arXiv subjects

Daniel E. Ho

Publications and source records attributed to Daniel E. Ho.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2024

Locating and measuring marine aquaculture production from space: a computer vision approach in the French Mediterranean

Aquaculture production -- the cultivation of aquatic plants and animals -- has grown rapidly since the 1990s, but sparse, self-reported and aggregate production data limits the effective understanding and monitoring of the industry's trends and potential risks. Building on a manual survey of aquaculture production from remote sensing imagery, we train a computer vision model to identify marine aquaculture cages from aerial and satellite imagery, and generate a spatially explicit dataset of finfish production locations in the French Mediterranean from 2000-2021 that includes 4,010 cages (69m2 average cage area). We demonstrate the value of our method as an easily adaptable, cost-effective approach that can improve the speed and reliability of aquaculture surveys, and enables downstream analyses relevant to researchers and regulators. We illustrate its use to compute independent estimates of production, and develop a flexible framework to quantify uncertainty in these estimates. Overall, our study presents an efficient, scalable and highly adaptable method for monitoring aquaculture production from remote sensing imagery.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2024

Statistical Uncertainty in Word Embeddings: GloVe-V

Static word embeddings are ubiquitous in computational social science applications and contribute to practical decision-making in a variety of fields including law and healthcare. However, assessing the statistical uncertainty in downstream conclusions drawn from word embedding statistics has remained challenging. When using only point estimates for embeddings, researchers have no streamlined way of assessing the degree to which their model selection criteria or scientific conclusions are subject to noise due to sparsity in the underlying data used to generate the embeddings. We introduce a method to obtain approximate, easy-to-use, and scalable reconstruction error variance estimates for GloVe (Pennington et al., 2014), one of the most widely used word embedding models, using an analytical approximation to a multivariate normal model. To demonstrate the value of embeddings with variance (GloVe-V), we illustrate how our approach enables principled hypothesis testing in core word embedding tasks, such as comparing the similarity between different word pairs in vector space, assessing the performance of different models, and analyzing the relative degree of ethnic or gender bias in a corpus using different word lists.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

Hallucination-Free? Assessing the Reliability of Leading AI Legal Research Tools

Legal practice has witnessed a sharp rise in products incorporating artificial intelligence (AI). Such tools are designed to assist with a wide range of core legal tasks, from search and summarization of caselaw to document drafting. But the large language models used in these tools are prone to "hallucinate," or make up false information, making their use risky in high-stakes domains. Recently, certain legal research providers have touted methods such as retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) as "eliminating" (Casetext, 2023) or "avoid[ing]" hallucinations (Thomson Reuters, 2023), or guaranteeing "hallucination-free" legal citations (LexisNexis, 2023). Because of the closed nature of these systems, systematically assessing these claims is challenging. In this article, we design and report on the first preregistered empirical evaluation of AI-driven legal research tools. We demonstrate that the providers' claims are overstated. While hallucinations are reduced relative to general-purpose chatbots (GPT-4), we find that the AI research tools made by LexisNexis (Lexis+ AI) and Thomson Reuters (Westlaw AI-Assisted Research and Ask Practical Law AI) each hallucinate between 17% and 33% of the time. We also document substantial differences between systems in responsiveness and accuracy. Our article makes four key contributions. It is the first to assess and report the performance of RAG-based proprietary legal AI tools. Second, it introduces a comprehensive, preregistered dataset for identifying and understanding vulnerabilities in these systems. Third, it proposes a clear typology for differentiating between hallucinations and accurate legal responses. Last, it provides evidence to inform the responsibilities of legal professionals in supervising and verifying AI outputs, which remains a central open question for the responsible integration of AI into law.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

MultiLegalPile: A 689GB Multilingual Legal Corpus

Large, high-quality datasets are crucial for training Large Language Models (LLMs). However, so far, there are few datasets available for specialized critical domains such as law and the available ones are often only for the English language. We curate and release MultiLegalPile, a 689GB corpus in 24 languages from 17 jurisdictions. The MultiLegalPile corpus, which includes diverse legal data sources with varying licenses, allows for pretraining NLP models under fair use, with more permissive licenses for the Eurlex Resources and Legal mC4 subsets. We pretrain two RoBERTa models and one Longformer multilingually, and 24 monolingual models on each of the language-specific subsets and evaluate them on LEXTREME. Additionally, we evaluate the English and multilingual models on LexGLUE. Our multilingual models set a new SotA on LEXTREME and our English models on LexGLUE. We release the dataset, the trained models, and all of the code under the most open possible licenses.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

Estimating Racial Disparities When Race is Not Observed

The estimation of racial disparities in various fields is often hampered by the lack of individual-level racial information. In many cases, the law prohibits the collection of such information to prevent direct racial discrimination. As a result, analysts have frequently adopted Bayesian Improved Surname Geocoding (BISG) and its variants, which combine individual names and addresses with Census data to predict race. Unfortunately, the residuals of BISG are often correlated with the outcomes of interest, generally attenuating estimates of racial disparities. To correct this bias, we propose an alternative identification strategy under the assumption that surname is conditionally independent of the outcome given (unobserved) race, residence location, and other observed characteristics. We introduce a new class of models, Bayesian Instrumental Regression for Disparity Estimation (BIRDiE), that take BISG probabilities as inputs and produce racial disparity estimates by using surnames as an instrumental variable for race. Our estimation method is scalable, making it possible to analyze large-scale administrative data. We also show how to address potential violations of the key identification assumptions. A validation study based on the North Carolina voter file shows that BISG+BIRDiE reduces error by up to 84% when estimating racial differences in party registration. Finally, we apply the proposed methodology to estimate racial differences in who benefits from the home mortgage interest deduction using individual-level tax data from the U.S. Internal Revenue Service. Open-source software is available which implements the proposed methodology.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2024

Quantifying the Uncertainty of Imputed Demographic Disparity Estimates: The Dual-Bootstrap

Measuring average differences in an outcome across racial or ethnic groups is a crucial first step for equity assessments, but researchers often lack access to data on individuals' races and ethnicities to calculate them. A common solution is to impute the missing race or ethnicity labels using proxies, then use those imputations to estimate the disparity. Conventional standard errors mischaracterize the resulting estimate's uncertainty because they treat the imputation model as given and fixed, instead of as an unknown object that must be estimated with uncertainty. We propose a dual-bootstrap approach that explicitly accounts for measurement uncertainty and thus enables more accurate statistical inference, which we demonstrate via simulation. In addition, we adapt our approach to the commonly used Bayesian Improved Surname Geocoding (BISG) imputation algorithm, where direct bootstrapping is infeasible because the underlying Census Bureau data are unavailable. In simulations, we find that measurement uncertainty is generally insignificant for BISG except in particular circumstances; bias, not variance, is likely the predominant source of error. We apply our method to quantify the uncertainty of prevalence estimates of common health conditions by race using data from the American Family Cohort.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2024

On the Societal Impact of Open Foundation Models

Foundation models are powerful technologies: how they are released publicly directly shapes their societal impact. In this position paper, we focus on open foundation models, defined here as those with broadly available model weights (e.g. Llama 2, Stable Diffusion XL). We identify five distinctive properties (e.g. greater customizability, poor monitoring) of open foundation models that lead to both their benefits and risks. Open foundation models present significant benefits, with some caveats, that span innovation, competition, the distribution of decision-making power, and transparency. To understand their risks of misuse, we design a risk assessment framework for analyzing their marginal risk. Across several misuse vectors (e.g. cyberattacks, bioweapons), we find that current research is insufficient to effectively characterize the marginal risk of open foundation models relative to pre-existing technologies. The framework helps explain why the marginal risk is low in some cases, clarifies disagreements about misuse risks by revealing that past work has focused on different subsets of the framework with different assumptions, and articulates a way forward for more constructive debate. Overall, our work helps support a more grounded assessment of the societal impact of open foundation models by outlining what research is needed to empirically validate their theoretical benefits and risks.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2024

How well do LLMs cite relevant medical references? An evaluation framework and analyses

Large language models (LLMs) are currently being used to answer medical questions across a variety of clinical domains. Recent top-performing commercial LLMs, in particular, are also capable of citing sources to support their responses. In this paper, we ask: do the sources that LLMs generate actually support the claims that they make? To answer this, we propose three contributions. First, as expert medical annotations are an expensive and time-consuming bottleneck for scalable evaluation, we demonstrate that GPT-4 is highly accurate in validating source relevance, agreeing 88% of the time with a panel of medical doctors. Second, we develop an end-to-end, automated pipeline called \textit{SourceCheckup} and use it to evaluate five top-performing LLMs on a dataset of 1200 generated questions, totaling over 40K pairs of statements and sources. Interestingly, we find that between ~50% to 90% of LLM responses are not fully supported by the sources they provide. We also evaluate GPT-4 with retrieval augmented generation (RAG) and find that, even still, around 30\% of individual statements are unsupported, while nearly half of its responses are not fully supported. Third, we open-source our curated dataset of medical questions and expert annotations for future evaluations. Given the rapid pace of LLM development and the potential harms of incorrect or outdated medical information, it is crucial to also understand and quantify their capability to produce relevant, trustworthy medical references.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2023

Estimating and Implementing Conventional Fairness Metrics With Probabilistic Protected Features

The vast majority of techniques to train fair models require access to the protected attribute (e.g., race, gender), either at train time or in production. However, in many important applications this protected attribute is largely unavailable. In this paper, we develop methods for measuring and reducing fairness violations in a setting with limited access to protected attribute labels. Specifically, we assume access to protected attribute labels on a small subset of the dataset of interest, but only probabilistic estimates of protected attribute labels (e.g., via Bayesian Improved Surname Geocoding) for the rest of the dataset. With this setting in mind, we propose a method to estimate bounds on common fairness metrics for an existing model, as well as a method for training a model to limit fairness violations by solving a constrained non-convex optimization problem. Unlike similar existing approaches, our methods take advantage of contextual information -- specifically, the relationships between a model's predictions and the probabilistic prediction of protected attributes, given the true protected attribute, and vice versa -- to provide tighter bounds on the true disparity. We provide an empirical illustration of our methods using voting data. First, we show our measurement method can bound the true disparity up to 5.5x tighter than previous methods in these applications. Then, we demonstrate that our training technique effectively reduces disparity while incurring lesser fairness-accuracy trade-offs than other fair optimization methods with limited access to protected attributes.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Toward Operationalizing Pipeline-aware ML Fairness: A Research Agenda for Developing Practical Guidelines and Tools

While algorithmic fairness is a thriving area of research, in practice, mitigating issues of bias often gets reduced to enforcing an arbitrarily chosen fairness metric, either by enforcing fairness constraints during the optimization step, post-processing model outputs, or by manipulating the training data. Recent work has called on the ML community to take a more holistic approach to tackle fairness issues by systematically investigating the many design choices made through the ML pipeline, and identifying interventions that target the issue's root cause, as opposed to its symptoms. While we share the conviction that this pipeline-based approach is the most appropriate for combating algorithmic unfairness on the ground, we believe there are currently very few methods of \emph{operationalizing} this approach in practice. Drawing on our experience as educators and practitioners, we first demonstrate that without clear guidelines and toolkits, even individuals with specialized ML knowledge find it challenging to hypothesize how various design choices influence model behavior. We then consult the fair-ML literature to understand the progress to date toward operationalizing the pipeline-aware approach: we systematically collect and organize the prior work that attempts to detect, measure, and mitigate various sources of unfairness through the ML pipeline. We utilize this extensive categorization of previous contributions to sketch a research agenda for the community. We hope this work serves as the stepping stone toward a more comprehensive set of resources for ML researchers, practitioners, and students interested in exploring, designing, and testing pipeline-oriented approaches to algorithmic fairness.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

LegalBench: A Collaboratively Built Benchmark for Measuring Legal Reasoning in Large Language Models

The advent of large language models (LLMs) and their adoption by the legal community has given rise to the question: what types of legal reasoning can LLMs perform? To enable greater study of this question, we present LegalBench: a collaboratively constructed legal reasoning benchmark consisting of 162 tasks covering six different types of legal reasoning. LegalBench was built through an interdisciplinary process, in which we collected tasks designed and hand-crafted by legal professionals. Because these subject matter experts took a leading role in construction, tasks either measure legal reasoning capabilities that are practically useful, or measure reasoning skills that lawyers find interesting. To enable cross-disciplinary conversations about LLMs in the law, we additionally show how popular legal frameworks for describing legal reasoning -- which distinguish between its many forms -- correspond to LegalBench tasks, thus giving lawyers and LLM developers a common vocabulary. This paper describes LegalBench, presents an empirical evaluation of 20 open-source and commercial LLMs, and illustrates the types of research explorations LegalBench enables.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2023

Potential for allocative harm in an environmental justice data tool

Neighborhood-level screening algorithms are increasingly being deployed to inform policy decisions. We evaluate one such algorithm, CalEnviroScreen - designed to promote environmental justice and used to guide hundreds of millions of dollars in public funding annually - assessing its potential for allocative harm. We observe the model to be sensitive to subjective model decisions, with 16% of tracts potentially changing designation, as well as financially consequential, estimating the effect of its positive designations as a 104% (62-145%) increase in funding, equivalent to \$2.08 billion (\$1.56-2.41 billion) over four years. We also observe allocative tradeoffs and susceptibility to manipulation, raising ethical concerns. We recommend incorporating sensitivity analyses to mitigate allocative harm and accountability mechanisms to prevent misuse.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2023

Integrating Reward Maximization and Population Estimation: Sequential Decision-Making for Internal Revenue Service Audit Selection

We introduce a new setting, optimize-and-estimate structured bandits. Here, a policy must select a batch of arms, each characterized by its own context, that would allow it to both maximize reward and maintain an accurate (ideally unbiased) population estimate of the reward. This setting is inherent to many public and private sector applications and often requires handling delayed feedback, small data, and distribution shifts. We demonstrate its importance on real data from the United States Internal Revenue Service (IRS). The IRS performs yearly audits of the tax base. Two of its most important objectives are to identify suspected misreporting and to estimate the "tax gap" -- the global difference between the amount paid and true amount owed. Based on a unique collaboration with the IRS, we cast these two processes as a unified optimize-and-estimate structured bandit. We analyze optimize-and-estimate approaches to the IRS problem and propose a novel mechanism for unbiased population estimation that achieves rewards comparable to baseline approaches. This approach has the potential to improve audit efficacy, while maintaining policy-relevant estimates of the tax gap. This has important social consequences given that the current tax gap is estimated at nearly half a trillion dollars. We suggest that this problem setting is fertile ground for further research and we highlight its interesting challenges. The results of this and related research are currently being incorporated into the continual improvement of the IRS audit selection methods.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Pile of Law: Learning Responsible Data Filtering from the Law and a 256GB Open-Source Legal Dataset

One concern with the rise of large language models lies with their potential for significant harm, particularly from pretraining on biased, obscene, copyrighted, and private information. Emerging ethical approaches have attempted to filter pretraining material, but such approaches have been ad hoc and failed to take context into account. We offer an approach to filtering grounded in law, which has directly addressed the tradeoffs in filtering material. First, we gather and make available the Pile of Law, a 256GB (and growing) dataset of open-source English-language legal and administrative data, covering court opinions, contracts, administrative rules, and legislative records. Pretraining on the Pile of Law may help with legal tasks that have the promise to improve access to justice. Second, we distill the legal norms that governments have developed to constrain the inclusion of toxic or private content into actionable lessons for researchers and discuss how our dataset reflects these norms. Third, we show how the Pile of Law offers researchers the opportunity to learn such filtering rules directly from the data, providing an exciting new research direction in model-based processing.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2022

Beyond Ads: Sequential Decision-Making Algorithms in Law and Public Policy

We explore the promises and challenges of employing sequential decision-making algorithms -- such as bandits, reinforcement learning, and active learning -- in law and public policy. While such algorithms have well-characterized performance in the private sector (e.g., online advertising), the tendency to naively apply algorithms motivated by one domain, often online advertisements, can be called the "advertisement fallacy." Our main thesis is that law and public policy pose distinct methodological challenges that the machine learning community has not yet addressed. Machine learning will need to address these methodological problems to move "beyond ads." Public law, for instance, can pose multiple objectives, necessitate batched and delayed feedback, and require systems to learn rational, causal decision-making policies, each of which presents novel questions at the research frontier. We discuss a wide range of potential applications of sequential decision-making algorithms in regulation and governance, including public health, environmental protection, tax administration, occupational safety, and benefits adjudication. We use these examples to highlight research needed to render sequential decision making policy-compliant, adaptable, and effective in the public sector. We also note the potential risks of such deployments and describe how sequential decision systems can also facilitate the discovery of harms. We hope our work inspires more investigation of sequential decision making in law and public policy, which provide unique challenges for machine learning researchers with potential for significant social benefit.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2022

LegalBench: Prototyping a Collaborative Benchmark for Legal Reasoning

Can foundation models be guided to execute tasks involving legal reasoning? We believe that building a benchmark to answer this question will require sustained collaborative efforts between the computer science and legal communities. To that end, this short paper serves three purposes. First, we describe how IRAC-a framework legal scholars use to distinguish different types of legal reasoning-can guide the construction of a Foundation Model oriented benchmark. Second, we present a seed set of 44 tasks built according to this framework. We discuss initial findings, and highlight directions for new tasks. Finally-inspired by the Open Science movement-we make a call for the legal and computer science communities to join our efforts by contributing new tasks. This work is ongoing, and our progress can be tracked here: https://github.com/HazyResearch/legalbench.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2022

Entropy Regularization for Population Estimation

Entropy regularization is known to improve exploration in sequential decision-making problems. We show that this same mechanism can also lead to nearly unbiased and lower-variance estimates of the mean reward in the optimize-and-estimate structured bandit setting. Mean reward estimation (i.e., population estimation) tasks have recently been shown to be essential for public policy settings where legal constraints often require precise estimates of population metrics. We show that leveraging entropy and KL divergence can yield a better trade-off between reward and estimator variance than existing baselines, all while remaining nearly unbiased. These properties of entropy regularization illustrate an exciting potential for bridging the optimal exploration and estimation literatures.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Detecting Environmental Violations with Satellite Imagery in Near Real Time: Land Application under the Clean Water Act

This paper introduces a new, highly consequential setting for the use of computer vision for environmental sustainability. Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations (CAFOs) (aka intensive livestock farms or "factory farms") produce significant manure and pollution. Dumping manure in the winter months poses significant environmental risks and violates environmental law in many states. Yet the federal Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and state agencies have relied primarily on self-reporting to monitor such instances of "land application." Our paper makes four contributions. First, we introduce the environmental, policy, and agricultural setting of CAFOs and land application. Second, we provide a new dataset of high-cadence (daily to weekly) 3m/pixel satellite imagery from 2018-20 for 330 CAFOs in Wisconsin with hand labeled instances of land application (n=57,697). Third, we develop an object detection model to predict land application and a system to perform inference in near real-time. We show that this system effectively appears to detect land application (PR AUC = 0.93) and we uncover several outlier facilities which appear to apply regularly and excessively. Last, we estimate the population prevalence of land application events in Winter 2021/22. We show that the prevalence of land application is much higher than what is self-reported by facilities. The system can be used by environmental regulators and interest groups, one of which piloted field visits based on this system this past winter. Overall, our application demonstrates the potential for AI-based computer vision systems to solve major problems in environmental compliance with near-daily imagery.

cs.CV↗