arXiv subjects

Daniel Fabrycky

Publications and source records attributed to Daniel Fabrycky.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Accounting for Transit Timing Detectability: Biases in Planetary Radius and Orbital Period

Transit Timing Variations (TTVs) are deviations from the time an observer would expect to see an exoplanet transit its host star. In multi-planetary systems, significant TTVs may indicate the presence of another body in the system gravitationally interacting with the transiting exoplanet. T. Holczer et al. (2016) catalogs 2599 Kepler Objects of Interest (KOIs) and provides a statistical analysis of their TTVs for candidates that have transited at least seven times. However, this conservative limit on the number of transits neglects long-period KOIs. Therefore, we extend the statistical analysis performed by T. Holczer et al. (2016) to the population of KOIs that have between three and six transits. We identify six KOIs, three of which have Kepler names (Kepler-103 c, Kepler-90 g, and Kepler-1662 c), with significant TTV signals that were originally overlooked by T. Holczer et al. (2016). Additionally, we search for trends regarding the planetary radius and orbital period of KOIs with significant TTVs. Through a survival analysis, we determine that planets with shorter orbital periods require larger TTV signals to be detected compared to longer period planets, regardless of planetary size. Uncovering trends in TTV statistics such as this one will provide targets for future forward modeling of planetary architectures.

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arXiv2024

Validating the Orbital Periods of the Coolest TESS Exoplanet Candidates

When an exoplanet passes in front of its host star, the resulting eclipse causes an observable decrease in stellar flux, and when multiple such transits are detected, the orbital period of the exoplanet can be determined. Over the past six years, NASA's Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) has discovered thousands of potential planets by this method, mostly with short orbital periods, although some have longer reported values over one hundred days. These long orbital periods, however, are note easy to confirm due to frequent lengthy data gaps. Here we show that while the majority of these long period candidates likely have periods much shorter than reported, there are a sizable number of TESS candidates with true long periods. These candidates generally only have two reported transits, but the periods of duo-transits like this, and even candidates with three or more transits, can be confirmed if the data rules out all possible shorter period aliases. Using TESS data, we confirm long orbital periods for nine candidate planets, and present five others that are likely long period. Due to their long periods, these planets will have relatively cool equilibrium temperatures, and may be more likely to host exomoons or rings. We present these TOIs, along with a variety of small corrections to other TESS orbital periods and three planet candidates with possible transit timing variations, with the goal of refining the TESS data set and enabling future research with respect to cool transiting planets.

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arXiv2023

Tidal Dissipation in Satellites Prevents Hill Sphere Escape

The transit method is a promising means to detect exomoons, but few candidates have been identified. For planets close to their stars, the dynamical interaction between a satellite's orbit and the star must be important in their evolution. Satellites beyond synchronous orbit spiral out due to the tide raised on their planet, and it has been assumed that they would likely escape the Hill sphere. Here we follow the evolution with a three-body code that accounts for tidal dissipation within both the planet and the satellite. We show that tidal dissipation in satellites often keeps them bound to their planet, making exomoons more observable than previously thought. The probability of escape depends on the ratio of tidal quality factors of the planet and satellite; when this ratio exceeds 0.5, escape is usually avoided. Instead, the satellite moves to an equilibrium in which the spin angular momentum of the planet is not transferred into the orbit of the satellite, but is transferred into the orbit of the planet itself. While the planet continues spinning faster than the satellite orbits, the satellite maintains a semi-major axis of approximately 0.41 Hill radii. These states are accompanied with modest satellite eccentricity near 0.1 and are found to be stable over long timescales.

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arXiv2023

Investigating the Atmospheric Mass Loss of the Kepler-105 Planets Straddling the Radius Gap

An intriguing pattern among exoplanets is the lack of detected planets between approximately $1.5$ R$_\oplus$ and $2.0$ R$_\oplus$. One proposed explanation for this "radius gap" is the photoevaporation of planetary atmospheres, a theory that can be tested by studying individual planetary systems. Kepler-105 is an ideal system for such testing due to the ordering and sizes of its planets. Kepler-105 is a sun-like star that hosts two planets straddling the radius gap in a rare architecture with the larger planet closer to the host star ($R_b = 2.53\pm0.07$ R$_\oplus$, $P_b = 5.41$ days, $R_c = 1.44\pm0.04$ R$_\oplus$, $P_c = 7.13$ days). If photoevaporation sculpted the atmospheres of these planets, then Kepler-105b would need to be much more massive than Kepler-105c to retain its atmosphere, given its closer proximity to the host star. To test this hypothesis, we simultaneously analyzed radial velocities (RVs) and transit timing variations (TTVs) of the Kepler-105 system, measuring disparate masses of $M_b = 10.8\pm2.3$ M$_\oplus$ ($ \rho_b = 0.97\pm0.22$ g cm$^{-3}$) and $M_c = 5.6\pm1.2$ M$_\oplus $ ($\rho_c = 2.64\pm0.61$ g cm$^{-3}$). Based on these masses, the difference in gas envelope content of the Kepler-105 planets could be entirely due to photoevaporation (in 76\% of scenarios), although other mechanisms like core-powered mass loss could have played a role for some planet albedos.

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arXiv2023

A $5M_\text{Jup}$ Non-Transiting Coplanar Circumbinary Planet Around Kepler-1660AB

Over a dozen transiting circumbinary planets have been discovered around eclipsing binaries. Transit detections are biased towards aligned planet and binary orbits, and indeed all of the known planets have mutual inclinations less than $4.5^{\circ}$. One path to discovering circumbinary planets with misaligned orbits is through eclipse timing variations (ETVs) of non-transiting planets. Borkovits et al. (2016) discovered ETVs on the 18.6 d binary Kepler-1660AB, indicative of a third body on a $\approx 236$ d period, with a misaligned orbit and a potentially planetary mass. Getley et al. (2017) agreed with the planetary hypothesis, arguing for a $7.7M_{\rm Jup}$ circumbinary planet on an orbit that is highly misaligned by $120^{\circ}$ with respect to the binary. In this paper, we obtain the first radial velocities of the binary. We combine these with an analysis of not only the ETVs but also the eclipse depth variations. We confirm the existence of a $239.5$ d circumbinary planet, but with a lower mass of $4.87M_{\rm Jup}$ and a coplanar orbit. The misaligned orbits proposed by previous authors are definitively ruled out by a lack of eclipse depth variations. Kepler-1660ABb is the first confirmed circumbinary planet found using ETVs around a main sequence binary.

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arXiv2023

The Kepler Giant Planet Search. I: A Decade of Kepler Planet-host Radial Velocities from W. M. Keck Observatory

Despite the importance of Jupiter and Saturn to Earth's formation and habitability, there has not yet been a comprehensive observational study of how giant exoplanets correlate with the architectural properties of close-in, sub-Neptune-sized exoplanets. This is largely because transit surveys are particularly insensitive to planets at orbital separations >1 au, and so their census of Jupiter-like planets is incomplete, inhibiting our study of the relationship between Jupiter-like planets and the small planets that do transit. To investigate the relationship between close-in, small and distant, giant planets, we conducted the Kepler Giant Planet Survey (KGPS). Using the W. M. Keck Observatory High Resolution Echelle Spectrometer, we spent over a decade collecting 2844 radial velocities (RVs; 2167 of which are presented here for the first time) of 63 Sunlike stars that host 157 transiting planets. We had no prior knowledge of which systems would contain giant planets beyond 1 au, making this survey unbiased with respect to previously detected Jovians. We announce RV-detected companions to 20 stars from our sample. These include 13 Jovians (0.3 MJ < M sin i < 13 MJ, 1 au < a < 10 au), eight nontransiting sub-Saturns, and three stellar-mass companions. We also present updated masses and densities of 84 transiting planets. The KGPS project leverages one of the longest-running and most data-rich collections of RVs of the NASA Kepler systems yet, and it will provide a basis for addressing whether giant planets help or hinder the growth of sub-Neptune-sized and terrestrial planets. Future KGPS papers will examine the relationship between small, transiting planets and their long-period companions.

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arXiv2023

Inner Habitable Zone Boundary for Eccentric Exoplanets

The climate of a planet can be strongly affected by its eccentricity due to variations in the stellar flux. There are two limits for the dependence of the inner habitable zone boundary (IHZ) on eccentricity: (1) the mean-stellar flux approximation ($S_{\mbox{IHZ}} \propto \sqrt{1-e^2}$), in which the temperature is approximately constant throughout the orbit, and (2) the maximum-stellar flux approximation ($S_{\mbox{IHZ}} \propto (1-e)^2$), in which the temperature adjusts instantaneously to the stellar flux. Which limit is appropriate is determined by the dimensionless parameter $Π= \frac{C}{BP}$, where $C$ is the heat capacity of the planet, $P$ is the orbital period, and $B=\frac{\partial Ω}{\partial T_s}$, where $Ω$ is the outgoing longwave radiation and $T_s$ is the surface temperature. We use the Buckingham $Π$ theorem to derive an analytical function for the IHZ in terms of eccentricity and $Π$. We then build a time-dependent energy balance model to resolve the surface temperature evolution and constrain our analytical result. We find that $Π$ must be greater than about $\sim 1$ for the mean-stellar flux approximation to be nearly exact and less than about $\sim 0.01$ for the maximum-stellar flux approximation to be nearly exact. In addition to assuming a constant heat capacity, we also consider the effective heat capacity including latent heat (evaporation and precipitation). We find that for planets with an Earth-like ocean, the IHZ should follow the mean-stellar flux limit for all eccentricities. This work will aid in the prioritization of potentially habitable exoplanets with non-zero eccentricity for follow-up characterization.

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arXiv2021

Exciting mutual inclination in planetary systems with a distant stellar companion: the case of Kepler-108

We study the excitation of mutual inclination between planetary orbits by a novel secular-orbital resonance in multiplanet systems perturbed by binary companions which we call "ivection". The ivection resonance happens when the nodal precession rate of the planet matches a multiple of the orbital frequency of the binary, and its physical nature is similar to the previously-studied evection resonance. Capture into an ivection resonance requires encountering the resonance with slowly increasing nodal precession rate, and it can excite the mutual inclination of the planets without affecting their eccentricities. We discuss the possible outcomes of ivection resonance capture, and we use simulations to illustrate that it is a promising mechanism for producing the mutual inclination in systems where planets have significant mutual inclination but modest eccentricity, such as Kepler-108. We also find an apparent deficit of multiplanet systems which would have nodal precession period comparable to binary orbital period, suggesting that ivection resonance may inhibit the formation or destablize multiplanet systems with external binary companion.

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arXiv2021

Period Ratio Sculpting Near Second-Order Mean-Motion Resonances

Second-order mean-motion resonances lead to an interesting phenomenon in the sculpting of the period ratio distribution due to their shape and width in period-ratio/eccentricity space. As the osculating periods librate in resonance, the time-averaged period ratio approaches the exact commensurability. The width of second-order resonances increases with increasing eccentricity, and thus more eccentric systems have a stronger peak at commensurability when averaged over sufficient time. The libration period is short enough that this time-averaging behavior is expected to appear on the timescale of the Kepler mission. Using N-body integrations of simulated planet pairs near the 5:3 and 3:1 mean-motion resonances, we investigate the eccentricity distribution consistent with the planet pairs observed by Kepler. This analysis, an approach independent from previous studies, shows no statistically significant peak at the 3:1 resonance and a small peak at the 5:3 resonance, placing an upper limit on the Rayleigh scale parameter, $σ$, of the eccentricity of the observed Kepler planets at $σ=0.245$ (3:1) and $σ=0.095$ (5:3) at 95% confidence, consistent with previous results from other methods.

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arXiv2021

TIC 172900988: A Transiting Circumbinary Planet Detected in One Sector of TESS Data

We report the first discovery of a transiting circumbinary planet detected from a single sector of TESS data. During Sector 21, the planet TIC 172900988b transited the primary star and then 5 days later it transited the secondary star. The binary is itself eclipsing, with a period of P = 19.7 days and an eccentricity of e = 0.45. Archival data from ASAS-SN, Evryscope, KELT, and SuperWASP reveal a prominent apsidal motion of the binary orbit, caused by the dynamical interactions between the binary and the planet. A comprehensive photodynamical analysis of the TESS, archival and follow-up data yields stellar masses and radii of M1 = 1.2384 +/- 0.0007 MSun and R1 = 1.3827 +/- 0.0016 RSun for the primary and M2 = 1.2019 +/- 0.0007 MSun and R2 = 1.3124 +/- 0.0012 RSun for the secondary. The radius of the planet is R3 = 11.25 +/- 0.44 REarth (1.004 +/- 0.039 RJup). The planet's mass and orbital properties are not uniquely determined - there are six solutions with nearly equal likelihood. Specifically, we find that the planet's mass is in the range of 824 < M3 < 981 MEarth (2.65 < M3 < 3.09 MJup), its orbital period could be 188.8, 190.4, 194.0, 199.0, 200.4, or 204.1 days, and the eccentricity is between 0.02 and 0.09. At a V = 10.141 mag, the system is accessible for high-resolution spectroscopic observations, e.g. Rossiter-McLaughlin effect and transit spectroscopy.

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arXiv2021

Evidence for a Non-Dichotomous Solution to the Kepler Dichotomy: Mutual Inclinations of Kepler Planetary Systems from Transit Duration Variations

Early analyses of exoplanet statistics from the Kepler Mission revealed that a model population of multiple-planet systems with low mutual inclinations (${\sim1^{\circ}-2^{\circ}}$) adequately describes the multiple-transiting systems but underpredicts the number of single-transiting systems. This so-called "Kepler dichotomy" signals the existence of a sub-population of multi-planet systems possessing larger mutual inclinations. However, the details of these inclinations remain uncertain. In this work, we derive constraints on the intrinsic mutual inclination distribution by statistically exploiting Transit Duration Variations (TDVs) of the Kepler planet population. When planetary orbits are mutually inclined, planet-planet interactions cause orbital precession, which can lead to detectable long-term changes in transit durations. These TDV signals are inclination-sensitive and have been detected for roughly two dozen Kepler planets. We compare the properties of the Kepler observed TDV detections to TDV detections of simulated planetary systems constructed from two population models with differing assumptions about the mutual inclination distribution. We find strong evidence for a continuous distribution of relatively low mutual inclinations that is well-characterized by a power law relationship between the median mutual inclination ($\tildeμ_{i,n}$) and the intrinsic multiplicity ($n$): $\tildeμ_{i,n} = \tildeμ_{i,5}(n/5)^α$, where $\tildeμ_{i,5} = 1.10^{+0.15}_{-0.11}$ and $α= -1.73^{+0.09}_{-0.08}$. These results suggest that late-stage planet assembly and possibly stellar oblateness are the dominant physical origins for the excitation of Kepler planet mutual inclinations.

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arXiv2021

Systematic search for long-term transit duration changes in Kepler transiting planets

Holczer, Mazeh, and collaborators (HM+16) used the Kepler four-year observations to derive a transit-timing catalog, identifying 260 Kepler objects of interest (KOI) with significant transit timing variations (TTV). For KOIs with high enough SNRs, HM+16 also derived the duration and depth of their transits. In the present work, we use the duration measurements of HM+16 to systematically study the duration changes of 561 KOIs and identify 15 KOIs with a significant long-term linear change of transit durations and another 16 KOIs with an intermediate significance. We show that the observed linear trend is probably caused by a precession of the orbital plane of the transiting planet, induced in most cases by another planet. The leading term of the precession rate depends on the mass and relative inclination of the perturber, and the period ratio between the two orbits, but not on the mass and period of the transiting planet itself. Interestingly, our findings indicate that, as a sample, the detected time derivatives of the durations get larger as a function of the planetary orbital period, probably because short-period planetary systems display small relative inclinations. The results might indicate that short-period planets reside in relatively flattened planetary systems, suggesting these systems experienced stronger dissipation either when formed or when migrated to short orbits. This should be used as a possible clue for the formation of such systems.

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arXiv2021

Resonant Chains of Exoplanets: Libration Centers for Three-body Angles

Resonant planetary systems contain at least one planet pair with orbital periods librating at a near-integer ratio (2/1, 3/2, 4/3, etc.) and are a natural outcome of standard planetary formation theories. Systems with multiple adjacent resonant pairs are known as resonant chains and can exhibit three-body resonances -- characterized by a critical three-body angle. Here we study three-body angles as a diagnostic of resonant chains through tidally-damped N-body integrations. For each combination of the 2:1, 3:2, 4:3, and 5:4 mean motion resonances (the most common resonances in the known resonant chains), we characterize the three-body angle equilibria for several mass schemes, migration timescales, and initial separations. We find that under our formulation of the three-body angle, which does not reduce coefficients, 180 deg is the preferred libration center, and libration centers shifted away from 180 deg are associated with non-adjacent resonances. We then relate these angles to observables, by applying our general results to two transiting systems: Kepler-60 and Kepler-223. For these systems, we compare N-body models of the three-body angle to the zeroth order in e approximation accessible via transit phases, used in previous publications. In both cases, we find the three-body angle during the Kepler observing window is not necessarily indicative of the long-term oscillations and stress the role of dynamical models in investigating three-body angles. We anticipate our results will provide a useful diagnostic in the analysis of resonant chains.

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arXiv2021

Refining the transit timing and photometric analysis of TRAPPIST-1: Masses, radii, densities, dynamics, and ephemerides

We have collected transit times for the TRAPPIST-1 system with the Spitzer Space Telescope over four years. We add to these ground-based, HST and K2 transit time measurements, and revisit an N-body dynamical analysis of the seven-planet system using our complete set of times from which we refine the mass ratios of the planets to the star. We next carry out a photodynamical analysis of the Spitzer light curves to derive the density of the host star and the planet densities. We find that all seven planets' densities may be described with a single rocky mass-radius relation which is depleted in iron relative to Earth, with Fe 21 wt% versus 32 wt% for Earth, and otherwise Earth-like in composition. Alternatively, the planets may have an Earth-like composition, but enhanced in light elements, such as a surface water layer or a core-free structure with oxidized iron in the mantle. We measure planet masses to a precision of 3-5%, equivalent to a radial-velocity (RV) precision of 2.5 cm/sec, or two orders of magnitude more precise than current RV capabilities. We find the eccentricities of the planets are very small; the orbits are extremely coplanar; and the system is stable on 10 Myr timescales. We find evidence of infrequent timing outliers which we cannot explain with an eighth planet; we instead account for the outliers using a robust likelihood function. We forecast JWST timing observations, and speculate on possible implications of the planet densities for the formation, migration and evolution of the planet system.

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arXiv2020

Nodal Precession in Closely Spaced Planet Pairs

Planet-planet perturbations can cause planets' orbital elements to change on secular timescales. Previous work has evaluated the nodal precession rate for planets in the limit of low $α$ (semi-major axis ratio, 0$<$$α$$\leq$1). Our simulations show that systems at high $α$ (or low period ratio), similar to multiplanet systems found in the Kepler survey, have a nodal precession rate that is more strongly dependent on eccentricity and inclination. We present a complete expansion of the nodal precession rate to fourth order in the disturbing function and show that this analytical solution much better describes the simulated N-body behavior of high-$α$ planet pairs; at $α\approx$ 0.5, the fourth-order solution on average reduces the median analytical error by a factor of 7.5 from linear theory and 6.2 from a second-order expansion. We set limits on eccentricity and inclination where the theory is precisely validated by N-body integrations, which can be useful in future secular treatments of planetary systems.

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arXiv2019

The Featureless Transmission Spectra of Two Super-Puff Planets

The Kepler mission revealed a class of planets known as ''super-puffs,'' with masses only a few times larger than Earth's but radii larger than Neptune, giving them very low mean densities. All three of the known planets orbiting the young solar-type star Kepler 51 are super-puffs. The Kepler 51 system thereby provides an opportunity for a comparative study of the structures and atmospheres of this mysterious class of planets, which may provide clues about their formation and evolution. We observed two transits each of Kepler 51b and 51d with the Wide Field Camera 3 (WFC3) on the Hubble Space Telescope. Combining new WFC3 transit times with re-analyzed Kepler data and updated stellar parameters, we confirmed that all three planets have densities lower than 0.1 g/cm$^{3}$. We measured the WFC3 transmission spectra to be featureless between 1.15 and 1.63 $μ$m, ruling out any variations greater than 0.6 scale heights (assuming a H/He dominated atmosphere), thus showing no significant water absorption features. We interpreted the flat spectra as the result of a high-altitude aerosol layer (pressure $<$3 mbar) on each planet. Adding this new result to the collection of flat spectra that have been observed for other sub-Neptune planets, we find support for one of the two hypotheses introduced by Crossfield and Kreidberg (2017), that planets with cooler equilibrium temperatures have more high-altitude aerosols. We strongly disfavor their other hypothesis that the H/He mass fraction drives the appearance of large amplitude transmission features.

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arXiv2019

Stellar Flybys Interrupting Planet-Planet Scattering Generates Oort Planets

Wide-orbit exoplanets are starting to be detected, and planetary formation models are under development to understand their properties. We propose a population of "Oort" planets around other stars, forming by a mechanism analogous to how the Solar System's Oort cloud of comets was populated. Gravitational scattering among planets is inferred from the eccentricity distribution of gas-giant exoplanets measured by the Doppler technique. This scattering is thought to commence while the protoplanetary disk is dissipating, $10^6-10^7$ yr after formation of the star, or perhaps soon thereafter, when the majority of stars are expected to be part of a natal cluster. Previous calculations of planet-planet scattering around isolated stars have one or more planets spending $10^4-10^7$ yr at distances >100 AU before ultimately being ejected. During that time, a close flyby of another star in the cluster may dynamically lift the periastron of the planet, ending further scattering with the inner planets. We present numerical simulations demonstrating this mechanism as well as an analysis of the efficiency. We estimate an occurrence of planets between 100 and 5000 AU by this mechanism to be <1% for gas giants and up to a few percent for Neptunes and super-Earths.

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arXiv2019

The Gemini Planet Imager Exoplanet Survey: Giant Planet and Brown Dwarf Demographics From 10-100 AU

We present a statistical analysis of the first 300 stars observed by the Gemini Planet Imager Exoplanet Survey (GPIES). This subsample includes six detected planets and three brown dwarfs; from these detections and our contrast curves we infer the underlying distributions of substellar companions with respect to their mass, semi-major axis, and host stellar mass. We uncover a strong correlation between planet occurrence rate and host star mass, with stars M $>$ 1.5 $M_\odot$ more likely to host planets with masses between 2-13 M$_{\rm Jup}$ and semi-major axes of 3-100 au at 99.92% confidence. We fit a double power-law model in planet mass (m) and semi-major axis (a) for planet populations around high-mass stars (M $>$ 1.5M$_\odot$) of the form $\frac{d^2 N}{dm da} \propto m^αa^β$, finding $α$ = -2.4 $\pm$ 0.8 and $β$ = -2.0 $\pm$ 0.5, and an integrated occurrence rate of $9^{+5}_{-4}$% between 5-13 M$_{\rm Jup}$ and 10-100 au. A significantly lower occurrence rate is obtained for brown dwarfs around all stars, with 0.8$^{+0.8}_{-0.5}$% of stars hosting a brown dwarf companion between 13-80 M$_{\rm Jup}$ and 10-100 au. Brown dwarfs also appear to be distributed differently in mass and semi-major axis compared to giant planets; whereas giant planets follow a bottom-heavy mass distribution and favor smaller semi-major axes, brown dwarfs exhibit just the opposite behaviors. Comparing to studies of short-period giant planets from the RV method, our results are consistent with a peak in occurrence of giant planets between ~1-10 au. We discuss how these trends, including the preference of giant planets for high-mass host stars, point to formation of giant planets by core/pebble accretion, and formation of brown dwarfs by gravitational instability.

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