, we argue that such surfaces are unlikely given the ubiquity of space weathering in the Solar System, the low albedo of Solar System airless bodies, and the high stellar wind environments of M-Earths. Emission data from a larger sample of M-Earths will be able to confirm or reject this tentative trend and diagnose its cause through spectral characterization.

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arXiv2024

Novel Atmospheric Dynamics Shape Inner Edge of Habitable Zone Around White Dwarfs

White dwarfs offer a unique opportunity to search nearby stellar systems for signs of life, but the habitable zone around these stars is still poorly understood. Since white dwarfs are compact stars with low luminosity, any planets in their habitable zone should be tidally locked, like planets around M-dwarfs. Unlike planets around M-dwarfs, however, habitable white dwarf planets have to rotate very rapidly, with orbital periods ranging from hours to several days. Here we use the ExoCAM Global Climate Model (GCM) to investigate the inner edge of the habitable zone (HZ) around white dwarfs. Our simulations show habitable planets with ultrashort orbital periods ($P\lesssim$1 day) enter a ``bat rotation" regime, which differs from typical atmospheric circulation regimes around M dwarfs. Bat rotators feature mean equatorial subrotation and a displacement of the surface's hottest regions from the equator towards the midlatitudes. We qualitatively explain the onset of bat rotation using shallow water theory. The resulting circulation shifts increase dayside cloud cover and decrease stratospheric water vapor, expanding the white dwarf habitable zone by $\sim$50\% compared to estimates based on 1D models. The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) should be able to quickly characterize bat rotators around nearby white dwarfs thanks to their distinct thermal phase curves. Our work underlines that tidally locked planets on ultrashort orbits may exhibit unique atmospheric dynamics, and guides future habitability studies of white dwarf systems.

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arXiv2024

Detection of an Earth-sized exoplanet orbiting the nearby ultracool dwarf star SPECULOOS-3

Located at the bottom of the main sequence, ultracool dwarf stars are widespread in the solar neighbourhood. Nevertheless, their extremely low luminosity has left their planetary population largely unexplored, and only one of them, TRAPPIST-1, has so far been found to host a transiting planetary system. In this context, we present the SPECULOOS project's detection of an Earth-sized planet in a 17 h orbit around an ultracool dwarf of M6.5 spectral type located 16.8 pc away. The planet's high irradiation (16 times that of Earth) combined with the infrared luminosity and Jupiter-like size of its host star make it one of the most promising rocky exoplanet targets for detailed emission spectroscopy characterization with JWST. Indeed, our sensitivity study shows that just ten secondary eclipse observations with the Mid-InfraRed Instrument/Low-Resolution Spectrometer on board JWST should provide strong constraints on its atmospheric composition and/or surface mineralogy.

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arXiv2024

Super-Earth LHS3844b is tidally locked

Short period exoplanets on circular orbits are thought to be tidally locked into synchronous rotation. If tidally locked, these planets must possess permanent day- and nightsides, with extreme irradiation on the dayside and none on the nightside. However, so far the tidal locking hypothesis for exoplanets is supported by little to no empirical evidence. Previous work showed that the super-Earth LHS 3844b likely has no atmosphere, which makes it ideal for constraining the planet's rotation. Here we revisit the Spitzer phase curve of LHS 3844b with a thermal model of an atmosphere-less planet and analyze the impact of non-synchronous rotation, eccentricity, tidal dissipation, and surface composition. Based on the lack of observed strong tidal heating we rule out rapid non-synchronous rotation (including a Mercury-like 3:2 spin-orbit resonance) and constrain the planet's eccentricity to less than 0.001 (more circular than Io's orbit). In addition, LHS 3844b's phase curve implies that the planet either still experiences weak tidal heating via a small-but-nonzero eccentricity (requiring an undetected orbital companion), or that its surface has been darkened by space weathering; of these two scenarios we consider space weathering more likely. Our results thus support the hypothesis that short period rocky exoplanets are tidally locked, and further show that space weathering can significantly modify the surfaces of atmosphere-less exoplanets.

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arXiv2023

Potential Atmospheric Compositions of TRAPPIST-1 c constrained by JWST/MIRI Observations at 15 $μ$m

The first JWST observations of TRAPPIST-1 c showed a secondary eclipse depth of 421+/-94 ppm at 15 um, which is consistent with a bare rock surface or a thin, O2-dominated, low CO2 atmosphere (Zieba et al. 2023). Here, we further explore potential atmospheres for TRAPPIST-1 c by comparing the observed secondary eclipse depth to synthetic spectra of a broader range of plausible environments. To self-consistently incorporate the impact of photochemistry and atmospheric composition on atmospheric thermal structure and predicted eclipse depth, we use a two-column climate model coupled to a photochemical model, and simulate O2-dominated, Venus-like, and steam atmospheres. We find that a broader suite of plausible atmospheric compositions are also consistent with the data. For lower pressure atmospheres (0.1 bar), our O2-CO2 atmospheres produce eclipse depths within 1$σ$ of the data, consistent with the modeling results of Zieba et al. (2023). However, for higher-pressure atmospheres, our models produce different temperature-pressure profiles and are less pessimistic, with 1-10 bar O2, 100 ppm CO2 models within 2.0-2.2$σ$ of the measured secondary eclipse depth, and up to 0.5% CO2 within 2.9$σ$. Venus-like atmospheres are still unlikely. For thin O2 atmospheres of 0.1 bar with a low abundance of CO2 ($\sim$100 ppm), up to 10% water vapor can be present and still provide an eclipse depth within 1$σ$ of the data. We compared the TRAPPIST-1 c data to modeled steam atmospheres of $\leq$ 3 bar, which are 1.7-1.8$σ$ from the data and not conclusively ruled out. More data will be required to discriminate between possible atmospheres, or to more definitively support the bare rock hypothesis.

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arXiv2023

No thick carbon dioxide atmosphere on the rocky exoplanet TRAPPIST-1 c

Seven rocky planets orbit the nearby dwarf star TRAPPIST-1, providing a unique opportunity to search for atmospheres on small planets outside the Solar System (Gillon et al., 2017). Thanks to the recent launch of JWST, possible atmospheric constituents such as carbon dioxide (CO2) are now detectable (Morley et al., 2017, Lincowski et al., 2018}. Recent JWST observations of the innermost planet TRAPPIST-1 b showed that it is most probably a bare rock without any CO2 in its atmosphere (Greene et al., 2023). Here we report the detection of thermal emission from the dayside of TRAPPIST-1 c with the Mid-Infrared Instrument (MIRI) on JWST at 15 micron. We measure a planet-to-star flux ratio of fp/fs = 421 +/- 94 parts per million (ppm) which corresponds to an inferred dayside brightness temperature of 380 +/- 31 K. This high dayside temperature disfavours a thick, CO2-rich atmosphere on the planet. The data rule out cloud-free O2/CO2 mixtures with surface pressures ranging from 10 bar (with 10 ppm CO2) to 0.1 bar (pure CO2). A Venus-analogue atmosphere with sulfuric acid clouds is also disfavoured at 2.6 sigma confidence. Thinner atmospheres or bare-rock surfaces are consistent with our measured planet-to-star flux ratio. The absence of a thick, CO2-rich atmosphere on TRAPPIST-1 c suggests a relatively volatile-poor formation history, with less than 9.5 +7.5 -2.3 Earth oceans of water. If all planets in the system formed in the same way, this would indicate a limited reservoir of volatiles for the potentially habitable planets in the system.

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arXiv2022

The Detectability of Rocky Planet Surface and Atmosphere Composition with JWST: The Case of LHS 3844b

The spectroscopic characterization of terrestrial exoplanets will be made possible for the first time with JWST. One challenge to characterizing such planets is that it is not known a priori whether they possess optically thick atmospheres or even any atmospheres altogether. But this challenge also presents an opportunity - the potential to detect the surface of an extrasolar world. This study explores the feasibility of characterizing the atmosphere and surface of a terrestrial exoplanet with JWST, taking LHS 3844b as a test case because it is the highest signal-to-noise rocky thermal emission target among planets that are cool enough to have non-molten surfaces. We model the planetary emission, including the spectral signal of both atmosphere and surface, and we explore all scenarios that are consistent with the existing Spitzer 4.5 $μ$m measurement of LHS 3844b from Kreidberg et al. (2019). In summary, we find a range of plausible surfaces and atmospheres that are within 3 $σ$ of the observation - less reflective metal-rich, iron oxidized and basaltic compositions are allowed, and atmospheres are restricted to a maximum thickness of 1 bar, if near-infrared absorbers at $\gtrsim$ 100 ppm are included. We further make predictions on the observability of surfaces and atmospheres, perform a Bayesian retrieval analysis on simulated JWST data and find that a small number, ~3, of eclipse observations should suffice to differentiate between surface and atmospheric features. However, the surface signal may make it harder to place precise constraints on the abundance of atmospheric species and may even falsely induce a weak H$_2$O detection.

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arXiv2022

Photochemical Runaway in Exoplanet Atmospheres: Implications for Biosignatures

About 2.5 billion years ago, microbes learned to harness plentiful solar energy to reduce CO$_2$ with H$_2$O, extracting energy and producing O$_2$ as waste. O$_2$ production from this metabolic process was so vigorous that it saturated its photochemical sinks, permitting it to reach "runaway" conditions and rapidly accumulate in the atmosphere despite its reactivity. Here we argue that O$_2$ may not be unique: diverse gases produced by life may experience a "runaway" effect similar to O$_2$. This runaway occurs because the ability of an atmosphere to photochemically cleanse itself of trace gases is generally finite. If produced at rates exceeding this finite limit, even reactive gases can rapidly accumulate to high concentrations and become potentially detectable. Planets orbiting smaller, cooler stars, such as the M dwarfs that are the prime targets for the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), are especially favorable for runaway due to their lower UV emission compared to higher-mass stars. As an illustrative case study, we show that on a habitable exoplanet with an H$_2$-N$_2$ atmosphere and net surface production of NH$_3$ orbiting an M dwarf (the "Cold Haber World" scenario), the reactive biogenic gas NH$_3$ can enter runaway, whereupon an increase in the surface production flux of one order of magnitude can increase NH$_3$ concentrations by three orders of magnitude and render it detectable by JWST in just two transits. Our work on this and other gases suggests that diverse signs of life on exoplanets may be readily detectable at biochemically plausible production rates.

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arXiv2022

A Scaling for Atmospheric Heat Redistribution on Tidally-Locked Rocky Planets

Atmospheric heat redistribution shapes the remote appearance of rocky exoplanets but there is currently no easy way to predict a planet's heat redistribution from its physical properties. This paper proposes an analytical scaling theory for the heat redistribution on tidally-locked rocky exoplanets. The main parameters of the scaling are a planet's equilibrium temperature, surface pressure, and broadband longwave optical thickness. The scaling compares favorably against idealized general circulation model simulations of TRAPPIST-1b, GJ1132b, and LHS 3844b. For these planets heat redistribution generally becomes efficient, and a planet's observable thermal phase curve and secondary eclipse start to deviate significantly from that of a bare rock, once surface pressure exceeds O(1) bar. The scaling additionally points to planetary scenarios for which heat transport can be notably more or less efficient, such as H2 and CO atmospheres or hot lava ocean worlds. The results thus bridge the gap between theory and imminent observations with the James Webb Space Telescope. They can also be used to parameterize the effect of 3D atmospheric dynamics in 1D models, thereby improving the self-consistency of such models.

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arXiv2021

TESS observations of the WASP-121 b phase curve

We study the red-optical photometry of the ultra-hot Jupiter WASP-121 b as observed by the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) and model its atmosphere through a radiative transfer simulation. Given its short orbital period of $\sim1.275$ days, inflated state and bright host star, WASP-121 b is exceptionally favorable for detailed atmospheric characterization. Towards this purpose, we use \texttt{allesfitter} to characterize its full red-optical phase curve, including the planetary phase modulation and the secondary eclipse. We measure the day and nightside brightness temperatures in the TESS passband as $3012\substack{+40 \\ -42}$ K and $2022\substack{+254 \\ -602}$ K, respectively, and do not find a statistically significant phase shift between the brightest and substellar points. This is consistent with an inefficient heat recirculation on the planet. We then perform an atmospheric retrieval analysis to infer the dayside atmospheric properties of WASP-121 b such as its bulk composition, albedo and heat recirculation. We confirm the temperature inversion in the atmosphere and suggest H$^-$, TiO and VO as potential causes of the inversion, absorbing heat at optical wavelengths at low pressures. Future HST and JWST observations of WASP-121 b will benefit from its first full phase curve measured by TESS.

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arXiv2019

Simulations of Water Vapor and Clouds on Rapidly Rotating and Tidally Locked Planets: a 3D Model Intercomparison

Robustly modeling the inner edge of the habitable zone is essential for determining the most promising potentially habitable exoplanets for atmospheric characterization. Global climate models (GCMs) have become the standard tool for calculating this boundary, but divergent results have emerged among the various GCMs. In this study, we perform an inter-comparison of standard GCMs used in the field on a rapidly rotating planet receiving a G-star spectral energy distribution and on a tidally locked planet receiving an M-star spectral energy distribution. Experiments both with and without clouds are examined. We find relatively small difference (within 8 K) in global-mean surface temperature simulation among the models in the G-star case with clouds. In contrast, the global-mean surface temperature simulation in the M-star case is highly divergent (20-30 K). Moreover, even differences in the simulated surface temperature when clouds are turned off are significant. These differences are caused by differences in cloud simulation and/or radiative transfer, as well as complex interactions between atmospheric dynamics and these two processes. For example we find that an increase in atmospheric absorption of shortwave radiation can lead to higher relative humidity at high altitudes globally and, therefore, a significant decrease in planetary radiation emitted to space. This study emphasizes the importance of basing conclusions about planetary climate on simulations from a variety of GCMs and motivates the eventual comparison of GCM results with terrestrial exoplanet observations to improve their performance.

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