arXiv subjects

Daniel J. D'Orazio

Publications and source records attributed to Daniel J. D'Orazio.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Dynamics and detectability of long-lived non-accretion phases for massive black hole binaries in cold, thermally regulating disks

We investigate whether the non-accreting phases found in thin, locally isothermal circumbinary disks survive when the disk thermodynamics are evolved self-consistently. We present grid-based hydrodynamics simulations of circumbinary accretion with an energy equation that includes viscous and hydrodynamic heating coupled to radiative blackbody cooling in the high-Mach number regime. We find that, although gas accumulates and heats at the far edge of the circumbinary cavity, the regions that launch accretion streams remain comparatively cold, leading to potentially long-lived suppression of the binary accretion rate as the large-scale feeding rate is reduced towards the Eddington limit. This runaway non-accretion problem, however, is weakened relative to locally isothermal solutions. Despite their low accretion rates, binaries interacting with disks in a non-accreting phase can remain sufficiently luminous and variable at optical and near-infrared frequencies to be detectable in upcoming wide-field surveys like LSST and the Roman Space Telescope. Because of the effective truncation of the surrounding disk, though, such systems are comparatively faint in high energy, photo-ionizing emission, and may therefore appear as intrinsically X-ray-weak AGN with weak or absent emission line features. We additionally suggest an update to grid-based sink prescriptions for approximating mass loss across an unresolved horizon when including an energy conservation equation.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

Prospects of resolving and localising individual supermassive black hole binaries with pulsar timing arrays: the host ranking challenge

Pulsar Timing Arrays (PTAs) are soon expected to detect individually resolved supermassive black hole (SMBH) binaries, opening the possibility for multi-messenger discoveries. The biggest challenge will be to pinpoint the host galaxy in a large localisation area. We simulate realistic binary populations consistent with the gravitational wave (GW) background, projecting the PTA sensitivity for the next 0-10 years. We inject the loudest binary on top of the background and use one of the standard detection pipelines to constrain its properties. We cross-match the localisation areas with comprehensive all-sky galaxy catalogues and estimate the number of candidate hosts in the localisation area assessing, for the first time, the number of missing galaxies due to incomplete coverage. We develop a ranking system that excludes galaxies with properties inconsistent with the GW posteriors, and prioritizes the remaining galaxies for follow-up observations. We find a $\approx$21, $\approx$38 and $\approx$51 percent probability of resolving a binary in the next 0, 5 and 10 years, respectively, reduced to 0.3, 3.8 and 14.1 percent if we require potentially well-constrained localisation areas. The localisation areas span hundreds of square degrees, but shrink significantly with the addition of more data. They contain on average $\approx$190,000 early type galaxies and $\approx$40,000 active galactic nuclei, with $\approx$25,000 missing candidate hosts. Our ranking method can exclude about half of the potential hosts and efficiently rank those remaining when the galaxy catalogue provides SMBH masses and redshifts, but becomes more inefficient when we rely on apparent magnitudes.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2026

Insights from Analytical Theory of Eccentric Circumbinary Disks II. Forced Modes and Resonance for Precessing Binaries

An eccentric, unequal-mass binary induces forced eccentricity in a circumbinary disk through the non-axisymmetric component of its gravitational potential. Building on the theory of free (i.e., unforced) eccentric modes, we develop a semi-analytical framework to describe this response in two-dimensional, locally isothermal disks with a power-law surface density profile. We show that the disk eccentricity is governed by the competition between pressure and the binary quadrupole potential, leading to two distinct regimes. In quadrupole-dominated disks, the eccentricity oscillates about the forced eccentricity of a test particle, $E\sim r^{-1}$, with an amplitude and wavelength set by the disk aspect ratio. In pressure-dominated disks, the eccentricity departs qualitatively from the test-particle limit and follows a universal radial scaling $E\sim r^{-2}$, consistent with recent numerical results. Resonant amplification occurs when the binary forcing frequency matches the eigenfrequency of a free eccentric disk mode. In the limit of a non-precessing binary, this reduces to the previously identified zero-frequency resonance, for which we derive an analytic criterion and map its dependence on disk and binary parameters. We extend the framework to massive disks by including the disk's gravitational potential and allowing binary apsidal precession. We conjecture that the cavity size, for eccentric, non-equal-mass binaries, can be set such that the ground free eccentric mode of the disk has an eigenfrequency equal to the binary precession frequency. In other words, the disk cavity adjusts until the lowest-order trapped eccentric mode resonates with the forcing from the precessing binary.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2026

Plato's view on supermassive black hole binaries: Exploring the faint limit of ESA's Plato space mission

The search for supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs) has, in recent years, seen the dawn of exploration with several hundred candidates claimed from photometric and spectroscopic surveys monitoring AGNs. While only a handful persist to date, the advent of upcoming high-precision wide-field photometric missions motivates continuing the pursuit of confirming SMBHBs in the optical. We explore the possibility of using the ESA Plato space mission to detect photometric signatures of SMBHBs. Motivated by the Kepler observation of Spikey, the best known self-lensing flare (SLF) candidate to date, this work aims to benchmark the scientific outcome if Plato were to observe Spikey-like objects via its Guest Observer programme. Starting from the Gaia database, we assemble a catalogue of 12,226 bright ($G < 19$) high-probability Quasars for the two pointing fields of Plato's nominal mission. This Plato Quasar catalogue will be pivotal for future follow-up observations of larger photometric searches such as the Vera Rubin LSST survey. We use the Plato camera simulator, PlatoSim, to realistically explore the noise budget in Plato's faint limit, while generating mock light curves to benchmark Plato's ability to recover signatures of SMBHBs. We show that, although not at all designed for the purpose, Plato is capable of detecting Spikey-like SMBHB candidates through their relativistic photometric signatures using Bayesian inference and evidence. Plato will in particular be able to confirm or rule out Spikey and Spikey-like objects with a limiting magnitude of $G\leq18$. With a minimum 2-yr baseline per pointing field, we show that Plato not only could play an essential role in future SMBHB research, but may be an integrated part of the observational fleet of continuous high-precision facilities monitoring SMBHB candidates in the near future.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2026

deci-Hz Gravitational Wave Observations on the Moon and Beyond

This document summarizes talks and discussions from the workshop "deci-Hz Gravitational Wave Observations on the Moon and Beyond" that took place at Johns Hopkins University between September 1 and September 3, 2025. The workshop focused on experimental proposals to observe gravitational waves in the deci-Hz band, including lunar detectors, laser interferometers in space, and atom interferometry; gravitational wave sources in the deci-Hz frequency band; and the multi-messenger and multi-band astronomy that would be enabled by these observations.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2026

Inference on inner galaxy structure via gravitational waves from supermassive binaries

The detection of a stochastic gravitational wave background by pulsar-timing arrays indicates the presence of a population of supermassive black hole binaries. Although the observed spectrum generally matches predictions for orbital evolution driven by gravitational-wave emission in circular orbits, there is a preference for a spectral turnover at the lowest observed frequencies, which may point to substantial hardening during a transition from early environmental influences to later stages dominated by emission. In the vicinity of these binaries, the ejection of stars or dark matter particles through gravitational three-body slingshots efficiently extracts orbital energy, leading to a low-frequency turnover in the spectrum. Here we model how the gravitational-wave spectrum depends on the initial inner galactic profile before scouring by binary ejections while accounting for a range of initial binary eccentricities. By analysing the NANOGrav 15-year data, we find that a parsec-scale galactic-centre density of around $10^6 M_{\odot} \mathrm{pc}^{-3}$ is favoured across most of the parameter space, thus shedding light on the environmental effects that shape black hole evolution and the combined matter density near galaxy centres.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

Spiral Density Waves and Torque Balance in the Kerr Geometry

Extreme mass-ratio inspirals (EMRIs) in relativistic accretion discs are a key science target for the upcoming LISA mission. Existing models of disc-EMRI interactions typically rely on crude dynamical friction or Newtonian planetary migration prescriptions, which fail to capture the relativistic fluid response induced by the binary potential. In this work we address this gap by providing the relativistic calculation. We apply standard methods from self-force theory, black hole perturbation theory, and relativistic stellar perturbation theory to perform the full fluid calculation of the relativistic analogue of planetary migration for the first time. We calculate the response of a fluid in the perturbing potential of an EMRI consistently incorporating pressure effects. Using a master enthalpy-like variable and linearised fluid theory, we reconstruct the fluid perturbations and relativistic spiral arm structure for a range of spin values in the Kerr geometry. We conclude by deriving a relativistic torque-balance equation that enables computation and comparison of local torques with advected angular momentum through the disc. This opens a promising route towards establishing torque-balance relations between integrated disc torques arising from fluid perturbations and the forces acting on EMRIs embedded in matter.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2026

The NANOGrav 15 yr Data Set: Targeted Searches for Supermassive Black Hole Binaries

We present the first targeted searches for continuous gravitational waves (CWs) from 114 active galactic nuclei (AGN) that may host supermassive black hole binaries, using the NANOGrav 15 yr data set. By incorporating electromagnetic priors on sky location, distance, redshift, and CW frequency, our strain and chirp mass upper limits are typically improved by a factor of $\sim 2$ (median 2.2) relative to all-sky limits at the same frequency. Bayesian comparisons against a model including only a Hellings-Downs correlated background disfavors a CW signal for all targets, with a mean Bayes factor of $0.73 \pm 0.32$. Two targets have Bayes factors slightly above unity, but coherence tests, random targeting experiments, and a conservative accounting of the 114-target trials factor all indicate that they are consistent with noise. We use these two candidates as worked examples to illustrate an end-to-end targeted CW search analysis and a suite of follow up tests that future promising candidates would need to pass. We find that the electromagnetic interpretations of both candidates are ambiguous, and we update the constraints on a putative binary in 3C 66B, ruling out part of its previously allowed parameter space. Ultimately, our results demonstrate the current sensitivity of targeted pulsar timing array searches for CWs and define a roadmap for future multimessenger CW detections.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

Importance of relativistic pericenter precession in identifying the presence of a third body near eccentric binaries

Many astrophysical processes can produce gravitational wave (GW) sources with significant orbital eccentricity. These binaries emit bursts of gravitational radiation during each pericenter passage. In isolated systems, the intrinsic timing of these bursts is solely determined by the properties of the binary. The presence of a nearby third body perturbs the system and alters the burst timing. Accurately modeling such perturbations therefore offers a novel approach to detecting the presence of a nearby companion. Existing timing models account for Newtonian dynamics and leading-order radiation reaction effects but neglect the higher order post-Newtonian (PN) contributions to the inner binary. In this paper, we present an improved timing model that incorporates conservative PN corrections that lead to the precession of the binary's pericenter. We find that these PN corrections significantly impact the binary's orbital evolution and the timing of the GW burst. In particular, 1PN precession gives rise to distinctive modulation features in the binary's semilatus rectum and eccentricity. These modulations encode valuable information about the presence and properties of the third body, including its mass and distance. Furthermore, unmodeled 1PN effects significantly bias the tertiary's mass and distance. Finally we assess the detectability of GW bursts from such perturbed systems and demonstrate that the inclusion of PN corrections is crucial for accurately capturing the orbital dynamics of hierarchical triples.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2025

Stellar Stripping and Disruption in Disks around Supermassive Black Hole Binaries: Repeating nuclear transients prior to LISA events

If supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs) are driven together by gas disks in galactic nuclei, then a surrounding nuclear star cluster or in-situ star-formation should deliver stars to the disk plane. Migration through the circumbinary disk will quickly bring stars to the edge of a low-density cavity cleared by the binary, where the stellar orbit becomes trapped and locked with the binary decay. Here we explore the scenario where the trapped stellar orbit decays with the binary until the binary tidally strips the star in a runaway process. For Sun-like stars, this occurs preferentially for $10^4-10^6 M_{\odot}$ SMBHBs, as the SMBHB enters the LISA band. We estimate that the runaway stripping process will generate Eddington-level X-ray flares repeating on hours-to-days timescales and lasting for decades. The flaring timescales and energetics of these circumbinary-disk tidal-disruption events (CBD-TDEs) match well with the recently discovered Quasi-Periodic Eruptions. However, the inferred rates of the two phenomena are in tension, unless low-mass SMBHB mergers are more common than expected. For less-dense stars, stripping begins earlier in the SMBHB inspiral, has longer repetition times, lasts longer, is dimmer, and can occur for more massive SMBHBs. Whether CBD-TDEs are a known or a yet-undiscovered class of repeating nuclear transients, they could provide a new probe of the elusive SMBH mergers in low mass / dwarf galaxies, which lie in the sweet-spot of the LISA sensitivity.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

The Era of Binary Supermassive Black Holes: Coordination of Nanohertz-Frequency Gravitational-Wave Follow-up

Here we summarize discussions and conclusions from the conference ``The Era of Binary Supermassive Black Holes: Coordination of Nanohertz-Frequency Gravitational-Wave Follow-up,'' held at the Aspen Center for Physics from February 2-7, 2025. The meeting facilitated a crucial knowledge exchange between electromagnetic and gravitational-wave theorists, observers, and cyber-infrastructure experts. The central goal was to guide the development of multi-messenger follow-up strategies for binary supermassive black hole detections by pulsar timing arrays. To build a common basis of understanding for the broader scientific community, this summary outlines the main considerations and recommendations from the meeting, summarizes the knowledge gaps identified, and ends with a potential roadmap to catalyze discussion about the search for electromagnetic counterparts to massive black hole binaries detected by pulsar timing arrays.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2025

The LISA Astrophysics "Disc-IMRI" Code Comparison Project: Intermediate-Mass-Ratio Binaries in AGN-Like Discs

Upcoming space-based gravitational wave detectors such as LISA, the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna, will be sensitive to extreme- and intermediate-mass-ratio inspirals (EMRIs and IMRIs). These binaries are comprised of a supermassive black hole and a stellar-mass object or intermediate-mass black hole. Their detection will probe the structure of galactic nuclei and enable tests of general relativity. As these events will be observed over thousands of orbital cycles, they will be extremely sensitive to both the underlying spacetime and astrophysical environment, demanding exquisite theoretical models on both fronts to avoid biased or even erroneous results. In particular, many (E/)IMRIs are expected to occur within accretion discs around supermassive black holes, and the nonlinearities present when modeling these systems require numerical simulations. In preparation for future modeling of LISA sources, we have conducted a comparison between eight different hydrodynamical codes and applied them to the problem of a q = 10^{-4} mass ratio binary interacting with an accretion disc. Thicker discs appear more lenient, and all codes at sufficiently high resolutions are in good agreement with each other and analytical predictions. For thinner discs, beyond the reach of analytical models, we find substantial disagreement between 2D and 3D simulations and between different codes, including both the magnitude and sign of the torque. With time and energy efficiency in mind, codes that leverage moving meshes or grid-based Lagrangian remapping seem preferable, as do codes that can leverage graphical processing units and other energy-efficient hardware.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

Hot, cold, and multi-component accretion flows around supermassive black hole binaries

We develop a model for supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs) accreting below their Eddington limit, focusing on systems where hot, advection-dominated flows become viable. We specifically explore the spectral appearance of multi-component accretion flows where the solution can independently transition between cold, thin disks and hot, advection-dominated torii depending on the local accretion rate. Using a three-disk model, we compute spectral energy distributions for four possible accretion configurations and assess their observational signatures, including which frequencies might reflect variability at the binary orbital period. The spectral modeling reveals that binary accretion can self-consistently account for many of the properties of standard AGN, while the variability analysis shows that hydrodynamic modulation at the binary period is most likely in the thermal emission and low-frequency synchrotron components. Doppler boosting of emitting material bound to a single binary component would also induce periodic variability. We apply our model to the SMBHB candidate PG1302-102 and demonstrate that a mixed-component accretion state (plus a jet feature) can self-consistently capture the observed broadband spectrum. Our model offers a framework for interpreting candidate SMBHBs and motivates future multi-wavelength follow-up of potential multi-messenger sources, as well as more detailed future modeling of multi-component binary accretion.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

Testing compact massive black hole binary candidates through multi-epoch spectroscopy

Emission from two massive black holes (MBHs) bound in a close binary is expected to be modulated by different processes, such as the Doppler boost due to the orbital motion, accretion rate variability generated by the interaction with a circumbinary disc, and binary gravitational self-lensing. When the binary is compact enough, the two black holes are thought to be surrounded by a common broad-line region that reprocesses the impinging periodically varying ionising flux, creating broad emission lines with variable line shapes. Therefore, the study of broad emission line variability through multi-epoch spectroscopic campaigns is of paramount importance for the unambiguous identification of a binary. In this work, we study the response of a disc-like broad-line region to the Doppler-boosted ionising flux emitted by sub-milliparsec MBH binaries on a circular orbit and compare it with the response of a broad-line region illuminated by a single MBH with a periodically but isotropically varying intrinsic luminosity. We show that in the binary case, the time lags of the blue and red wings of the broad emission lines, arising from diametrically opposite sides of the circumbinary disc, are out of phase by half of the binary's orbital period, as they each respond to the periodic "lighthouse" modulation from the binary's continuum emission. This asymmetric time lag represents a new binary signature that cannot be mimicked by a single MBH.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2025

Bridging the micro-Hz gravitational wave gap via Doppler tracking with the Uranus Orbiter and Probe Mission: Massive black hole binaries, early universe signals and ultra-light dark matter

With the recent announcement by NASA's \textit{Planetary Science and Astrobiology Decadal Survey 2023-2032}, a priority flagship mission to the planet Uranus is anticipated. Here, we explore the prospects of using the mission's radio Doppler tracking equipment to detect gravitational waves (GWs) and other analogous signals related to dark matter (DM) over the duration of its interplanetary cruise. We develop a methodology to stack tracking data and account for time varying detector geometry, thereby constructing the sensitivity of the mission to GWs over the wide frequency range of $3\times 10^{-9}$ Hz to $10^{-4}$ Hz. We find that the mission has the potential to fill the gap between pulsar timing and space-based-interferometry GW observatories. If improvements in reducing \textit{Cassini} era noise by a factor of $\sim$10 are implemented, we forecast the detection of $\mathcal{\mathcal{O}}(\rm{few})$ individual massive black hole binaries using two independent population models. Additionally, we determine the mission's sensitivity to both astrophysical and primordial stochastic gravitational wave backgrounds, as well as its capacity to test, or even confirm via detection, ultralight DM models. In all these cases, the tracking of the spacecraft over its interplanetary cruise would enable coverage of unexplored regions of parameter space, where signals from new phenomena in our Universe may be lurking.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

Dissecting environmental effects with eccentric gravitational wave sources

We model the effect of resonances between time-varying perturbative forces and the epi-cyclical motion of eccentric binaries in the gravitational wave (GW) driven regime. These induce secular drifts in the orbital elements which are reflected in a dephasing of the binary's GW signal, derived here systematically. The resulting dephasing prescriptions showcase a much richer phenomenology with respect to typically adopted power-laws, and are better able to model realistic environmental effects (EE). The most important consequences are for gas embedded binaries, which we analyse in detail with a series of analytical calculations, numerical experiments and a curated set of hydrodynamical simulations for equal masses. Even in these simplified tests, we find the surprising result that dephasing caused by epi-cyclical resonances dominate over expectations based on smoothed or orbit averaged gas drag models in GW signals that retain mild eccentricity in the detector band ($e> 0.05$). We discuss how dissecting GW dephasing in its component Fourier modes can be used to probe the coupling of binaries with their surrounding environment in unprecedented detail.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

Gaseous Dynamical Friction on Hyperbolic Scatterings

We present a study of equal-mass hyperbolic encounters, embedded in a uniform gaseous medium. Using linear perturbation theory, we calculate the density wakes excited by these perturbers and compute the resulting forces exerted on them by the gas. We compute the changes to orbital energy, orbital angular momentum and apsidal precession across a wide range of eccentrities and pericenter Mach numbers. We identify six distinct classes of hyperbolic orbits, differing through their wake structure and subsequent orbital evolution. We find the gas to always dissipate orbital energy, leading to smaller semi-major axes and higher pericenter Mach numbers. The orbital angular momentum can either increase or decrease, whereas we typically find the orbital eccentricity to be damped, promoting supersonic gas-captures. Additionally, we find that the force exerted by the gas is not strictly frictional -- particularly for asymptotically subsonic trajectories. Therefore, despite the orbit-integrated changes to orbital parameters being similar to those predicted by the \cite{O99} prescription, the time evolution of the density wakes and the instantaneous forces exerted on the perturbers are significantly different.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2025

Insights from Analytical Theory of Eccentric Circumbinary Disks

Eccentric cavities in circumbinary disks precess on timescales much longer than the binary orbital period. These long-lived steady states can be understood as trapped modes in an effective potential primarily determined by the binary quadrupole and the inner-disk pressure support, with associated frequencies $ω_Q$ and $ω_P$. Within this framework, we show that the ratio $ω_P/ω_Q$ is the main parameter determining the mode spectrum, and obtain a thorough understanding of it by systematically solving this problem with various degrees of sophistication. We first find analytical solutions for truncated power-law disks and use this insight in disks with smooth central cavities. Our main findings are: (i) The number of modes increases for thinner disks and more-equal-mass binaries. (ii) For 2D disks, the normalized ground-mode frequency, $ω_0/(ω_Q+ω_P)$, decreases monotonically with the ratio $ω_P/ω_Q$. (iii) For thin disks, $ω_P\llω_Q$, the ground-mode frequency coincides with the maximum of the effective potential, which tracks the gravitational quadrupole frequency inside the inner-disk cavity, and is thus rather sensitive to the density profile of the cavity, where these modes are localized. (iv) For thick disks, $ω_P\ggω_Q$, increasing pressure support anchors the peak of the effective potential at the inner cavity radius as the ground-mode extends farther out and its frequency decreases. (v) In agreement with numerical simulations, with $ω_P/ω_Q \simeq 0.1$, we find that disk precession is rather insensitive to the density profile and ground-mode frequencies for 3D disks are about half the value for 2D disks.

astro-ph.SR↗